Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mikevbf]

I am happy to see Tesla signing a 5 year contract with Yuhua, a Chinese lithium company. I hope to see a lot more of these contracts securing battery materials soon.
China's Yahua agrees five-year deal to supply lithium to Tesla

 

[Nocturnal]

For me the system is pretty simple. A good advisor or analyst spends maybe 3-5h / week on average on each stock they are considering. They might have better information sources or better training so I give them a 50% effectiveness boost. So in effect they spend then 4.5-7.6h/week. If you are spending more time studying a single stock then them, you've got an information advantage. If you know engineering or other advanced subject matters relevant for the stock in question you also get an effectiveness boost. Compare your time spent, if it's decidedly higher, then you should be able to trade on that advantage. Otherwise index investing will give you average returns. That's why my investment is 97% TSLA and about 3% index funds now. Last October it was about 25% index funds.

Keep in mind the comparison is to a good financial advisor or analyst not one average or below.

I'd also add this, how many fund managers drive a Tesla each day and interact with other owners? That's a HUGE leg up.

I used to be in the camp that said beating the market was impossible, and I think that's true for fund managers for many of the reasons discussed. There is also the issue of scale. If I jump into a stock big time, nobody notices. Funds have issues with the stock moving because of their buying/selling.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Most of the financial ppl I deal with now try to pry into what I am working on next. They do seem to notice if you out perform others for a couple of years.

My lawyer is now regretting not buying TSLA at $70 when I first talked about it with him. The reply was always "it's too expensive".

My hedgie friend still think it's all hype. That it' impossible for good fund managers, let along normal ppl to beat yhe market. Goes to show that even professionals have no clue and ppl's job don't dictate if they give good advice. But if anyone were to stop me on the street and ask me about financial advice. I'd point them to these professionals.

To be fair, TSLA will always be overvalued for the conventional metrics they use.

They have to start using the new 15 startups-in-1 metrics we are using here on these forums.

However, what is discussed on TMC stays on TMC, right?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Looking at Tesla's new compare models page, the chosen statistics (namely cargo capacity and price) point right at the value of the Y over the S:
Tesla Website Launches New 'Compare Models' Page, Further Enhancing Buying Process

The cargo comparison is misleading. The Model S’ 28 cubic feet is without the seats folded. The Model Y’s 68 cubic feet is with the seats folded.

 

[corduroy]

TSLA holding up well despite a lot of free-fall this morning.

Seems like heck of a day to pick up some ARKG.

I did just that. I have been waiting for a dip.

 

[JustMe]

One of the sources for the (average) of 10 kg of lithium per battery is this one: Why Lithium Could Be a New Risk for Tesla and Other Electric-Vehicle Makers

The number of 63 kg you found probably refers to a compound with lithium. Lithium carbonate Li2CO3 for instance contains only 19% lithium. So 63 kg of lithium carbonate equals 12 kg of lithium.

This is a good point, but the contract is for the supply of battery grade lithium hydroxide - LiOH, which is ~ 29% Lithium by mass (7/24).

$630-880 million lithium hydroxide at current spot price of $7,600/ton would yield 100,000 tons of LiOH. 29% of 100 million kg is 29 million kg of Li. At 10 kg/car that yields 2.9 million cars, or 600,000 car batteries per year. With such a big contract, Tesla must be getting more Li/$, so this is definitely a lower limit.

Lithium price spotlight - Weekly price updates | Fastmarkets

 

[Nocturnal]

Knock on wood, but it's such a weird/great feeling when TSLA is the most stable component of my portfolio on a given day.

I did just that. I have been waiting for a dip.

Added a bunch.

 

[HG Wells]

Just bought a lotto ticket for thursday at 660

 

[StealthP3D]

Okay, so that's two posting the same wonderful news story, but, please, help me understand this.

Explain this as if I'm a six-year old: What do you do about cash flow since TSLA pays no dividends?

Are the "retire early" folks here just selling to create a bucket of money and then hoping it lasts before they kick the bucket?

Thanks!

It's important to realize that $1 million is not all it was cracked up to be. Don't let numbers that might look big fool you.

$10 million is the new $1 million. So don't minimize healthcare costs if you plan to retire young and live in the country with the least efficient health care in the world. My wife and I are approaching 60 in a couple of years and our private health insurance has jumped in price every year for as long as I can remember and is now $25K/year and it doesn't really cover many things you might need until another $10k/year is spent out of pocket. We are both healthier than average.

That's the bad news. The good news is that the first $1 million is the hardest.

 

[Chocochip]

View attachment 622057

Sorry I could not attach this image to my post above.

Not sure how to interpret this in the context of an expected Model S and/or X "refresh" over the holidays. Should we expect no change in pricing for the S? That would be a major feat from Tesla.

 

[mongo]

The cargo comparison is misleading. The Model S’ 28 cubic feet is without the seats folded. The Model Y’s 68 cubic feet is with the seats folded.

Yar.
S total cargo (front+rear, seats folded) is 60.2 cu ft. Although, the usability is less due to trunk vs hatch.

3 is called out as 15 in the manual.

Mod: edit at member request. --ggr.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm not so sure anymore. Sure, the initial fires did significant damage to TSLA and Tesla but for whatever reason better discussed elsewhere, they seem to have little effect anymore. Just look at how big an issue the 5 Bolt fires have been on GM and Bolt resale values and the negative connotations. Maybe it's because these too are their first foray into this nighmare or it could be that 5/70,000 is a much worse metric than whatever the number of Tesla fires there have been (spontaneously) spread over 1,000,000 cars.

But the recent report of the Tesla fire that appears to have happened a few weeks ago is shrugged off like water on a ducks back.
Maybe too, FSD non-lethal accidents will have little effect much like current Autopilot fender benders do. I'm taking/hoping for a more optimistic outlook.

Fire? I didn't know (and to your point).

OT (~45%):
I hope $TSLA shrugs off any fender-benders as well, but we shouldn't forget what happened with Waymo at first. No fault on Waymo's part, but it was in the headlines everywhere and seemed to trigger a lot of safety debate and system comparisons.

By contrast, about 1 yr ago, a Waymo rear-ended a vehicle that cut them off then stopped. The Waymo driver was hurt, but was not on AP (Really? Or did they simply take over?). I never heard about this one. So if/when FSD is involved, the megaphones come out. It's a fear that many will harbor, and the shorts will play it like a fiddle.

I just hope Tesla has a better failsafe than what we know so far. FSD is quasi baked into the SP, so any cracks in the system that lead to an accident would be catalyst for an exaggerated bear attack (and why I'm fine with any delays in the Beta mass rollout).

 

[redan]

Anywhere between $650 and $670 would suit the MM's this week, all neutral there as of now:

I'm perfectly happy in the $650+ range. Remember just six weeks ago when we were low $400s? I'm liking the $650 - $670 range for a nice base before the next move up!

 

[StealthP3D]

Purely speculating here on my part, but I think the topic of Elon's Next CEO Comp. package had to come up yesterday during his Lanai Lūʻau w. Larry...

I don't see either Ellison or Musk bringing this subject up out of the blue.

So, no, probably not. They have much more interesting things to talk about and time is short. In fact, it would actually be improper for them to discuss it at all (since Ellison is on the BoD).

 

[ggr]

Yar.
S total cargo (front+rear, seats folded) is 60.2 cu ft. Although, the usability is less due to trunk vs hatch.

Que? The S is a hatch, and I've fitted some amazing things in there (like a full sized recycle bin...)[/QUOTE]

 

[goinfraftw]

Interesting, but what about "stonks"?

Thhaattt I have no idea about. Tbh, from a layperson seeing all of this transpire from his home, the situation seems like the following:

1. We have a new POTUS that's getting obstructed, but managing through it
2. We have an exiting POTUS and admin hellbent on doing nothing (maybe not being able to?) and complaining about it
3. We have a worldwide population getting triggered and reacting differently based on this.
~~~Moderator Note: This poster, and a lot of other participants, are new here so this mention occurs as a very friendly note to alert all that, most especially in this extremely fractious time, even the most tenuous reference to, let alone discussion of politics is a 760kV third rail that derails all. It has been quite a long while since Mods have had to step in to delete posts or discipline offenders....please let’s keep that streak going.
As an important point of clarification, sobersided, dispassionate discussion of POLICY as it relates to Tesla is an allowable, appropriate and encouraged topic of discussion. But do not step on that 3rd rail~~~
I have routinely been going out for drives to local downtown areas to see how the response has been like throughout COVID. A higher percentage for the affluent are YOLO'ing (especially in affluent areas), the major cities are handling the lockdown appropriately and well barring the circumstances and are mostly barren (at least here in CA), and a many are suffering from not being able to have the same ability and empowerment for life that they're used to pre-COVID...and either taking it out themselves or others for months -> year. The numbers are bad.

Frankly, it's limbo territory and 7.8B people are all along for the ride. TSLA is innovating through this insane scenario. This feels like a setup for some ugly realizations in 2021 unless its properly managed...things are definitely not going to go back to the same post-COVID with climate change due up to disrupt, IMO. This is weird and going to continue to be weird.

My 2 cents.

 

[StealthP3D]

Ironically we’re in the safest part of the FSD program (until we hit no supervision necessary) where users pay even more attention than when they drive themselves.

The great unknown is how vigilant users will be when the cars can go 1 month without intervention. Human intuition will start to falsely tell you it’s perfectly safe to not watch closely anymore.

Human nature already tells most drivers they don't need to watch (themselves) very closely. If you think Autopilot is dangerous, just look at a car driven by human autopilot!

That's why there are so many avoidable accidents. There will still be accidents with FSD. As long as the accident/injury rate goes down, not up, it will be a huge step forward. Eventually, the rate will go to nearly zero (relative to the current accident rate).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Human nature already tells most drivers they don't need to watch (themselves) very closely. If you think Autopilot is dangerous, just look at a car driven by human autopilot!

That's why there are so many avoidable accidents. There will still be accidents with FSD. As long as the accident/injury rate goes down, not up, it will be a huge step forward. Eventually, the rate will go to nearly zero (relative to the current accident rate).

I drive really well with human autopilot.....esp when my wife is nagging in the front passenger seat

 

[thx1139]

Watching a couple FSD beta videos this morning in snowy conditions. I dont think it is wise to release FSD to masses during winter unless they have confidence in snow driving or can detect snowy conditions and not allow FSD in those conditions.

 

[gabeincal]

TSLA holding up well despite a lot of free-fall this morning.

Seems like heck of a day to pick up some ARKG.

Gee, thanks. Wanted to pick up some of those... Now own 200