When I saw videos of Elon on his earlier trip to GigaBerlin surrounded by people not masked-up to minimize spread I was worried and recall I posted here.
Obviously just because he is a hyper-self-confident incredibly successful uber-Genius +4-5 STDDEV IQ billionaire does not give him immunity. Recall his uninformed Covid-19 tweets earlier this year when he was trying to get GigaFremont re-opened which came off as really insensitive.
Now, IF he has it (and I think he does based upon all my Covid-19 reading these past 9 months but I am not an MD), I am worried that he will not rest, rest, rest to let his immune system fight it with the proper medical protocol. If I were him, I'd contact Donald and find out where he got his drug from just in case it were needed. I hope Grimes (who may have it too along with their child) FORCES him to forget about his businesses for as long as needed to take care of his health and recover for his family.
NOT investing advice: I anticipate the market is going to freak out tomorrow, especially if PCR testing confirms it. Definitely a buying opportunity. I predict a gap down Friday at the open. We will go below $400 if confirmed, possibly down as low as $380 (-9%) since Wall Street - especially the AI-driven automated trading algorithms - overreact to everything $TSLA because we ride a volatility rollercoaster. Then the micro will be driven by Elon's health until he recovers.
Besides the viral awesome products, Elon's Twitter and enormous Internet following (from podcasts, etc.) is the driving reason behind $TSLA never having to advertise their products. If we lost him, depending upon who replaced him, for some time I'm afraid it might be like $AAPL without Steve when Tim took over. My analogy is Elon is like a brilliant gambler who figured out how to beat the house (ICE, Lockheed, etc.) when everyone said it was impossible. I can't think of any replacement who would be like that? Thoughts?
* The reason I believe Elon has Covid-19 is 2 positive and 2 negative tests probably indicate his viral load is barely enough to trigger a positive test, but it is unlike for him to have 2 false positives out of 4 -- let's hope I'm wrong! The more accurate PCR (polymerase chain reaction) lab test he is waiting to get results back from within 24 hours is the one where they swab your nose.
My family and I have to get PCR's before we can board our flight to Taiwan:
"Travelers should provide a certificate of a negative COVID-19 RT-PCR test result issued by a qualified medical institution in his/her place of departure within three days prior to boarding the flight" [Taiwan CDC]
No. Too many long-term, poorly understood side-effects. Risk goes up and stays up for quite a while. At least until after he recovers and demonstrates his ability to perform at his previous insane (ludicrous?) level. That's actual risk. As to perceived risk, which is what the stock price will reflect, I can't say.
