Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Yegads, I'm in the same boat, but once again Tesla is bonkers with its pricing. For those of us that took them up on the EAP interim upgrade way back in ye olden days of checks notes one month ago, there's a $1k penalty to complete the upgrade to FSD compared to those that simply held their money until this month. (FSD from base is $8k, while base to EAP in Sept is $4k + $5k = $9k). It's one thing when Tesla raises the prices on those who didn't buy before a certain date. It's entirely another when they raise prices on those who did while not raising them on those who did not buy.

I too have been tempted, but am opting to keep the powder dry for TSLA shares instead (still short of my long-term goal).

 

[lafrisbee]

I've asked her (and @Fact Checking) several times, but he'd only come back if she did, and she won't as the one that drove her away is still present and AFAIK never offered an apology of any kind either.

LOOK! Tell her I got the same bullcrap that she did. And have come to understand it wasn't just the Moderator. From what I have gathered the Mod's were constrained by the format of this forum and some blind guidelines they were told to follow. It was quite frustrating to me to have to try and communicate with the moderators because they were over-stressed by the amount of Moderating they had to do AND the limited communication imposed constraints causing all sorts of reactions the mods received from those who felt that they were unfairly and incorrectly dealt with.
As a newbie to the board I felt like the Mod's were just dicks, and had always been dicks. Then I gathered a little information and felt more like it was just one Mod that was a dick. Finally I came to see that the Mods just had a tough job, and they were not happy with what they needed to do IF they had to do it within the constraints they were given. So that caused them to even come off as even more dick-ish.
But now I can see them as pretty good people. I even get a kick out of them posting one of their "Admonishment Posts" like "No more fart talk" lol, or Banishing someone to the great void for mentioning a series of numbers that our fearless leader still finds quite entertaining...
Hey, send her my post.
The biggest thing any of us wants to do in life is make people happy, really happy is even a cooler thing to make people feel. And me, and so many others she knows better than me would be extremely happy to have her and Factchecking back. That should far outweigh her negative feelings towards the untasteful communications (or lack of) that transpired back then?
We miss her.
STILL.

 

[S3XY]

Spring Forward, Fall Back.

Are you referring to the clocks or the daily SP for the last month?

 

[S3XY]

No idea, but I do know the price they actually pay will be the same as consumers.

My wild guess is the price of FSD would be ~$20K if Tesla is the only OEM selling large numbers of driverless cars.

I'm thinking more of a two-tired pricing. One if for personal use and another for commercial or Robotaxi use on the Tesla Network (i.e. removing expense of paying a driver). The value for each of these cases is so divergent I'm not sure they could reasonably accommodate both with a single price.

 

[Jack6591]

Things that make you say, hmmm

FCA, PSA to win EU approval for $38B merger, report says

 

[corduroy]

Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options. Don't buy more call options.

 

[Unpilot]

So I think we see no volume till after the election.
IF there is a blue wave I think we see a big rise is SP.

Not advice.

 

[Andy O]

two-tired pricing. One if for personal use and another for commercial

It would be quite difficult for Tesla to monitor all users to verify that they aren't using FSD for commercial purposes, so I repeat my previous suggestion, a rental fee that is tied to the distance driven.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Google Translate
Mercedes gives up autonomous driving: "We can't win the race"

Profits are more important than innovation
For Mercedes, there are mainly economic reasons that Ola Källenius, as a new strong man, has conceded many of the lofty plans of his predecessor Dieter Zetsche. "The conversion to a mobility provider is a thing of the past," says the Mercedes spokesman. “We will move away from it again.” Obviously, the first experiences in this direction were sobering: “You can't make money with offers like car sharing,” says the Mercedes man and then it becomes clear: “Our investors expect not only sales, but especially profit. ”In other words: the dividend should be right - even in economically difficult times.

To achieve this, Källenius has cut research and development investments, among other things. The collaboration with BMW that had just begun was also terminated by mutual agreement. They wanted to share the horrendous development costs for autonomous driving with the Munich-based company. But it is now clear: A business model will not result from this in the next few years. As soon as the cooperation became known, trend researcher Mario Herger, who had already worked as a consultant for several German car manufacturers, scoffed from Silicon Valley: “Two companies that can't software now want to develop software.” It's in Munich too has become suspiciously quiet over the past few months when it comes to autonomous driving.

Just signed their own death warrants.

Dan

 

[lafrisbee]

$100k for FSD?
Yeah it might be "worth" that much. But I have not ever heard anyone high upin tesla claim that it would "cost" that much?
My mind played this into a believable scenario of a subscription service. And there are many scenarios.
Buying outright for a personal vehicle limiting the use of the car to certain number of miles "on auto-pilot," with a fee based on miles over like most car leases. That way an individual could drive the car themselves when they felt comfortable to do so in an attempt to manage the costs.
To
Putting enough down to cover Auto-pilot hardware for the vehicle and paying for mileage monthly.

I do not believe any person or company will pay $100k upfront.
Through subscription fees is where FSD can be seen to be "worth $100k."

 

[Artful Dodger]

That’s his most optimistic case, $40K share price by 2030, almost 100x from today!

No, Warren's MOST optimistic case is $100K/share by 2030 (listen again from 30:12 for about 90 sec). This is his "Robotaxi" scenario, and it involves Tesla not selling cars to 3rd parties anymore, but using them all for its company-owned Robotaxi fleet.

The thing you need to recognize about Warren is that he's a libertarian. Thus, he tends to discount (or ignore entirely) the role of Government in approving transportation and energy infrastructure. FI, he assumes Robotaxi will be approved worldwide all at the same time, which is not the trajectory in Germany (or most of Europe), certainly not today.

I'll repeat this again for effect: Nobody will pay $100K for FSD software per vehicle.

So in a modified Robotaxi scenario, Tesla charges $100K/car/yr for others to operate their fleet. Or runs the fleet itself.

Personally, I don't agree with Warren's Robotaxi scenario. Tesla will continue to sell cars to the public. What I do think will happen is that Tesla will sink its "surplus" into the purchase of robotaxis, and add them to a constantly growing fleet. This brings in income while eliminating Tesla's income tax burden.

In effect, Tesla will add a 2nd revenue stream for the life of the car by buying it with tax dollars. And those Robotaxis will have "forever" LFP batteries, no wannabee million-mile schmutz here (and stainless steel bodies, too!)

Cheers!

P.S. To flesh out this concept of sinking Tesla profits into growing a robotaxi fleet, let's look at a one potential 2025 scenario when the $25K "Model 2" is in full worldwide production:

• Telsa is selling about 4M cars annually (S3XY only)
  
• ASP is about $40K for total sales of $160B
• Tesla's Operating Margin is 10% or about $16B
• Model 2 costs $25K (say Robotaxi is ~same cost to Tesla)
  
• That buys about 6.4 million Robotaxi per year
• Elon est'd each Robotaxi earns $30K/yr net after expenses
• That's an addtional $200B each year in new ONGOING revenue:
  • that's $200B Robotaxi revenue in 2025
  • that's $400B Robotaxi revenue in 2026
  • that's $600B Robotaxi revenue in 2027
  • that's $800B Robotaxi revenue in 2028
  • Robotaxi revenue reaches $1 Trillion per year by 2029

Robotaxi expands to serve the worldwide TAM for transportation services (whatever that may be), while generating high and stable profits until competition finally arrives. Basically, Robotaxi eats Jupiter...

But today we found out that this increasingly theoretical 'competition' will not be coming from Daimler or BMW.

P.P.S. Say Elon needs $1T/yr (~1% of world-wide GDP) beginning in 2030 to build his city on Mars. Robotaxi alone gives Elon about a quarter of that. I think Robotaxi alone means Elon will ever sell his TSLA shares, but I forsee some form of dividend scheme beginning in 2030 to allow him to extract his portion (about 25% of TSLA) of Tesla's annual Robotaxi income.

 

[NicoV]

Things that make you say, hmmm

FCA, PSA to win EU approval for $38B merger, report says

More EV-credits for Tesla to sell, with the inclusion of PSA in the FCA-Tesla pool in Europe.

 

[Mo City]

I'm thinking more of a two-tired pricing. One if for personal use and another for commercial or Robotaxi use on the Tesla Network (i.e. removing expense of paying a driver). The value for each of these cases is so divergent I'm not sure they could reasonably accommodate both with a single price.

This would really tick off a lot of people, especially part-time robotaxi operators.

The plan is to snag 25% of robotaxi revenues. The percentage model works for everyone.

 

[dc_h]

“We think, probably, also the Tesla Roadster, a future program, would also make sense in California,” Musk said during the company’s Q2 2020 Earnings Call.

They also referred to reopening the second paint line at Fremont. Would be nice to move low volume cars to the original paint line and provide additional colors and possibly add additional coat for SX and Roadster. It could be used to streamline color options instead, running all white through the old line and all others on the new line, but enhanced quality and added colors would be nice and needed for the Roadster. I assume this is the original SX paint line and that it can be or has been upgraded to return to service.

Tesla Production Sites By Model Assignment, Capacity: October 2020

 

[hobbes]

Cars from GF Berlin will supposedly be shipped to other countries via the sea port of Rostock:
https://twitter.com/Gf4Tesla/status/1320718727634178048

Wonder what countries these cars will be shipped to, as UK and Scandinavia (which come to mind) are also connected by rail. Iceland ?

 

[bkp_duke]

Goodbuy people of this TMC.

My contribution was that I'm not in this investment field and so I got to provide unique perspectives, pulling from broad knowledge to help filter out nonsense, and share ideas and theories with you all - mostly to learn, spread the news, and have some fun. I came here to learn why the stock does what it does.

But the fun is gone now so I'm joining the ranks of Karen and Fact Checking it seems. I do not see myself at their level of knowledge or value to this forum (or planet), but I have similar feelings here I'm sure. Not that I don't sometimes get deep on this forum, but I the feeling of bullying and that affects my inner child. (My wife actually pointed that out - perceptive she is, my rock.) I'm in tears as I write this, but I think it's best.

It's been nice sharing with so many of you, but in reality this is a time sync, and so maybe we're all better for it and I get to quit wasting everyone's time. I do think the mods are trying harder now, and there is a lot of crap at all hours on this thread. I have considered that, but I also do think I've been targeted for deletion of anything OT. I can't write on eggshells, or told "Last warning" on my 420 post when it was my first actually, and on point. I'm getting this from 2 Moderators all within the past 2-3 weeks.

If anyone would like to follow up, ironically, my account name "SOULPEDL" is actually my product SoulPedal®, and it's for musicians (didn't see that coming huh?). Which puts this post way off topic, including my forum name that is breaking a rule from day one (swear I didn't know). I think it squeaked by bc it sound like alternative energy when in fact it's a wireless foot controller. But if we weren't a bunch of rulebreakers here, it wouldn't be Tesla now would it?

420.69 was the share price that I paid last week for 50 shares, and it was very close to the low. I do think there is a social phenomenon here with 420, and I shouldn't feel like I'm running around naked when I refer to this number in earnest. Further, I conspire that this was an agreed upon number by powerful organizations to fix a price. Maybe for S&P IDK, but kinda silly to make it a swear word here. Are we forgetting who's at the helm?

Take care everyone, I will be reading. Come check me out at NAMM (someday?) when you get a chance. Funding for this product was brought to you by TSLA which makes it twice as sweet. Dreams being made on this forum, everywhere. And whatever you see on my channel or website is a toy compared to the power and customization today - secret still. I'm really excited and think I should focus more on that and quit spending every hour watching the SP. Maybe a suggestion for others too.

Cheers!
[email protected]

John - best wishes to you. I've always enjoyed your posts.

 

[phantasms]

You will be deeply missed my friend.

 

[SO16]

Goodbuy people of this TMC.

My contribution was that I'm not in this investment field and so I got to provide unique perspectives, pulling from broad knowledge to help filter out nonsense, and share ideas and theories with you all - mostly to learn, spread the news, and have some fun. I came here to learn why the stock does what it does.

But the fun is gone now so I'm joining the ranks of Karen and Fact Checking it seems. I do not see myself at their level of knowledge or value to this forum (or planet), but I have similar feelings here I'm sure. Not that I don't sometimes get deep on this forum, but I the feeling of bullying and that affects my inner child. (My wife actually pointed that out - perceptive she is, my rock.) I'm in tears as I write this, but I think it's best.

It's been nice sharing with so many of you, but in reality this is a time sync, and so maybe we're all better for it and I get to quit wasting everyone's time. I do think the mods are trying harder now, and there is a lot of crap at all hours on this thread. I have considered that, but I also do think I've been targeted for deletion of anything OT. I can't write on eggshells, or told "Last warning" on my 420 post when it was my first actually, and on point. I'm getting this from 2 Moderators all within the past 2-3 weeks.

If anyone would like to follow up, ironically, my account name "SOULPEDL" is actually my product SoulPedal®, and it's for musicians (didn't see that coming huh?). Which puts this post way off topic, including my forum name that is breaking a rule from day one (swear I didn't know). I think it squeaked by bc it sound like alternative energy when in fact it's a wireless foot controller. But if we weren't a bunch of rulebreakers here, it wouldn't be Tesla now would it?

420.69 was the share price that I paid last week for 50 shares, and it was very close to the low. I do think there is a social phenomenon here with 420, and I shouldn't feel like I'm running around naked when I refer to this number in earnest. Further, I conspire that this was an agreed upon number by powerful organizations to fix a price. Maybe for S&P IDK, but kinda silly to make it a swear word here. Are we forgetting who's at the helm?

Take care everyone, I will be reading. Come check me out at NAMM (someday?) when you get a chance. Funding for this product was brought to you by TSLA which makes it twice as sweet. Dreams being made on this forum, everywhere. And whatever you see on my channel or website is a toy compared to the power and customization today - secret still. I'm really excited and think I should focus more on that and quit spending every hour watching the SP. Maybe a suggestion for others too.

Cheers!
[email protected]

Best of luck to you.

 

[Unpilot]

Just a thought...perhaps when a Mod delete a post ...they don't have to put in a aggressively worded threat as well.

 

[Paracelsus]

So I think we see no volume till after the election.
IF there is a blue wave I think we see a big rise is SP.

Not advice.

Some insightful perspective on this from someone every TSLA Long can appreciate:

Palihapitiya says election won't matter, stocks going higher next 4 years: 'You need to be long'

"Outspoken technology investor Chamath Palihapitiya said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve will have more influence over the markets in the next four years than whomever takes the White House in November.

“Irrespective of whether the Democrats or Republicans are in office, if you’re trying to generate returns you need to be long and you will probably get rewarded,” Social Capital Founder and Chief Executive Officer Chamath Palihapitiya said at the Delivering Alpha conference presented by CNBC and Institutional Investor.

“I think the markets are going higher,” Palihapitiya, an early Facebook executive, added. “I think the markets are going higher because I think the presidency and the impact of the presidency is being divorced from the economic future prosperity of America.”

While many investors are focusing on the outcome of the 2020 election between incumbent Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Wall Street generally sees President Trump as more pro-business; however, they don’t like his volatile relationship with China. Investors take issue with Biden’s plan to raise corporate taxes and tighten regulation.

Palihapitiya said either candidate will have a strong stock market.

“You have coupled monetary and fiscal policy, you have a Treasury and a Federal Reserve that are acting in lockstep and they are printing trillions of dollars and they will have more of an impact over what the next four years looks like,” the investor said. “You have rates at zero, you have absolutely no growth and so you are going to fuel asset price inflation.”

The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero in one of many efforts to shore up the economy that was reeling from the coronavirus shutdown. The central bank has also created programs to provide liquidity to needy companies.

“The Federal Reserve has explicitly told us that they’re not going to touch these rates until 2023 at the earliest and then even then they would rather let inflation run a little before they raise rates,” Palihapitiya said. “So what choice do we have, expect to find growth.”

“We have to go and find a way of pulling forward some growth and giving ordinary people access to good companies that grow fast,” added Palihapitiya.

The Social Capital CEO, who said he donated $1 million to the Democrats, said since the market’s future doesn’t hinge on the election, Americans will choose the more likable candidate.

“its a hot mess, and so they’re just going to vote for the person that they like,” said Palihapitiya"


p.s. - a sincere "Thank You!" to the TMC member who first shared the link to Episode #94 of The Knowledge Project with the Chamath Palihapitaya invterview. Absolutely riveting (as expected). Of particular interest to me was his discussion at 30:45 regarding the value of Observing the Present. Chamath makes a strong argument to which I have long fully agreed - that both sides of the aisle will follow a fairly similar path from a First Principles perspective. It is very much worth listening to again even if you have already heard it, as it is very relative to TSLA at this moment, so I will link it again.

As with his discussion in the CNBC interview linked at the beginning, this argument bodes very well for holding TSLA shares long. My next set of escalating GTC limit sells are set to trigger at $511, with plenty of shares still held in reserve for the very bright future many of us are expecting. Chamath is working hard to convince me to be even more patient with the current macroeconomic conditions than I have been, and to keep those TSLA shares under the mattress for another day.

My opinion - perhaps of little value and relevance, and thus 'not an advice'
The opinion of Chamath Palihapitiya on the heels of Q2 and Q3 TSLA earnings................Priceless