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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

chronoreverse

Member
Oct 14, 2020
252
669
Vancouver
I'd be surprised if there isn't more to this than the headline - I find it hard to believe that a solid state battery could be ready for prime time and NIO is the one to get there first - all while not hearing a lot of rumours about it.

What are the costs, charging, performance in cold temperature specs?
Q4 2022 is basically code for "not 2022" which then puts it basically where QS is with a dash of exuberance. It also just about matches Tesla's timeline for reaching 400Wh/kg in 2023. Also, 910km @ 150kWh is 165Wk/km vs 112Wh/km for the M3 using the same MIIT cycle; in a word, ugly.

As for the computer, high "FLOPS" is easy to achieve nowadays. GPU's achieved >1TFLOPS 10 years ago so 4.2TFLOPS isn't astounding in 2021 (a couple of modern phone SoC's have this much too). It's also irrelevant as a measure for AI performance.


So while not putting down NIO's announcement altogether, it does sound like it's a numbers game announcement and not entirely as earthshattering as it's made to seem. Now if they had announced that it's ready for sale this year in 2021, then it would be seismic.
 
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Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,692
25,274
US
Q4 2022 is basically code for "not 2022" which then puts it basically where QS is with a dash of exuberance. It also just about matches Tesla's timeline for reaching 400Wh/kg in 2023. Also, 910km @ 150kWh is 165Wk/km vs 112Wh/km for the M3 using the same MIIT cycle; in a word, ugly.

As for the computer, high "FLOPS" is easy to achieve nowadays. GPU's achieved >1TFLOPS 10 years ago so 4.2TFLOPS isn't astounding in 2021 (a couple of modern phone SoC's have this much too). It's also irrelevant as a measure for AI performance.


So while not putting down NIO's announcement altogether, it does sound like it's a numbers game announcement and not entirely as earthshattering as it's made to seem. Now if they had announced that it's ready for sale this year in 2021, then it would be seismic.
It's 4.2 tflops? How is this 7x Tesla fsd? Were they using the measurements of the gpu? Cause 4.2tflop is like 1/3 the speed of a xbox series x. Tesla didn't focus too much at all when it comes to gpu performance as it's generalized compute. They wanted more asic compute which the ai accelerator pumps out 72tops, complete obliterate 4.2 tflops which is like nothing more than a mid range graphics card you can buy for 150 dollars. I guess if nio wants better quality games then it's something. Fp4 and fp8 is what Tesla focused on, not fp16 as the computer is not used to render graphics of a triple A video game. It's used to predict road conditions as they are not doing HDmaps. So the precision of fp16 is a waste. So yes fp16 gpu performance nio is 7x faster than tesla but totally intentional.

Them focusing on gpu performanc of fp16 almost tells me they don't know what they are doing except only for marketing purposes like porsches 30x acceleration without losing power. Nvidia's ai accelerator are very tensor core heavy which is fp4 and fp8...cause you know..they know what they are doing.
 
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AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,098
27,020
How can anyone click disagree on this factual and helpfull post?? :confused:
That’s easy: the best way to perpetuate rumors is to spread rumors.
I am sensitive to the inability for each participant to keep abreast of all that is discussed on even just this single thread within TMC, and it is a certainty that some will miss some items that might - or might not - be important, and some speculation that might- or might not - bear out in times to come. EVEN WHEN it is a topic, such as the one referenced here, that has received very large visibility, and over a multi day period, over what it is BRK is up to.

If it had been the case that the disagreed post had included such wording as “rumor...for which there has been absolutely no corroborating evidence and which would run counter to some fundamental principles adhered to over some six decades of investment activity, but in all events should be revealed in the forthcoming 13F...”, THEN I would be perplexed at the “Disagree”.
 

Rohan

Member
Aug 14, 2015
48
273
Reading, UK
This is why Tesla will largely clone technology for the Model 2 in Shanghai from the existing Model 3/Y lines. It is a way of leveraging engineering talent, because they're literally no longer reinventing the wheels...

You can throw money at cloning a moneymaking machine to make, well, more money... :D

Cheers!
The machine that makes the machine that makes the money?:cool:
 

tropical1

Member
Dec 8, 2015
108
178
Odessa, FL
Curious what folks think a realistic value for Tesla is in the next year or so. I always believed they would be a trillion dollar company but to me it seems the stock may be a bit ahead of itself. Don't get me wrong, I am big Tesla fan and I definitely want them to succeed on all fronts (energy, FSD, cars etc). However, I am interested in what folks think about the rationale behind the current valuation and how much more growth to expect.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,098
27,020
~~~Regrettably - because the poster was acting in good faith in an attempt to do good - a post that was soliciting funds now is deleted. As all of you know, because all of you read the Terms of Service when you joined TMC, whether it is for re-foresting Iceland or saving the near-extinct Martians, it is impermissible to solicit funds on this platform. ~~~
 

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
678
6,353
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Curious what folks think a realistic value for Tesla is in the next year or so. I always believed they would be a trillion dollar company but to me it seems the stock may be a bit ahead of itself. Don't get me wrong, I am big Tesla fan and I definitely want them to succeed on all fronts (energy, FSD, cars etc). However, I am interested in what folks think about the rationale behind the current valuation and how much more growth to expect.
I had been thinking the same thing for several months, now I realize it is more than likely that 3, 4 or 5T will be the new "trillion dollar" company.
 

mulder1231

Active Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,791
9,740
SF Bay Area
Glad you made it out of that hell-hole!

Can you share what the $400K in shares would be worth today if you had just let the stock sit there? Assuming it's not too painful, of course!

That’s a great point. Jan ‘19, TSLA was around $65, now $880 so that $400K would be $5.4m today. I could have had a lot more sleep over those two years :rolleyes:
 

dl003

Active Member
Nov 22, 2019
1,441
12,541
Texas
Curious what folks think a realistic value for Tesla is in the next year or so. I always believed they would be a trillion dollar company but to me it seems the stock may be a bit ahead of itself. Don't get me wrong, I am big Tesla fan and I definitely want them to succeed on all fronts (energy, FSD, cars etc). However, I am interested in what folks think about the rationale behind the current valuation and how much more growth to expect.
We are past valuation. Right now its all about supply and demand. When a tsunami of buying crashes against a 3 mile high stone wall of sellers not selling, what ensues will be unprecedented. This is not some dark alley dealing either. TSLA has the highest trading volume in term of dollar (higher than even SPY). This is not a temporary thing as this imbalance will continue even after the buying is over. However, will it ever be over? What will happen when TSLA replaces AAPL as the symbol of tech? How many people wants a stable huge tech company that grows at 60%? As Wall Street plays catch up, PTs will become a lot more generous to support TSLA’s growth. I think 50%+ annual return after price discovery is reasonable. AMZN’s 3000 PE will look like a Walmart price tag.
 
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lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,685
5,446
Indialantic FL
Someone on Twitter suggested that the new $25k car should be called Model Q. Final torching of the shorts by the best selling Tesla Q!
Model Q

That sounds fantastic. It is such an interesting sound. Nothing else is similar.
"I just bought a Q."
"Let's take my Q."

Then again all us old farts will name the vehicle Susie Q.
"Oh Susie Q how I love you, Oh Susie Q."

Or the not quite as old, A CCR Version.
Both are great travelling songs.

Also the James Bond Reference can't be wasted on Elon.
Q (James Bond) - Wikipedia

A rare car (Q) for the common man.

Elon would love the Brain Hopscotching
 
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EVMeister

Lover of Tesla
Apr 8, 2018
1,616
11,080
England
Curious what folks think a realistic value for Tesla is in the next year or so. I always believed they would be a trillion dollar company but to me it seems the stock may be a bit ahead of itself. Don't get me wrong, I am big Tesla fan and I definitely want them to succeed on all fronts (energy, FSD, cars etc). However, I am interested in what folks think about the rationale behind the current valuation and how much more growth to expect.

Whilst it's easy to look at the stock and think it's "ahead of itself", you need to remember that the stock is valued for substantial future growth in the company. The market has finally realised that the company has an incredible growth rate and amazing potential ahead of it. As long as Tesla keeps executing and growing as I (and now the market) expects, or beyond that, then the stock price will keep on growing. The market should continue to look at the future potential and the large markets Tesla is dominating or growing into.

I don't see it dropping just because the market decides it's "ahead of itself", but I do expect the stock to see short term punishment due to any substantial failures of execution or misses of market expectation.
 

mulder1231

Active Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,791
9,740
SF Bay Area
real lesson ... that is some tough love right there !:rolleyes:

ok here goes ... i really hope am misinterpreting what happened here

Average TSLA closing SP for month of January 2019 = $63.81 (Split adjusted)
assume portfolio is 100% TSLA shares then $400,000/$63.81/share= 6268 shares
current SP $800*6268 = $5,014,888

You are largely correct, except it’s $880 not $800 now. I ended up with 150 or so more shares than what you calculated, so all the pain was not in vain. :)
 
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hacer

Active Member
Apr 13, 2016
1,067
4,453
Clarksville, MD
I see so many options expiring next week (Jan15 2021), significantly larger than any other date, and a lot of them are ditm.

based on the link below it may take out 1/5 of the delta hedge needed just in that week. Could it cause pressure on the stock?

https://tsla-oi.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html
Smart money is going to exercise most of those options so as to postpone capital gains tax. That won't pressure the stock at all.
 

DFibRL8R

Active Member
Jan 17, 2013
1,287
1,796
Leesburg Virginia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2021/01/08/tesla-brakes/

Not surprisingly, NHTSA found no evidence of vehicle defect as cause of unintended accelerations.

From the article:
Brian Sparks, the investor who filed the petition, said the rates of complaints about sudden acceleration incidents in Teslas were “astonishingly high” compared with other kinds of vehicles but that he accepted the findings of the federal review.
“If NHTSA says there is no defect then I consider the matter settled,” Sparks said. “I appreciate NHTSA’s work.”
 

⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️

Active Member
Jul 15, 2016
2,804
4,643
Pacific Northwest
For those that haven't seen it, I highly recommend the video where the very first Model S owners got their key(fobs) handed over. I'll admit it - I was crying (tears of joy). People that had put down big deposits (I think they were 40k, but they might have been more), many 2+ years before Model S shipped, on the hope that a real EV might come along and that this would be the one, and that it'd be more than half decent.

Such a setup for a complete letdown.

And then those first owners went driving and started reporting back - it wasn't just good, or as good as they hoped it would be; it was AMAZING!

That was one of the pieces that got me invested (and a $40k Model X reservation).

Who is the guy MCing the event? I like Elon's style so much better. No offense to whoever you are. You did a lot better job than I would have done.
 
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reardencode

Supporting Member
Mar 9, 2019
231
852
Seattle, WA
Smart money is going to exercise most of those options so as to postpone capital gains tax. That won't pressure the stock at all.
Exercised my remaining Jan 15 550c Friday morning. Couldn't stomach the taxes of selling. Sold basically all other equities to finance the exercise.
Still have some Jan 29 750c that I can't afford to exercise. Gonna be a painful tax quarter (oh the troubles we face).
 

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