Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MABMAB]

Meanwhile, in Shanghai...

"Parking lot 54, full of Model 3s，Shanghai's new traffic restriction policy, good for Tesla"

Wow, that filled up fast

 

[MikeAtkinson]

While we are speculating, the main issue at present is casting and stamping foundations tying up both cranes. But they are completing footers, once the cranes are free I think the frame walls and roof will go fast.
Due to the difference in climate I think walls and roof will not be concrete like Berlin and will be faster.

There will be lots more cranes on site soon. The footers need about 2 weeks for the concrete to cure, but I think the main hold up has been in designing the structure and bringing the steel suppliers up to speed, there are delays in design, specification, bidding, selection, manufacture and logistics. While the body-in-white and general assembly sections are pretty standard buildings, the paint shop has unique features.

Much less snow, but Austin still has strong winds, rain and similar temperature range - just a bit higher.

I think they may construct the temporary switchyard need the small retention pond. Once that is done they can eventually remove a lot if the powerpoles on site, demolish most of the MM facilities, level and repair a larger chunk of land.

I'm wondering if the plans have changed and there is not going to be a temporary switchyard. There seems to be no sign that it is being constructed, while the permanent switchyard has had the land leveled. I think they will add in an underground line from the sub-station across the river to the permanent switchyard along the existing right-of-way. It is not obvious how they would get power to a temporary switchyard.

Agree about removing many of the powerpoles, the high voltage lines along the right-of-way will probably stay, as will the gas pipeline. I was surprised when they added the line in to the concrete batch plant across what I assumed would be phase 2.

After thst I think they will proceed with phase 2 and the mobile batch plant will remain on site.

We will see if I am right, removing the powerpoles is important IMO.

The relevance to investment is that the faster Austin (and Berlin and Shanghai) can ramp, the more revenue Tesla has both in the medium term due to increased production in the next couple of years and in the longer term due to first mover advantage.

 

[AudubonB]

This is correct (#216121).

As in 2016, we will draw a line some time in the near future and all such posting will end. Until then, non-uncivilized and non-counterfactual posts will be overlooked.

 

[UCF3]

Looks like a good thing that EM didn’t publicly pick a winner when he was interviewed a few weeks ago.

 

[Tslynk67]

The Presidency is going to the wire. Biden's ahead, with called states, but behind on the majority of what's still to declare, but he's catching-up as the absentee ballots are factored-in.

However, seems very likely that GOP will hold the Senate, so even if Biden were to become President and the DEMs retain the House, which also looks likely, I can't see much getting past McConnell's desk in the next two years. Agreed?

Let's hope they all put on their big-boy trousers and start working across the House a bit more. I think regardless of who wins, there needs to be some reconciliation.

 

[Singuy]

The Presidency is going to the wire. Biden's ahead, with called states, but behind on the majority of what's still to declare, but he's catching-up as the absentee ballots are factored-in.

However, seems very likely that GOP will hold the Senate, so even if Biden were to become President and the DEMs retain the House, which also looks likely, I can't see much getting past McConnell's desk in the next two years. Agreed?

Let's hope they all put on their big-boy trousers and start working across the House a bit more. I think regardless of who wins, there needs to be some reconciliation.

Perhaps the best case for market. No tax changes with the senate stone walling and more stability when it comes to trade with Biden. I think this is why market is up huge.

 

[vikings123]

Ok in the midst of all this political craziness we continue to see crazy valuations for EV stocks.

Citi just raised their NIO price target to 46.40 giving NIO a potential market cap of 62B. This is the same Citi that has a price target of 137$ on Tesla giving TSLA a valuation of around 125B so 2X NIO. How absurd is this? The greed and incompetence on Wall Street is mind boggling and this is just another example of “analysts” not doing any real analysis.

Just to be clear I’m not complaining about TSLA valuation.

 

[Singuy]

Ok in the midst of all this political craziness we continue to see crazy valuations for EV stocks.

Citi just raised their NIO price target to 46.40 giving NIO a potential market cap of 62B. This is the same Citi that has a price target of 137$ on Tesla giving TSLA a valuation of around 125B so 2X NIO. How absurd is this? The greed and incompetence on Wall Street is mind boggling and this is just another example of “analysts” not doing any real analysis.

Just to be clear I’m not complaining about TSLA valuation.

It seems that JP and Citi who has trollish tsla valuation are also the ones giving Nikola and others very bullish valuation. No idea why.

 

[jerry33]

It seems that JP and Citi who has trollish tsla valuation are also the ones giving Nikola and others very bullish valuation. No idea why.

I believe their investment in fossil fuels pretty much explains it.

 

[mongo]

In Gigafactory Austin it seems that stamping has been started earliest (only about 4 weeks behind Berlin), while the paint shop and casting are later (more like 4 months behind Berlin).

This surprises me because casting and stamping could be done in Fremont for trial/initial production, it is the paint shop that is absolutely vital.

Speculation: Tesla have managed to acquire presses sooner than expected (due to cancellation?) and so can install them early.

GigaBerlin stamping (and casting) was delayed due to concers over the pilings and groundwater. Tesla Giga Berlin Reduces the Number of Piles in Groundwater

The GigaTexas will be either the 3rd or fourth factory with model Y lines. Unless they make major changes to current processes, the existing equipment programming will be mostly carry over with, and any adjustments needed will be specific to the rest of the equipment. Shipping in quantities of Fremont parts for trial runs may not be very advantageous.

Shell construction and dry in (scheduled for end of year) will drive the equipment installation and build out. Berlin is a crazy cool multilevel structure, but that takes more time to assemble. It will be interesting to see how fast the Texas structure goes up with steel and, I believe, tip up walls.

 

[joh01652]

I just traded in my 2013 p85+ for a awd model y 10 days ago. I thought I would be buying the acceleration upgrade immediately, but I haven't. While slower to 60mph, the acceleration I feel at higher speeds seems a bit more punchy than my old model s. It's not as big of a gap as I thought it would be and the model y handles very well.

I just got Acceleration Boost a couple of weeks ago. It does matter, quite significantly.

In fact, going from a 2019 M3 SR+ to the LR AWD MY, I simply assumed the longer range, bigger battery would make the car faster. Not so. I felt like maybe the Y was even a bit slower. Off the line, the 3/Y felt about the same, but from, I don't know, 10-60 mph+ the Y underwhelmed; I didn't do any empirical track testing or anything, just going off my gut feeling.

In any event, the Acceleration Boost really adds punch after you get it off the line, like the car really really surges nicely and doesn't stop. Personally I don't care about top speed/high performance, but I like selling people on Teslas so I like to do my best to give people the full Tesla experience.

 

[Sanny]

This is will be my only post on politics and the US.......but as soon as I'm able to leave my current company with my options/shares in tact (in 2 to 3 years), I will be moving away from this country. I dont think I really need to explain my reasoning

Based on what I read on facebook, Canada population tripled last time, this time it would become the largest in the world by population.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA continues to lag slightly behind macros in the Pre-market:

• NQ-100 Futures: 11,634.00 +368.25 +3.27% 07:43:33
  
• TSLA Pre-market: 436.51 +12.61 (2.97%) 7:42 a.m. EST

NASDAQ Real-Time: (as of 08:11 EDT)

$436.46 +12.56 (2.96%)​

And for comparison to macros trading, here's the pre-market QQQ (as of 08:22 EDT)

Overall, imma call it: "Best that we could hope for..."

Cheers!

 

[FrankSG]

Ok in the midst of all this political craziness we continue to see crazy valuations for EV stocks.

Citi just raised their NIO price target to 46.40 giving NIO a potential market cap of 62B. This is the same Citi that has a price target of 137$ on Tesla giving TSLA a valuation of around 125B so 2X NIO. How absurd is this? The greed and incompetence on Wall Street is mind boggling and this is just another example of “analysts” not doing any real analysis.

Just to be clear I’m not complaining about TSLA valuation.

Some analyst did the exact same thing with NKLA a few months ago. They valued TSLA @ ~2x NKLA. Which is even more absurd than this NIO valuation.

Bottom line: Take anything WS analysts say with a Cybertruck-load of skepticism.

 

[FrankSG]

The Presidency is going to the wire. Biden's ahead, with called states, but behind on the majority of what's still to declare, but he's catching-up as the absentee ballots are factored-in.

However, seems very likely that GOP will hold the Senate, so even if Biden were to become President and the DEMs retain the House, which also looks likely, I can't see much getting past McConnell's desk in the next two years. Agreed?

Let's hope they all put on their big-boy trousers and start working across the House a bit more. I think regardless of who wins, there needs to be some reconciliation.

You know a lot about US politics for a European

I understand about half of what they're saying on CNN, and only just learned that a Biden win doesn't automatically mean he gets to implement his plans, like the EV credit refresh.

 

[Cape Coddess]

Question: since the GOP took the Senate does that mean we most likely won't see the $7,500 fed tax credit on future vehicle purchases?

I'm asking because I have a Cybertruck coming in 2022 and that sweet credit would have paid for most of the FSD.

 

[wooter]

You know a lot about US politics for a European

Binge watch The West Wing. It's a pretty good and compelling course into US national politics.

 

[MABMAB]

This is correct (#216121).

As in 2016, we will draw a line some time in the near future and all such posting will end. Until then, non-uncivilized and non-counterfactual posts will be overlooked.

I guess I better just stop posting as I can't figure out what non counterfactual means.
Counterfactual conditional - Wikipedia
Counterfactuals (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
Counterfactual thinking - Wikipedia

 

[st_lopes]

Binge watch The West Wing. It's a pretty good and compelling course into US national politics.

West Wing and the News Room are great primers on this dynamic.

Question: since the GOP took the Senate does that mean we most likely won't see the $7,500 fed tax credit on future vehicle purchases?

I'm asking because I have a Cybertruck coming in 2022 and that sweet credit would have paid for most of the FSD.

I wouldn’t discount the 7,500 credit as not happening just yet. That particular policy would be a soft ball in supporting automotive broadly which GOP wouldn’t fight too hard on. The more divergent policy issues like corporate/personal tax raises are likely dead on arrival.

Reality is, this is democracy at work. A “stalemate” is how most democratic countries actually govern. By coalition and compromise.

 

[joh01652]

Tesla hacker finds hints at 5G connection and hotspot in software - Electrek