Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

BlackRock owns 2.74% of TSLA

CNBC - pre-market today:

 

[kengchang]

Checked Tesla permits...

No new Permit for 4860 plant since December HMMMM

 

[Rarity]

Whatever actually happens all this is a massive effort to make vehicle production far cheaper when production volume is high. The obvious conclusion is that vehicles designed in China and Germany will use these technologies.

What production volume is high enough to take full advantage? If it's, say, a million per annum, then the vast majority of car factories just aren't built for that scale. Like maybe, only Wolfsburg?

 

[H Mak]

Interesting article on Zach's career. I didn't realise he was that young. I suggest you skip past the Einhorn bit.

Tesla's no-nonsense finance chief tallies profit surge

 

[Mo City]

Most of us seem to be completely missing the point about what the IRDA Gigapreses will be able to do with the Grohmann touch added. Hints do exist:
"Jerome added a note, with great emphasis, that the Tesla Grohmann equipment has created much better machines, dramatically improving the overall manufacturing efficiency of the Model 3. He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that."
Our Interview With Tesla President Jerome Guillen, Part Deux

Please appreciate that that interview was in 2019.Next, if one wants to have ones mind truly blown check out the Tesla patent applications. I won't link it, but just think that is figures out a way to operate three or four of those gigantic IRDA machines together! That means that they are trying to cast what looks to be an entire BIW in a single piece. Impossible, sure but the:

GIGA PRESS

...were thought to be impossible too. Tesla succeeded in part because of proprietary alloys that could be stable enough for the machine. So far that is what is happening in Fremont and Shanghai.

Next there will be unprecedented joint operation of multiple presses, perhaps in Brandenburg and Austin. Elon has stated that Berlin could have a difficult ramp for the Model Y because of unprecedented new technologies. He also has said they're trying to build cars "like the toy cars are built". FWIW toy cars are mostly cast in a single piece.

Whatever actually happens all this is a massive effort to make vehicle production far cheaper when production volume is high. The obvious conclusion is that vehicles designed in China and Germany will use these technologies.

The implications of this are a production cost reduction on the order of 20-30%. Then there is the vastly higher stiffness and much less defect.

This, by itself, suggests we've seen nothing yet that is so consequential except, perhaps FSD or 4680's. I think it will be worth at least US$1,000 per share. I think we'll see the whole thing operating within three years, perhaps earlier. In the meantime each iteration is already paying for itself very quickly.

Here's a link from Cleantechnica with an illustration of Tesla's patent for a “Multi-Directional Unibody Casting Machine For A Vehicle Frame And Associated Methods”
Tesla Files Patent Application For Die-Cast Unibody Machine

You actually believe the cost reduction of this would be 20-30%? I don't know enough to disagree but that is really hard to imagine.

Indeed, if true, we would have a 3rd fuse (along with DBE/4680 and FSD) that could drive TSLA to infinity and beyond.

 

[Curt Renz]

Zacks rates TSLA #1 Strong Buy: Tesla, Inc. - TSLA - Stock Price Today - Zacks

Zacks - today: The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: W. R. Berkley, V.F. Corp, Tesla, United Rentals and Ameriprise Financial

Excerpt:

Tesla has acquired substantial market share within the electric car segment. Strong performance and impressive design of the firm's products are ramping up sales volumes. Increasing Model 3 delivery is aiding the company's top line. Along with Model 3, Model Y is contributing to its revenues. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #1 and an Earnings ESP of +18.12% for fourth-quarter 2020.

Tesla has an expected earnings growth rate of 62.8% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 1.1% over the last 7 days. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 319.7%, on average. The company is set to release earnings results on Jan 27, after the closing bell.

 

[phantasms]

So did the S refresh come out?

p.s. Tesla car network seems to be unaffected.

 

[lafrisbee]

Now all we need is a Tesla Trade School to meet the growth trajectory. Knowledge can become a constraint. Pull them in at about age 12.

Bubba?
"Trade School"?
The machines WILL make and teach the Machines... School will be to train humans to behave....but then?
Neural link.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Bubba?
"Trade School"?
The machines WILL make and teach the Machines... School will be to train humans to behave....but then?
Neural link.

We'll need Hybrid Humins first (with parent's consent of course).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Checked Tesla permits...

View attachment 630885

No new Permit for 4860 plant since December HMMMM

View attachment 630888

That's because there is no "4860" plant

 

[Mo City]

Below is Randy's drone video from late yesterday. I suggest watching the first 2:30 as a summary. Very good info. Then, if you like, watch the rest at 2x-speed.

I am tempted to drive up to Austin and meet all four Quad Squad guys and treat them and their families to a nice restaurant for the great work they've put in from day 1.

 

[La_crolle]

Most of us seem to be completely missing the point about what the IRDA Gigapreses will be able to do with the Grohmann touch added. Hints do exist:
"Jerome added a note, with great emphasis, that the Tesla Grohmann equipment has created much better machines, dramatically improving the overall manufacturing efficiency of the Model 3. He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that."
Our Interview With Tesla President Jerome Guillen, Part Deux

Please appreciate that that interview was in 2019.Next, if one wants to have ones mind truly blown check out the Tesla patent applications. I won't link it, but just think that is figures out a way to operate three or four of those gigantic IRDA machines together! That means that they are trying to cast what looks to be an entire BIW in a single piece. Impossible, sure but the:

GIGA PRESS

...were thought to be impossible too. Tesla succeeded in part because of proprietary alloys that could be stable enough for the machine. So far that is what is happening in Fremont and Shanghai.

Next there will be unprecedented joint operation of multiple presses, perhaps in Brandenburg and Austin. Elon has stated that Berlin could have a difficult ramp for the Model Y because of unprecedented new technologies. He also has said they're trying to build cars "like the toy cars are built". FWIW toy cars are mostly cast in a single piece.

Whatever actually happens all this is a massive effort to make vehicle production far cheaper when production volume is high. The obvious conclusion is that vehicles designed in China and Germany will use these technologies.

The implications of this are a production cost reduction on the order of 20-30%. Then there is the vastly higher stiffness and much less defect.

This, by itself, suggests we've seen nothing yet that is so consequential except, perhaps FSD or 4680's. I think it will be worth at least US$1,000 per share. I think we'll see the whole thing operating within three years, perhaps earlier. In the meantime each iteration is already paying for itself very quickly.

Any idea why Idra is not yet vertically integrated ? I guess Elon would love that!

 

[Silentk]

Interesting article on Zach's career. I didn't realise he was that young. I suggest you skip past the Einhorn bit.

Tesla's no-nonsense finance chief tallies profit surge

First ever decent Dana Hull article? (Hardly any snide remarks and nasty jabs)

Miracles still happen!

 

[Discoducky]

Award worthy manipulation this morning. Bravo. Looking for that ~10:30 V.

No V, I'm predicting a breakout today, let's say 920. Happy to be low balling it

 

[Words of HABIT]

"LIVE: Tesla Q4 Earnings Preview / Estimates" | Tesla Daily on Youtube

Scheduled for 1/26/21, 1:05 PM EST (22 min from this post)

Cheers!

Agree with Rob, Tesla should guide to 50% increase in vehicle output for 2021 (750k) for a conservative play. Always potential for Tesla to update/upgrade guidance throughout the year.

 

[FlamingPIG]

sorry if repost

Elon Musk says he's 'super fired up' for fighting climate change with Joe Biden

-Elon Musk is 'super fired up' about President Joe Biden's focus on the environment and wants to find a way to help out on the administration's initiatives for expanding green energy and fighting climate change, the billionaire CEO told Fortune Magazine.

-"I think this is great. I feel very optimistic about the future of sustainable energy with the new administration," Musk told Fortune of the Biden team's plans, joking to the outlet that he wants to make contact with the administration but knows they've been busy in their first week in office. "Not that we should get complacent or anything, but the wind is at our back for solving the climate crisis with the new administration."


This is reference to Fortune Magazine Article interview with Musk. (paywall that I dont have access)

 

[WattsHappening]

Agree with Rob, Tesla should guide to 50% increase in vehicle output for 2021 (750k) for a conservative play. Always potential for Tesla to update/upgrade guidance throughout the year.

I don't disagree. However, I would guess the SP takes a temporary hit if Tesla guides to 750K. If that's what they do and the market reacts the way I think it will, I will be turning over and shaking my couch for more change to purchase shares.

 

[Rarity]

Any idea why Idra is not yet vertically integrated ? I guess Elon would love that!

Unclear whether it is for sale. IDRA has a Chinese parent company, LK Machinery. ~$800 million market cap, traded on the HKSE.

 

[insaneoctane]

The reason Biden had a bunch of Chevy Bolts behind him was because GM has a PR department that could lend out Chevy Bolts. Tesla doesn't have a PR department that lends out cars for publicity events. Teslas will definitely be eligible for Federal purchases, but Tesla will have to get off its behind and actually put in competitive bids.

Maybe I'm short sighted, but if Tesla currently is still supply limited, then why would they be compelled to offer any discount to the federal government?

 

[jkirkwood001]

Gonna be hard to convince Biden that Korea is part of the America's.
There's also the interpretation of manufactured or assembled. The Bolt was designed in Korea, the battery and drivetrain are manufactured in Korea, and is assembled in Michigan with less than 20% domestic content. Not certain but I don't think they even use their own software.
GM has done very little manufacturing outside of engines and transmissions. Their plants are called assembly plants for a reason.

Not to mention, how many federal vehicles are small CUVs? Or sedans, for that matter?