Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

What is HODL ?

 

[StealthP3D]

So in the earnings call Elon said this about insurance

'Obviously, insurance is substantial. So insurance could very well be, I don't know, 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.'

He actually said 'I don't know' right there so he probably took a wild guess on the spot. But it made me curious since it seemed really high so I figured I'd try some math on it. Either I'm missing something or Elon is overestimating quite a bit.

Elon was estimating the total amount of the insurance business relative to car sales, not the amount of the business he hoped to capture. A businessman always looks at the size of the total market first. And, yes, it was a wild ass guess - I have no idea how accurate it was except to say in the most general terms that, yes, insurance is a HUGE market.

 

[pz1975]

What is HODL ?

Meme: Hold On for Dear Life

 

[Boomer19]

What is HODL ?

means hold

Hodl - Wikipedia

 

[mltv]

Nio Reportedly Working On In-House Self-Driving Chips

Is NIO following Tesla footstep or capitalize on hype generated by Tesla?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Kinda OT but there’s a new shirt available in the Tesla Shop. Sums up my reaction to Q3 results. haha yes

 

[LN1_Casey]

Kinda OT but there’s a new shirt available in the Tesla Shop. Sums up my reaction to Q3 results. haha yes

View attachment 601506

I saw those earlier. I'd buy two today, for my guy and me, but I don't have an address to currently ship to!

 

[Big Time]

Can the bollinger bands get any closer?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Can the bollinger bands get any closer?

Yes. Check out May-July.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

TipRanks: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/philippe-houchois

CNBC International - 2 hours ago:

Imagine that.

A 4.5-star ranking and an intelligent analyst speaking highly of TSLA . . . pretty much the EXACT opposite of the Johnson character (in both regards).

 

[Beltsbear]

So in the earnings call Elon said this about insurance

'Obviously, insurance is substantial. So insurance could very well be, I don't know, 30%, 40% of the value of the car business, frankly.'

He actually said 'I don't know' right there so he probably took a wild guess on the spot. But it made me curious since it seemed really high so I figured I'd try some math on it. Either I'm missing something or Elon is overestimating quite a bit.

So here's my calculation.

20 million cars at something like $30k average in 2030 is $600 billion a year in car revenue. That's without any FSD.

If Tesla makes 20 million cars a year in 2030 it will probably have something like 150 million cars in use in 2035. 5x20 + the ones built in the ramp up. That's 15 years from now.

Lets say Tesla can get 50% of Teslas to insure with them. Unless they get into insuring houses and everything else that will be incredible hard to get close to.

So in 2035 they would then have 75 million cars insured. First answer from google says 'The average annual cost of car insurance in the United States is $1,416. Lets round that to $1,500, Teslas are nice cars. That would give $112 billion in revenue.

So 112 compared to 600 is almost 20%. BUT. In most countries in the world car insurance is a lot cheaper. I googled five countries in Europe. They were all between $500-600 on average. Let's say the world outside the US has a $500 average. With US sales around 25% of world sales the world average would be something like $750. Then it would be $56 billion. Which would be less than 10% of the car business. It would be even less every year until then starting from very little now.

Granted, in another 15 years, 2050 or so Tesla could have 400 million cars on the road. With 50% take rate they would have 200 million insured for a staggering $150 billion. Which would be 25%

But that is 30 years out assuming a lot. Including autonomous cars not bringing insurance costs way down. Which seems unlikely in itself.

Getting 50% of the market would require lower then average pricing. Insurance costs most people less then $1500 a year. That is double what I pay. I think you have almost doubled the value the insurance business It’s probably only 10% of the car market or less. There could be good synergies though when having everything be computerized and the standing Tesla account for payment.

 

[Todesbuckler]

There seems to be a recall of 29.000 Model S and X vehicles in China produced until 2017.

Source: Tesla to recall 29,193 Model S, X in China - regulator

Let's see what exactly the issue is and if an OTA fix might work.

 

[Rammstein]

Anybody notice Elon getting rid of the PR department and then release FSD. Why would he do that? Did he want to sneak FSD out so we would know before. His real investors?

 

[CyberDutchie]

A colleague from Germany claims that by recording and uploading video clips of pedestrians to a server in the US, Tesla is violating privacy laws in Europe (GDPR).

Anyone here share this concern?

He’s saying that local authorities are already looking into that. A number of large corporations in Europe would enjoy doing damage to Tesla.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Bio weapon defence mode coming to Y.


Tesla software leak reveals HEPA filter with Bioweapon Defense Mode coming to Model Y - Electrek


Maybe air suspension too...

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

A colleague from Germany claims that by recording and uploading video clips of pedestrians to a server in the US, Tesla is violating privacy laws in Europe (GDPR).

Anyone here share this concern?

He’s saying that local authorities are already looking into that. A number of large corporations in Europe would enjoy doing damage to Tesla.

How does google get around this in Europe For street view ?

could Tesla do the same ?

 

[kengchang]

A colleague from Germany claims that by recording and uploading video clips of pedestrians to a server in the US, Tesla is violating privacy laws in Europe (GDPR).

Anyone here share this concern?

He’s saying that local authorities are already looking into that. A number of large corporations in Europe would enjoy doing damage to Tesla.

Already debunked like a month ago

 

[StealthP3D]

He’s saying that local authorities are already looking into that. A number of large corporations in Europe would enjoy doing damage to Tesla.

It's not clear how that could damage Tesla in any significant fashion.

 

[Ameliorate]

Bio weapon defence mode coming to Y.


Tesla software leak reveals HEPA filter with Bioweapon Defense Mode coming to Model Y - Electrek


Maybe air suspension too...

Nice! I would love to see this feature in Cybertruck.

 

[kanweg]

Would Tesla be breaking that law or the posters?
If an iPhone were used, would it be Apple that is breaking that law?