Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MABMAB]

He went “super-long"

View attachment 609608

I don't believe all this cheap talk after the fact.

 

[Intl Professor]

Anyone know what’s causing macros to fall off a cliff EOD?

Politics until Jan 6-20? Or healthcare until 3/21? Hospitals already shot and health care workers stretched to point of death/resignation or near exhaustion. Moderate impact on economy /s. We are 90% invested in TSLA and 5.4% cash or money market. Rest is big chunk of ARKG.

MIT Alumni(ae) mag reports Moderna founded by MIT profs. ("Arise ye sons of MIT...." /s

 

[corduroy]

Anyone know what’s causing macros to fall off a cliff EOD?

Maybe JP Morgan spooking investors? JPMorgan lays out the nightmare election scenario that could send markets into a tailspin - CNN

 

[adiggs]

I've been trying to game theory what might happen over the next five weeks. Not easy as there are many actors.

Until the index tracker funds are allowed to buy I think it is in no-ones interest to sell (except day traders, high frequency trading and other algos).

The key to this is realizing that a squeeze is happening and that there is guaranteed buying when the index trackers are finally allowed in. So there is no incentive to sell now, no matter what the price the index trackers will be forced to pay.

Short sellers will be forced to cover. That is about 1 million shares on average, but probably concentrated in the first few days. Maybe half the shares shorted will cover, the rest will be part of various hedging strategies, it is possible that most of those cover as well as the hedging strategy becomes mute.

Index benchmark funds, probably have few Tesla shares to sell, but have a large incentive to buy. Regardless of whether they aim to be above, below or equal weight in Tesla in the long term, in the short term they can ride the rise and beat the index. On average they will probably end up slightly under-weight, but that is still a lot of shares they need to buy and hold. Some might decide to wait, and only buy after index inclusion and the share price has settled down, this avoids potential losses but also misses the chance to beat the index. If they all bought to hit equal weight by 21st December that would be about 10 million shares a day, it will be lower than that, perhaps 3-5 million shares a day.

Some index tracker funds will have rules allowing them to buy early, or other mechanisms allowing them to acquire shares, perhaps 0,1 million shares a day at present rising to 1-2 million just before the main index tracker purchase period.

Traders, hedge funds, etc. will probably do a similar analysis to this and so will want to buy and hold until the index trackers start buying. They will try and time the top of the squeeze, which could lead to violent swings.

There could be FOMO among retail and some institutional investors, hard to predict how much, many I think lost out over the summer and will be reluctant to gamble on S&P inclusion again.

Call buying (private and institutional investors) will have to be delta hedged by the MMs, maybe to the tune of 1 million shares.

If there are so many shares being taken out of the immediate float each day and no significant selling, it would normally be up to the MMs to provide liquidity. But they if they did, then they could be on the hook for hundreds of billions, with no realistic prospect of delta hedging.

To sum up until the index tracking funds are allowed to buy there will more than usual buying pressure and it is in no ones interest to sell. This will drive the share price up and up.

After that until the 21st December there will be a fight between those wanting to cash out at the peak and those needing to buy almost at any cost, this is likely to lead to wild price swings, perhaps 20% up or down in a day. The other possibility is a very sharp high peak and then a crash.

By the new year I expect the share price to be returning to fundamentals, so perhaps about $600, but with lots of volatility. This volatility is driven by the different ways of valuing a company EDP, DCF, etc. giving wildly differing valuations and the inherent uncertainty of Tesla's S-curve ramp in production and the introduction of FSD.

This is how I see things evolving as well, with most of the same motivators and actors.

Two additions: the first is that I've seen posts where people seem to think that the big players are out to shaft the retail investors, yet they somehow have a gentlemen's agreement to work together (i.e. - one institution making shares available to another institution, so the 2nd institution isn't hurt too badly getting their pile of shares).

So #1) I think that the better mental model here is that we're all sharks, and the big sharks are perfectly happy to eat their own, as well as us minnows (piranhas?). I don't have the hidden data, but I can see a multi-billion dollar hedge fund decided to buy calls and shares to drain the float, and force the forced buyers into some REALLY unfriendly purchases.

If a hedge fund sees an opportunity to bankrupt another entity, or hold them up bank robber style, then they'll totally do it. And the more likely it'll work, the dramatically more likely they'll put in the effort to make it so.


#2) I sure hope your notion on the timing isn't correct. I also see a pretty sharp reduction in the share price as the front runners move on to other pastures - I've been thinking in terms of January with a slower drop from the peak sometime in mid/late Dec. But I'm just guessing - or maybe wish casting as I'd like to close some of my calls on Jan 1 instead of Dec 31.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not split — I mean a share offering like the previous $5B.

Liked my idea better.

Honestly, don’t care. Tesla should do what they believe is best for the company and the mission moving forward. I’ll benefit regardless.

 

[wipster]

Same for me, I'm in for selling some $700-$800 strikes once the IV gets there.

OK @wipster, time for Tubbiebyebyes here, man the fort will you?

@Lycanthrope will do my friend, after I get back from the doctor's office that is... hell to get old, but it beats the alternative!

 

[MikeAtkinson]

I've somehow gotten some work done today, and have a few free minutes, so let me take a stab;

The items pictured at 13:22 are a series of girder trusses that have yet to receive bridging (for different girder applications, these are sometimes referred to as diaphragms). This open-web steel trusses design is actually incredibly unsexy when it comes to form, but is about as efficient as you can get in terms of function. Basically every commercial application uses some for of this type of trusses system to enclose large, open spaces. I guess I'm the only one that looks up in grocery stores, warehouses, or any other big box store to see what roofing design they used?

The girder trusses are exceptionally light and with the lower parallel chord, easy to install and provide a nice, flat roof. They are also very much an "off the shelf product". The Engineer simply needs to know the dead load of whatever is going on the roof + live load for the region (snowy regions can really impact this), the span and done. Pick from a catalogue. They are also quite cost effective given the standardization. Nothing special, really. Should be noted that this design is normally for the top floor, or for single story buildings. The open web design cannot support heavy loads, such as equipment or anything really beyond a roof above.

They yellow crawler crane is likely barely above into double digits in terms of the rated lift capacity for that entire assembly, even at a decent distance. Those are BIG crawler cranes, looks to be a Liebherr LR 1350 which is rated for 330 MT at a very short lifting distance. (I was poking around the Bigge Crane website, but hard to tell from the drone distance exactly which unit it is) Once the bridging is in, the crane will lift he entire assembly into place and repeat. It's much easier to bolt up something like this at ground level vs. having Ironworkers crawl all over these in the air, safer too. 07:45 shows a more complete version of this assembly.

The somewhat more interesting girders are around the 10:45 mark, which are full depth, closed web. very robust and this likely means there's another floor coming above, which is basically confirmed by the open connection plates atop the columns. You can also see they have landed the bundles of Q decking which will form the basis of the floor. Q decking is another standard warehouse product, which is basically a corrugated metal sheet that receives a concrete overlay. Not that attract, but hyper efficient engineering-wise, as it is the bottom half of what would otherwise need to be formed. (Condominiums do not use Q decking, but floor slabs, which makes their construction much slower, but it's an Apples/Oranges thing in terms of the loading applications)

Looks as though there are a lot of footings underway and that they finally have a good production line for these. I don't expect those to take much longer and they are far enough ahead of the steel that things will really start to take shape soon. 30-Dec-20 is still very ambitious, but this part goes very quickly as it is simply assembly of columns and beams. We also saw this happen quickly in Reno, Shanghai, and Berlin

10:27 shows the concrete columns that we have seen at Berlin. These units are obviously cast off site. Austin seems to be a bit of a hybrid in terms of the factory design. I think Reno was 100% steel, as was Shanghai, whereas Berlin was very concrete heavy, with Austin being a bit of both. A few things to comment on here;

- Chinese typically have the best pricing on steel. It can be a bit of a pain in terms of getting all the right paperwork for various uses in North America, but I have used a lot of Chinese steel over the years.
- Looks like the column design is identical, so I would wager the now-departed Mr. Gigafactory worked hard to develop a template for these gigafactories that takes into account the intended production lines/equipment and looks at the cost of local materials to make a determination if it will be concrete or steel.
- The concrete vs. steel debate is basically governed by local availability and shipping cost. It's normally a specialized case for an Engineer to go against the logical choice, usually because the lower cost option can't provided the needed geometry or loading requirements. My line of work is more on the Civil-side, but I've done lots of small bridges and the steel vs. concrete debate is always ongoing and normally a function of the market rate for a kg/lb of steel. Concrete normally wins as it is easy to make here in Canada.

Big concrete pour going on at 10:54. No idea what this thing is, but it will be large, and contained, whatever it is. I've not seen large walls like this in the past, might be the Gigapress or something like that. This area will be filled in around the walls once they are done, but this does look to be unique from the other factories.

There's also a weird-shaped excavation at 09:55 I can't quite figure out. It has been very precisely cut, which is unusual.

Overall, glad to see they are running 24 hours shifts with this. I suspect they had a lot of nagging problem related to subgrade strength which is why you see the Geopier/Stone Column excavators still on site drilling away. Hoping it doesn't rain much down there in the winter months, as the whole site could be a real mess again if it does.

Concur with most of this.

The large pit is almost certainly presses, there are similar vibration isolation foundations, but they seem to be of a different design than those at Berlin.

The mostly filled in small pit has a counterpart at Berlin, up against the wall of the paint shop. It too has a vibration isolation foundation, perhaps for a smaller stamping machine?

The concrete pillars are of a similar shape to those holding the overhead gantry cranes at Berlin, so possibly used to switch dies.

I can't work out what the weird-shaped excavation is either, the casting machines at Berlin have a bigger deeper concrete base than that, each notch is not wide enough for the casting machine foundation. My best guess is that each notch is for the foundations of a pillar, and that the main foundation is long and thin, the pillars hold an overhead gantry crane.

The geopier work is progressing well, they are keeping ahead of the pillar foundations. There are also concrete piers being placed in the areas which were swamps/lakes seemingly about twice as deep.

I'm surprised we have seen no drainage provision, a storm could lead to a lot of problems.

 

[lafrisbee]

I've somehow gotten some work done today, and have a few free minutes, so let me take a stab;

The items pictured at 13:22 are a series of girder trusses that have yet to receive bridging (for different girder applications, these are sometimes referred to as diaphragms). This open-web steel trusses design is actually incredibly unsexy when it comes to form, but is about as efficient as you can get in terms of function. Basically every commercial application uses some for of this type of trusses system to enclose large, open spaces. I guess I'm the only one that looks up in grocery stores, warehouses, or any other big box store to see what roofing design they used?

The girder trusses are exceptionally light and with the lower parallel chord, easy to install and provide a nice, flat roof. They are also very much an "off the shelf product". The Engineer simply needs to know the dead load of whatever is going on the roof + live load for the region (snowy regions can really impact this), the span and done. Pick from a catalogue. They are also quite cost effective given the standardization. Nothing special, really. Should be noted that this design is normally for the top floor, or for single story buildings. The open web design cannot support heavy loads, such as equipment or anything really beyond a roof above.

They yellow crawler crane is likely barely above into double digits in terms of the rated lift capacity for that entire assembly, even at a decent distance. Those are BIG crawler cranes, looks to be a Liebherr LR 1350 which is rated for 330 MT at a very short lifting distance. (I was poking around the Bigge Crane website, but hard to tell from the drone distance exactly which unit it is) Once the bridging is in, the crane will lift he entire assembly into place and repeat. It's much easier to bolt up something like this at ground level vs. having Ironworkers crawl all over these in the air, safer too. 07:45 shows a more complete version of this assembly.

The somewhat more interesting girders are around the 10:45 mark, which are full depth, closed web. very robust and this likely means there's another floor coming above, which is basically confirmed by the open connection plates atop the columns. You can also see they have landed the bundles of Q decking which will form the basis of the floor. Q decking is another standard warehouse product, which is basically a corrugated metal sheet that receives a concrete overlay. Not that attract, but hyper efficient engineering-wise, as it is the bottom half of what would otherwise need to be formed. (Condominiums do not use Q decking, but floor slabs, which makes their construction much slower, but it's an Apples/Oranges thing in terms of the loading applications)

Looks as though there are a lot of footings underway and that they finally have a good production line for these. I don't expect those to take much longer and they are far enough ahead of the steel that things will really start to take shape soon. 30-Dec-20 is still very ambitious, but this part goes very quickly as it is simply assembly of columns and beams. We also saw this happen quickly in Reno, Shanghai, and Berlin

10:27 shows the concrete columns that we have seen at Berlin. These units are obviously cast off site. Austin seems to be a bit of a hybrid in terms of the factory design. I think Reno was 100% steel, as was Shanghai, whereas Berlin was very concrete heavy, with Austin being a bit of both. A few things to comment on here;

- Chinese typically have the best pricing on steel. It can be a bit of a pain in terms of getting all the right paperwork for various uses in North America, but I have used a lot of Chinese steel over the years.
- Looks like the column design is identical, so I would wager the now-departed Mr. Gigafactory worked hard to develop a template for these gigafactories that takes into account the intended production lines/equipment and looks at the cost of local materials to make a determination if it will be concrete or steel.
- The concrete vs. steel debate is basically governed by local availability and shipping cost. It's normally a specialized case for an Engineer to go against the logical choice, usually because the lower cost option can't provided the needed geometry or loading requirements. My line of work is more on the Civil-side, but I've done lots of small bridges and the steel vs. concrete debate is always ongoing and normally a function of the market rate for a kg/lb of steel. Concrete normally wins as it is easy to make here in Canada.

Big concrete pour going on at 10:54. No idea what this thing is, but it will be large, and contained, whatever it is. I've not seen large walls like this in the past, might be the Gigapress or something like that. This area will be filled in around the walls once they are done, but this does look to be unique from the other factories.

There's also a weird-shaped excavation at 09:55 I can't quite figure out. It has been very precisely cut, which is unusual.

Overall, glad to see they are running 24 hours shifts with this. I suspect they had a lot of nagging problem related to subgrade strength which is why you see the Geopier/Stone Column excavators still on site drilling away. Hoping it doesn't rain much down there in the winter months, as the whole site could be a real mess again if it does.

I figure your day job is working for DARPA analyzing satellite images in real time.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Sorry guys. With NKLA +15.39% today, it just does not feel like at win for TSLA +10.29%
The only good news is that with NIO -3.28% at least we don't have to listen to @Quesder whine about having more Nio than Tesla.

 

[BornToFly]

Today was joyous, but exhausting. I don't normally spend this much of my day staring at the ticker. Someone knock me out and wake me up on Dec. 21st!

 

[kanweg]

I've been trying to game theory what might happen over the next five weeks. Not easy as there are many actors.

Snip

To sum up until the index tracking funds are allowed to buy there will more than usual buying pressure and it is in no ones interest to sell. This will drive the share price up and up.
.

but like index funds being forced to buy, aren’t ETFs like ARK with limits on the percentage of their funds a stock may hold be forced to sell, and doesn’t that free up shares?

 

[dl003]

This week has been another game of gamma squeeze. I doubt we'll get to & hold on to 500 before December but we'll see. I saw lots of profit taking by the end there so we will probably test 465 before Monday.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

This is how I see things evolving as well, with most of the same motivators and actors.

Two additions: the first is that I've seen posts where people seem to think that the big players are out to shaft the retail investors, yet they somehow have a gentlemen's agreement to work together (i.e. - one institution making shares available to another institution, so the 2nd institution isn't hurt too badly getting their pile of shares).

So #1) I think that the better mental model here is that we're all sharks, and the big sharks are perfectly happy to eat their own, as well as us minnows (piranhas?). I don't have the hidden data, but I can see a multi-billion dollar hedge fund decided to buy calls and shares to drain the float, and force the forced buyers into some REALLY unfriendly purchases.

If a hedge fund sees an opportunity to bankrupt another entity, or hold them up bank robber style, then they'll totally do it. And the more likely it'll work, the dramatically more likely they'll put in the effort to make it so.


#2) I sure hope your notion on the timing isn't correct. I also see a pretty sharp reduction in the share price as the front runners move on to other pastures - I've been thinking in terms of January with a slower drop from the peak sometime in mid/late Dec. But I'm just guessing - or maybe wish casting as I'd like to close some of my calls on Jan 1 instead of Dec 31.

#1) I agree with the shark analogy. Interests mainly coincide (but not the MMs) until index trackers can buy, then it is a feeding frenzy.

#2) Timing the market is just about impossible, so my ideas on timing are probably not correct.

 

[MP3Mike]

but like index funds being forced to buy, aren’t ETFs like ARK with limits on the percentage of their funds a stock may hold be forced to sell, and doesn’t that free up shares?

I don't think ARK has a hard limit that requires selling. They can't buy past 10%, but she has said that they can let it run to 13-15%.

As of yesterday their funds were 9.21%, 9.77%, and 10.59% TSLA. So they have lots of room to run.

Even with the TSLA gains today ARKK is down, so they may decide to take some of their TSLA winnings and move them into their other holdings even before they are required to.

 

[Robocop]

but like index funds being forced to buy, aren’t ETFs like ARK with limits on the percentage of their funds a stock may hold be forced to sell, and doesn’t that free up shares?

Yes but there's a lot more pressure on the buy side, funds needing to sell TSLA will be less common.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

but like index funds being forced to buy, aren’t ETFs like ARK with limits on the percentage of their funds a stock may hold be forced to sell, and doesn’t that free up shares?

Perhaps, but ARKs rules are quite flexible, they will sell eventually but maybe not for a few weeks. Don't know about other ETFs, they all have their own trading rules, many are probably not maxed out on TSLA so don't have to sell after a run-up.

 

[DeadCham7]

Be careful. TT007 has been wrong so much he is basically a broken clock. I know I'm not alone when I say I lost a lot of money listening to him on this forum before he was chased away.

He's trade idea indeed make sense. He does give me good inspiration on trade ideas. He does invest and set the target price aggressively but what matter is risk ratio. And DITM call does have awesome RR. No know can time the market and I believe we all know the deal. It's investor's duty to do their own HW.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Welcome to FU money.

It's a bummer. Soon you'll be reminiscing about how you used to be so driven, smart and on the ball.

Man. I still get called by the odd recruiter once in a while. One called today, and the first thought on my mind was "well, at the current rate, I'm honestly not sure that I could be bothered to take any regular paid job a year or two from now". I managed to keep a straight face - thankfully not at the point where I'll risk blurting that out loud yet. But my professional ambitions have moved distinctly closer to "what do I really want to spend my time on?" rather than "how do I make mucho dinaros as an in-demand employee" over the last six months.

Hopefully it'll be something slightly more ambitious than leveling up my Diablo 2 character and reading sci-fi, but let's not rule anything out yet

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don't think ARK has a hard limit that requires selling. They can't buy past 10%, but she has said that they can let it run to 13-15%.

As of yesterday their funds were 9.21%, 9.77%, and 10.59% TSLA. So they have lots of room to run.

Even with the TSLA gains today ARKK is down, so they may decide to take some of their TSLA winnings and move them into their other holdings even before they are required to.

Don’t forget about @Papafox 's discovery of the big TSLA divestitures of the likes of Baillie Gifford and Fidelity. As the SP goes up, their portfolio diversities get more out of whack and they may start dumping given eager buyers.

 

[ZeApelido]

This week has been another game of gamma squeeze. I doubt we'll get to & hold on to 500 before December but we'll see. I saw lots of profit taking by the end there so we will probably test 465 before Monday.

That was macros dumping though.