Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Wouldn't the 6% across the board price reductions also de-value CPO vehicles in finished goods inventory and be the type of write-offs he was anticipating?
I wouldn't think CPO because general depreciation would dwarf that small amount. It's the closing of the stores, reducing staff, and the associated costs that would make up the bulk of the one time charges.
 
Is Tesla still doing this? I wasn’t sure if this program is still on going or not.

The section for it is still up and linked to from Tesla’s charging page:

Charging Partners | Tesla

So I assume it’s still going. Regretted not mentioning it to the Best Western I stayed at on the way to Kirkwood last weekend. They kindly let me plug in to a 120V outlet in their parking lot.
 
Horrific job reports number. Major indexes down .5%. TSLA up 1.40% and unlike prior sessions, no reversal from an early pop. Shorts have been shooting fish in a barrel lately. My sense is that new shorts are in for a fast money trade, and are otherwise without conviction, so don't have staying power. Perhaps when they see that the end of easy money is near, they will close out their positions and we will have at least a mini short squeeze. Hopefully enough to allow longs to reestablish positions.
 
Did you saw the SPIKE of $TSLA on the last minutes ??? What's going ON ?

remain-calm-500.gif
 
One thought on production plans. It looks like Tesla will export battery packs, motors, inverters and other powertrain components from GF1 to GF3 between September-19 and March-20. This is when they plan to ramp up in-house production at GF3.
This means Tesla will have an excess 3k per week battery packs and powertrains in GF1 in March 2020. These components are all likely shared with Model Y, so these components could be diverted to Model Y in GF1 in March 2020 - so for these components the S curve production ramp for Y could already be done by March 2020.
We know Tesla managed to ramp general assembly in a tent over just a few weeks in Fremont, we also know Tesla plan to advance from construction complete at GF3 in May to body, paint and assembly production by September - suggesting just c.4 months to install these production lines. So it is possible Tesla could start installing equivalent lines at GF1 in December 2019 and already be at 3k per week Y production by March 2020. Of course, suppliers are likely to be much slower moving and these will be the real bottleneck. So it all comes down to how soon suppliers get moving.

In summary, I think Tesla's internal (best case & unlikely) target could well be 3k Ys produced per week at GF1 or Fremont by March 2020. But they may not have to decide exactly where until November 2019.
I think SR battery packs intended for China will not be a good fit for the Y given the 10% range loss going S->X.
Elon already said the range will be less for Y.
So if it's similarly cut from 220 or 240 miles by 10%, that's not a whole lot of range.
 
I think SR battery packs intended for China will not be a good fit for the Y given the 10% range loss going S->X.
Elon already said the range will be less for Y.
So if it's similarly cut from 220 or 240 miles by 10%, that's not a whole lot of range.

It could be that SR packs are just depopulated packs optimised for SR+. (Though I think the current SR+ being sold are depopulated LR packs). So the base Model Y could use the 60kWh (c.57.5kWh useable) SR+ battery, just need to add a few more cells to the SR packs.
 
I think SR battery packs intended for China will not be a good fit for the Y given the 10% range loss going S->X.
Elon already said the range will be less for Y.
So if it's similarly cut from 220 or 240 miles by 10%, that's not a whole lot of range.
The Y is 1-2 yrs out. Tesla averages 7% increase in bty energy density per year. It's not going to be a problem.

This is not your father's Oldsmobile. :D

Cheers!
 
With the # of Tesla's in Nway, not sure why they haven't taken a visible stake in Tesla ... ( now would be a good time to buy ..) ;)
They have already shares of Tesla, currently they have 455 658 445USD invested in Tesla or 0.8% of Tesla is owned by NBIM (as their called). Keep in mind the idea of selling purely oil exploration and drilling companies is because all the income to the fund is from that very same industry here in Norway hence the fund gets too dependant on oil price.
 
It could be that SR packs are just depopulated packs optimised for SR+. (Though I think the current SR+ being sold are depopulated LR packs). So the base Model Y could use the 60kWh (c.57.5kWh useable) SR+ battery, just need to add a few more cells to the SR packs.
Not a chance that SR pack is based on the LR pack. Tesla didn't invest all that CapEx on the new football field sized Grohmann machine at GF1 to not use it. Indeed, the new pack is critical to the profitability of the Model 3 SR.

Further, its trivial for the new Grohman pack building machine to produce the SR/SR+ packs with different numbers of cells. They've already proven this with the LR/MR pack.

Finally, Tesla CAN NOT afford to give away a 10% margin on battery cells for the SR. The mere fact that Tesla chose to produce the first run of Model 3s as SRs rather than SR+s means they aren't giving away money on free battery cells (and that the base model is already profitable).

The software limited packs have ALWAYS been a demand lever. Tesla has no shortage of demand for the Model 3 SR. And it DOES NOT have a software limited pack.

Cheers!
 
Last edited:
I think SR battery packs intended for China will not be a good fit for the Y given the 10% range loss going S->X.
Elon already said the range will be less for Y.
So if it's similarly cut from 220 or 240 miles by 10%, that's not a whole lot of range.
This can be offset by supercharger expansion in any country. V3 supercharger only makes that impact even greater.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger
I wouldn't think CPO because general depreciation would dwarf that small amount. It's the closing of the stores, reducing staff, and the associated costs that would make up the bulk of the one time charges.

Yes, that too, particularly lease terminations.

Landlords to Tesla: You’re Still on the Hook for Your Store Leases

Tesla "is a company with a viable balance sheet that is going to owe a lot of landlords a lot of money," said Robert Taubman, chief executive officer of Taubman Centers Inc., at the Citi 2019 Global Property CEO conference in Hollywood, Fla., this week...

"Only a month ago, Tesla signed a new lease at Santa Monica Place in California that goes through 2025. As recently as last month, Tesla was negotiating and signing leases, according to executives at Taubman and Macerich.

Retail tenants generally can't break their leases without penalty unless certain conditions are met, like a retailer files for bankruptcy protection or the shopping center suffers from persistent vacancies that allows a tenant to leave before the lease expires. Mall tenant leases typically run five to 10 years...
Tesla has more flexibility with staff reductions such as delaying RIFs for 60 days to comply with WARN acts, and re-training the best employees for re-positioning/re-location. There could be some offsets; since, in my experience, many store employees are allowed to drive test drive vehicles for commuting and other personal uses.

Retail sales of energy generation and storage would seem to be adversely affected, but those products may be production-constrained