Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

That got updated a couple of days ago on that non-public conference call with the press, which got then published:

Elon Musk: "Given that there is just a lot happening in Q1. And we're taking a lot of sort
of a lot of onetime charges and there's a lot of challenges getting cars to China and and Europe. We
do not expect to be profitable in Q1. But we do think that profitability in Q2 is likely."
​

Indeed, that is still a very different statement from expecting a loss in Q1 which is what the Press reported. They put words in Elon's mouth, and delete them (60 Minutes interview), to suit their narrative. Then people 'remember' what Elon said, when he never said it. People are being gaslighted by the Financial Press.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Just finished watching SpaceX Dragon splash down. Wow! CREW DEMO-1 MISSION | SpaceX They have won the race beating Boeing at half the cost. This bodes well for Americans to launch astronauts to the ISS in July, a task last achieved since 2011 (currently US pays Russia $85M for every American astronaut that is sent to the ISS.)

I'm currently reading "Rocket Billionaires" by Tim Fernholz.
"When the Falcon 1 test program was scattering rocket parts across a Pacific atoll, SpaceX's employees had received sympathy emails from their former colleagues at the other prime companies. But once the Falcon 9 was flying, those good-faith gestures dried up, and SpaceX's government relations team noticed an uptick in criticism from lawmakers and the media. Their competitors had stopped ignoring SpaceX, and now rival lobbyists and public relations teams were pushing back hard, and with good reason: SpaceX had its sights set on the most lucrative prize in the launch world, a $19 billion contract to fly five years's worth of space missions for the US government"

Sound familiar?

 

[AlexS]

is there somewhere TMC-like forum for short sellers. Maybe someone could tell them the company they were looking for is NIO. Nio is not selling cars nor technology, they are selling lifestyle. this sounds like this Fyre Festival and the credit cards the Fyre guy was selling before that.

 

[Tslynk67]

View attachment 384154

Proof that it did happen!

Thanks to everyone here in the TMC community, this really helped make the wait seem less long than the almost 3 years it took.

Grey with white interior, niiiiice!

And yeah, the M3P drives like a dream, I'd love one myself.

 

[jeewee3000]

is there somewhere TMC-like forum for short sellers. Maybe someone could tell them the company they were looking for is NIO. Nio is not selling cars nor technology, they are selling lifestyle. this sounds like this Fyre Festival and the credit cards the Fyre guy was selling before that.

It's called Seeking Alpha.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

No, you've got that backwards. Elon is executing on the plan, and all the naysayers 'concerns' have been shown to be false.

So Wall St, having placed large bets against TSLA, is now pannicking and deploying huge financial and FUD resources in a vain attempt to bring down Tesla (you're a victum of the FUD; stop reading it).

None of that matters. Tesla doesn't need Wall St money anymore. That's why their final play to to try and take down Elon personally. Again, vain and futile effort. He doesn't respect them, and neither should you. Wall St doesn't care about you, why should you care about them?

Cheers!

I agree with everything here except one thing. As long as they are a public company and they are at least paying or incentivising their employees with stock, they need that price to stay up. Granted, they probably don't need the market for capital anymore but there are other reasons to keep up the fight.

Dan

 

[gene]

I agree with everything here except one thing. As long as they are a public company and they are at least paying or incentivising their employees with stock, they need that price to stay up. Granted, they probably don't need the market for capital anymore but there are other reasons to keep up the fight.

Dan

Also, just for the sake of ego and to show the OEM's up, I'd wager Elon still cares somewhat about the stock price.

 

[ZachF]

View attachment 384144
Christophe Barraud on Twitter

Collapsing demand for ICE vehicles in China.

Auto sales are likely to drop by 15% in China this year even as EV sales increase heavily.

 

[anthonyj]

Pretty sure Elon wants $500-600 steady as the SP so that they can raise capital with less dilution of his shares (or ours)

He says it here. We have tons of product ideas but not enough resources. Not a bad idea to do a raise after the next leg up. More products = more growth = higher SP. Cap raise doesn’t always mean BK

 

[jerry33]

I agree with everything here except one thing. As long as they are a public company and they are at least paying or incentivising their employees with stock, they need that price to stay up. Granted, they probably don't need the market for capital anymore but there are other reasons to keep up the fight.

Dan

One strategy is to let it get so bad that not even the most bought judge can give a pass to the naked short game.

 

[Dwdnjck]

[/QUOTE]

Just finished watching SpaceX Dragon splash down. Wow! CREW DEMO-1 MISSION | SpaceX They have won the race beating Boeing at half the cost. This bodes well for Americans to launch astronauts to the ISS in July, a task last achieved since 2011 (currently US pays Russia $85M for every American astronaut that is sent to the ISS.)

I'm currently reading "Rocket Billionaires" by Tim Fernholz.
"When the Falcon 1 test program was scattering rocket parts across a Pacific atoll, SpaceX's employees had received sympathy emails from their former colleagues at the other prime companies. But once the Falcon 9 was flying, those good-faith gestures dried up, and SpaceX's government relations team noticed an uptick in criticism from lawmakers and the media. Their competitors had stopped ignoring SpaceX, and now rival lobbyists and public relations teams were pushing back hard, and with good reason: SpaceX had its sights set on the most lucrative prize in the launch world, a $19 billion contract to fly five years's worth of space missions for the US government"






But, what about the pot smoking? Didn’t he inhale?

Best movie ever.

 

[Cosmacelf]

There's no more boats scheduled to arrive in SFO according to this spreadsheet I believe: Tesla Carriers

I'd prefer a steady state pace rather than window dressing all the time but that's just me.

edit: unless those delivery times for new orders being March is literally true in which case it is fine to taper off of course.

Tesla usually prioritizes domestic production for the 3rd month of the Q so this action is in keeping with past behavior. This way you have the least amount of in transit cars for the full quarter.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Elon just tweeted this:

> Elon Musk on Twitter
>
> Yes, [Model Y unveil] invitations go out tomorrow

After last week's meme-fest here on TMC, let me offer a more ... cautious one for the Model Y unveil:

Uh oh, that tweet suggests both that Tesla will exist as a company tomorrow *and* is still having a Model Y unveil. Sounds material and potentially market-moving to me.

#seclogic

 

[brian45011]

...even if Tesla didn't need the money they could draw on those lines of credit and lend it out for a better interest rate themselves and pocket the spread.

Not likely:

Tesla Shanghai is subject to certain covenants, including a restriction on liens and other security interests on assets acquired and/or constructed using borrowings under the China Loan Agreement, other than specified exceptions, as well as certain customary covenants and events of default."
​

More details may be gleaned in early May when the heavily redacted loan agreement is filed as an exhibit to 1Q19 10Q.

 

[ZachF]

Dragon is back:

 

[AudubonB]

Was checking Dragon 2 departing ISS and here comes this "gem":


View attachment 384115

The juxtaposition of info is mind-boggling.

And seriously, what's wrong with you, Google algo?

I don't care a bit about what's nagging you. THIS is what I read on its first line (yes, you can see what I did here; shows how I read it)
SpaceX Crew Dragon built to carry human heads home from ISS

 

[CaliBear1]

Welcome to Team P3D! The car is spectacular!

Went and picked up my Model 3 Performance today. Went quick, no issues with the car and the acceleration is unbelievable. Only took 2 years, 11 months and 1 week of waiting.

 

[VValleyEV]

Mostly that's true. There are some reasonably priced hotels with destination chargers or superchargers, such as Holiday Inn Express. And for an overnight stay you don't really need more than just an L2 EVSE. (This conversation should probably be moved to one of the charging threads.)

I recall that when WiFi at hotels was introduced it was only at pricey hotels, and was almost always an add-on per-day extra, and they were crazy cumbersome to use: logging you out all the time, putting a quota on the number of connected devices, etc.. Then all the cheap hotels started offering it for free, some crappy but many quite good, and all of them easier to use than in the fancy hotels.

I am hoping for something similar with hotel EV charging, that the budget chains figure out they can get ahead of the curve for a small expense. Holiday Inn Express may be an example.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pretty sure Elon wants $500-600 steady as the SP so that they can raise capital with less dilution of his shares (or ours)

MEDIA - MKBHD interview with Elon - Aug 17, 2018

He says it here. We have tons of product ideas but not enough resources. Not a bad idea to do a raise after the next leg up. More products = more growth = higher SP. Cap raise doesn’t always mean BK

From the 2018Q3 Conference Call Oct. 24, 2018 (2 mths later):

"We do not intend to raise equity or debt, at least that is not our intention right now," the CEO said in response to a question from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas. "That may change in the future, but the current operating plan is to pay off our debts and not to refinance them, but to pay them off and reduce the debt load and overall leverage of the company."​

That statement of intent was made 2 months after the video interview with MKBHD. And just yesterday, we found out in the 8-K filing that Tesla has increased their line of credit with Deutsche Bank by $500M, and extended its terms until 2023.

So there's clearly no equity raise planned. Elon has consistently said he doesn't want to do that. His reasons haven't changed. Yesterday's DB move together with China loans make it clear that no equity raise will be needed for years.

The next cycle of debt/repayment could be for the next major product ramp (Pickup, Semi, 25Kar), but that need also depends on available FCF from Model 3/Y and GF3. But there's only wishful thinking to point at an equity raise at this point.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Went and picked up my Model 3 Performance today. Went quick, no issues with the car and the acceleration is unbelievable. Only took 2 years, 11 months and 1 week of waiting.

But do you love it?