Some of us, regrettably, forget about our obligation to follow the rules.
For my part I apologize to everyone.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Some of us, regrettably, forget about our obligation to follow the rules.
For my part I apologize to everyone.
Well, one of the selling points of a Tesla is that the product still gets a bit better over time. People like that and is a selling point.
I fail to see your second op point. My power drill can last way longer than its batteries. My light fixtures have replaceable lamps.
I’m fine with calling renting out a battery leasing it (but with leasing you usually get to keep the same product all the time, whereas in the Nio battery swap that is not the case). I do not want to go so far that if car lease is not profitable that a car sale plus a battery lease would not be profitable. To the contrary, as EVs may be much more durable (and FSD hopefully further prolongs the life of cars, which is environmentally beneficial), leasing batteries over the lifetime of the car could be more profitable than selling a battery once. I once ran a business. I know it much easier to run one with a steady stream of revenue than one with intermittent assignments.
If tesla is using solar+power pack+ grid, then why would Tesla need so many power packs? The power pack is just there to arbitrage for Tesla to make more margins on supercharging. Solar itself during the day may be able to provide ample power in real time for all cars being charged. So Tesla doesn't need 2-3x battery packs per car per station. I mean if that's the case then Tesla would need to build what a 21mw power pack system for the 72 stalls? Looks like they build zero, because it's not even needed. Nio's option MUST have addition batteries which should be going into car production, not being dead weight.
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FWIW, IIRC that was the first Supercharger and a few days later the first one actually open to the public. Imagine that only a little less than nine years ago there were none of them.
Your power drill uses a battery like laptops die in 2 years. Tesla batteries does not die in 2 years.
Also I said it's not a money maker as in the margins are poor. Tesla is always in the business of increasing margins, hence our current stock price. And if another company wants to be the next Tesla, then they better come up with ways of increasing demand WHILE increasing margins. That's the Tesla game..everything Musk do is to take out middle man and increase margins. Anything that make no margins he discourages.
NIO will need to do the same with battery backup as they scale. The KW demand to charge so many batteries at once will be brutal on the grid and utilities will pass that cost on.
As far as abuse, do these customers never charge on their own? I suppose I’m unclear there. I think this tends to limit NIO geographically. I’m not sold.
hacer
Active Member
Speaking of dead investors, earlier this year I was looking into getting more life insurance because covid. But then I realized that I already had substantial extra "free" life insurance from TSLA because of the cost-basis reset when stocks are inherited. At that time the tax savings was the equivalent of a modest policy. Today it's the equivalent of a pretty big policy (partly due to some new purchases just after the S&P announcement not yet having long-term status).
Hold up. That fsd computer is from Nvidia. Lol I really need to get more information straight before replying.
"and Nvidia processing chips that offer processing power greater than that of seven Tesla full self-driving computers, Li claimed."
Okay that's some credibility as for the technology. However anyone can have access to this and it's another money loser as Nvidia has a profit margin of over 60%. They certainly are not a charitable organization. Also Nvidia had higher TOP when Tesla released their fsd computer. The problem with Nvidia was always performance per watt, not performanc. Tesla did not want to hook up a system that uses 500watts of power because that requires a complex system of water cooling just to offset that power. So total all in would cost Tesla almost 1kw of power just use the thing. Hence they developed their own FSD which was 144tops using less than 100watts. So we don't know how much power this 1000top system Nvidia uses. I know they recently switched manufacturing nodes so it'll be better than their last gen stuff for sure.
Okay so Nio didn't design anything.
"and Nvidia processing chips that offer processing power greater than that of seven Tesla full self-driving computers, Li claimed."
Okay that's some credibility as for the technology. However anyone can have access to this and it's another money loser as Nvidia has a profit margin of over 60%. They certainly are not a charitable organization. Also Nvidia had higher TOP when Tesla released their fsd computer. The problem with Nvidia was always performance per watt, not performanc. Tesla did not want to hook up a system that uses 500watts of power because that requires a complex system of water cooling just to offset that power. So total all in would cost Tesla almost 1kw of power just use the thing. Hence they developed their own FSD which was 144tops using less than 100watts. So we don't know how much power this 1000top system Nvidia uses. I know they recently switched manufacturing nodes so it'll be better than their last gen stuff for sure.
Okay so Nio didn't design anything.
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hacer
Active Member
One possibility is that someone could expect that since Berkshire was deemed exempt from obeying the law that everyone else must follow with their previous 13F, why should we expect it to be different this time? SEC says they're special ...How can anyone click disagree on this factual and helpfull post??
but I didn't disagree with the post
LA Times - after hours yesterday: Many couldn't afford a car in 2020. The rich went on a buying spree
Excerpts:
...Cars and trucks with price tags of $50,000 and higher gained market share while the segment comprising new vehicles that cost under $30,000 took a big hit, he said...
Every automaker saw a U.S. sales decline in 2020 except Tesla, Alfa Romeo and Mazda...
Excerpts:
...Cars and trucks with price tags of $50,000 and higher gained market share while the segment comprising new vehicles that cost under $30,000 took a big hit, he said...
Every automaker saw a U.S. sales decline in 2020 except Tesla, Alfa Romeo and Mazda...
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Great thread from Factchecking:
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1347949450409496577
Biden will print money to avoid raising taxes. Not great for my TSLA portfolio as this will of course weaken the dollar. Money will continue to pour into Bitcoin I would imagine. Factchecking expects this to create a new bull market.
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1347949450409496577
Biden will print money to avoid raising taxes. Not great for my TSLA portfolio as this will of course weaken the dollar. Money will continue to pour into Bitcoin I would imagine. Factchecking expects this to create a new bull market.
Well worth watching and not just related to ARK, it has lots of relevance to TSLA.
it's commonly said that stocks are overall inflation-protected assets as long as the underlying business is able to raise prices in line with the inflation rate (or higher)
Weakened dollar generally helps with multi-national US company's profit number due to the more favorable exchange rate on the sales abroad.
Just watched NIO day on youtube, and I will give some thoughts.
I'm glad to see improvement on station design, however, my background is commercial real estate, so from that perspective, I still see a huge disadvantage over a simple supercharger.
Take a look at this image which is what the station looks like from the presentation. It takes 4 parking spots in X/Y axis (9x20x4, 720sqft), with Z axis at roughly 12-14fts given the references in the picture. All the charging converter and equipment apply to both cases, so I'd just cancel each others out.
This possess a problem for where it can be installed. Not sure about other places, but here in Vancouver, BC, we have superchargers both on the ground like NIO's picture, or underground in the mall's parkade. And I don't have a clear image right off my head with the downtown SC, but I don't remember it to have much more clearance than my X as the falcon door didn't open fully IIRC.
Thus, installing in places other than above ground or parkades with enough clearance is out of question.
Then, in the presentation, it suggested 312 swaps per day max, or 13 per hour, or just under 5min each swap assuming 0 complications. Even just at the 4th car in line, which is the space the station occupies, it means 20min wait time.
Assuming one goes into supercharger low enough and given a 20min charge, I'd say on a V3 supercharger, an average of 800km or 480m/h charge is not overly optimistic if not a bit conservative, that should be enough to bring from near empty to about 70-80% SOC for most of the Tesla. Therefore, I fail to see the advantage on time saving. Yes, a battery from swapping station might come with 90%-100% SOC, but as an EV driver, we know that we just need enough to get back home or to the next charging point. Even on a long road trip, the time saving is marginal.
And if we look at the lineup some Tesla SC had during normal usage, which for me, is the Surrey, BC SC, I usually see about 2-4 empty spaces during regular hours. Meaning that at 8 cars average in regular hours, that translates into 20min+ wait time for swapping.
Also, if I were a business owner looking to host SC... I'd much rather host a Tesla one. Because the swapping station takes 4 spots out permanently. And assuming just 4 cars waiting in line, where do they go? In Tesla case, 4 slots mean 4 cars charging. In NIO's case, not only you need 4 spots to host the swapping station, but also another 3 spots for the cars waiting.
In short, the swapping station looks elegant when there's only 1 car to do the job, but an absolute nightmare when there are 12cars+ waiting.
I'm glad to see improvement on station design, however, my background is commercial real estate, so from that perspective, I still see a huge disadvantage over a simple supercharger.
Take a look at this image which is what the station looks like from the presentation. It takes 4 parking spots in X/Y axis (9x20x4, 720sqft), with Z axis at roughly 12-14fts given the references in the picture. All the charging converter and equipment apply to both cases, so I'd just cancel each others out.
This possess a problem for where it can be installed. Not sure about other places, but here in Vancouver, BC, we have superchargers both on the ground like NIO's picture, or underground in the mall's parkade. And I don't have a clear image right off my head with the downtown SC, but I don't remember it to have much more clearance than my X as the falcon door didn't open fully IIRC.
Thus, installing in places other than above ground or parkades with enough clearance is out of question.
Then, in the presentation, it suggested 312 swaps per day max, or 13 per hour, or just under 5min each swap assuming 0 complications. Even just at the 4th car in line, which is the space the station occupies, it means 20min wait time.
Assuming one goes into supercharger low enough and given a 20min charge, I'd say on a V3 supercharger, an average of 800km or 480m/h charge is not overly optimistic if not a bit conservative, that should be enough to bring from near empty to about 70-80% SOC for most of the Tesla. Therefore, I fail to see the advantage on time saving. Yes, a battery from swapping station might come with 90%-100% SOC, but as an EV driver, we know that we just need enough to get back home or to the next charging point. Even on a long road trip, the time saving is marginal.
And if we look at the lineup some Tesla SC had during normal usage, which for me, is the Surrey, BC SC, I usually see about 2-4 empty spaces during regular hours. Meaning that at 8 cars average in regular hours, that translates into 20min+ wait time for swapping.
Also, if I were a business owner looking to host SC... I'd much rather host a Tesla one. Because the swapping station takes 4 spots out permanently. And assuming just 4 cars waiting in line, where do they go? In Tesla case, 4 slots mean 4 cars charging. In NIO's case, not only you need 4 spots to host the swapping station, but also another 3 spots for the cars waiting.
In short, the swapping station looks elegant when there's only 1 car to do the job, but an absolute nightmare when there are 12cars+ waiting.
Sudre
Active Member
That is interesting. Charging with one of the most polluting thing out there. I saw somewhere on youtube an up to 20kWh portable battery charging system for this use case..... but it sounds like Better Place was not in this for the carbon foot print.
There is also a motorcycle with 200 or 100 miles (battery size choices) of range that can do V2G. Could use something like that minus the super fast Ninja bike styling. Minus collision HUD detection. Minus the adjustable chassis.
Damon Motorcycles - HyperSport Premier
Pezpunk
Active Member
if we care about market share, a weak dollar would probably help sales globally.
Not how I think about things in general and definitely not how I think about Tesla.
There’s a saying that in the computer hardware industry that the leader makes piles of money, the second company breaks even and everybody else loses money.
Winner-take-all is increasingly common today especially in tech. (Perhaps that is surprising and counterintuitive as we are supposed to be making progress yet it appears to be so.)
Julius Caesar ran up huge debts at points in his life. Why did people keep loaning him money?
Disruption is like conquest. There is only victory or nothing.
We are told the shares are worth what Mr. Market says they are worth. I’ll court the disagrees by saying Mr. Market is often clueless in valuing disrupters.
Keep focused on the various battlefronts in the actual marketplaces.
To bastardize Zen: Don’t mistake the reflection in the water for the moon.
Sudre
Active Member
Battery swapping OT.... feel free to skip.
I am hoping you are joking about not being allowed to charge the car at home. While I would consider a battery swap car, 99.999% of my charging is at home, hotel, or work. I use on average 15 supercharger visits a year and I am in the Midwest traveling all over the country once a year. I would only be swapping 15 times which would be great for those trips BUT I want MY battery back at the end of the trip since I have driven rentals before and they are not treated kindly. The majority of people will probably be in a similar situation. Apartment dwellers still must park their car somewhere. There is no reason there can not be a level 1 or 2 charger there for them and on the occasion they need more they can swap. Win Win. BUT the battery still has to have a charger somewhere. I don't understand why that charger simply can not be at the parking spot.
I do think the biggest problem with battery swapping is the total lack of batteries to even build the cars (some else already mentioned this) which are in the demand pipeline now. I think currently it simply would not work to build half the number of cars needed. Once the world is cranking out batteries for cars like they do gallons of gas it would be time to start battery swapping.
But remember you are not reducing the overall cost of the car. You are just shifting it to longer term payments that will probably only go up in cost as years go by. It will go up at least 3% with inflation. Newer model batteries will absolutely be better and a great upgrade but they will absolutely cost more like cellphones. Capitalism does not lower prices on stuff like this. I bought my Tesla in 2013. I am not paying 3% more for the battery cumulatively over the last 7 years like I would if I was swapping. I am not interested at ALL in getting a new battery. The whole car needs an upgrade but when I bought it I was stead fast about keeping it until it dies so I can see if it is more reliable than my Saturn that lived for 12+ years before it was totaled in an accident. SO what does the swapping cost at the end of 7 years? maybe 12?
FYI. Model S60 with about 100K miles on it and still charges to 200 miles. No special care taken.... altho I have not fully charged in 6 months so it may have gone down a few more miles.
I am hoping you are joking about not being allowed to charge the car at home. While I would consider a battery swap car, 99.999% of my charging is at home, hotel, or work. I use on average 15 supercharger visits a year and I am in the Midwest traveling all over the country once a year. I would only be swapping 15 times which would be great for those trips BUT I want MY battery back at the end of the trip since I have driven rentals before and they are not treated kindly. The majority of people will probably be in a similar situation. Apartment dwellers still must park their car somewhere. There is no reason there can not be a level 1 or 2 charger there for them and on the occasion they need more they can swap. Win Win. BUT the battery still has to have a charger somewhere. I don't understand why that charger simply can not be at the parking spot.
I do think the biggest problem with battery swapping is the total lack of batteries to even build the cars (some else already mentioned this) which are in the demand pipeline now. I think currently it simply would not work to build half the number of cars needed. Once the world is cranking out batteries for cars like they do gallons of gas it would be time to start battery swapping.
But remember you are not reducing the overall cost of the car. You are just shifting it to longer term payments that will probably only go up in cost as years go by. It will go up at least 3% with inflation. Newer model batteries will absolutely be better and a great upgrade but they will absolutely cost more like cellphones. Capitalism does not lower prices on stuff like this. I bought my Tesla in 2013. I am not paying 3% more for the battery cumulatively over the last 7 years like I would if I was swapping. I am not interested at ALL in getting a new battery. The whole car needs an upgrade but when I bought it I was stead fast about keeping it until it dies so I can see if it is more reliable than my Saturn that lived for 12+ years before it was totaled in an accident. SO what does the swapping cost at the end of 7 years? maybe 12?
FYI. Model S60 with about 100K miles on it and still charges to 200 miles. No special care taken.... altho I have not fully charged in 6 months so it may have gone down a few more miles.
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