Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MikeAtkinson]

Since this is the first Japanese astronaught into space, perhaps all of these model X's will help the Japan sales of Tesla?

Not the first Japanese Astronaut: japanese astronauts - Google Search

 

[hobbes]

T-Online got the story too - referencing bild.de but also another source - Nachrichtenagentur dpa-AFX:

EU-Kommission plant deutlich strengere Abgasregeln

I cannot access bild.de so I do not know their source(s).

Deleted my post that you quoted because another bild.de article was already linked in the original post I replied to. That seems to be the original source as far as I can tell. I guess we will know more by tomorrow.

 

[Khamul]

Since this is the first Japanese astronaught into space, perhaps all of these model X's will help the Japan sales of Tesla?

Soichi Noguchi is a seriously cool dude! This is the third time he's going to space, and each time on a different spacecraft. He's flown on the Space Shuttle, on Soyuz, and now Dragon.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Not the first Japanese Astronaut: japanese astronauts - Google Search

Sorry, misphrased. First Japanese astronaut on a private entity launch.

 

[ZeApelido]

A new startup helm.ai uses unsupervised learning to teach deep neural nets to do autonomous driving, any expert can comment if this could be a competitive threat to Tesla as it might neutralize Tesla's fleet size advantage? See Forbes article: Forbes Insights: The Future Of AI Is Unsupervised where the CEO talks about no need for labeling : "With unsupervised learning, you feed the model images without labels and it learns to understand those images purely algorithmically. Removing the need for labeling means you can train models faster and more cheaply."

The vagaries of unsupervised learning make it sound fancier than it actually is.

Nothing beats supervised learning if you can label all the data.

If you can't, then best to still get as much labeled data as possible and then augment with unsupervised techniques.

But better than unsupervised techniques will be self-supervised techniques, which basically is taking the final human drive behavior outputs (acceleration and turning) as the label of the data (automatically done).

Of course all the other companies are going to poo poo supervised learning, because they are at a disadvantage there.

For Tesla, guess what? They will have the best data to do supervised, self-supervised, and unsupervised than anyone else.

 

[LTC_RRR]

You still need to feed the data (images, videos, LiDAR scans, whatever) into the system for it to unsupervised-edly label. If you don't have a fleet to speak of, you'll be severely restricted as to the amount of data have have available to feed it. (Whereas Tesla will always have mountains of data to feed their training systems, whether they used supervised labeling or not.) Removing the bottleneck of labeling speed doesn't do anything about the bottleneck of available data to label.

So no, I don't think this would in any way neutralize Tesla's fleet size advantage.

Assuming the helm.ai algoritmns are, in fact, good and effective, just think how it would be if those algorithms were paired with Dojo to train the FSD neural nets!

 

[MC3OZ]

Australia and China are in the midst of a trade war. Does this settle all of those issues? Any Aussies care to comment?

Our government as spinning this as a solution, but China will not let us off the hook that easily.

There is right and wrong on both sides, but they have a bigger stick.

A lot of their actions are dressed up as a biosecurity concerns, no one outside China will know if the Chinese really found some beetles in a shipment of wood, and how those beetles got there.

Other Asian countries will probably try to give China a gentle nudge in the direction of being more friendly, cooperative and reliable.

Behind the scenes our government may get some long overdue tuition on manners and Asian sensibilities....

Our government will be too pigheaded tp a achieve an meaningful reconciliation, because that will require some form of public apology, so the Chinese will keep whacking us with the stick.,

If we have a change of government the Chinese may be prepared to wipe the slate clean, we know criticism of China has a cost, but smart countries know there is safety in numbers.

So overall my recommendation is keep criticism of China multilateral, it is foolhardy to go first.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Am I the only one whose phone app is refusing to communicate with their car?

Here: Issues with Tesla app on iPhone 12

Please don't post on this thread.

 

[LTC_RRR]

Yup.

See also VW saying they're gonna hire 10,000 people for a new software division to get software right.

As has been cited, they think if 1 woman can give birth in 9 months, 9 women can do it in 1.

As has also been cited, "Adding more programmers to a project that is already late just manes it much later"

 

[MC3OZ]

My perception is that Germany was (and is) progressing faster than Texas. Shocking, eh?

The true tell-tail will be the speed of building construction, utilities and provisioning. I suspect Germany might win this one too judging by their blazing progress so far.

I generally like to root for the underdogs but I'm rooting for Texas to win this one. Why do I call Germany the "underdog"? Because the perception is that Germany has excessive bureaucracy and regulations that make progress difficult while Texas is free as a bird. But, based on what I've seen so far, the construction in Germany looks better planned and far more efficient. This is a function of the efficiency of the contractors, not a lack of government regulation. At the Texas site I see poor routes chosen by equipment operators and poor locations chosen for repetitive tasks. Efficiency is impacted greatly by repetitive actions that are not well optimized in time and space. Texas seems rather poor in this regard. In Germany they seem to work smarter, not necessarily harder, but faster.

I have Cybertrucks on order so I hope TX gets their brains together.

My take Berlin wins on efficiency, but Austin is wining on sequence of jobs..

If we measure a building project in terms of energy expended on site, to achieve a result, Berlin is a winner.

If we measure in time, Austin is a very likely winning. IMO because correct sequencing of work overrides any minor inefficiencies.

I'm talking about the casting and stamping foundations here, Austin started at the right time, Berlin was delayed due to planning considerations. Within the constraints of the German planning system the Berlin team has done a stellar job. We should not criticize the German planning system, it is what the local people want, and it mostly achieves good outcomes.

It is clear at Austin the challenges are front-loaded in site preparation, earthmoving and geo-pier and it is clear Tesla hasn't taken the cheap option like building parking on top of swampy ground, optimal layout of the finished factory has comes first, and that has a cost in terms of additional geo-pier work.

US construction workers do like to drive around in the vehicles on site, I'm sure better planning could eliminate some of these trips and shorten some of the paths, but overall it doesn't make much difference. The Geo-pier teams are in the way, and have been holding up some of the later phases... When Geo-pier is 100% complete on the main site, it will be less cluttered,, and better organized.

Once they complete the casting foundations, and deploy all of the cranes in frame construction it will go faster.

 

[AudubonB]

Since this is the first Japanese astronaut into space on a privet entity...

Just like the Japanese to hedge their bet.

 

[Bet TSLA]

As has also been cited, "Adding more programmers to a project that is already late just makes it much later"

The actual quote is:
“Adding manpower to a late software project, makes it later.”
― Frederick P. Brooks Jr., The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Software Engineering

Another universal truth from that book is:
“The management question, therefore, is not whether to build a pilot system and throw it away. You will do that. The only question is whether to plan in advance to build a throwaway, or to promise to deliver the throwaway to customers.”

Great book. Every programmer and project manager should have read it before starting any large software project. Very few have.

 

[H Mak]

Crew 1 mission, 10 mins to liftoff

SpaceX

 

[Artful Dodger]

Crew-1 Mission 'viewership' is following a ballistic trajectory:

673,328 watching now T-5:30 min

742,416 watching now T-2:30 min

772,096 watching now T-10 sec​

748,650 watching now T+2:00 min​

574,896 watching now T+10:00 min​

Cheers!

EDIT:

Continuous coverage steaming on Youtube: "Crew-1 Rendezvous Phase" (Coast phase) until 11 pm EST Monday witht the docking ceremony at the Int'l Space Station.

What wonderful free PR for SpaceX/Tesla. Engineers rule; PR droolz.

 

[Fobble]

This looks fake. I don’t think the Roadster is even out yet. I mean, look—the charger is in the wrong side of the car and I doubt Leonardo DiCaprio would have his full name on his mailbox.

Can’t fool me.

Besides, the house looks too small to be DiCaprio's house

 

[LN1_Casey]

Just like the Japanese to hedge their bet.

Lol, I was looking at it going, "Hm, something seems off. Eh, there's no red squiggle, it's fine." Then the editing window closed. xD Whoops.

 

[smorgasbord]

The actual quote is:
“Adding manpower to a late software project, makes it later.”
― Frederick P. Brooks Jr., The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Software Engineering

Another universal truth from that book is:
“The management question, therefore, is not whether to build a pilot system and throw it away. You will do that. The only question is whether to plan in advance to build a throwaway, or to promise to deliver the throwaway to customers.”

Great book. Every programmer and project manager should have read it before starting any large software project. Very few have.

It is a great book, but I also believe it's important to understand that the art of Software Development has progressed a long way since 1975. For instance, there was no Agile Manifesto 45 years ago. Today you don't have to built a pilot system to throw away since you develop the system incrementally, testing and estimating as you go, building in priority order and with daily stand-ups and sprints that are about 2-weeks in length.

 

[Nolimits]

spacex launch looked great.

So what are the guesses?
monday SP back higher- ATH? maybe 440-450? Or still pressured down due to covid news?
Its been rather quiet with tesla news. Would hate to sit in below 420s again all week.

 

[ammulder]

Meanwhile in the Netherlands
November so far
Cars sold: 13065 of which 2823 BEV (21.6%...!)
Model3: 2 :-(

#DemandProblem

 

[ReddyLeaf]

spacex launch looked great.

So what are the guesses?
monday SP back higher- ATH? maybe 440-450? Or still pressured down due to covid news?
Its been rather quiet with tesla news. Would hate to sit in below 420s again all week.

I’m planning on the normal overnight gap up and Monday morning spike (maybe as high as 450) followed by the mandatory dip back down to 415-425.