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Grace Tao, who is a Tesla executive in Shanghai shared this image on Weibo:

model-3-china.jpg


According to Teslarati 7,000 Made-in-China Tesla Model 3 will be starting their journey to Europe tomorrow.

Source: Tesla China holds ceremony to commemorate first 7K Model 3 exports to Europe
 
I don't believe the OP meant individual cars. But I'm pretty sure a disengagement shows in the logs which can be parsed and eventually followed up on.

As the post you quote mentions- those reports contain very little of use for "fixing" the specific disengagement-

On the current wide-release versions of firmware, when you disengage only a very very tiny report goes to Tesla- No pictures, no video, just location is coordinates, how did you disengage (brake, wheel, stalk), speed, heading and time. That's it. Under 1kb of data in the report.

It could be useful to tell Tesla "Many cars have trouble at this one GPS location" or even "Many cars have trouble at this location if they're going more than X speed" but nothing is "learned" about correcting whatever the issue is simply by disengagement.

If Tesla decides that spot has a real problem it can then actively send out a campaign to collect useful data there- but it can collect that data (photos, video, etc) REGARDLESS of if the driver has FSD or not, and regardless of if the driver manually disengages at that spot or not.

It's part of why folks thinking they need to make FSD super cheap so Tesla can collect more data are misguided- the actual "train the NN" data they need can be collected from a car regardless of if you paid for FSD- it's one of the huge fleet advantages Tesla has.


No, the illusion fooling people is that "no intervention ever" is the only acceptable state of affairs.
Because no driver ever has needed any outside help on the road. Ever, not a single one.

Truth is this is pure FUD..


And yet in the last couple pages we have folks telling us how once Tesla solves FSD somehow BOTH of these will happen:

Folks will stop wanting to personally own cars since RTs can take them everwhere
and
Folks will spend 100k on owning a Tesla since it has FSD.


I'm a bit surprised at all the shock and amazement at what the beta FSD release can do.

I'm not at all surprised by the system working pretty well most of the time.

I AM surprised by folks who think working 90% of the time means it'll easily work 99.9999% of the time Real Soon Now with Just A Little Training. Or people who think software can magically fix blinded-by-dirt-or-weather hardware.

Because that's now how any of this stuff works.

Even Elon, who's always exceedingly time optimistic, has said it's likely at least another year before it does some things "well" that it "can" do now.


I'
By the way, I've seen a couple of videos which indicate that speed bumps are already solved. This leaves statements like "Speed bumps will need to be learned also." looking less than brilliant.

Since there's also videos showing it going right over them without slowing down as well, it's nonsense to claim they're "solved"

They are, at best, "working on it"

I never meant the individual car. I still believe that once the training labels road debris as a non-drivable area and it's uploaded to the fleet the problem will be solved.

There's that "solved" word again- I do not think it means what you folks think it means.

1) There's an almost unlimited # of things that could be road debris. It's not a single thing to train against. (Here fleet size can help a lot to bring back many examples, though it'll still be incomplete for a long while)

2) What do you DO once the car can see the lane it's in as suddenly undriveable a very short distance ahead? THAT needs to be programed- and for a variety of scenarios... Do you swerve into another lane? Which one (if there's a choice)? Do you narrowly (but pretty sure you can make it) cut someone off to do it? Do you brake instead? Do you drive onto the shoulder to avoid it?

It's certainly addressable, and I'd 100% expect them to address it... but it's very very far from a simple or easy fix.



Clarification: car performance can improve due to changes other than the NN.

Agree that the Neural Net does not self update on a per car basis.
However: the camera mapping/ merging parameters must update/ calibrate on a per car basis. If a driving issue was due to poor blending, re-driving an area that exposes the mismatch could improve the blend and drive performance. (Tight curves/ intersections/ roundabouts could fall into this category)

Not quite clear what you're saying here? other than camera calibration (because cameras might physically be very very very slightly different positions from one car to another) nothing is car-specific

Clar
Potentially, the map/ hint data set could self update locally as part of the fleet learning algorithm or a 'things I've seen' cache, but that's theoretical.

Nothing updates locally/uniquely like that- maps are pushed from the mothership just like regular firmware (though not updated as often to this point- wouldn't shock me if we start seeing faster map updates going forward though.)
 
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No, it absolutely is not. That's a myth.

Individual cars never ever learn. (troubleshoot'd be a nightmare for one thing- nor does the car have remotely the power, or tech, to label and train NNs onboard)

Changes in behavior only happen with firmware updates from Tesla- all AI learning/training happens back at HQ.

On the current wide-release versions of firmware, when you disengage only a very very tiny report goes to Tesla- No pictures, no video, just location is coordinates, how did you disengage (brake, wheel, stalk), speed, heading and time. That's it. Under 1kb of data in the report.

Useful to tell them "Hey AP has trouble with this one location" when a lot of reports in the same spot come in, but that's it.

YES, THIS!

I don't know how many "AP bug reports" actually have an impact at Tesla, but please do send them via your voice commands.
 
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Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options.
Ooops. Guess I should have read your post instead of dinking around on Etrade. Sorry I disobeyed (or maybe not, I'll report back in 1, 2 and 4 months.)
 
YES, THIS!

I don't know how many "AP bug reports" actually have an impact at Tesla, but please do send them via your voice commands.


"regular" bug reports- the voice command ones- are useless for this stuff.

They don't get sent to Tesla at all. They sit locally on the car until they time out and are auto-deleted- and nobody ever looks at them at all unless you open a service ticket via the app- at which point a service center guy can read them remotely from the car. They are essentially just a bookmark in the logs for service to reference when diagnosing a service ticket.


AP Bug Reports- using that special camera icon that usually only early-access folks have- THAT data is potentially actually sent to Tesla and used to fix issues- so by all means use that one as much as possible when appropriate.
 
I'm a bit surprised at all the shock and amazement at what the beta FSD release can do. Elon's been pretty clear about its capabilities and yet apparently hardly anybody here believed him. If even the ardent fans here didn't believe, then you can be sure that nobody else anywhere did. That means that none of this whatsoever is priced in. And it won't be for quite a while, as beliefs change slowly.

I'm also a bit surprised at the level of stupid and non-comprehending skepticism. Up until now, the system has been half blind. Now it can see. If it can see stuff accurately, then it can learn to react to it. It's no harder to learn to react to speed bumps or potholes than it is to react to stop signs or speed limits, probably easier. Certainly easier than bicyclists. So why does anybody think it will take a long time to learn these things? They're the easy stuff. For one thing, they don't move.

Anyway, can we try to be less stupid? Or at least hold off on posting opinions on stuff you don't know anything about?

By the way, I've seen a couple of videos which indicate that speed bumps are already solved. This leaves statements like "Speed bumps will need to be learned also." looking less than brilliant.

One note: I certainly think cyclists and other moving objects should be easier to detect than static objects.

I am most concerned about odd-shaped static objects which trick vision / radar into misestimating size / location / density.

If we improvement to where these issues essentially go away, I think the main bottlenecks will have been removed.
 
I'll repeat this again for effect: Nobody will pay $100K for FSD software per vehicle. Not now, not ever. Elon never said this would happen.

Tesla is beginning a production ramp that is going to take everyone's breath away. If FSD graduates from beta and becomes a driverless product, there will instantly be tens of millions of FSD Teslas on the road well before annual production reaches 20M. The more autonomous vehicles become commonplace, the less autonomy as a product will cost. Your $100K is a pipe dream.

Elon said one day everybody will have autonomy and Tesla's main advantage will become production. In other words, autonomy won't even be a distinguishing factor for Tesla.

Do you get it now?

What do you think a business managing a robotaxi fleet would be willing to pay per car?
 
Paging @Artful Dodger

From Tesla's 10-Q:

On September 1, 2020, we entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement with certain sales agents to sell $5.00 billion in shares of our common stock from time to time through an “at-the-market” offering program. Such sales were completed by September 4, 2020 and settled by September 9, 2020, with the sale of 11,141,562 shares of common stock resulting in gross proceeds of $5.00 billion and net proceeds of $4.97 billion, net of sales agents’ commissions of $25 million and other offering costs of $1 million.

That would be an average share price of $448.77 on the cap raise. I believe you had called a mid-400s average?