Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Congo Line]

Bought some more Nov20 $450 calls @ $22.65. Was looking to sell not buy more of these today, but I guess we'll lower avg cost and shift out that sale a week or two. What's wrong with these people?

Question on taxes: My only other concern about a potential runup on this 3Q earnings is around tax policy. Is a Biden victory a potential selloff for TSLA shareholders who've made a ton and need to take the tax hit? Do they then immediately rebuy or wait for the New Year?

Here is what the Biden campaign webpage says about taxes (relevant to your question):

• Asking those making more than $1 million to pay the same rate on investment income that they do on their wages.

So, if this is the only change made, then the long-term capital gains tax of 20% would remain the same, unless you have > $1M in annual income.

 

[StealthP3D]

Spent the last bit of dry powder i had on Monday. Ducati is looking a bit dusty might need sell it to fund more shares

There are some things nobody needs in this world, and a bright-red, hunch-back, warp-speed 900cc cafe racer is one of them - but I want one anyway, and on some days I actually believe I need one. That is why they are dangerous.

Hunter S. Thompson

 

[woodisgood]

I guess if you're gonna sell Oct30 calls @ $500 for $1.35.....I'ma have to buy some!

People are clearly expecting the markets to hesitate significantly until after the election is decided without mass chaos.

TSLA isn’t immune to this no matter what they do.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm just gonna leave this here.


EDIT: as we've seen in the past, the SP appreciation mostly comes a few trading days after the good news. Next week should be good.

It largely followed macros, stayed green while everything else went red, followed the macros back up — stay tuned for the remainder of the day, but currently you called nothing as this isn’t sell the news at this point.

 

[KMCC]

BUY THE

View attachment 601267

Just bought 40 more!

 

[Krugerrand]

Concur fully. I can easily afford FSD at 10k, but the frugal side of me says "nope, I don't drive enough to justify that".

But, I guess there are enough people out there that will buy this. There are tons of people with $1000+ phones, and I don't spend remotely close to that on phones.

You’ll change your mind if you ever have a seizure, heart event, become disabled or otherwise get old enough they tell you you’re not fit to drive anymore and want to pull your license.

Or be perfectly okay with that and wheelchair yourself to your colonoscopy date, hernia or cataract surgery et al...

 

[lafrisbee]

TEN investment firms raise their price or their position on TSLA and the stock is up 2%. Yeah? No manipulation?

 

[StealthP3D]

if the s curve ramp up to 21 mil is correct. Then in 5 years the stock will do another 10x.

Only counting automotive. Once you make basic assumptions for solar and energy storage that 10X prediction will prove to be quaint in 5 years.

1st of such event we saw the creation of Teslanairs
This time, we see a massive quitting of TMC ppl from their regular jobs.
What will the TMC mass event in 5 years be? We all buy an island?

Islands are so old-fashioned and boring. The view from a satellite condo is where it's at. Enjoy it before the Space Pirates show up!

or, a time-lapse video:
https://dlmultimedia.esa.int/download/public/videos/2017/09/030/1709_030_AR_EN.mp4

 

[Krugerrand]

There is moaning from this forum after every call. What did you expect people? CNBEEC would call Musk the greatest guy after Bobby Fisher? Shorts would suddenly disappear? Price would go up 10%+ in a day?

Yet, there are still the ones that loaded up well below $200 or so. They get it.

As long as the Cenbc exist they will not be good to us. As long as tools (GJ/Kolodny/Jonas/...etc) exist and get paid for their services we'll not see a good word.

Did you really expect that analysts would proclaim FSD a miracle and the price would go up 200% today?

Well, keep moaning.

I was hopeful mankind would grow a brain overnight. Without that hope I’d sequester myself away on a private mountain top — never mind, point taken.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I guess if you're gonna sell Oct30 calls @ $500 for $1.35.....I'ma have to buy some!

I'll take some more at $1.20, thank you very much. These are obviously home run calls, but it's looking like stimulus is at least gonna move to the Senate this week. A macro juicing could be the gasoline on the fire next week.

Don't give me Battery Day then this quarter and try to tell me SP can't drift up 10% from the pre-battery Day close!

 

[NicoV]

TEN investment firms raise their price or their position on TSLA and the stock is up 2%. Yeah? No manipulation?

We’ve been saying for years not to listen to those investment firms, and now that the people are listening (edit: to us) you’re complaining?

 

[Artful Dodger]

this price action looks familiar[...] that's from July 22nd. the following trading day was negative. The stock was up 65% within a month.

SP was dn -14% from Jul 22 to Aug 11 (the day the Stock Dividend was announced).

SP was up +81% from Aug 11 to Aug 31 (the day the $5B Cap Raise was announced).

Earnings can be safely ignored by MMs/hedgies. In fact, they now HABITUALLY pounce on good news.

Something, something, naked short selling... Only another Stock Split reins them in.

Word.

 

[bkp_duke]

Only counting automotive. Once you make basic assumptions for solar and energy storage that 10X prediction will prove to be quaint in 5 years.



Islands are so old-fashioned and boring. The view from a satellite condo is where it's at. Enjoy it before the Space Pirates show up!

or, a time-lapse video:
https://dlmultimedia.esa.int/download/public/videos/2017/09/030/1709_030_AR_EN.mp4

Too much radiation. I'll pass.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Islands are so old-fashioned and boring. The view from a satellite condo is where it's at. Enjoy it before the Space Pirates show up!

I bet you could buy a half-built Neom for next to nothing once the Saudi Royal Family loses power in 2024. Rent out villas to other TSLA owners. Would be hilariously ironic.

 

[Krugerrand]

With all the Tesla HATE out there, there is NO WAY I'm renting out my car. This "proposition" never made sense to me unless you could replace the seats with some really cheap material, etc.

I know how my family treats a rental, and we are worse to Taxi's.

Nope, no way in hell I'm renting out my cars.

With all the Tesla HATE out there, there is NO WAY I'm renting out my car. This "proposition" never made sense to me unless you could replace the seats with some really cheap material, etc.

I know how my family treats a rental, and we are worse to Taxi's.

Nope, no way in hell I'm renting out my cars.

Interesting. My parents taught me to respect other people’s property. I treat rental cars as I treat my own. Of course, I have posted about driving my car like I stole it and I’m pretty sure I posted I’m looking forward to never having to wash my CYBRTRCK and planning on using the crap out of it, using up 12 parking spots at the store —

I’m pretty sure I had a moral and ethical point to make but failed.

 

[insaneoctane]

Well, this morning I told my wife about FSD being released in beta.

She demands DEMANDS that I sell every share.
She is sure this will bankrupt Tesla after the first accident.

Time for me to disappear to the cabin.

Hmmm. It might create a good buying opportunity though.

 

[jbcarioca]

Here is what the Biden campaign webpage says about taxes (relevant to your question):

• Asking those making more than $1 million to pay the same rate on investment income that they do on their wages.

So, if this is the only change made, then the long-term capital gains tax of 20% would remain the same, unless you have > $1M in annual income.

Tax policy ideas are far from implementation. There are positive and negative features for renewables, corporations and individuals. There is no way to predict exactly what impact there may be. However, I agree that no material negative consequence is proposed for anybody with AGI less than $400,000. The combination of renewable, BEV and infrastructure proposals would, if enacted, result in a mixed outlook for TSLA shareholders even with AGI >$ one million.
My tax attorney, very dedicated R, says he will not even guess the balance of effects for his clients in this category. In abundance of caution some of such clients have taken a few long term gains this year.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I checked my crystal ball, and FSD will drag this SP down for a while, maybe a year. There is much to be played on the inherent fear of no control + no knowlege.
The pop will happen when least expected. I'm sitting tight for now, not going to miss this one either. If anything, when we survive elections and pandemic impact is realized, I'm going all in. Extreme value proposition here, realized eventually.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hey, what if Tesla uses our driving data from Insurance research to filter out poor drivers, and gradually add only safer ones for now to manage risk. (Funny how I feel like this is tampering with evolution...)
I'm sure I'll be on it soon! No really, am that good.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I checked my crystal ball, and FSD will drag this SP down for a while, maybe a year. There is much to be played on the inherent fear of no control + no knowlege.
The pop will happen when least expected. I'm sitting tight for now, not going to miss this one either. If anything, when we survive elections and pandemic impact is realized, I'm going all in. Extreme value proposition here, realized eventually.

I actually think the opposite. Smart money is going to be pilling in...albeit in a way to try and accumulate without shooting the share price if possible. But that may not work anyways because S&P inclusion will happen sometimes over the next quarter or two which will effectively take Tesla share price into another price level from where it is today.

Smart money is always ahead of the general investment community and especially Wall St and it's analysts. I don't really know how anyone could be worried about tesla share price going lower at this point. It may stagnate for a while long as long as volume stays low, but there's practically no way it's going lower.

S&P inclusion at some point in the next 2 quarters
Q4 earnings and P/D blowout
2021 Guidance
FSD rollout and march of 9's throughout 2021
Multiple factories coming online

No matter how much manipulation there is, the series of catalysts over the next few months is way too much for the stock to go down from here.