Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

This move today proves why I should never try to predict anything in this market. I thought it would happen, but not until Thursday or Friday. Still, I can't help worrying that thing may get ugly tonight. Driving around my city seeing boarded up shop widows is eerie.

Ive been loading up on puts that I hope expire worthless

Nio's approaching a 50 billion market cap while Tesla struggles to hold 400 billion

Whether you think Nio is over valued or Tesla undervalued.......something is off when it comes to the valuations given here.

NIO doesn't have the grand plan that tesla has, they just copy their cars.

 

[willow_hiller]

My point is TSLA is more impacted by FUD and FUDsters than many other stocks, including NIO. As results continue to disprove FUD (or Tesla/Elon hate) over time then FUD will be less of a drag on SP.

If anyone needs evidence, check out the Short Shorts Historian on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TeslaHistorian

If a fraction of TSLAQ are actually shorting the stock/buying puts (and driving the price down via market maker delta hedging) with the same conviction that they post on Twitter, it's virtually guarantee that TSLA is undervalued.

 

[Oveeus]

Regarding the earlier discussion on Mach-E, I think it's not really about Ford trying not to go EV, but rather, its struggle on how to build an EV that's competitive and yet fits into Ford's own infrastructure (factory, dealer network, OEM network... etc).

Something gotta give. But at least Ford is taking the steps toward electrification. Other legacy manufacturers like BMW would be up for a rough awakening if they think just their brand would be able to carry them on a successful shift toward EV.

 

[Singuy]

My point is TSLA is more impacted by FUD and FUDsters than many other stocks, including NIO. As results continue to disprove FUD (or Tesla/Elon hate) over time then FUD will be less of a drag on SP.

I don't think any news is really dragging Tsla besides the price action itself. Tsla skyrocketed too hard leaving people wondering if it's over valued or correctly valued. Anytime when anything x3,4,6,8 in a short amount of time, there will be those who doesn't fully trust the price action. That's why there usually a consolidation period (and maybe even 5 years when tesla ran from pre-split 30s to 300) just waiting on execution. Good news is Tesla is executing better so we may not be range bound for long, but do expect some kind of range bound for awhile.

 

[adiggs]

The market is either not accounting for the growth in production that Tesla is building now or for some reason thinks Tesla cannot sell all of it.

Another explanation is that we're around $2100 pre-split vs $400 earlier this year. We had a low of $80 ($400 pre split) as recently as March 18 of this year - about 6/7 months ago. I readily admit that I consider that price to have been too low (and did at the time as well), but that's still 5x increase (and has been at 6-7x in August) over a portion of this year so another interpretation is that the market feels the shares have moved too far, too fast.

Market overreacting in whatever direction it's going is reasonably common. As a long term shareholder, I consider the next leg up to be inevitable. I also think it is coming soon, but soon might not be until next year.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ive been loading up on puts that I hope expire worthless



NIO doesn't have the grand plan that tesla has, they just copy their cars.

The point of my post was to point out if Wall St is giving Nio that kind of valuation, then Tesla deserves a much higher valuation strictly based on earnings and sales right now. When you add all the advantage of Tesla that Nio doesn't have or have the ability to get, then the disparity in valuation becomes comical.

 

[Tslynk67]

The point of my post was to point out if Wall St is giving Nio that kind of valuation, then Tesla deserves a much higher valuation strictly based on earnings and sales right now. When you add all the advantage of Tesla that Nio doesn't have or have the ability to get, then the disparity in valuation becomes comical.

I don't think WS is giving any valuation for $NIO, just being bid-up by people looking for the "next Tesla", and of course WS will look to profit from that, because they're not.

And I agree with @Singuy - we've 12x the stock since June 2019 - for sure it has been suppressed for years, but that's one hell of a break-out, and a bit of consolidation is both normal and healthy.

Hell, remember when we touched $540 in pre-market on September 2nd? Was that a fair valuation of Tesla? No, I don't think so either, got a bit ahead of itself, IMO.

 

[Ameliorate]

The point of my post was to point out if Wall St is giving Nio that kind of valuation, then Tesla deserves a much higher valuation strictly based on earnings and sales right now. When you add all the advantage of Tesla that Nio doesn't have or have the ability to get, then the disparity in valuation becomes comical.

Yep, Nio delivers 5,000 cars this quarter is worth 1/8th of Tesla. Tesla delivers 140,000 (28X) that many cars, has autopilot, energy and ten other businesses basically. Nobody is saying they're worried about Nio, I think the question is why is there not more of a gap in the companies' valuations, ie Tesla higher or Nio lower or both.

 

[Stretch2727]

Agreed, not worried about Nio at all.

NIO is up 2200% in one year versus TSLA at 540%. I almost sold NIO early this year.

Anyway still very small portion of my portfolio compared to TSLA but starting to become real money. Will hold both for a long time.

I wish there were a few more pure EV plays given how poorly the legacy OEM are responding the EV market.

 

[Singuy]

Yep, Nio delivers 5,000 cars this quarter is worth 1/8th of Tesla. Tesla delivers 140,000 (28X) that many cars, has autopilot, energy and ten other businesses basically. Nobody is saying they're worried about Nio, I think the question is why is there not more of a gap in the companies' valuations, ie Tesla higher or Nio lower or both.

When it comes to hype stock, no one really cares. Nio can crash 50% after a hint of weakening in sales because max fear will set in as Model Y takes market share. Also their launch in Europe or the US can be a complete flop. Lots baked into NIO during this rise. It'll work itself out eventually.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Up 6% on still 1/2 of average volume. I'm expecting good things next Monday or whenever the election is certain. PA should be call-able by Friday at the latest, so I'm thinking that's D Day.

 

[bruce4000]

Is there some invisible force that keeps Tesla stock at $420? Been going higher and lower but always back to $420 (lately).

 

[CorneliusXX]

Yep, Nio delivers 5,000 cars this quarter is worth 1/8th of Tesla. Tesla delivers 140,000 (28X) that many cars, has autopilot, energy and ten other businesses basically. Nobody is saying they're worried about Nio, I think the question is why is there not more of a gap in the companies' valuations, ie Tesla higher or Nio lower or both.

Isn't this the same argument analysts used against Tesla compared to legacy OEMs? Not saying your conclusion is wrong, only that the statement doesn't justify the conclusion by itself.

 

[Singuy]

Up 6% on still 1/2 of average volume. I'm expecting good things next Monday or whenever the election is certain. PA should be call-able by Friday at the latest, so I'm thinking that's D Day.

Really hoping FL and NC are in the bag tonight so we don't have to drag America through the mud waiting on PA.

 

[EVortex]

Isn't this the same argument analysts used against Tesla compared to legacy OEMs? Not saying your conclusion is wrong, only that the statement doesn't justify the conclusion by itself.

Nio is a car company and Tesla is so much more, and more of a threat to the status quo.

 

[Nocturnal]

NIO is up 2200% in one year versus TSLA at 540%. I almost sold NIO early this year.

Anyway still very small portion of my portfolio compared to TSLA but starting to become real money. Will hold both for a long time.

I wish there were a few more pure EV plays given how poorly the legacy OEM are responding the EV market.

I'm pegging NIO as a China/regional EV play. China will be 100% EV in 10-15 years so there is plenty of room for NIO without taking anything from Tesla. They are differentiated a bit as well with their battery swap tech which might play well in dense cities. Still, it's a tiny bit of money I have in them compared to Tesla. (rounding error basically)

 

[Ameliorate]

Isn't this the same argument analysts used against Tesla compared to legacy OEMs? Not saying your conclusion is wrong, only that the statement doesn't justify the conclusion by itself.

Not quite, in this comparison both companies are building a product line into a growing market, where OEM's have a large market that is rapidly declining.

Also yes, the "cars produced" number as a focus totally neglects to include every other business prospect Tesla has which is extremely naive. I tried to highlight this in the comparison vs Nio. Not only do we produce 28x the volume currently but we have multiple trillion dollar revenue prospects in addition to the production capacity. The Nio/TSLA valuations should be about 1/20 - 1/25 in my opinion.

 

[PeterJA]

German engineering firm Saueressig to set up battery cell production equipment in GF Berlin and Texas. Already at work at Kato Road.
Saueressig said to set up cell production for Tesla - electrive.com

I'm behind in the forum so don't know if this was posted. The above article says:

...Only at the beginning of October it became known that Tesla was planning a merger with the German company ATW (Assembly & Test Europe GmbH). Until now, the plant manufacturer has counted car manufacturers such as Daimler, BMW and Volkswagen among its customers. The company, which belongs to the Canadian company ATS Automation Tooling Systems, was actually highly profitable, but then got into economic difficulties due to the corona-related decline in orders and was already in the process of being wound up. The Neuwied site in Rhineland-Palatinate was to be closed. Then Tesla stepped in. In the meantime, the Federal Cartel Office has also approved the possible takeover as reported. There the procedure was listed as “Tesla / Tesla Grohmann Automation / ATS / Assembly & Test Europe (ATW)”. It is, therefore, open whether Tesla itself or its subsidiary Grohmann will merge with ATW.​

I didn't see this elsewhere: another Tesla acquisition that prevents the competition from using those engineers.

 

[adiggs]

Not quite, in this comparison both companies are building a product line into a growing market, where OEM's have a large market that is rapidly declining.

Also yes, the "cars produced" number as a focus totally neglects to include every other business prospect Tesla has which is extremely naive. I tried to highlight this in the comparison vs Nio. Not only do we produce 28x the volume currently but we have multiple trillion dollar revenue prospects in addition to the production capacity. The Nio/TSLA valuations should be about 1/20 - 1/25 in my opinion.

Cars produced, or units, also ignores the economic value. This is a pretty easy thing to miss, where we think and talk about units as a reasonable proxy for economic value.

Using market cap, the market has clearly indicated that Tesla's 500k units this year is not only more valuable than legacy auto's 80M units, it's not even vaguely close. Tesla is the single largest manufacturer by market cap on ~1/20th the volume of Toyota (500k vs 10M units per year; all numbers very rounded).


Units are important to the mission. Revenue, profit, market cap on the units is important to us as investors, as well as to Tesla in regards to financing the mission.

 

[Mo City]

I don't think WS is giving any valuation for $NIO, just being bid-up by people looking for the "next Tesla", and of course WS will look to profit from that, because they're not.

And I agree with @Singuy - we've 12x the stock since June 2019 - for sure it has been suppressed for years, but that's one hell of a break-out, and a bit of consolidation is both normal and healthy.

Hell, remember when we touched $540 in pre-market on September 2nd? Was that a fair valuation of Tesla? No, I don't think so either, got a bit ahead of itself, IMO.

Pre-market on Sep 2nd was glorious! (while it lasted).