Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

Hell, remember when we touched $540 in pre-market on September 2nd? Was that a fair valuation of Tesla? No, I don't think so either, got a bit ahead of itself, IMO.

So if you bought then you are down 20% on your Tesla stock. And they've been HODLing for two months.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Glad you mentioned it, so I didn't have to. You took one for the team.

I plead the 5th.

 

[Tslynk67]

So if you bought then you are down 20% on your Tesla stock. And they've been HODLing for two months.

Yeah, that's tough, but plenty of times over the last 6 years I've been watching the stock where this could have happened.

Even worse, imagine buying on Feb 4th on that run-up, only for it to stop like a stone, then go down to $350 a few weeks after

 

[Tslynk67]

Pre-market on Sep 2nd was glorious! (while it lasted).

Yes, this was the moment to see my calls, except you can sell calls in pre-market and they had yet been split

 

[Gabos]

Even worse, imagine buying on Feb 4th on that run-up, only for it to stop like a stone, then go down to $350 a few weeks after

Guilty of that one

 

[Mstanisz]

I bought NIO around $3 a while ago when it looked like the company had a high chance of going bankrupt. The government stepped in to save NIO. I sold my position earlier this summer and bought TSLA with the money. But long term I think NIO has a future only because their government will ensure they stay in business.

 

[Singuy]

I'm pegging NIO as a China/regional EV play. China will be 100% EV in 10-15 years so there is plenty of room for NIO without taking anything from Tesla. They are differentiated a bit as well with their battery swap tech which might play well in dense cities. Still, it's a tiny bit of money I have in them compared to Tesla. (rounding error basically)

Sure, but now they are begining to price in Nio as the next Volkswagen if it doubles from here. Even then EVs shouldn't be priced as high as a regular auto manufacturer unless there's a high margin revenue stream because 15% margins and under is trash and shouldnt get any kind of multiple. Legacy can sell high margin parts, Tesla is high margin due to vertical integration. Nio has what exactly when EV requires way less parts that can break?

So people are just playing the hype without really thinking.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Ooh, ur getting so WARM. Even if Model 1 costs $15K to build (and sells at cost), with FSD's current price of $10K then Tesla's margin on a Model 1 Robotaxi is 67% (why sell one without FSD?)

How is this margin possible? Because the incremental COGS of adding FSD software is ZERO. Tesla has already paid for FSD in full in its R&D buget!

Wanna know how fast this "FSD leverage" affects Tesla's margin on Model 1 as FSD price increases?

• FSD $10K - Margin 67%
• FSD $15K - Margin 100%
• FSD $20K - Margin 133%
• FSD $30K - Margin 200%

With an FSD licence at $30K, for every Billion dollars of Robotaxi's Tesla builds (expense), it makes 2 Billion in Profit (from $3B in revenue).

And these profit numbers just continue for any Model 1 / Robotaxi that Tesla DOESN'T sell (ie: buys them internally to add to the Tesla Network as Company-owned Robotaxis. That's because the revenue is ONGOING, not just a one-time payment. If Tesla doesn't build the Model 1 out of long-life stainless steel and use a 'forever' LFP battery with a V2G charging solution, then Zach is not doing his job!

The only limit is working capital from profits. I've previously estimated that 5M S3XY cars/yr generate enough profit to pay in full for 6.4M Models 1 per year, while reducing Tesla's taxes to zero. Yeah, that's $192B annual profit from 6.4 Million sales of Model 1 Robotaxi.

And that's not even considering Model 2 Robotaxi's or any other combination of fleet products.

Do do folks here now understand why Elon is pushing so hard to get FSD working? You can give the printer away for free if you're the only one selling ink...

Elon says that eventually their FSD lead will dissipate as other companies also solve the autonomy problem. However, this does not negate Tesla's "First Mover Advantage". If Telsa can build a fleet of 65M robotaxi's over 10 yrs before other's start delivering functional robotaxi's, then Tesla's lead will be unassailable. The other companies will be reduced to simply buying their factories, and paying licencing royalties to King Tesla.

I think it will be enough money to build a City on Mars.

Cheers!

Great point overall, but that's not how gross margin is calculated. It's (Sales - COGS) / Sales. In your example:

• FSD $10K - Margin 40%
• FSD $15K - Margin 50%
• FSD $20K - Margin 57%
• FSD $30K - Margin 67%

 

[Green Pete]

Sure, but now they are begining to price in Nio as the next Volkswagen if it doubles from here. Even then EVs shouldn't be priced as high as a regular auto manufacturer unless there's a high margin revenue stream because 15% margins and under is trash and shouldnt get any kind of multiple. Legacy can sell high margin parts, Tesla is high margin due to vertical integration. Nio has what exactly when EV requires way less parts that can break?

So people are just playing the hype without really thinking.

NIO has the backing of the very cash rich government of china that has no qualms of interfering in business

Xi Jinping urges push towards hi-tech independence

China's Government Has More Money Than You Can Imagine

 

[Nocturnal]

So if you bought then you are down 20% on your Tesla stock. And they've been HODLing for two months.

Pfftt. The bulk of my buying began in Q3/4 2018. 20% down after two months is nothing. Fortunately I held and bought down to $200.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Today I learned HODLers can't take a joke.

 

[lafrisbee]

ya all got your personal relationships with Tessie, now mine. And it is rather extreme and unique.
I bought at about $130 on January 30th. And this was the first stock I picked out on my own. Well a week later it went up about 30% to $170....and then lost most of it in 20 minutes about 2 hours after I was star stock struck. I was thanking people I didn't even know for encouraging me to support Tessie... She was breathing heavy and chewin on my ear, and she all of a sudden jumped up put her shirt on and ran out the door.
Can I please relieve the glory days..a 30% rise in a day ( that's how I remember it?) but without a 25% drop in the following 20 minutes.

 

[wipster]

The point of my post was to point out if Wall St is giving Nio that kind of valuation, then Tesla deserves a much higher valuation strictly based on earnings and sales right now. When you add all the advantage of Tesla that Nio doesn't have or have the ability to get, then the disparity in valuation becomes comical.

Agreed on all of the above plus Nio is just about cars; as WE all know, Tesla is so much more that may eventually be worth more than the profit from just vehicles.

I believe someone brought this up over the weekend, but just think about the possibility of owning a Tesla home, with solar roof, 2 (or more) PowerPaks, a Tesla designed heat pump, in garage car charging, and last but certainly not least, a flock of S3XY rigs (plus a CT) for the family's transportation needs and quite possibly a big source of income when you don't need the rig.

It boggles the mind and if I were 20 years younger, I would be building towards making it my reality. Younger investors, Make It So!

 

[StealthP3D]

Regarding the earlier discussion on Mach-E, I think it's not really about Ford trying not to go EV, but rather, its struggle on how to build an EV that's competitive and yet fits into Ford's own infrastructure (factory, dealer network, OEM network... etc).

Something gotta give. But at least Ford is taking the steps toward electrification.

I think the electrification effort at Ford started with much bravado as they designed their "Tesla killer". As they development matured they realized they couldn't release anything that would be remotely competitive with Tesla. Company cheerleaders said "Don't worry, we will be close to Tesla in terms of cost/range, etc. and we will have more familiar styling and controls and a helpful dealership network so different strokes for different folks. We will gain expertise and eventually steamroll our way into the lead."

But the bean counters at Ford let them know how much they would lose on each EV if they were sold at a price that enabled a moderate volume of sales. Worse, those sales would displace profitable ICE sales. They couldn't stop the electric "Mustang" project - that would look bad and eventually lead to certain death. So they decided to build it in low volumes and use it as wedge to move people away from money pit EV's and into profitable ICE until they could develop a competitive offering. Which would obviously take many years so it's very important for their first EV's to look good but turn consumers off on EV's. This way they can tell regulators we worked hard to move to zero emissions but we can't change consumer preference - most of them don't want EV's and we need to be cut some slack on emissions requirements.

In short, I think they started with good intentions but now are fighting for their very existence. You wouldn't know this from public statements because admitting it would cause a mass exodus of both investors and customers.

 

[EVortex]

How difficult is it to actually survive and thrive in a disruptive startup?

Elon says about a month away from not making it during production hell. He deserves every dime in options he has and will receive.

Elon Musk says Tesla was 'about a month' from bankruptcy during Model 3 ramp

 

[Nocturnal]

Agreed on all of the above plus Nio is just about cars; as WE all know, Tesla is so much more that may eventually be worth more than the profit from just vehicles.

I believe someone brought this up over the weekend, but just think about the possibility of owning a Tesla home, with solar roof, 2 (or more) PowerPaks, a Tesla designed heat pump, in garage car charging, and last but certainly not least, a flock of S3XY rigs (plus a CT) for the family's transportation needs and quite possibly a big source of income when you don't need the rig.

It boggles the mind and if I were 20 years younger, I would be building towards making it my reality. Younger investors, Make It So!

I'm not sure if I qualify as a young investor at 40, but I currently have 4 extra CTs on order for that possibility. I might be able to fit 2 in my garage, and I guess two in the driveway.

 

[Mike Smith]

Here is auto analyst Rebecca Lindland giving what I'm sure is excellent Tesla investment advice - if only I could decipher what she's talking about..

‘We are impressed by the resiliency of the American consumer:’ Analyst on October auto sales

Starting at 7:44:

"One concern I do have with Tesla though and some of their production manufacturing, you know we're seeing declines - we're seeing a lot more competition in Europe for Tesla and their market share is declining. They're also supplying China with products, and they're supplying Europe with products that are made in China. That kind of leaves their Fremont California plant potentially with some under-production, you know less demand really for their products so we could see some real significant shift in where Tesla produces their products, and what that means for their production facilities and their allocation, so that's something I would definitely watch as an investor."

 

[AudubonB]

Here is auto analyst Rebecca Lindland giving what I'm sure is excellent Tesla investment advice - if only I could decipher what she's talking about..

‘We are impressed by the resiliency of the American consumer:’ Analyst on October auto sales

Starting at 7:44:

"One concern I do have with Tesla though and some of their production manufacturing, you know we're seeing declines - we're seeing a lot more competition in Europe for Tesla and their market share is declining. They're also supplying China with products, and they're supplying Europe with products that are made in China. That kind of leaves their Fremont California plant potentially with some under-production, you know less demand really for their products so we could see some real significant shift in where Tesla produces their products, and what that means for their production facilities and their allocation, so that's something I would definitely watch as an investor."

I'd like that with a balsamic vinagrette, if you please.

 

[Todd Burch]

Here is auto analyst Rebecca Lindland giving what I'm sure is excellent Tesla investment advice - if only I could decipher what she's talking about..

‘We are impressed by the resiliency of the American consumer:’ Analyst on October auto sales

Starting at 7:44:

"One concern I do have with Tesla though and some of their production manufacturing, you know we're seeing declines - we're seeing a lot more competition in Europe for Tesla and their market share is declining. They're also supplying China with products, and they're supplying Europe with products that are made in China. That kind of leaves their Fremont California plant potentially with some under-production, you know less demand really for their products so we could see some real significant shift in where Tesla produces their products, and what that means for their production facilities and their allocation, so that's something I would definitely watch as an investor."

Rebecca expands on her thoughts here to add color:

 

[Thekiwi]

This is one of Rob's better videos and, IMO, he is the best Tesla analyst out there at this time. He has a better grasp of what's going on and what's at stake than anyone (and I'm not talking about quarter to quarter detailed financial analysis, although he's near the top there as well). No, what impresses me is his ability to follow how the story is unfolding using logic to make accurate deductions. This is not possible if one doesn't have a great grasp of the subject matter.

Watch and learn!

Robs Youtube channel is my go to recommendation now for anyone I know who is thinking about investing in Tesla and wants a quick, simple to grok, informative source of Tesla developments & expectations.