Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

It was a crazy complimentary rant. So good.

Yes. Moreover, he's got Lenin's picture in the middle of his background.

 

[Sofie]

I know I have said this before, but I just had to comment and say how PROUD I am of this company!
I keep listening to the earnings report over and over again and just glow with pride! I’m so excited, more excited than ever, to watch Tesla take off. I’m humbled to own a just a small sliver and loving every minute of it!

 

[st_lopes]

Nor on FSD
Nor on Tesla Network
Nor on Insurance
Nor on The Boring Company scaling to use a ton of Teslas
Nor on Electric Aircraft
Nor on Electric Boats
Nor on HVAC
Nor on Distributed Dojo
Nor on a potential GPU business to compete with Nvidia
Nor on helping other companies manufacture stuff (RNA/DNA, others)
etc. etc. etc.

Nor on the fact that Tesla has custom built the backbone of their internal tech infra structure. For those of you keeping track, that’s where AWS started.

 

[phantasms]

Nor on the fact that Tesla has custom built the backbone of their internal tech infra structure. For those of you keeping track, that’s where AWS started.

Yeah that part was fascinating.

 

[EVortex]

no i’m saying that states don’t allow insurance companies to deviate from the entrenched method of applying insurance premiums to customers

(basically tesla’s going to say, our model works better due to the data we obtain, it’s more logistically sound, it’s rooted in data and facts not actuary tables...insurance regulations will say no, or prove it, or scream privacy, or...name it)

but before i get too far ahead of myself, i know zip about the topic.
only enough from my conversation yesterday that insurance won’t be a slam dunk - and it deserves a thread that can be developed and fine tuned over time

well, not a jordan slam dunk.
and sure as hell hopefully not a george tenet slam dunk
(sorry george, if you’re reading)

Insurance companies can create rating factors from any data points, subject to state regulations. Lack of available data points have prevented more specific premium rates in the past.

 

[scaesare]

I think you need to understand that majority of people can't just whip out a credit card and charge $8000 on it.

I'm unsure why a subset of people being unable to afford something makes it inappropriate to price it at it's perceived value.

 

[Bet TSLA]

This guy being let go is a can of nothing.

Because gross insults of Tesla employees is somehow okay?

 

[FireMedic]

no i’m saying that states don’t allow insurance companies to deviate from the entrenched method of applying insurance premiums to customers

(basically tesla’s going to say, our model works better due to the data we obtain, it’s more logistically sound, it’s rooted in data and facts not actuary tables...insurance regulations will say no, or prove it, or scream privacy, or...name it)

but before i get too far ahead of myself, i know zip about the topic.
only enough from my conversation yesterday that insurance won’t be a slam dunk - and it deserves a thread that can be developed and fine tuned over time.

IMHO, and with no offense to your friend, that’s like talking to FORD about difficulties to ramp battery production or FSD. If you’re in an industry that’s being disrupted, it can be challenging to disengage from the ‘reality you live in’. If I’ve learned one thing around here it’s to never bet against Elon. Not suggesting that’s what you’re doing btw...just a statement of my reality.

 

[Boomer19]

IMHO, and with no offense to your friend, that’s like talking to FORD about difficulties to ramp battery production or FSD. If you’re in an industry that’s being disrupted, it can be challenging to disengage from the ‘reality you live in’. mid I’ve learned one thing around here it’s to never bet against Elon. Not suggesting that’s what you’re doing btw...just a statement of my reality.

this was a reinsurer. even insurers need insurance.
and i understand that point of view. that’s where i started as well. i’m just saying it’s a tough nut to crack. obv not the hardest thing they’ll achieve given time...
i’m only divulging that in the hopes of avoiding lots of commentary about the enormous prospects of teslasurance. it’s a ways off

 

[UCF3]

I think Ryan McCaffrey and others who have been pounding the drum for a FSD subscription service are going to be shocked when they see the monthly price. Elon and Zach warned people in April that FSD would be cheapest if bought upfront.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

So in the earnings call Elon said this about insurance

'Obviously, insurance is substantial. So insurance could very well be, I don't know, 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.'

He actually said 'I don't know' right there so he probably took a wild guess on the spot. But it made me curious since it seemed really high so I figured I'd try some math on it. Either I'm missing something or Elon is overestimating quite a bit.

So here's my calculation.

20 million cars at something like $30k average in 2030 is $600 billion a year in car revenue. That's without any FSD.

If Tesla makes 20 million cars a year in 2030 it will probably have something like 150 million cars in use in 2035. 5x20 + the ones built in the ramp up. That's 15 years from now.

Lets say Tesla can get 50% of Teslas to insure with them. Unless they get into insuring houses and everything else that will be incredible hard to get close to.

So in 2035 they would then have 75 million cars insured. First answer from google says 'The average annual cost of car insurance in the United States is $1,416. Lets round that to $1,500, Teslas are nice cars. That would give $112 billion in revenue.

So 112 compared to 600 is almost 20%. BUT. In most countries in the world car insurance is a lot cheaper. I googled five countries in Europe. They were all between $500-600 on average. Let's say the world outside the US has a $500 average. With US sales around 25% of world sales the world average would be something like $750. Then it would be $56 billion. Which would be less than 10% of the car business. It would be even less every year until then starting from very little now.

Granted, in another 15 years, 2050 or so Tesla could have 400 million cars on the road. With 50% take rate they would have 200 million insured for a staggering $150 billion. Which would be 25%

But that is 30 years out assuming a lot. Including autonomous cars not bringing insurance costs way down. Which seems unlikely in itself.

 

[EVortex]

this was a reinsurer. even insurers need insurance.
and i understand that point of view. that’s where i started as well. i’m just saying it’s a tough nut to crack. obv not the hardest thing they’ll achieve given time...
i’m only divulging that in the hopes of avoiding lots of commentary about the enormous prospects of teslasurance. it’s a ways off

Insurance has always been a late adopter of new ideas and technology - sort of the opposite of disruptive. It’s ripe for the picking, but there are many hurdles, especially around regulation.

 

[Mo City]

Because gross insults of Tesla employees is somehow okay?

I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I think Ryan McCaffrey and others who have been pounding the drum for a FSD subscription service are going to be shocked when they see the monthly price. Elon and Zach warned people in April that FSD would be cheapest if bought upfront.

Maybe it'll be be one of those things that can only be bought in month long intervals, and buying it per month is significantly more expensive than a year version, which is still more expensive for like 5 years than buying upfront.

So, like, $200/mo monthly, $2000 yearly, and in 5 years will cost $10k.

 

[Robocop]

Maybe it'll be be one of those things that can only be bought in month long intervals, and buying it per month is significantly more expensive than a year version, which is still more expensive for like 5 years than buying upfront.

So, like, $200/mo monthly, $2000 yearly, and in 5 years will cost $10k.

Yeah I think if FSD is $10k now, $200/mo may be the minimum price. I'm planning on getting full FSD when I get a model Y, but I can't imagine the subscription will make financial sense. Maybe for lease folks?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Hey, what if Tesla uses our driving data from Insurance research to filter out poor drivers, and gradually add only safer ones for now to manage risk. (Funny how I feel like this is tampering with evolution...)
I'm sure I'll be on it soon! No really, am that good.

Who knows how that will work. I’m on a road trip through California right now and if you don’t drive 20 mph over the speed limit you risk getting run over.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Still really no media on the FSD stuff yet. Maybe the market really is just ignorant to it right now?

Could they be that stupid?

(Yes).

Have you not been paying attention?

 

[Boomer19]

I think Ryan McCaffrey and others who have been pounding the drum for a FSD subscription service are going to be shocked when they see the monthly price. Elon and Zach warned people in April that FSD would be cheapest if bought upfront.

people should stop complaining on twitter, really

mind you, these aren’t complaints about a faulty product, or bad service for a product they paid for

it’s about the lead time for a price change which elon has been choreographing and commenting about for a year and a half

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I think Ryan McCaffrey and others who have been pounding the drum for a FSD subscription service are going to be shocked when they see the monthly price. Elon and Zach warned people in April that FSD would be cheapest if bought upfront.

That really depends on what time span they choose to look at.

They could be saying a Tesla will last 20 years. If you pay $10k next week that would be $40/month. What's considerably more than that? 25% extra is $50/month. They could do that without having lied about the price going up.

Now if they go with 10 years which seems somewhat more likely to me it would be $80/month and a 25% increase would be $100/month.

Some posters seem to think the actual price will go to $100k or something wild. That's not gonna happen. No one that is not putting their car into full time robotaxi would pay that. No one.

There will be a separate price for Robotaxi use. Otherwise Tesla will not maximize their profit. If you buy now you'll probably be grandfathered into using your FSD for robotaxi though. Congrats. Great deal.

But for everyone else who is not interested in using their car as a robotaxi the price will not go higher than what the sweet spot between take rate and cost is for maximum profit. That is not $100k, it's not $50k, it's probably not $20k either. I think it's actually around $10k-15k. That's for personal use (no taxi) of the car.

Even this price hike and the wording that subscriptions will come next year seems to indicate that there is likely only one more price hike coming before subscriptions are here.

I absolutely think you will be able to eventually get FSD for less than $100/month. It'll probably take a yearly subscription. Once (if) there are eventually competent rivals it will quickly be a lot cheaper than that. Even if not I think the price , again for private use, will at some point start going down instead of up.

A $100/month if people pay that as long as it's drive-able, presumably around 20 years, through numerous owners, would be $24k for Tesla.

 

[pz1975]

I think Tesla owners will have a major edge against Wall St. when/if FSD reaches level 5 and a Robotaxi network becomes inevitable. It will likely take weeks for Wall St. to come to this realization as YouTube videos and reports trickle in. Us Tesla owners will see it, be amazed by it, and wonder why TSLA isn’t going up like it should be. We need to remember this and use that lag time to load up on more TSLA (and call options if one is educated in them) before the inevitable valuation increase happens.

I look at this like the way TSLA floundered between 2018-2019 when it was so obvious to me (and most here) that Tesla had turned the corner and the stock price didn’t reflect the obvious profitable future for the company. I was frustrated and confused by it many times, but just kept loading up more TSLA and it has paid off handsomely now.

The FSD jump won’t take as long as that IMO but I am quite confident there will be some period of time when the real TSLA valuation based on FSD achievement and the actual stock price will disconnect until Wall St. wakes up. Many more Teslanaires will be made in that period.

I wrote this post 2 weeks ago. We don’t have full FSD yet but I think it’s relevant to what has been demonstrated in the last 24 hours. As expected, MSM and wall st are completely oblivious to what is happening. Once they realize it the SP will respond but this is the time we have our edge. Buy and HODL appropriately. I personally bought a lot more shares and LEAPs today. My goal is to become a 20-Teslanaire.