Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

Is the improved cooling on the 3’s packs unrelated to the 2170’s? Seems that’s what’s allowing 250kW supercharge rate, which is why I ask.

You could use the same cooling technique on smaller cells.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Is the improved cooling on the 3’s packs unrelated to the 2170’s? Seems that’s what’s allowing 250kW supercharge rate, which is why I ask.

The improved cooling in the Model 3 is unrelated to the 2170 form factor, but it is related to the Model 3 new pack design. ie. Model S/X could get a refreshed battery pack with better cooling and stay with the 18650s. The 250 kW rate in addition almost certainly has to do with cell chemistry improvements in the 2170s. But again, you could put such cell improvements into an 18650.

 

[dc_h]

To whoever took that screenshot:

Dude... charge your cell phone....

Not my phone. I thought it was Stuart’s when I copied the image.

 

[TradingInvest]

So, the law changed recently? Or is it changing by the end of this year?

I don't know about the law change. It makes a lot of sense to use cameras to replace side mirrors. It's about time to update the law to reflect technology improvement. People who tried the camera/screen approach gave high remarks to it.

 

[TradingInvest]

For some unfathomable reason Fred failed to list three other obvious reasons Tesla might have delayed the store closures:

• To give prospective customers who DO prefer a retail experience more time to use the stores,
• delay the change by 3 weeks in the busiest 3 weeks of the quarter - which period of time by historic seasonal patterns handles as many sales as the whole quarter so far,
• to give affected retail employees time to find another position within Tesla, or to find another job.

Actually, while Elon is far from perfect, the ability to change strategy quickly and then readjust and even cancel decisions on the fly without being worried about "losing face" is one of the greatest strengths of Elon.

Exactly because Elon knows that he is far from perfect, while he also knows the value of organizational agility.

I've seen so many successful companies go in a new strategic direction based on a well researched, well prepared, well communicated and well executed move which nevertheless was a bad idea that wasn't working, and then doubling down on that dumb idea, just because the CEO got married to the idea and didn't want to be seen "backtracking" and "losing face", and was also surrounded by sycophants who isolated him from honest feedback.

Donald Trump is perhaps the most egregious example of ego driven stubbornness and isolation from reality: of the literally thousands of hours of public utterings of Donald Trump you cannot find him admitting to a single mistake and apologizing for that mistake. My claim is easy to falsify: go on and give me a link to Donald Trump admitting to a mistake sincerely.

Trump's style of management resulted in 6 bankruptcies, including bankrupting a casino during the 90s boom (!) - which took some extra special skill...

Are you really making the argument that it turns people into cult members to approve of a management style that has resulted in great growth and zero bankruptcies, over a management style that resulted in 6 bankruptcies and performed worse than had Trump put all his inheritance into the S&P 500?

Maybe Tesla need the stores to allow people to reserve Model Y before March 14th. The Model 3 reservation was a huge success.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't know about the law change. It makes a lot of sense to use cameras to replace side mirrors. It's about time to update the law to reflect technology improvement. People who tried the camera/screen approach gave high remarks to it.

Ok, but if the law hasn’t changed and won’t be changing by end of year, then MY will in fact have side mirrors regardless of any picture on the Internet. Right?

 

[tinm]

Does a self-driving car really need a HUD?

Bigger screen to watch movies!

 

[Fact Checking]

I know, I just posted the link because I thought it was relevant to the price action.

Side note:
TSLA | Volumebot
Short selling volume these past few days is hilariously low. Bears know that if they short here they can be incinerated by a tweet or two

Note that it's important to see which exact days:

• During March 1,4,5 short selling was very intense and explains a fair chunk of the extra volume, while TSLA dropped from $320 to $270.
• During March 6,7,8 short selling was much lower, and TSLA went back to regular volumes, and price recovered to $284 - about a third of the drop, against bad macro.

I.e. this was a well executed bear raid, carefully timed to the FUD surrounding the $920m debt payment, the false narratives of the SR announcement and the various minor negative news whose relevance was exaggerated by the press.

The "start signal" for the bear raid was apparently this re-tweet of the bankwuptcy thesis by Jim Chanos, and a frenzy of anti-Tesla tweets from him:

Twitter

"Extremely unclear as to how $TSLA is trading above $2.00 given the information available to the market. It's over. There is no viable path forward."​

Chanos also retweeted the Model 3 China customs scare story, although it seems he later deleted the tweet.

The China customs news turned out to be a nothingburger of missing labels. Most media reports carefully obscured the real reasons of the suspension (primarily a component was labeled in English, not in Chinese), and many news outlets underreported or didn't even report on the resolution, which maximized the negative effect.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla posted a picture on the website, it seems the Model Y indeed has no side mirrors. This is really good.

Here's the new Model Y teaser image:

There is a new "Model Y" tab on the Tesla website:

Model Y | Tesla​

Plus the vehicle listing got reordered to: S3XY.

If there are going to be Model Y pre-orders then I'd expect them to be online only. Maybe there's also going to be a signature version?

Regarding virtual side mirror displays: maybe (rear looking side cameras are not installed yet, the side of the car is a blind spot, and with HW3 there's enough processing power), but it would be a weird asymmetry to the Model 3.

If they do it on the Y I'd expect it to be introduced on the 3, S and X as well, as an extra option. Great way to increase the price of the top configurations, allow for nice photo shoots, while still having a low entry price as well.

If they indeed do it then I'd not be surprised at a third display as well: a HUD.

 

[kyzhk]

You can already kind of see the full outline.

 

[Antares Nebula]

From the Citron note today:
https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Citron-Expects-Tesla-Rebound-to-320.pdf

"When Tesla unveils its new Model S, we promise you that we will be one of the first customers on the waiting list."

He even has a picture of some kind of souped up black Model S. Speculation or does he know something more?

 

[Fact Checking]

View attachment 384444

You can already kind of see the full outline.

Cool hidden pixels at the bottom, I'm not sure it was intended that way.

Did you do this yourself? If yes, mind putting a similar outline of the 3 below it, for comparison?

 

[Fact Checking]

Maybe Tesla need the stores to allow people to reserve Model Y before March 14th. The Model 3 reservation was a huge success.

Could backfire: big queues before stores, with overworked employees who might be laid off a few days later?

 

[Cobbler]

It's called model Y: you take the model 3 and stretch the image on the Y-axis

 

[Fact Checking]

View attachment 384444

You can already kind of see the full outline.

Also note the file name of the image:

/modely/[email protected]​

 

[Antares Nebula]

I think a large part of this recent bear raid was due to the Whitney Tilson letter a few weeks ago. Tilson closed his fund years ago (due to underperformance, which in turn was largely due to a short position on TSLA gone awry when Tilson shorted it at 35 and it ran up into the hundreds). But he has since been sending out investment letters. The thing is that, after he closed his fund, he admitted years ago that it was a mistake to short Tesla (he also read the biography by Ashlee Vance and was impressed) and advised all his short friends to stop shorting it as well. But over the last year he has been itching to go at Tesla again, making periodic bearish comments to the media. And now he finally made his sub $100 call.

What terrible timing though. Years ago, after he got burnt, he could have went short at 280 and rode it down to 140, or more recently from 380 to 240. But no, these guys wait and wait, and then call the short when the stock is significantly down. Now sure anything can happen, but I am willing to bet (in fact I am betting), that we are about to start another epic bull run from here, going to 500 and higher eventually. He's going to make the same mistake (or rather his newsletter clients are) that he made years ago when he shorted it at 35. Very similar also to Chanos when he called the bottom with his short call at 180 in the fall of 2016 (and it went to 380). It's going to be epic if this happens again. How many times will Tilson eat crow before he learns?

 

[tinm]

Also note the file name of the image:

/modely/[email protected]​

“hero” is a standard web design term referring to the most prominent image on a given web page

 

[CorneliusXX]

Also note the file name of the image:

/modely/[email protected]​

There is also a hero@2x and hero@3x. Not sure if this is the same image being scaled or three separate images.

 

[Antares Nebula]

The Citron letter was interesting and funny. Everyone should read it if they get a chance.
https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Citron-Expects-Tesla-Rebound-to-320.pdf

Some interesting tidbits in there. Probably my favorite line:

"Mark Spiegel is a nice and smart man but no one has ever heard of him until he started to dedicate his life to hating Tesla."

But that's the thing, Mark *appears to be* a nice guy. But not really. He spews vulgarities at Tesla on a daily basis on Twitter. I just don't know how anybody can take him seriously, much less give him money to manage.

 

[tti_7]

Played with contrast and lighting...