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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Nio just released 360wh/kg 150kWh solid state battery with 1000km range ready in Q4 2022.
Nio also showed a new FSD computer with 7x the flops as Tesla HW3. 11x 8MP cameras, Lidar etc-
Nio also showed a new FSD computer with 7x the flops as Tesla HW3. 11x 8MP cameras, Lidar etc-
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I'd be surprised if there isn't more to this than the headline - I find it hard to believe that a solid state battery could be ready for prime time and NIO is the one to get there first - all while not hearing a lot of rumours about it.
What are the costs, charging, performance in cold temperature specs?
Yes, the focus on energy density from Tesla competitors always surprises me. Whilst higher energy densities are nice to have they are no longer a critical factor for BEVs. That is why Tesla is focussed on cost/KWh and manufacturing scalability, as demonstrated by Battery Day.
Of course if your aim is to build electric aircraft then 360wh/Kg or more is very helpful
Q4 2022 is basically code for "not 2022" which then puts it basically where QS is with a dash of exuberance. It also just about matches Tesla's timeline for reaching 400Wh/kg in 2023. Also, 910km @ 150kWh is 165Wk/km vs 112Wh/km for the M3 using the same MIIT cycle; in a word, ugly.
As for the computer, high "FLOPS" is easy to achieve nowadays. GPU's achieved >1TFLOPS 10 years ago so 4.2TFLOPS isn't astounding in 2021 (a couple of modern phone SoC's have this much too). It's also irrelevant as a measure for AI performance.
So while not putting down NIO's announcement altogether, it does sound like it's a numbers game announcement and not entirely as earthshattering as it's made to seem. Now if they had announced that it's ready for sale this year in 2021, then it would be seismic.
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Mike Smith
Active Member
It's 4.2 tflops? How is this 7x Tesla fsd? Were they using the measurements of the gpu? Cause 4.2tflop is like 1/3 the speed of a xbox series x. Tesla didn't focus too much at all when it comes to gpu performance as it's generalized compute. They wanted more asic compute which the ai accelerator pumps out 72tops, complete obliterate 4.2 tflops which is like nothing more than a mid range graphics card you can buy for 150 dollars. I guess if nio wants better quality games then it's something. Fp4 and fp8 is what Tesla focused on, not fp16 as the computer is not used to render graphics of a triple A video game. It's used to predict road conditions as they are not doing HDmaps. So the precision of fp16 is a waste. So yes fp16 gpu performance nio is 7x faster than tesla but totally intentional.
Them focusing on gpu performanc of fp16 almost tells me they don't know what they are doing except only for marketing purposes like porsches 30x acceleration without losing power. Nvidia's ai accelerator are very tensor core heavy which is fp4 and fp8...cause you know..they know what they are doing.
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That’s easy: the best way to perpetuate rumors is to spread rumors.How can anyone click disagree on this factual and helpfull post??
I am sensitive to the inability for each participant to keep abreast of all that is discussed on even just this single thread within TMC, and it is a certainty that some will miss some items that might - or might not - be important, and some speculation that might- or might not - bear out in times to come. EVEN WHEN it is a topic, such as the one referenced here, that has received very large visibility, and over a multi day period, over what it is BRK is up to.
If it had been the case that the disagreed post had included such wording as “rumor...for which there has been absolutely no corroborating evidence and which would run counter to some fundamental principles adhered to over some six decades of investment activity, but in all events should be revealed in the forthcoming 13F...”, THEN I would be perplexed at the “Disagree”.
The machine that makes the machine that makes the money?This is why Tesla will largely clone technology for the Model 2 in Shanghai from the existing Model 3/Y lines. It is a way of leveraging engineering talent, because they're literally no longer reinventing the wheels...
You can throw money at cloning a moneymaking machine to make, well, more money...
Cheers!
tropical1
Member
Curious what folks think a realistic value for Tesla is in the next year or so. I always believed they would be a trillion dollar company but to me it seems the stock may be a bit ahead of itself. Don't get me wrong, I am big Tesla fan and I definitely want them to succeed on all fronts (energy, FSD, cars etc). However, I am interested in what folks think about the rationale behind the current valuation and how much more growth to expect.
~~~Regrettably - because the poster was acting in good faith in an attempt to do good - a post that was soliciting funds now is deleted. As all of you know, because all of you read the Terms of Service when you joined TMC, whether it is for re-foresting Iceland or saving the near-extinct Martians, it is impermissible to solicit funds on this platform. ~~~
that would be the equivalent of the Audi e-tron in french
I had been thinking the same thing for several months, now I realize it is more than likely that 3, 4 or 5T will be the new "trillion dollar" company.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
That’s a great point. Jan ‘19, TSLA was around $65, now $880 so that $400K would be $5.4m today. I could have had a lot more sleep over those two years
We are past valuation. Right now its all about supply and demand. When a tsunami of buying crashes against a 3 mile high stone wall of sellers not selling, what ensues will be unprecedented. This is not some dark alley dealing either. TSLA has the highest trading volume in term of dollar (higher than even SPY). This is not a temporary thing as this imbalance will continue even after the buying is over. However, will it ever be over? What will happen when TSLA replaces AAPL as the symbol of tech? How many people wants a stable huge tech company that grows at 60%? As Wall Street plays catch up, PTs will become a lot more generous to support TSLA’s growth. I think 50%+ annual return after price discovery is reasonable. AMZN’s 3000 PE will look like a Walmart price tag.
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lafrisbee
Active Member
Model Q
That sounds fantastic. It is such an interesting sound. Nothing else is similar.
"I just bought a Q."
"Let's take my Q."
Then again all us old farts will name the vehicle Susie Q.
Or the not quite as old, A CCR Version.
Also the James Bond Reference can't be wasted on Elon.
Q (James Bond) - Wikipedia
A rare car (Q) for the common man.
Elon would love the Brain Hopscotching
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Whilst it's easy to look at the stock and think it's "ahead of itself", you need to remember that the stock is valued for substantial future growth in the company. The market has finally realised that the company has an incredible growth rate and amazing potential ahead of it. As long as Tesla keeps executing and growing as I (and now the market) expects, or beyond that, then the stock price will keep on growing. The market should continue to look at the future potential and the large markets Tesla is dominating or growing into.
I don't see it dropping just because the market decides it's "ahead of itself", but I do expect the stock to see short term punishment due to any substantial failures of execution or misses of market expectation.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
real lesson ... that is some tough love right there !
ok here goes ... i really hope am misinterpreting what happened here
Average TSLA closing SP for month of January 2019 = $63.81 (Split adjusted)
assume portfolio is 100% TSLA shares then $400,000/$63.81/share= 6268 shares
current SP $800*6268 = $5,014,888
You are largely correct, except it’s $880 not $800 now. I ended up with 150 or so more shares than what you calculated, so all the pain was not in vain.
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hacer
Active Member
Smart money is going to exercise most of those options so as to postpone capital gains tax. That won't pressure the stock at all.
Sorry, I capitulated today and sold 5% of my shares. What's great though is, selling "only"
These dang hobbies of our are practically money pits.
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