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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Barron's - half hour ago:

Vinod Khosla Explains Why the EV Industry Is Worth Billions More Than Traditional Cars

Excerpt:

Why exactly it takes a relatively small market share to disrupt an industry is a bit of a mystery. One reason is that more investment capital flows in when market share hits 3% to 5%. More capital drives more innovation and improvement. Even more capital flows in as investors are lured by high growth rates.

Over the past year, EV makers have raised more than $20 billion in fresh capital. That is a fraction of what traditional auto companies spend on plants and equipment. On a per car basis, however, the EV industry is investing at roughly 10 times the rate of the traditional industry.

There is also the dilemma incumbents face. They don't want to disrupt their own profit stream and, often times, leave the next big thing to start ups.

EV makers are now worth about $1.3 trillion. Traditional car makers have a combined market capitalization of about $1.2 trillion. That covers almost 100 auto makers around the globe with market caps ranging from $10 million all the way to Tesla (TSLA).
 
All the cries of manipulation and "buying dips" while the stock is still trading in the $600s is crazy talk. Tesla is currently valued at ~$600 Billion (over $725 Billion once you account for all the approved options/RSUs). We are trading at $3,200 pre split level.

It is going to take literally years of perfect execution for Tesla to grow into its current valuation. I am fine hanging on to my common stock for a long time and waiting for that day to occur and for further growth to come, but there is no way I am going to be levering up with options at anywhere close to this level. (Back under $400 a share - if it ever went there - I might start considering getting back into options.)

Feel free to disagree with this post - I know many will - but it feels like there are people on here who would still be saying "buy buy buy" even if the stock was trading at a $2 trillion valuation tomorrow. Some of you are losing your grip on a realistic valuation.

(starts digging a foxhole)

So then, did you sell?
 
Anyone have any thoughts/predictions about Cathie Wood’s Big Ideas 2021, updated price target (and how bananas it might be), and it’s effect on TSLA? She nailed the 2020 prediction.

Considering the amount of cred she has built on that call, I expect ARK's new price target will move the market...
 
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This is now the highest price target on the street at $950. (Previously BofA was the highest at $900.)

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Ives said EV demand looks robust in 2021, driven by China. The analyst "significantly" raised their forecasts for deliveries and now expects Tesla to exceed the 1million delivery threshold in 2022 and could start to approach 5million deliveries annually by the end of the decade.
 
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Thought that occured to be today regarding the use of Tesla vehicles in the Las Vegas loop: Boring doesn't care about panel gaps or touched up paint. Scratch and dent family pricing for the mutual win?


Well, honestly they probably SHOULD care.

These will be seen by a lot of folks attending trade shows in big industries- people with a lot of money and influence- and the last impression you'd want to give them is the FUDsters saying how the paint and panels suck are right.

If anything you'd want these to be showcases for the product.

And, on-brand for Tesla, it's advertising that's not only free to Tesla, Boring is being paid by LV to do it.
 
Keep in mind just a few days ago, Dan Ives, despite mentioning only 1M deliveries in 2022 and 5M for 2030, says TSLA could hit $1.5T-$2.0T in a couple of years.

I think 1M could happen in 2021 and near 2M in 2022 if Berlin and Austin continue rapidly building out along with the new construction in Shanghai. IMO, Ives will again "significantly raise" his TSLA target once it becomes obvious his delivery forecasts are low.

EDIT: Not to mention the ultimate wild card that could nuke every price target (Ark being the only exception): FSD becoming legit. If that happens...
 
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https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2021/01/14/tesla-planning-south-austin-show-room.html

"Tesla Inc. plans to build out a showroom and service center in South Austin, public records show."

"Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) intends to spend an estimated $2.5 million to renovate a 30,000-square-foot facility at 500 E. St. Elmo Road, according to a Jan. 12 Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation filing."

"The newest Tesla facility will be located in The Yard, a 200,000-square-foot complex in the redeveloped St. Elmo warehouse district in South Austin...The complex has become a hot spot for up-and-coming Austin businesses...Juiceland has warehouse space in the complex, along with Still Austin Distillery, St. Elmo Brewing Co., The Austin Winery and a coffee shop called The Spokesman."

(more info in the Journal article- subscription required but there may be a few free articles per month. Anyone interested in business in Austin should subscribe..)
 
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