Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gabeincal]

@gabeincal you're getting articles written from your videos

Tesla Roadrunner 4680 Battery Project & Model Y Giga Press Speed Ahead

Thanks for the heads up. I’m not entirely happy with them reusing my work without reaching out to me and so I will let them know.

 

[Joe F]

Sure, wasn't referring to yourself.

It's something you ease into. And yes it's quite intense, I also get a buzz out of it, so it's fun too.

Quite possibly that buzz could be more from all the beer.

 

[Christine69420]

Well, I think I'm fine with us hanging around $850 for a while.

Yeah me too. Let's get some beer and some nice food and I'm good for a week or two.

 

[Sudre]

I did mine myself as I was able to recover data from my failing chip (with a few tricks)

Good to know. Mine was completely DOA. I still have the MCU in the closet. I thought about selling it, then I decided to keep it just in case anything like this came up. When Tesla removed it they broke the screen too. They had a tech from CA rebuild my data I guess from some kind of backup. Also, I don't have the equipment shown in the video. If you have the equipment to remove the chip then you could be selling a nice repair service.

That's what I mean by dealer only. The average car buyer is not going to know how to do any of this much less have the equipment to solder on chips. That pretty much means dealer only. I can take my BMW, VW, whatever to almost any shop and they can throw in a timing chain.

There is one place I found here that will repair it for you.
eMMC Repair/Upgrade for Model S and X
BUT for the $1400, just spend the extra and get a whole new unit.

 

[willow_hiller]

Tesla has officially unveiled their new solar inverter: Tesla Solar Inverter | Tesla

 

[MC3OZ]

For it to be structural wouldnt that imply that we should see new Gigapress installation for the Model S, Model X front and rear ends? Wouldnt it be really difficult to hide those?

A Gigapress machine has a capacity of 1,000 castings per day, Fremont currently has 2 but I can see Fremont eventually having 2-5.
Shanghai 3 (but probably adding more), Berlin 8, Austin 8-10 (IMO more to come in Austin phase 2)

We know Fremont can build a Model Y with front and rear castings, they shipped a number of examples to Berlin.
However, my guess is Fremont is (mostly) building Model Y with rear castings only (currently).

We know Plaid Model S has a structural pack which requires front and rear castings.
With the 2 current casting machines at Fremont they have enough capacity to build Model Y/S/X with castings.

• machine 1 - rear castings only 1,000 Model Y per day
• machine 2 - front/rear castings for 500 Model S/X per day

The will want to move to front/rear castings for Model 3/Y, that is why I think Fremont needs more casting machines.

In terms of the pack for Model S/X there are 2 theories, which IMO are equally probable:-

1. Dodger - Panasonic 18650 lines in Japan have been converted to build tab-less 4680s.
2. Me - Tesla can build a structural pack with 18650s, 2170s and 4680s, Model Y/S/X can take packs built with cells in all 3 form factors.

if Model S/X currently isn't using castings and a structural pack, it is using plain old 18650s, but even then castings and a structural pack are coming with Plaid and I think for all Model S/X.

 

[Tyler34]

Tesla has officially unveiled their new solar inverter: Tesla Solar Inverter | Tesla

My initial reaction was "so what, they make slightly more profits on each solar install since they dont have to pay an upcharge to buy an inverter?" But after thinking about it for another 2 minutes I wonder if this is a necessary item for future v2g?

 

[MXWing]

Funding from cash. I keep some on the side.

Short puts are hurting but that’s the ‘wheel’. At that point, time to either roll or get assigned and then sell covered call aggressively against it and profit from that also.

Ahh thanks. Are LEAPS part of long term holdings or sold on a bounce?

Also over time, this is further concentrating more and more TSLA as part of your total networth?

Not that there is anything wrong with that.

 

[thx1139]

A Gigapress machine has a capacity of 1,000 castings per day, Fremont currently has 2 but I can see Fremont eventually having 2-5.
Shanghai 3 (but probably adding more), Berlin 8, Austin 8-10 (IMO more to come in Austin phase 2)

We know Fremont can build a Model Y with front and rear castings, they shipped a number of examples to Berlin.
However, my guess is Fremont is (mostly) building Model Y with rear castings only (currently).

We know Plaid Model S has a structural pack which requires front and rear castings.
With the 2 current casting machines at Fremont they have enough capacity to build Model Y/S/X with castings.

• machine 1 - rear castings only 1,000 Model Y per day
• machine 2 - front/rear castings for 500 Model S/X per day

The will want to move to front/rear castings for Model 3/Y, that is why I think Fremont needs more casting machines.

In terms of the pack for Model S/X there are 2 theories, which IMO are equally probable:-

1. Dodger - Panasonic 18650 lines in Japan have been converted to build tab-less 4680s.
2. Me - Tesla can build a structural pack with 18650s, 2170s and 4680s, Model Y/S/X can take packs built with cells in all 3 form factors.

if Model S/X currently isn't using castings and a structural pack, it is using plain old 18650s, but even then castings and a structural pack are coming with Plaid and I think for all Model S/X.

My understanding is that the casting machines cant be simply switched at a moments notice to cast different parts. Believe it is a major reconfiguration and swapping out molds. Am I wrong?

 

[woodisgood]

My initial reaction was "so what, they make slightly more profits on each solar install since they dont have to pay an upcharge to buy an inverter?" But after thinking about it for another 2 minutes I wonder if this is a necessary item for future v2g?

Vertical integration. No need to be joined to Solaredge at the hip if you can do it yourself. Solar is really about the inverter. Tesla is taking their destiny into their own hands.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Macro news: Biden's stimulus proposal details - more direct payments, unemployment benefit boosts, moratorium on evictions / foreclosures, etc. Sounds like another proposal seeking to tackle longer term goals, such as climate change, is planned for announcement in February.

Joe Biden just released his $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan – here's what's in it

 

[willow_hiller]

Vertical integration. No need to be joined to Solaredge at the hip if you can do it yourself. Solar is really about the inverter. Tesla is taking their destiny into their own hands.

Sounds like it's actually replacing the SolarEdge inverter and the home consumption monitor (called Powerblaster by a company named Neurio).

Once installed, homeowners use the Tesla app to manage their solar system and monitor energy consumption, resulting in a truly unique ecosystem experience.

 

[Silentk]

Tesla has officially unveiled their new solar inverter: Tesla Solar Inverter | Tesla

Some quotes from back in 2016:

JB Straubel: Power electronics is something that is really something quite core to Tesla. And something we see as a really strong competency of ours –most people don’t realize it but Tesla is one of the biggest manufacturers of power electronics in the world. If you look at all the charging equipment in the cars, the inverters that run the motors in the cars. Something we see a lot potential – we see an interesting and lucrative opportunity if we can more aggressively innovate and integrate that with storage.

Elon: I think the we are probably the best in the world on advanced inverter technologies

Source (Fred warning!): On building a Tesla Solar inverter/hub: 'we are probably the best in the world on advanced inverter technologies' - Elon Musk - Electrek

 

[MC3OZ]

My understanding is that the casting machines cant be simply switched at a moments notice to cast different parts. Believe it is a major reconfiguration and swapping out molds. Am I wrong?

They have bridge cranes (Berlin/Austin) so I guess swapping out molds is a major exercise, we know swapping can be done, they can build in batch in the case of Model S/X they may want to swap molds as infrequently as possible.
Say they had to swap molds every 3 days and it took 2 hours - that is 4-5 hours of down time per week.

Model Y rear casting doesn't need a mold swap they can keep cranking it out.

Maybe the mold swapping issue is a big deal, but the advantages of castings and structural packs may make it worthwhile.

EDIT: Fremont doesn't have bridge cranes, so perhaps swapping molds is much more difficult, that might be a showstopper.

 

[2daMoon]

Macro news: Biden's stimulus proposal details - more direct payments, unemployment benefit boosts, moratorium on evictions / foreclosures, etc. Sounds like another proposal seeking to tackle longer term goals, such as climate change, is planned for announcement in February.

Joe Biden just released his $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan – here's what's in it

So, that's about 2 shares of TSLA total, and some loose change for fractional buying?

Thanks Uncle Joe!

 

[thx1139]

They have bridge cranes so I guess swapping out molds is a major exercise, we know swapping can be done, they can build in batch in the case of Model S/X they may want to swap molds as infrequently as possible.
Say they had to swap molds every 3 days and it took 2 hours - that is 4-5 hours of down time per week.

Model Y rear casting doesn't need a mold swap they can keep cranking it out.

Maybe the mold swapping issue is a big deal, but the advantages of castings and structural packs may make it worthwhile.

100% agree, just thing that the casting machines will be dedicated to a part. If they were swapping in and out for a refreshed Model S I believe it would be noticed.

 

[2daMoon]

100% agree, just thing that the casting machines will be dedicated to a part. If they were swapping in and out for a refreshed Model S I believe it would be noticed.

Plus, the best process is no process.

Elon wouldn't put the casting process at risk by swapping, he'd put in another casting machine.

 

[woodisgood]

Sounds like it's actually replacing the SolarEdge inverter and the home consumption monitor (called Powerblaster by a company named Neurio).

Yeah. Folks not familiar with the inverter space may be interested to know that there are essentially two companies that dominate, Solaredge (string inverters, used by Tesla) and Enphase (micro inverters). I have been an investor in ENPH at various times throughout the last two years. My understanding from following the space is that SEDG has been gradually losing marketshare to ENPH, and many installers are switching to ENPH because SEDG inverters have a higher failure rate and less-than-ideal customer support. I can understand from Tesla's perspective why they would want their own solution, especially for Solar Glass, where microinverters don't make practical sense and a continued partnership with SEDG could be considered a liability for the product.

EDIT: Another important point is that when it comes to solar, the bulk of the profits are at the inverter, not the panels or installation, hence why SEDG and ENPH have rocketed to $18b and $25b marketcaps.

 

[JRP3]

Sandy Munro on Autoline, he bought a new Model 3 and wants to take it on a long trip in the cold to test it out. He says he seems some areas of improvement as well as areas that still need work but doesn't go into detail.

 

[willow_hiller]

Yeah. Folks not familiar with the inverter space may be interested to know that there are essentially two companies that dominate, Solaredge (string inverters, used by Tesla) and Enphase (micro inverters). I have been an investor in ENPH at various times throughout the last two years. My understanding from following the space is that SEDG has been gradually losing marketshare to ENPH, and many installers are switching to ENPH because SEDG inverters have a higher failure rate and less-than-ideal customer support. I can understand from Tesla's perspective why they would want their own solution, especially for Solar Glass, where microinverters don't make practical sense and a continued partnership with SEDG could be considered a liability for the product.

Also on the theme of "the best part is no part" it sounds like this inverter has built in WiFi and LTE (removing the need for the black square gateway for Powerwall-less installs), and has Dual/Quad MPPT (removing the panel-level optimizers). A 12.24 kW system would have 6 MPPT strings, which should probably be plenty to mitigate the effects of shading on differently tilted arrays.

Reduced hardware costs, reduced installation time.