We don't need to know the actual cost to know it will be dramatically cheaper.
We need to know the actual cost to judge it it'll be SO MOAR CHEAPER people stop owning cars though.
We know at current pricing of rideshare and taxis that people still prefer, in massively massively, overwhelming numbers, to own cars.
If you want to make the argument there's some lower cost that is SO low a large % of those people will change their mind on that, you'd need to:
Know what that lower cost is (not sure how you determine this)
and
Know what the actual real world cost of an RT would be, to compare against item 1.
As I pointed out, Uber nationally runs about $2 a mile. So I'm not sure "50% off uber" is cheap enough to get folks, especially Americans, to ditch car ownership in numbers as large as some folks seem to think will happen.
Certainly not in numbers to support throwing 10x more RTs on the road today than there are uber drivers... (and that'd be ONE year of Tesla car production by 2030 or sooner per Elons production estimates).
Come on... electric, low maintenance, zero driver-labor, zero-marginal-cost software...
zero to whom?
The discussion was originally around individual owners running their cars as RTs... so the software is nowhere NEAR 0 cost to them.
If you're switching to Tesla running their own fleet without anyone else involved costs obviously drop- but that promise to owners they can make a ton of $ on their RTS take a kick in the groin since Tesla can do it a lot cheaper than individual owners can...like a LOT cheaper... they don't need to lose 30% of fares to themselves as individuals on the Tesla network would... they don't need to make 20+% gross profit on the vehicle sales, the profit on the software, and can do charging and any maintenance a bit cheaper than individuals too.
So that's really 2 different discussions.
Tesla owned RTs will have massively lower cost than individual ones. And know they're gonna have a big fleet of em based on the lease stuff going on.
Here is my argument in a nutshell, which you have yet to refute: You keep estimating robotaxi usage based on cheap transport options that exist now, but there has never been a cheap option with the comfort, convenience, privacy and safety of Tesla robotaxis at scale. New technology can change behavior.
But this isn't "new" technology to the user.
"Car I can hail with my phone that picks me up and takes me somewhere safety for money"
That's Uber, but cheaper, and without annoying conversation.
Certainly that's BETTER than more expensive and WITH annoying conversation.... but I can't think of a time I ever WOULD have used Uber, but
didn't because it wasn't just a few dollars cheaper, or because I didn't want someone asking me how my day was on the ride.
I've certainly never thought "Man, if Uber was 50% cheaper we'd just not even own any car at all"
So my argument, which you've yet to refute, is that RTs when/if they end up existing outside of Chandler, AZ, will replace nearly 100% of "regular" taxi and human-driven rideshare vehicles.
Which is enough to absorb about 10% of 1 years 2030 Tesla vehicle production.
Probably they'll see a significant increase in use from folks who no longer bother repairing/keeping an older 2nd or 3rd car around for only occasional use.... so MAYBE that doubles the # of rideshare vehicles needed? Given utilization stats that may even be high, but let's go with it.
That's 20% of 1 year of 2030 Tesla vehicle production.
So again the idea anybody can just make $30,000/yr on their car in their spare time as an RT seems largely fantasy in the long term.
And again Tesla THEMSELVES will be running a fleet of these- cheaper than individual owners can do so.
And actually, I did ride the NYC subway. As I recall, there was lotsa noise, dirt, hard or unavailable seats, and no way to talk during rush without six strangers eavesdropping. That's what I meant about privacy.
Which spy agency do you work for, specifically, that random subway rider knowing what you plan to eat for dinner is a big problem?
Mostly New Yorkers avoid eye contact and give not a crap what anybody else is saying, FYI.
You DO occasionally have to stand during busy times (well, pre covid anyway).... but you get there in 5-10 minutes instead of sitting in traffic at 3 mph for 45 minutes, so that's still a win.
