kengchang
Active Member
House DemSo anyone want to guess the likely House and Senate outcomes?
Senate GOP
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House DemSo anyone want to guess the likely House and Senate outcomes?
I'm not so sure Biden will finish ahead in WI & MI. IMO, Trump is the favorite at this point.looks to me like Biden still has the edge. If he takes AZ, Wisconsin, and Michigan, he doesn't need PA -- which, by the way, he still has a very good chance of taking anyway. Still LOTS of votes to count, despite what Trump says.
It doesn't matter how many items are voted on, it's just one paper ballot.Given that counting bits of paper is no easy task, should they not split out the House and Senate votes in future elections to different day?
In regards to Tesla stock price following election, my guess is the following:
Biden Wins / Republicans keep senate: No EV tax credit changes, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates, CV managed better, US re-enters climate accords = slightly good for markets overall, slightly positive for Tesla Stock Price.
Biden Wins / Democrats take Senate: EV tax credit changes, corporate/personal tax rate increases, CV managed better, US re-enters climate accords = slightly negative or neutral for markets overall, Very positive for Tesla Stock Price
Trump Wins / Republicans keep senate: Status Quo - no EV tax credit changes, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates - possible more tax cuts to come, CV continues running rampant, US remains out of climate accords: would be a surprise result, perhaps big immediate jump in markets & neutral for Tesla stock price.
Trump Wins / Democrats take senate: probably no EV tax credit changes - but possible in a budget negotiation, no rise in corporate/personal tax rates, slightly better oversight of CV response, US remains out of climate accords - good for markets, neutral/slightly positive for Tesla.
(assuming Democrats hold onto power in house of representatives in all scenarios given it is 99% likely)
No matter how this election ends, I am embarrassed to be an American.
Gigafactory Texas progress:
Lots of concrete being poured, footers dug, and western part of factory final grading
Elon on site, visible progress from mid-day:
Since Elon's visit activity seems to have been stepped up considerably. Activity all over the site, with more workers. Pacing items in Gigafactory Berlin seem to be Paint (probably because of how long it will take the new process to be brought on-line), stamping and casting. In Gigafactory Austin it seems that stamping has been started earliest (only about 4 weeks behind Berlin), while the paint shop and casting are later (more like 4 months behind Berlin).
This surprises me because casting and stamping could be done in Fremont for trial/initial production, it is the paint shop that is absolutely vital.
Body-in-White and Seats/Final Assembly don't require any specialist foundations and so are quicker to build. expect to see their foundations in the next couple of weeks.
Speculation: Tesla have managed to acquire presses sooner than expected (due to cancellation?) and so can install them early.
Speculation: Some of the 8 casting machines destined for Berlin have been diverted to Texas as trial/initial production don't require all the machines to be installed.
Speculation: Elon has lit a fire under the contractors and told them they have to "waste anything but time". By my estimation each week that they can bring production forward means $3+ B extra revenue over the next couple of years.
Speculation: Elon has made the decision to go ahead with phase 2. There have been several areas which have been leveled outside the phase 1 plan area, but that seems to have been as a source of fill for phase 1. Now it looks like preparation is underway for phase 2.
...Pacing items in Gigafactory Berlin seem to be Paint (probably because of how long it will take the new process to be brought on-line), stamping and casting. In Gigafactory Austin it seems that stamping has been started earliest (only about 4 weeks behind Berlin), while the paint shop and casting are later (more like 4 months behind Berlin).
This surprises me because casting and stamping could be done in Fremont for trial/initial production, it is the paint shop that is absolutely vital.
While we are speculating, the main issue at present is casting and stamping foundations tying up both cranes. But they are completing footers, once the cranes are free I think the frame walls and roof will go fast.
Due to the difference in climate I think walls and roof will not be concrete like Berlin and will be faster.
I think they may construct the temporary switchyard need the small retention pond. Once that is done they can eventually remove a lot if the powerpoles on site, demolish most of the MM facilities, level and repair a larger chunk of land.
After thst I think they will proceed with phase 2 and the mobile batch plant will remain on site.
We will see if I am right, removing the powerpoles is important IMO.