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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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In regards to Tesla stock price following election, my guess is the following:

Biden Wins / Republicans keep senate: No EV tax credit changes, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates, CV managed better, US re-enters climate accords = slightly good for markets overall, slightly positive for Tesla Stock Price.


Biden Wins / Democrats take Senate: EV tax credit changes, corporate/personal tax rate increases, CV managed better, US re-enters climate accords = slightly negative or neutral for markets overall, Very positive for Tesla Stock Price

Trump Wins / Republicans keep senate: Status Quo - no EV tax credit changes, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates - possible more tax cuts to come, CV continues running rampant, US remains out of climate accords: would be a surprise result, perhaps big immediate jump in markets & neutral for Tesla stock price.

Trump Wins / Democrats take senate: probably no EV tax credit changes - but possible in a budget negotiation, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates, slightly better oversight of CV response, US remains out of climate accords - good for markets, neutral/slightly positive for Tesla.

(assuming Democrats hold onto power in house of representatives in all scenarios given it is 99% likely)

Looks like this is best result we can hope for now that Republicans seem to have kept the senate:

"Biden Wins / Republicans keep senate: No EV tax credit changes, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates, CV managed better, US re-enters climate accords = slightly good for markets overall, slightly positive for Tesla Stock Price."
 
No matter how this election ends, I am embarrassed to be an American.

My greatest fear is science denial; it foretells the end of the American experiment. That said, election fidelity is the cornerstone of democracy. My hope is that the will of the American people will prevail, but not at the expense of planet Earth.

More than democracy, I hope to bequeath to my children and grandchildren a future based on the ideals of the scientific method, a future grounded upon empirical observation — a fighting chance to overcome climate change.

The evolution of technology is natural and unyielding. Sustainable transportation and renewable energy will prevail, they make great sense.

We have a job to do, a story to tell.
 
Gigafactory Texas progress:

Lots of concrete being poured, footers dug, and western part of factory final grading


Elon on site, visible progress from mid-day:


Since Elon's visit activity seems to have been stepped up considerably. Activity all over the site, with more workers. Pacing items in Gigafactory Berlin seem to be Paint (probably because of how long it will take the new process to be brought on-line), stamping and casting. In Gigafactory Austin it seems that stamping has been started earliest (only about 4 weeks behind Berlin), while the paint shop and casting are later (more like 4 months behind Berlin).

This surprises me because casting and stamping could be done in Fremont for trial/initial production, it is the paint shop that is absolutely vital.

Body-in-White and Seats/Final Assembly don't require any specialist foundations and so are quicker to build. expect to see their foundations in the next couple of weeks.

Speculation: Tesla have managed to acquire presses sooner than expected (due to cancellation?) and so can install them early.

Speculation: Some of the 8 casting machines destined for Berlin have been diverted to Texas as trial/initial production don't require all the machines to be installed.

Speculation: Elon has lit a fire under the contractors and told them they have to "waste anything but time". By my estimation each week that they can bring production forward means $3+ B extra revenue over the next couple of years.

Speculation: Elon has made the decision to go ahead with phase 2. There have been several areas which have been leveled outside the phase 1 plan area, but that seems to have been as a source of fill for phase 1. Now it looks like preparation is underway for phase 2.

 
Since Elon's visit activity seems to have been stepped up considerably. Activity all over the site, with more workers. Pacing items in Gigafactory Berlin seem to be Paint (probably because of how long it will take the new process to be brought on-line), stamping and casting. In Gigafactory Austin it seems that stamping has been started earliest (only about 4 weeks behind Berlin), while the paint shop and casting are later (more like 4 months behind Berlin).

This surprises me because casting and stamping could be done in Fremont for trial/initial production, it is the paint shop that is absolutely vital.

Body-in-White and Seats/Final Assembly don't require any specialist foundations and so are quicker to build. expect to see their foundations in the next couple of weeks.

Speculation: Tesla have managed to acquire presses sooner than expected (due to cancellation?) and so can install them early.

Speculation: Some of the 8 casting machines destined for Berlin have been diverted to Texas as trial/initial production don't require all the machines to be installed.

Speculation: Elon has lit a fire under the contractors and told them they have to "waste anything but time". By my estimation each week that they can bring production forward means $3+ B extra revenue over the next couple of years.

Speculation: Elon has made the decision to go ahead with phase 2. There have been several areas which have been leveled outside the phase 1 plan area, but that seems to have been as a source of fill for phase 1. Now it looks like preparation is underway for phase 2.


While we are speculating, the main issue at present is casting and stamping foundations tying up both cranes. But they are completing footers, once the cranes are free I think the frame, walls and roof will go fast.
Due to the difference in climate I think walls and roof will not be concrete like Berlin and will be faster.

I think they may construct the temporary switchyard need the small retention pond. Once that is done they can eventually remove a lot if the powerpoles on site, demolish most of the MM facilities, level and repair a larger chunk of land.

After thst I think they will proceed with phase 2 and the mobile batch plant will remain on site.

We will see if I am right, removing the powerpoles is important IMO.

I also think that having Elon and the Tesla team on site means decisions are being made quickly that is also accelerating the project. In any building project there are lots of decisions that need to be made.
 
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...Pacing items in Gigafactory Berlin seem to be Paint (probably because of how long it will take the new process to be brought on-line), stamping and casting. In Gigafactory Austin it seems that stamping has been started earliest (only about 4 weeks behind Berlin), while the paint shop and casting are later (more like 4 months behind Berlin).

This surprises me because casting and stamping could be done in Fremont for trial/initial production, it is the paint shop that is absolutely vital.

No paint on the SS Cybertruck so makes some sense?
 
While we are speculating, the main issue at present is casting and stamping foundations tying up both cranes. But they are completing footers, once the cranes are free I think the frame walls and roof will go fast.
Due to the difference in climate I think walls and roof will not be concrete like Berlin and will be faster.

I think they may construct the temporary switchyard need the small retention pond. Once that is done they can eventually remove a lot if the powerpoles on site, demolish most of the MM facilities, level and repair a larger chunk of land.

After thst I think they will proceed with phase 2 and the mobile batch plant will remain on site.

We will see if I am right, removing the powerpoles is important IMO.

It's been reported in earlier videos and elsewhere that many of these power poles are major transmission lines owned by Austin Energy, (coming from/to the adjacent Sand Hill Energy Centre). It's generally impractical, not permitted or prohibitively expensive to move these types of lines. The site plans revealed through the planning process showed easement zones and limits to construction within proximity of these lines and it appears Tesla have been adhering to this. I'd suggest the major power lines are there to stay and that the works will continue to be planned around them.

New columns appeared on a truck in the most recent video and these could be installed by using smaller mobile cranes driven onto site. Looking at other developments in the area (eg Amazon) it looks like steel framed structure is the preferred construction method. While not as sophisticated as the precast concrete used at Berlin, steel framing can still go up very quickly. The outer walls could still be precast panels (strip footings appearing along the North wall line indicate these) but there are other options. Given the current pace of footer construction, more steel framing should be starting any day now.