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So you don’t think this guy is intentional? Let me tell you about an island I have for sale —

This guy has years of history around Tesla. He’s a scumbag.

You already know I don't want no stinking island. ;)

I asked for evidence that Mr. Zipper was doing this to intentionally harm Tesla but none was forthcoming. But you know me, I'm usually the first to call out FUDsters.
 
This post is intended to be about Tesla factory operations, not COVID. Please stay on topic.

Alameda County, where the Fremont factory is located, has gone purple (the current worst stage of COVID mess) like most of the rest of California. See https://covid-19.acgov.org/covid19-assets/docs/press/press-release-2020.11.19.pdf. I'm located in the next county over, Santa Clara, which is also purple. New cases are setting records daily, as are hospitalizations and ICU occupancy. The indications are that this is only going to get worse in the short term. Dire warnings abound.

Anybody have any guesses as to how this may affect the Tesla factory? So far Tesla has been left alone (declared essential), but I don't think that will continue to be the case if the hospital system breaks down. And if things get much worse I don't think Elon tweeting about FREEDOM will carry any weight. They'll invent a new category worse than purple and send everybody home.

Alameda County's general COVID information page:
https://covid-19.acgov.org/index.page

I continue to think that Tesla's operations will continue uninterrupted, but policy makers in California are certainly sounding the alarm:

"California’s intensive care units could be overloaded by the middle of December, and its hospitals could be dangerously close to full by Christmas, according to sobering projections that Gov. Gavin Newsom presented on Monday.

...

“If these trends continue, California will need to take drastic action,” Mr. Newsom said during a virtual briefing, adding that more severe restrictions, including full stay-at-home orders, could come within the next few days.

...

Officials had spent the weekend talking with local leaders and health care providers about their concerns, said Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state’s secretary of health and human services, who also spoke during the Monday briefing.

“Everything is on the table, in terms of how we guide the state through this,” he said. “And we want to make sure what we do is impactful and as time-limited as possible.”"

Tesla's status as essential will likely continue to keep it exempt from any statewide "stay at home" orders issued by the Governor, and hopefully the work Tesla did earlier this year was enough to establish a rapport with local health officials and keep them exempt from local measures should Alameda county really want to bring the hammer down. But appointed and elected officials are certainly capable of making poor decisions, so I wouldn't rule a shutdown out.

Did you lose some of your position? ;)

Anyway, I don't expect it will have any significant impact. If you look at the Bing COVID tracker you will see the number of new cases peaked before Thanksgiving on 11/21/2020. I suspect this is due in part due to increased testing before Thanksgiving travel plans. Only time will tell but I think the rates will start going down over the next two weeks. There might be a small spike this week from Thanksgiving transmission but it's unlikely to have an impact on Tesla employees ability to run the factory.

For what it's worth, case data has been interrupted by the Thanksgiving holiday. Other metrics, primarily hospitalizations, have not, and point to a continued increase in transmission. It will take a few days / weeks for the case data to catch up. This phenomenon occurred around Labor Day as well.
 
IV dropping like a brick over the last few hours. Short term gamblers may get some deals on options if they think a squeeze is still around the corner.
Interesting how this happens. I assumed any IV change would occur immediately on open, as the big news happened overnight. The buzzsaw up-down activity shows strong will to move, plus common sense says that just one low-volume afternoon should not impact one's predictions for the next few weeks.
 
Color me amazed we are locked in at $580...

Note there are more Calls with a strike of $585 and up while in the Puts department it $575 and down. $580 is about equal altho there are slightly more Puts. THEY are really good at knowing where the market wants the price to be. There is still probably not as many options sold in this range as THEY would like. Hopefully ya'll start buying options in the strike range of $560-$580. Where are those day traders when you need them?

View attachment 613496


Below is just rambling....
This could be very careful buying by whichever funds wants to buy. Low volume today so far. I guess IF those that follow the SP500 fund bought in last week? or was that retail? hmmm... someone want to figure out... if volume at 30M is a relatively flat SP and the volume above that last week was someone's acquiring, how much was acquired last week? 40M-80M shares? (the volume over 30M each day)
IF that is true then the SP500 funds can buy in and only raise the SP another $80-$100 if they spread it out over the week.

I've been watching the Max Pain chart and noticed that cluster--hard not to.

I think the SP will pop and they'll only be able to stop it from capping 600 by end of the week, and the puts will rise to match and make it slightly less painful.

I think maybe only retail, and some funds bought last week. I think there are still some front runners, or people who match the SP500 yet to buy in, since they didn't have a set schedule before about inclusion, same with the people actually in the SP500 who can't really toggle their holdings until they learn how exactly they need to trim with whichever company is getting the boot, and other holdings to meet the weight requirements.
 
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How much buying pressure pushed us to $580? How much buying pressure is remaining in the inclusion? I don't know the exact answer to those two questions but I'm positive that the latter is far larger than the former.

You_Could_Not_Live_With_Your_Own_Failure_Thanos_Meme_Maker (1).jpeg


Who is this Ellen Musk?
Is that Space Karen?
 
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You already know I don't want no stinking island. ;)

I asked for evidence that Mr. Zipper was doing this to intentionally harm Tesla but none was forthcoming. But you know me, I'm usually the first to call out FUDsters.

How about this one: https://twitter.com/DavidZipper/status/1275052286943866880

Mr. Zipper's other Slate posts are all about having people leave cars, so he has an ax to grind with anything that shifts the public preference in the other direction.
 
IV dropping like a brick over the last few hours. Short term gamblers may get some deals on options if they think a squeeze is still around the corner.

Makes sense really. Following FrankSG's blog post about how many shares the market makers hold as part of their delta hedging, with the S&P's decision to make the inclusion happen in just one tranche, the Dec 4th and Dec 11th options should now not be as interesting. So traders front-running the index should be closing their call Dec 4th and 11th call options now. When that happens, the market makers can sell their delta-hedged shares. The fact that the shares aren't dropping like a rock is probably due to those same call sellers trading their options for shares due to how expensive options have gotten.