Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Oh yes. Volume is anemic.

Lol, true. But also note that Retail volume (reported via FINRA) was only 41.4% (40th Percentile) of all trading done on the NASDAQ today.

That means that 20% more volume than typical was done by MMs and large hedge funds today (the one's that don't report thru FINRA).

That wasn't Retail selling (in spite of the best efforts of GB and other Twitter Randos). This was a bare raid by MMs and shortzes, pure and simple. And best to be ignored, IMO. Tesla's prospects are unchanged.

Am I seeing this right that we are seeing the price NOT moving up even with volume increasing, unlike what we saw the last couple of weeks?

@Artful Dodger

Yes today was shorting by MMs and hedgies, a pure bare raid (based on b.s.) with the target of the lower BB (as seen in the chart below):

Cheers!

 

[Mokuzai]

So it begins...

 

[Singuy]

So it begins...

View attachment 635772

35k before incentives for a new roof and solar? Wtf? Tesla needs to charge 10-20% more and bring up those negative margins. My solar panels from Tesla was 39k before incentives for 14.625w and that was WITH an aggressive price match at 2.65w/dollar at the time.

 

[kanweg]

Instead the only option of 400 k cars with $7k incentive, it would be nice if manufacturers could elect to have 800 k with 3.5 k. Freedom for them to serve their customers best. Possibly better for EV adoption. I think it would serve Tesla better as well.

 

[Johnny Ma]

35k before incentives for a new roof and solar? Wtf? Tesla needs to charge 10-20% more and bring up those negative margins. My solar panels from Tesla was 39k before incentives for 14.625w and that was WITH an aggressive price match at 2.65w/dollar at the time.

This argument sounds a lot like, "amazon should charge more for their books so they become more profitable." Tesla is building a global distributed energy company. Don't get hung up on the near term.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

35k before incentives for a new roof and solar? Wtf? Tesla needs to charge 10-20% more and bring up those negative margins. My solar panels from Tesla was 39k before incentives for 14.625w and that was WITH an aggressive price match at 2.65w/dollar at the time.

It's a fascinating time for Tesla Energy and I wish we had a more robust conversation about it here. Seems we're trending away from deep thoughts and more toward "I'm buying tomorrow, are you?" discussion.

Every size array they offer is $2.01/W right now(before incentives) How insane is that? The only reasons it's not highlighted and talked about more are the lack of marketing at the company level and the lack of sales at the ground level. Not that I want to see either of those boosted! Tesla is just far far ahead of the market and customer base.

If you live in a state where SRECs are pretty high, Tesla will also monetize them up front and slash it right off the pricetag. The valuation is terrible from what I've seen, relative to what you'd see over 10 years of just keeping them, but it's like $6-12k in some areas!

I couldn't be more excited to see how this product moves post-covid. I think the volume of residential solar Tesla installs in 2022 will be something we'd find unimaginable today. Minor dent in the overall mission, but huge for changing everyone's mindset about energy in general.

 

[buttershrimp]

What is Hypothetically best move of someone with past success from selling some Tesla decided to buy high again at high entry 885 and over past weeks as price dropped, started buying dips using margin...break even price would be at 863 as of now. Curious how people here wanting might adjust. Keep in mind if Sp decreases to 760, this individual will have lost the gains from past success with Tesla and experience depression. Any hypothetical but serious answers are much appreciated!

 

[Criscmt]

Lol, true. But also note that Retail volume (reported via FINRA) was only 41.4% (40th Percentile) of all trading done on the NASDAQ today.

That means that 20% more volume than typical was done by MMs and large hedge funds today (the one's that don't report thru FINRA).

That wasn't Retail selling (in spite of the best efforts of GB and other Twitter Randos). This was a bare raid by MMs and shortzes, pure and simple. And best to be ignored, IMO. Tesla's prospects are unchanged.



Yes today was shorting by MMs and hedgies, a pure bare raid (based on b.s.) with the target of the lower BB (as seen in the chart below):

View attachment 635773

Cheers!

We touched the lower BB after several months (last time was in November). Do you see upward pressure from here?

 

[Singuy]

It's a fascinating time for Tesla Energy and I wish we had a more robust conversation about it here. Seems we're trending away from deep thoughts and more toward "I'm buying tomorrow, are you?" discussion.

Every size array they offer is $2.01/W right now(before incentives) How insane is that? The only reasons it's not highlighted and talked about more are the lack of marketing at the company level and the lack of sales at the ground level. Not that I want to see either of those boosted! Tesla is just far far ahead of the market and customer base.

If you live in a state where SRECs are pretty high, Tesla will also monetize them up front and slash it right off the pricetag. The valuation is terrible from what I've seen, relative to what you'd see over 10 years of just keeping them, but it's like $6-12k in some areas!

I couldn't be more excited to see how this product moves post-covid. I think the volume of residential solar Tesla installs in 2022 will be something we'd find unimaginable today. Minor dent in the overall mission, but huge for changing everyone's mindset about energy in general.

I don't know why Tesla needs to be so aggressive with pricing when it seems like production ramp is killing margins right now. There's a gigantic backlog of solar roof. There's zero reason to sell them at a loss right now.

 

[Criscmt]

Yep, it's pretty explicitly restored in the GREEN Act which was reintroduced by the House subcommittees yesterday. Here's the bill description: https://mikethompson.house.gov/sites/mikethompson.house.gov/files/GREEN Act 2021 sxs.pdf



So Tesla gets an additional 400,000 vehicles worth of ITC. Also worth noting they're introducing a 30% energy storage tax credit that would apply to Powerwall and be stand-alone from the solar tax credit, and a $2,500 refundable credit for low-income families purchasing used EVs.

Interesting, no income limits added. Some were expecting the restored EV credit to be limited to those below certain Annual Gross Income. Of course, I do see a $500 reduction for companies like Tesla which went past 200,000.

 

[Criscmt]

My daughter provided some background:

I [she] was baffled by Tesla's rapid drop today and decided to probe a little deeper. I soon stumbled on this article: Is This Why Tesla Just Plunged? | ZeroHedge - it seems someone bought 223,000 way OTM Tesla puts with a $20 strike for March. After reading it, I immediately remembered that I had recently (6th Feb) seen a tweet posted by Michael Burry (of the big short) regarding delta-gamma hedging: https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1357829213357711360. As most are aware, Burry is vocally short on Tesla.

In the article he links it says:

a) If NOPE is high negative — This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worth more, and a lot of calls are now worth less/worth less (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell/short more shares, pushing the stock price down.

Hello friends!



Burry was also tweeting about FSD earlier, so he was clearly doing some research. Maybe he wanted to try out this method of buying OTM puts in order to encourage market makers to sell off shares so that he could cover his short position? Maybe he just wanted to see if it works?



I don't know but the entire thing seems really off to me. Please let me know what you think.

Does it (significant reverse gamma-hedge) happen when the puts strike so far OTM (like the $20 in this case)?

@FrankSG @generalenthu, and of course others, comments please?

 

[Buckminster]

Great post from GME thread:

Yeah, that's not how big hedge funds with MM priviledges hide their FTDs. They do it by swapping them in collusion with eachother to continuously reset the FTD clock counter.

Doing this, abusive hedge funds can keep naked short positions open for years without ever reporting them to the SEC. In the mean time, they try to bankrupt the business they're attacking so that the shorts NEVER have to be covered.

The methodology of the attack is well-detailed at this site:

Counterfeiting Stock 2.0​

But it all comes down to exploiting the Options Market Maker's exemption to the SEC's prohibition against naked short selling (Regulation SHO).

And Tesla proved in Aug 2020 that they know how to disarm their attackers: share dividends. Because Options Market Makers can not counterfeit dividend shares.

I look forward to a time when this understanding spreads to other Companies under shortzes attack like GameStop (who failed to respond to the January event and missed their opportunity).

Although, it's now clear that r/WSB's is fully aware of this cure to the disease of naked short selling. Onward!

Cheers!

Glossary in the link was useful to me.

 

[StealthP3D]

35k before incentives for a new roof and solar? Wtf? Tesla needs to charge 10-20% more and bring up those negative margins. My solar panels from Tesla was 39k before incentives for 14.625w and that was WITH an aggressive price match at 2.65w/dollar at the time.

Prices will continue to drop.

As you must know, that's one thing that makes TSLA such a compelling investment.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know why Tesla needs to be so aggressive with pricing when it seems like production ramp is killing margins right now. There's a gigantic backlog of solar roof. There's zero reason to sell them at a loss right now.

Gosh, just think how much money we would all make if you were Tesla's CEO! I wish the people running Tesla knew what you know.

/s

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting, no income limits added. Some were expecting the restored EV credit to be limited to those below certain Annual Gross Income. Of course, I do see a $500 reduction for companies like Tesla which went past 200,000.

So, that $500 reduction doesn't apply to other makers as they cross the 200,000 threshold? I had assumed it would be applied equally to every manufacturer.

 

[Singuy]

Gosh, just think how much money we would all make if you were Tesla's CEO! I wish the people running Tesla knew what you know.

/s

My parents got a tile roof quote and it was 59k. Solar roof is absurdly cheap in comparison. But hey if Tesla is in the business of giving it away at the expenses of margins because apparently there are an abundance of tiles laying for the purpose of the mission then sure. But are there spare tiles laying around?

 

[chrsk]

Pre-market in Frankfurt shows 814$. Will it recover, or will we see it slip below 800 today...?

 

[StealthP3D]

My parents got a tile roof quote and it was 59k. Solar roof is absurdly cheap in comparison. But hey if Tesla is in the business of giving it away at the expenses of margins because apparently there are an abundance of tiles laying for the purpose of the mission then sure. But are there spare tiles laying around?

The people at Tesla who set the pricing know the answer to this. These are the same people who construct the business plan for the solar roof. I'm sorry you think you know more than those in the thick of the action.

 

[lklundin]

That short-seller tweet
https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1359621222904991745
reeks of short-and-distort.

While there was indeed some real volume on the March 19 20$ puts, the resulting open interest was just under 10k contracts, which is not particularly much for such extremely low delta puts.

So it seems to me that the tweet was just the toss of some big but benign volume number out on social media in the hope it would confuse some into selling:
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1359554792452980737

 

[Artful Dodger]

We touched the lower BB after several months (last time was in November). Do you see upward pressure from here?

Meh, up, down on technicals, I don't really care. That's short-term trader-stuff. What I'm more interested in is the next big news that moves us forward.

Stuff like S/X shipping, or Tesla declaring a 2:1 share dividend, or Zach using Tesla's newly-created block-chain technology to issue 1:1 digital shares which can't be counterfeited by naked shorting, and have their entire chain of custody encoded into the cyrpto-key for each share...

Yeah, that'll work.

Cheers!