Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[canoemore]

No V, I'm predicting a breakout today, let's say 920. Happy to be low balling it

That's bold. So far 890 appears to be verboten for the day.

 

[JustSaying]

There are only 2 non-demo Model S in US inventory. The drawdown is complete. No reason to do this unless you want to avoid osborne effect.

This weekend the Waikiki Tesla showroom had a single white Model X , a Y and a Model 3 (no Model S)....

 

[phantasms]

That's bold. So far 890 appears to be verboten for the day.

It does appear to be getting walked down in preparation for a late day pop. Clearly 890 is the line in the sand today. Place your bets!

 

[WattsHappening]

It does appear to be getting walked down in preparation for a late day pop. Clearly 890 is the line in the sand today. Place your bets!

Put me down for $896.50

 

[Discoducky]

It does appear to be getting walked down in preparation for a late day pop. Clearly 890 is the line in the sand today. Place your bets!

Yep, those stair step chart patterns seem very familiar

 

[ZachF]

Chamath's gone full retard!

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354089928313823232

View attachment 630852

Already ITM!

 

[Tim S]

No V, I'm predicting a breakout today, let's say 920. Happy to be low balling it

Looks like a V to me. Although the bottom was at 10:25, so @phantasms was off by 5 minutes. Try harder next time!

 

[Artful Dodger]

From memory this area is where the ramp used to be, whatever used to come up / down the ramp might come in / out of this building.
It could be parts in, and/or cars out.

One advantage I can see with a building is a potential for dual level loading, driving cars onto the top and bottom levels of a carrier at the same time. That in turn means a quicker turn around for the carrier, the truck driver can be one loader, they need some sort of specialist driver to load the say top level cars on. (I'm not sure if the building structure supports this).

I can't see why cars can't all line up for loading with some very precise version of smart summon.

I did think they might be able to use land East of the new bridge in the old water melon farm for logistics, but land in Shanghai is relatively expensive. No reason why they can't build another 1 or 2 of these over in the East if needed.

I've always expected multi-level car parks at Fremont and Shanghai, that uses less land and keeps the cars cleaner.

The far east might be a good location for a service and delivery center, that is a better use than a logistics car park,

Lol, I think Wu Wa reads TMC...

[Jan.26.2021] "The shape of the central construction area is basically formed. / Tesla Gigafactory 3" | 烏瓦 (Wū wǎ)- Shanghai Tesla GF3 videos

Note: We get our first good, clear view of the steel skeleton structure attaching the new building on it's SW corner to the Model Y assembly hall. Could this be for a conveyor?

Cheers!

 

[Sancho]

If they do get badly burned on GME and others, how would it affect tsla? Would margin calls force them to cover?

It's too early to speculate on how this plays out, and maybe GME is just a one-off, but it sure seems like what is happening with GME is part of a larger trend that is unmistakeable: small retail investors not only pouring money into the markets, but doing so in very aggressive ways. Lots of options. Lots of high flying stocks. Communicating publicly, and conspiring online.

I'm sure there's already been a mutation of new retail investors interested in shorting, and that may cause new peril down the road, but for now, most of the action is on the long side. And that just adds one more risk to anyone with a short position in an equity that has a concentrated short position, including TSLA. How the big boys are going to deal with this risk is the question. They sure haven't dealt very well with it so far with GME, and for at least an hour yesterday morning their panic rippled through the markets in very unusual ways, including with TSLA.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Most of us seem to be completely missing the point about what the IRDA Gigapreses will be able to do with the Grohmann touch added. Hints do exist:
"Jerome added a note, with great emphasis, that the Tesla Grohmann equipment has created much better machines, dramatically improving the overall manufacturing efficiency of the Model 3. He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that."
Our Interview With Tesla President Jerome Guillen, Part Deux

Please appreciate that that interview was in 2019.Next, if one wants to have ones mind truly blown check out the Tesla patent applications. I won't link it, but just think that is figures out a way to operate three or four of those gigantic IRDA machines together! That means that they are trying to cast what looks to be an entire BIW in a single piece. Impossible, sure but the:

GIGA PRESS

...were thought to be impossible too. Tesla succeeded in part because of proprietary alloys that could be stable enough for the machine. So far that is what is happening in Fremont and Shanghai.

Next there will be unprecedented joint operation of multiple presses, perhaps in Brandenburg and Austin. Elon has stated that Berlin could have a difficult ramp for the Model Y because of unprecedented new technologies. He also has said they're trying to build cars "like the toy cars are built". FWIW toy cars are mostly cast in a single piece.

Whatever actually happens all this is a massive effort to make vehicle production far cheaper when production volume is high. The obvious conclusion is that vehicles designed in China and Germany will use these technologies.

The implications of this are a production cost reduction on the order of 20-30%. Then there is the vastly higher stiffness and much less defect.

This, by itself, suggests we've seen nothing yet that is so consequential except, perhaps FSD or 4680's. I think it will be worth at least US$1,000 per share. I think we'll see the whole thing operating within three years, perhaps earlier. In the meantime each iteration is already paying for itself very quickly.

Fantastic post!
I also geeked out re. the notorious patent application, but I forgot about it until this post, due to all the other amazing Tesla and TSLA news.
Further speculation off mega-casting phased roll-out:

• Soon: Under body cast (front + battery + back)
• Late 2021 - early 2022: Half-body cast
• 2023-24: Full BIW cast. Crazy cheap & crazy high quality.

Maybe 1K per share is low balling, since this cost-saving will further fuel the hopefully soon to come public FSD and/or start of robotaxi roll-out (2023?).
If 'mega'-casting allows Tesla to accelerate the advent of the first 5 million robotaxis by years, how much is that really worth?

PS
Should Tesla buy IDRA? Or are they already so deep into co-design and development that they could, if needed, 'instantiate' an Idra like internal unit, should need arise?

 

[Johan]

It's too early to speculate on how this plays out, and maybe GME is just a one-off, but it sure seems like what is happening with GME is part of a larger trend that is unmistakeable: small retail investors not only pouring money into the markets, but doing so in very aggressive ways. Lots of options. Lots of high flying stocks. Communicating publicly, and conspiring online.

I'm sure there's already been a mutation of new retail investors interested in shorting, and that may cause new peril down the road, but for now, most of the action is on the long side. And that just adds one more risk to anyone with a short position in an equity that has a concentrated short position, including TSLA. How the big boys are going to deal with this risk is the question. They sure haven't dealt very well with it so far with GME, and for at least an hour yesterday morning their panic rippled through the markets in very unusual ways, including with TSLA.

To be crass, the likely way they will "deal with it" is the way they usually do, by sheningangs that they know they can get away with. To be concrete; the market makers can halt trading, and when trading resumes suddenly there is an ample supply of shares for sale for shorts to cover, of course these shares have been created out of thin air (but remember "the market makers are there to supply liquidity"), and the rally is halted. Now normally what they expect is that the herd mentality of the retail investors will be that they get scared, and start jumping ship. Well guess what it didn't happen with GME. Not once, not twice, not yesterday, not today. Instead the "HODL" and post more memes - and they are smart enough to know that this is kind of stand off where you have to be more determined than the other part and stick to your guns, and believe in your fundamental thesis. The big boys are too used to being able to shake the tree, take out the stop loss orders, and they've been relying on having access to level 2 trading data for ages which is a great advantage (yes they can see your stops). In this "new era" it will be interesting to see how these things play out. The sad thing is that you have the "too big to fail" phenomenon which means they can get away with anything in the end - 2008 being the latest proof of this - while the regular people, small time investors and the tax payers are always left holding the bag.

 

[Etna]

sorry if repost

Elon Musk says he's 'super fired up' for fighting climate change with Joe Biden

-Elon Musk is 'super fired up' about President Joe Biden's focus on the environment and wants to find a way to help out on the administration's initiatives for expanding green energy and fighting climate change, the billionaire CEO told Fortune Magazine.

-"I think this is great. I feel very optimistic about the future of sustainable energy with the new administration," Musk told Fortune of the Biden team's plans, joking to the outlet that he wants to make contact with the administration but knows they've been busy in their first week in office. "Not that we should get complacent or anything, but the wind is at our back for solving the climate crisis with the new administration."

This is reference to Fortune Magazine Article interview with Musk. (paywall that I dont have access)

I read the rest of the article, pretty bad reporting.

Fortune attempts to paint Musk as someone shifting with the political wind, insinuating that he was mostly leaning towards the Republicans, being anti-union and all, with some good measure of false information quoting that infamous 2018 Huffpost hit piece pretending Musk funded a PAC attempting to keep Republican control of the House, with a link to the article: Elon Musk A Major Donor To House Republican PAC, Filings Show

Fortune obviously did not mention that the only politician Musk has ever publicly endorsed is Andrew Yang, who is not exactly a Republican.

Last two paragraphs:

-"Musk says he has “not wanted to” reach out yet to Biden. “They have had a lot to do,” he laughs. But he says aides are already in informal contact with the White House. “My team, being very pro-environment, they know a lot of people that Biden is bringing in.”

Once those White House officials are ready, Musk says, “we will do our best to be helpful to the new administration with respect to climate.”

 

[Tyler34]

To be crass, the likely way they will "deal with it" is the way they usually do, by sheningangs that they know they can get away with. To be concrete; the market makers can halt trading, and when trading resumes suddenly there is an ample supply of shares for sale for shorts to cover, of course these shares have been created out of thin air (but remember "the market makers are there to supply liquidity"), and the rally is halted. Now normally what they expect is that the herd mentality of the retail investors will be that they get scared, and start jumping ship. Well guess what it didn't happen with GME. Not once, not twice, not yesterday, not today. Instead the "HODL" and post more memes - and they are smart enough to know that this is kind of stand off where you have to be more determined than the other part and stick to your guns, and believe in your fundamental thesis. The big boys are too used to being able to shake the tree, take out the stop loss orders, and they've been relying on having access to level 2 trading data for ages which is a great advantage (yes they can see your stops). In this "new era" it will be interesting to see how these things play out. The sad thing is that you have the "too big to fail" phenomenon which means they can get away with anything in the end - 2008 being the latest proof of this - while the regular people, small time investors and the tax payers are always left holding the bag.

Or brokers make the margin required so F'ing high that someone with 375k excess liquidity was denied buying 100 shares today at $90/share. I'm just about over interactive brokers predatory margin practices.

 

[dgodfrey]

I've seen this movie before. SP keeps hitting it's head on $890 for 1/2 day till all the sell orders are filled. Then it's off to the races. I fear for my CC's.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - half hour ago: Nancy Pelosi Buys Tesla Calls, Stands To Benefit From New Biden EV Plan

Excerpt:

It was revealed over the weekend that Speaker of the House and California Rep. Nancy Pelosi purchased 25 call options of Tesla Inc. The purchases could have been done by Pelosi or her husband Paul, who runs a venture capital firm.

The options were bought at a stake price of $500 and expiration of March 18, 2022. Pelosi paid between $500,000 and $1,000,000 for the options, according to the disclosure.

 

[jbcarioca]

...

Indeed, if true, we would have a 3rd fuse (along with DBE/4680 and FSD) that could drive TSLA to infinity and beyond.

Yes, I do believe it. The patent is a hint, but excludes quite a lot of crucial data, notably the alloys and technical implementation of the approach. The reason for thinking 20-30% is that this approach eliminates hundreds of individual parts with one casting. That serves to vastly simplify vehicle assembly, reduces alignment errors, fasteners and all the labor, both human and robotic to assemble the structure. Obviously the structural battery approach eliminates many more parts.

Clearly this is not yet operating. It sounds improbable. It is happening.

 

[adiggs]

I don't disagree. However, I would guess the SP takes a temporary hit if Tesla guides to 750K. If that's what they do and the market reacts the way I think it will, I will be turning over and shaking my couch for more change to purchase shares.

Y'all got some amazing couches. Just amazing.

 

[Curt Renz]

Gizmodo - 2 hours ago: Joe Biden Is Putting the Weight of Government Behind Electric Vehicles

Excerpt:

President Joe Biden is using one of the most powerful tools at his disposal to speed up the electric vehicle transition: the purchasing power of the federal government. On Monday, he announced he’s phasing out the federal government’s use of fossil fuel-powered cars, replacing them with an all-electric fleet, during a briefing about his “Buy American” executive order.

 

[adiggs]

Yes, I do believe it. The patent is a hint, but excludes quite a lot of crucial data, notably the alloys and technical implementation of the approach. The reason for thinking 20-30% is that this approach eliminates hundreds of individual parts with one casting. That serves to vastly simplify vehicle assembly, reduces alignment errors, fasteners and all the labor, both human and robotic to assemble the structure. Obviously the structural battery approach eliminates many more parts.

Clearly this is not yet operating. It sounds improbable. It is happening.

In your estimation, would a manufacturing technique lead to an increased rate of cars being totaled from accidents, including more minor accidents?

It seems to me like it would - fewer parts that can be removed and replaced, but maybe it would need a frame bending accident either way, so not as big of a difference as I think.

 

[john94si]

VM already volunteered to take the gov EV cars task on for Biden