Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[amolina]

Order to sell 10,000 shares just popped up again as TSLA crossed $445. The order is to sell at $447.78. This order (at varying price points) has been getting put in and pulled for hours now.

What platform do you use? I would love to figure this out as well and take necessary steps

 

[JustSaying]

View attachment 609179

 

[MC3OZ]

Imma call it: Model 2 it is!

Short term I wonder about staging at the factory with Model 3 & Y at close the 1 Million and a mix of Chinese and export shipments.

Short term a lot of that Watermelon farm can be turned into a staging area, specifically export staging.

If they are going to build Model 2 at GF Shanghai they may need more land or a multi-level car park?

EDIT: I've looked at video, if they have purchased the whole watermelon farm, it is a big chunk of land, it may be big enough to do staging and Model 2.

At present they are using a car park close to the factory for Chinese Model 3 staging, it is only a few minutes drive, but it seems workers drive cars there and return in a bus.

I've got similar thoughts on Fremont, if they are going to add a fancy new paint shop and structural pack casting, they need the space.
A multi-level car park at Fremont is one way of freeing up some space.
Building a new paint shop and casting at Fremont, while minimizing production disruption is challenging. Waiting until Austin is producing Model Y is sensible.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I've got similar thoughts on Fremont, if they are going to add a fancy new paint shop and structural pack casting, they need the space.
A multi-level car park at Fremont is one way of freeing up some space.
Building a new paint shop and casting at Fremont, while minimizing production disruption is challenging. Waiting until Austin is producing Model Y is sensible.

I have a friend who worked for awhile at a port that has a holding area for cars getting unloaded from boats and then sitting there for sometimes months before delivery. Even so they don't want to put anything under a roof of any kind because that means walls and that means stuff you can damage the cars against.

As a side note you can't be dressed in anything that has metal or anything hard really. Blue Jeans is out because of rivets that can cause damage.

 

[Don TLR]

HODL and happy to wait a few more years to take a share or two. I saw this one earlier today and got a good laugh.

 

[MC3OZ]

I have a friend who worked for awhile at a port that has a holding area for cars getting unloaded from boats and then sitting there for sometimes months before delivery. Even so they don't want to put anything under a roof of any kind because that means walls and that means stuff you can damage the cars against.

As a side note you can't be dressed in anything that has metal or anything hard really. Blue Jeans is out because of rivets that can cause damage.

I guess they could introduce "safety buffers" parking cars well away from walls, columns etc, that probably doesn't stop employees trying to squeeze extra cars in,

I'm sure they have considered every option for making more space at Fremont, and concluded, they must build Austin.

 

[gabeincal]

Short term I wonder about staging at the factory with Model 3 & Y at close the 1 Million and a mix of Chinese and export shipments.

Short term a lot of that Watermelon farm can be turned into a staging area, specifically export staging.

If they are going to build Model 2 at GF Shanghai they may need more land or a multi-level car park?

EDIT: I've looked at video, if they have purchased the whole watermelon farm, it is a big chunk of land, it may be big enough to do staging and Model 2.

At present they are using a car park close to the factory for Chinese Model 3 staging, it is only a few minutes drive, but it seems workers drive cars there and return in a bus.

I've got similar thoughts on Fremont, if they are going to add a fancy new paint shop and structural pack casting, they need the space.
A multi-level car park at Fremont is one way of freeing up some space.
Building a new paint shop and casting at Fremont, while minimizing production disruption is challenging. Waiting until Austin is producing Model Y is sensible.

It’s incredible how many man hours go into moving cars around! FSD to the rescue!!

 

[Curt Renz]

Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices today explained the addition of Tesla to the S&P 500:

 

[Artful Dodger]

What would it take? $50B? $100B?

Elon answered that indirectly on bty day: "55% reduction in capital cost per gwh"

Doing some quick maths, that's a bit less than $40B capital to build 3twh/yr cell capacity.

Best part? At a 50% CAGR, Tesla can self-fund this rate of growth from operating revenue over the next decade.

Cheers!

 

[Alphacrux]

Very cool:

and compared to the original:

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, you are supposing that the MMs did a lot of naked shorting to suppress the price just before S&P inclusion? Because they knew it was coming? That's insane on their part.

The data support no conclusions as of yet. It is just notable that the proportion of "Short Exempt" shares reported by FINRA yesterday was higher than at any other time when the "Uptick Rule" was not in effect. Like 96th percentile unusual.

Today, that metric is back to normal, falling in at exactly the 50th percentile. I'll file event for future reference. It's often only in retrospect that the relevance of certain events becomes clear.

Cheers!

 

[FrankSG]

This is going to be v.tough to hold down. MMs r in trouble. Only saving grace is the fact that Index Funds don't need to purchase a fixed number of shares, only a fixed value of shares.

This is important. It means that if the shares they purchase today go up in value due to a 'squeeze', their total value of holdings of TSLA goes up with it, and REDUCES their future need to buy shares.

Some forward thinking Index Funds could even become Sellers if they buy what they need early at a realitively low ASP, and then a squeeze sees their value exceed the Fund's requirements.

This is incorrect. You can read my blog post on the topic, or watch Rob Maurer's podcasts on the topic. Both will tell you that the number of shares is more-or-less fixed. The $ value that the index funds needs to buy will move up and down along with the stock price, exactly because the number of share they need to buy is fixed. The S&P's official prospectus will tell you the same.

Thanks for reminding me of this fact: Value vs. No. of Shares requirement might be one of the reasons we don't see a "to the moon" squeeze . I have no idea if this will truly impact, but it's good to store in the back of the mind.

It's not true. Number of shares is fixed. Dollar value moves up and down with the stock price because of it.

Forgive my ignorance, but the 1.01% of the fund weight that S&P set out yesterday was based on Teslas marketcap at that time. If Tesla's marketcap goes up wouldn't that % increase up until the buy date meaning that $51B goes up as well?

Exactly.

 

[FrankSG]

They won't release their decision until 11/30. So the funds can't have any idea how much to buy when until after 11/30.

Where did you find this 11/30 date?

 

[willow_hiller]

Anyone else read about this: The MIC M3 that uses LFP batteries is 450 lbs heavier?
TWEET
I expected the LFP batts to be heavier, but not that much!

The numbers in that tweet are a little bit suspect. Last we heard, the curb weight of the LFP SR+ is 1,745 kg. China: Tesla Approved To Produce Model 3 With LFP Batteries

That is only 100 kg heavier than the curb weight of the NMC SR+ Tesla Model 3 - Wikipedia

If that tweet's "technically permissible maximum laden mass" of 2,139 kg is correct, that's 394 kg for passengers (867 lbs).

 

[Cobbler]

Model SR+ MIC according [to the official manual] page 160: Weight empty: 1756kg with LFP (1625kg previous) Max weight loaded : 2170kg with LFP (2017kg previous)

NextMove claimed 200kg heavier with LfP, while it's actually 131kg? Also upper limit is higher than what NextMove claims. [Their YTvideo shows a scribble picture of a document]

Isn't this a distraction from the VW ID3 with 77KwH battery that actually suffers from this loaded weight limit because a more energy dense battery from LG isn't available yet?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fun Fact: CBNC "analysts" moaning about unprofitable TSLA being added to the S&P 500 reminds me of a certain someone retracting their "concession" tweet...

Cheers!

 

[willow_hiller]

Evidently the S&P Index committee has opened the survey about how to include TSLA to all market participants (including investors): S&P Dow Jones Indices Consultation on the Implementation of Tesla’s Addition to the S&P 500 - S&P Dow Jones Indices

Anyone have compelling arguments for either one or two tranches?

Survey questions:

 

[vikings123]

Where did you find this 11/30 date?

It’s in the video @Curt Renz linked a few posts above yours.

 

[ZeApelido]

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Nov 17, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Sell High; Buy Low..."

Traded: $27,456,183,700.68 ($27.46B)
Volume: 61,381,060
VWAP: $447.31

Close: $441.61 / VWAP: 98.71%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain: $400

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $418.603B / $197.802B = 212.63%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Moving Avg Market Cap: $396.56B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $311.71B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap for 5th tranche ($300B) likely achieved Nov 09, 2020​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 52.2% (52nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 51.4% (52nd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 1.87% of Short Volume (50th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "...What is How do Hedgies roll, Alex?"

QOTD: @avoigt "sell high and buy low is not a good strategy"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!