Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

one caveat for those that have posted their opinions regarding the gm EV ad.
In order to properly form an opinion regarding the viewer you must first put yourself in their shoes.
They are just a little hammered.
They are looking at the commercials from with the idea that the commercial will be really fun to watch.
And the commercial is put out there to get people talking about EV's right then and there.

I have no real understanding of its effectiveness.

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla China-Designed New Model from Giga Shanghai Is Moving Forward, G (tesmanian.com)

Tesla has received environmental report approval for Gigafactory Shanghai that shows that new manufacturing processes have been added for a “new model early launch project.” It may indicate not only that the company has already developed a new model, but also intends to begin production soon.

New model incoming it seems.

 

[The Accountant]

2) @The Accountant Did Phase 1 really only cost $1B? Does that include the Loans/Leases?

Hard to say but from my review of the 2019 10K (which provides more details than the 10Qs), I would say $1B may be correct.

The 2019 10K states that the cost to build Shanghai would come from RMB 11.25B loans- which converts to US$1.7B. It is possible Phase 1 was only $1B.

Much of the investment in Gigafactory Shanghai has been and is expected to continue to be provided through local debt financing, including a RMB 9.0 billion fixed asset term facility and a RMB 2.25 billion working capital revolving facility that our subsidiary entered into in December 2019​

Also from the 2019 10K, Tesla comments that $1.33B of CAPEX was for Shanghai and what I assume to be Fremont Model 3 and Model Y. Phase 1 was substantially completed by Dec 2019 so from the information below, we can conclude it was less than $1.33B.

Cash flows from investing activities and their variability across each period related primarily to capital expenditures, which were $1.33 billion during 2019, mainly for Gigafactory Shanghai construction, Model 3 production, and Model Y preparations​

 

[Thekiwi]

My favourite part is around 38:00 where Sandy gives his inner fanboi free reign and suggests Tesla should go to 42V. But yeah, the entire video is a great watch. Two engineers having fun talking engineering.

One thing to note is Elon essentially says that they will redesign Fremont factory at some point after Texas & Berlin Factories are ramped up, including adopting mega castings for the model 3. So perhaps in 2022 we might see a big portion of Fremont shut down longer than normal for an extended retooling/changing layout process. Presumably we are only talking about weeks rather than months I'm guessing. This was during the segment when Sandy was asking why the model 3 doesn't yet have the mega castings like the model Y.

 

[SunCatcher]

You can buy a Chevy Bolt today.

End of 2021 Hummer EV arrives.

Fall 2022 Cadillac Lyric reaches dealership.

No, you can't make this stuff up.

I'll believe that when I see it. Not saying it won't happen, but Legacy Automakers have been promising these things for so long now that they really have lost credence. And as a Chevy Volt owner earlier on (and a very happy one at the time), when they stopped manufacturing what was truly a successful product, I lost respect for them altogether. I just don't think their heart is in it. My opinion. Maybe this will change, but I will need to be convinced.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Wed, Feb 03, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Options Writers Hold Sway on Low Volume Day"

Pre-Market:

Volume: 280,145
SP High $879.64
SP Low $874.00​

Main Session:

Traded: $15,386,358,698.31 ($15.39B)
Volume: 17,865,124
VWAP: $861.25

Close: $872.79 / VWAP: 100.33%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $837.50 (+$17.50 from Tue)​

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 2.049468% (Feb 02)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $810.161B / $759.331B = 106.69%
NB: Yahoo hasn't updated Mkt Cap re 7.91M shares issued Dec 11th

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11th shares ~$6.90B)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $795.67B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $500.85B

Mkt Cap req'd for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Mkt Cap req'd for 9th tranche ($500B) likely achieved Wed, Feb 03, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones req'd (chart at link).
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 43.5% (42nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 36.6% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.87% of Short Volume (49th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @NicoV "I doubt TSLA will go down just because Bezos steps down"

Comment: "Any excuse to short TSLA"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

"Actual production model may vary. Not currently available"

Then what are you advertising???

To generate interest.

And to change perceptions of GM.

Survey after survey shows consumers show lots of interest in Tesla but not EVs in general.

Early adopters support Tesla because Tesla supports The Mission in a way no legacy automakers does.

Also, when push came to shove GM sided with the Trump administration over California.

GM wants to send the signal to people that actually buy EVs and those that will actually consider EVs in the near future that GM is on the side of the Electric Vehicle Revolution.

I have said in the past a Model 3 purchase helps Tesla build more Gigafactories.

Buying a Bolt enables GM to sell another Escalade.

In a subtle way GM also wants to get across that they are on the side of Angels. And that they are also cool and hip, like Elon/Tesla.

If not, it doesn't matter how good of an EV GM makes.

 

[RobStark]

I'll believe that when I see it. Not saying it won't happen, but Legacy Automakers have been promising these things for so long now that they really have lost credence. And as a Chevy Volt owner earlier on (and a very happy one at the time), when they stopped manufacturing what was truly a successful product, I lost respect for them altogether. I just don't think their heart is in it. My opinion. Maybe this will change, but I will need to be convinced.

Volt was a money loser and a compliance vehicle. It was always meant to be low volume built in a non dedicated assembly line.

GM is currently building Giga Ohio to manufacture 30 GWh of batteries per year to feed Factory Zero.

GM is also currently building Factory Zero to make ~400k EVs per year in Michigan.

GM isn't spending $Bs to not manufacture EVs.

 

[Cattledog]

I don't think they need to say please. They are Too Big To Fail(tm).

But not too big to flail...

 

[Duffer]

Dana Hull? Hmm, reputation....?

Careful. This is a family friendly forum. Any discussion of her morals would make a trollop seem saintly. Not to mention, being rated at least PG-13.

 

[RobStark]

Bolt - sells at a loss.

Hummer - ridiculous. Will sell initially and then drop.

Lyric - looks somewhat promising. We shall see.

Bolt SUV should sell well and at a profit. Particularly of Fed Credits restored to GM(and Tesla). Demand for compelling EVs is simply higher than Tesla's ability to produce them.

Model S and Model X well sold then dropped.

That is pretty much every luxury vehicle. Hummer will be massively profitable because there are lots of ridiculous people.

 

[SunCatcher]

Volt was a money loser and a compliance vehicle. It was always meant to be low volume built in a non dedicated assembly line.

GM is currently building Giga Ohio to manufacture 30 GWh of batteries per year to feed Factory Zero.

GM is also currently building Factory Zero to make ~400k EVs per year in Michigan.

GM isn't spending $Bs to not manufacture EVs.

So let me get this straight: GM was not dedicated before... but they're dedicated now? I've seen this movie so many times now that I'm not going to expect a different ending until it shows itself.

I still think that the GM commercial benefits Tesla far more than it possibly could GM, and therefore I don't get it, and find it laughable. Well, Will Ferrell might have something to do with that.
Sorry for the off topic.

 

[RobStark]

Of course advertising would “help” sales. But the true question is, is it needed? I’m glad Tesla doesn’t pay to advertise. Not yet anyway.

As far as FSD in China goes. Once FSD rolls out to China for some people and videos are made of it hopefully working well, it will sell itself.

The question isn't "is it needed." The correct question is will marginal profits from advertising exceed the cost of adverting. Done well, undoubtedly the answer is yes.

Just like Model S/X would sell itself. As sales went from 100k/year to 57k/year.

 

[SO16]

Bolt SUV should sell well and at a profit. Particularly of Fed Credits restored to GM(and Tesla). Demand for compelling EVs is simply higher than Tesla's ability to produce them.

Model S and Model X well sold then dropped.

That is pretty much every luxury vehicle. Hummer will be massively profitable because there are lots of ridiculous people.

The Model S and X sold well for quite a long time. I doubt the Hummer will sell as well for as long. And the S and X will probably start selling well again since the refresh.

I agree the Hummer will be profitable.

 

[RobStark]

So let me get this straight: GM was not dedicated before... but they're dedicated now? I've seen this movie so many times now that I'm not going to expect a different ending until it shows itself.

I still think that the GM commercial benefits Tesla far more than it possibly could GM, and therefore I don't get it, and find it laughable. Well, Will Ferrell might have something to do with that.
Sorry for the off topic.

Yes, when you spend $1B on the Volt program and spend no adverting to support the Volt that is not dedicated. That is a compliance program.

When GM spends $27B on the Ultium program and spends on Superbowl ads 1 year in advance of the first Ultium vehicle reaching dealership that is dedication.

 

[RobStark]

The Model S and X sold well for quite a long time. I doubt the Hummer will sell as well for as long. And the S and X will probably start selling well again since the refresh.

I didn’t say the Hummer would be unprofitable.

I am very confident Hummer will sell as well for as long as Model S.

It is what many want without the guilt or public scorn of the ICE Hummer.

 

[generalenthu]

Looks like apple & Hyundai-kia partnership is close to being finalized per CNBC.

Mild drop after the news, but it sounds like they're not even going to sell cars to customers.

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1357101177431851012?s=19

 

[SO16]

The question isn't "is it needed." The correct question is will marginal profits from advertising exceed the cost of adverting. Done well, undoubtedly the answer is yes.

Just like Model S/X would sell itself. As sales went from 100k/year to 57k/year.

What really caused the S/X sales to drop was Tesla’s removal of the lower variant. Many of those sales most likely went to the higher end model 3. Newer tech.

Now the S/X are back to being flagship vehicles.

And GM’s ads will help.

 

[MC3OZ]

My favourite part is around 38:00 where Sandy gives his inner fanboi free reign and suggests Tesla should go to 42V. But yeah, the entire video is a great watch. Two engineers having fun talking engineering.

I'll be interested to see if the Roadster includes 42V and/or carbon-fiber.

Because a great way to do the Roadster would be lighter weight, lower drag, and less rolling resistance.

If they can get a lower CD than the new Model S, that would be excellent.

 

[EVortex]

You can buy a Chevy Bolt today.

End of 2021 Hummer EV arrives.

Fall 2022 Cadillac Lyric reaches dealership.

No, you can't make this stuff up.

When does the EV1 hit the showrooms?