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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Showroom anecdotal:
Just visited Stanford showroom(only a few miles from Fremont)
Just visited Stanford showroom(only a few miles from Fremont)
- Completely empty, no display car at all. Plenty of customer and sales rep activities.
- Rep said they sold the 3 & Y display cars yesterday, X last week. All for quater end push.
- One year free charging for incentive to take delivery before year end, no other incentive.
- Still possible to take delivery this year, they have not gotten the cut off notification yet(this store should be one of the last to receive cut off), could come in anytime.
- Rep said he doesn’t know anything about whether a change is coming to S or X, good answer, possibly honest answer too.
With software, that's not true. Let's suppose it is true though. In the 10 to 20 years it takes the competitors to catch up and drive those margins down, Tesla will have used the massive revenues from those years to take over the world.
Personally, I don't need FSD to consider Tesla the best company in the world to invest in.
Doing what Tesla did in two years. This seems a stretch. Where do they get the vehicles for the data? Where do they get the developers? I'd say if they can do it in as little as five years, they would beat expectations by a large margin. They're still years behind on just the basic car.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Well it doesn't really matter if it takes 3,4 or 5 years. The end result is that Tesla would not make $3 trillion a year profit from robotaxis alone 10 years from now. Heck, even if no one competes Tesla wouldn't make $3 trillion 10 years from now. At least not from robotaxis alone.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Except the TSLA sell-off began at 3:00 pm not 3:30. This was a head fake to scare the last of the weak longs into selling.
It worked on some weak shorts too, one of whom appeared on CNBC to explain how she had placed a "Short on Market Close"
sell order during the day, then cancelled it around 3:30 when she saw the big drop (she's afraid of the crowded short trade).
Best part? She says that due to the NOCP of $695, she would have made money because she would have bought to close quickly during the After-hrs session, for a quick profit of ~$20/share. But she didn't because she flinced for the head fake. She says now she feels worse than she did on Thursday, while having neither bought or sold any TSLA shares.
TL:dr HODL
Cheers!
Well worth watching.
Only real criticism on the methodology is in the time horizon. Because Tesla's growth rate is much higher than the discount rate, the time horizon over which you look makes a lot of difference to the valuation. Going from a time horizon of 2030 which Warren uses to one of 2028 approximately halves the valuation for today (assuming 50% growth rate and 5% discount rate, that is (1.5/1.05) ^ 2 ~= 2.0 ).
A more sophisticated model would use S curves for production ramps and robotaxi rake up rates.
Scenarios where competition comes to robotaxi services (perhaps by a break up of a Tesla monopoly) leading to low profits per mile should also be considered.
Edit: there is another methodological error, quite a subtle one. He takes the various scenarios, applies different sets of probability to them to get a set of share prices then uses beliefs in those possible sets. Should really just use one probability set to get a probability distribution of the share price.
Edit: there are other ways of looking at the future business just from the car manufacturer standpoint that give high market capitalisation.
e.g. compare to Apple, cars cost 30x more than phones, but volumes are 10x less, so with similar margins to Apple expect a market capitalisation of 3x as much. [ = $6T market cap ]
e.g. like Apple it is possible that Tesla will capture over 100% of the car manufacturing profits in a few years time (a few other OEMs will break even or make a small profit, but most will be suffering losses). It would be reasonable for Tesla to be valued as much as the rest of the industry combined, as over 50% of most OEMs is in liabilities then Tesla should have a market cap of more than twice the rest of the industry combined. [ = $1.5T market cap ]
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It just occurred to me that Tesla may be doing these end of quarter flushes of showroom inventory not solely to reach their aggressive growth targets. They may also do so because the cars are already not representative of the current product: That is how fast Tesla is innovating.
After all, we’ve heard how they continuously integrate improvements. This as opposed to just adding very small ‘innovations’ occasionally with a new model year like a legacy ICE OEM.
Indeed, Biden keeps pandering to unions even after the election, while seeming to ignore contented workers with no desire to join or form a union, particularly the UAW. But that could just be to mollify UAW members who are fearing Biden's push for EVs. Tesla supporters really should just look the other way regarding such speechifying.
Let's not forget that it is Congress than makes the laws followed by a president's signature. Vetoes can be overridden. Of course agencies within an administration have considerable leeway regarding the writing of regulations.
In any event, new laws and regulations encouraging alternative energy and EVs may help Tesla more than any other company, no matter any political words designed to cheer union workers.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
I wouldn’t even be surprised. There’s a portion of the left that really hates Elon/Tesla.
I want to see the math on this, because the traditional automakers have very complex finances. They have what are basically captive banks to run their financing operations, separate financial entities for their manufacturing and administrative operations, and yes their debt is all heavily collateralized by their financing arms and their pension obligations are also broken out separately. Basically I don't have any idea how much a company like Ford, VW, or Toyota is actually worth because their finances are so byzantine and opaque. With Tesla, the company's finances are very straightforward by comparison.
Maybe a bit off topic; but ending Covid would be great for the stock market and humans everywhere...and since I don’t do fb anymore because Elon told me to delete it, just felt like sharing.
~~~Thank you. BUT:
There are to be NO more posts about someone receiving his or her vaccine. First, they really have nothing to do with this TSLA narrative, and second, the poster ought to be more than a little sympathetic to those who have only to sit at home and wait.~~~
NO EXCEPTIONS
~~~Thank you. BUT:
There are to be NO more posts about someone receiving his or her vaccine. First, they really have nothing to do with this TSLA narrative, and second, the poster ought to be more than a little sympathetic to those who have only to sit at home and wait.~~~
NO EXCEPTIONS
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The market believes in pre-FSD. Basically throw in a few bones, ends up in a few analyst's future models(as a software only sale as the base cases, and robotaxies as the bull case) for the time being. Post FSD will double the valuation of Tsla overnight. So far we are in Pre-FSD...the benefit of the doubt stage like how Nio may take over China kind of sentiment..maybe..maybe not. Nikola may come out with a real product..maybe not.
You seriously think the market sees Tesla solving FSD first? And that this is priced in?
were there many customers? The one in Dublin is bustling with prospective customers on the weekends.
I sometimes think all the attention that the main stream media gives them on their rising stock price, and now on S&P inclusion, is amazing (free) advertising.
This got me itching to do some very rough napkin math to ballpark a 2030 PT from two different angles.
Angle 1 - Revenue multiples using energy + auto TAMs
Assumptions:
- EVs are 100% of new car production in 2030
- Quick google showed an energy TAM of ~1.5T and quick math on 100m vehicles produced a year x 25k ASP gets us 2.5T. So I'll call it 2T TAM for both totaling 4T
- 5% market share across both TAMs. This is very conservative on the auto side, given EV market share we've already seen, and very bullish on the energy side giving benefit of the doubt to Elon's guidance on energy side quickly catching up to auto revenue
2030 @ 5% of 4T TAM = 200B
5x: 1T mkt cap, PT: $1,315 <-- very conservative for a company growing @ 40-50% CAGR
10x: 2T, PT: $2,630
20x: 4T, PT: $5,260
50x: 10T, PT: ~$13,000 <-- We've seen crazier things, like NKLA's valuation for instance
Angle 2 - Stretching ARK's 2018 generated 2024 model
For anyone that doesn't already have it, here's ARK's open source TSLA model: ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model
Turning our attention to the Tesla Valuation tab, we can make some assumptions about 2030. Here, I'm going to adjust just one variable:
1. Percent of all Teslas in autonomous fleet in 2024: 330%
This bumps the model from 10m vehicles in the fleet to 33m to better reflect the size of the fleet by the end of 2030. Still conservative given Elon's guidance on 20m produced in 2030 alone.
Revenue: 1.1T
Suggested Price: ~$6,800 (34k pre-split) - implies a 4.5-5x revenue multiple
LightngMcQueen
Aspirationally Rational
The whole situation is "irregular": Ray Dalio devoting last few years to build "his legacy", then seriously tarnishing his legacy to lobby all over media to accommodate Mainland Chinese business interests, until it started to serious backfire in Summer and now this unfortunate event.
This is just a speculation but looks to me that no one is really free, and more wealth does not make you more free.
My advice to Teslanaires ... keep quiet about your new wealth.
If legislation goes through under Biden to promote EVs and the dreaded unions that many legacy US automakers are saddled with, it won't be an efficient use of taxpayer dollars, but it will still be a net benefit for Tesla. I don't understand the worry.
Plus, Tesla is just going to put anyone who can't compete out of business, anyway.
Edit: they're also much more than just an EV manufacturer, in case you didn't already know...
Plus, Tesla is just going to put anyone who can't compete out of business, anyway.
Edit: they're also much more than just an EV manufacturer, in case you didn't already know...
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