Most people speculate it's at 33-35k.in fact it's numerically impossible for Tesla to be down as prices never dropped below 40k since Tesla announced their purchase, which was the previous ATH.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This is why I can’t wait for the Cybertruck to come out. Firstly for selfish reasons - so I can sell my last ICE vehicle (RV towing duty) to some unsuspecting ICE lover before the inevitable rapid ramp up in depreciation in used ICE vehicle hits.
Secondly, once the die-hard truck fans discover how superior BEVs are to ICE, it’s over for ICE vehicles. I live in Truck Country and while the average truck guy would not likely buy a BEV truck on their own (emotional decision), the bean counters where they work will increasingly insist on BEV trucks at work for the cost savings (rational decision). Then the workers get exposed to the wonders of BEV trucks and it slowly dawns on them that they’ve been misinformed all these years. Then their next truck purchase will have them seriously considering a BEV.
It’s already apparent to those passionate about performance cars that other than exotic superstars, BEVs are the way to go and Plaid+ and the Roadster will put any remaining doubters to rest. Once the truck lovers get converted too, that will account for the majority of people who are passionate about their vehicles finally being converted to understanding the benefits of BEV over ICE. The remainder are looking for some combination of practical, affordable, reliable, comfortable vehicle that suits their lifestyle and/or personal style. They won’t have any loyalty to the ICE drivetrain. If a BEV hits the above points that are important to them as well as our better than an ICE vehicle does (which Is argue it already does in the sectors where BEV vehicles exist), they’ll simply opt for the BEV.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's a really good insight. It looks like Elon surgically targeted his assault on ICE vehicles to the two most effective segments; driving enthusiasts and then truck enthusiasts.
"Common" sense in the auto industry was to target EV sales to environmentalists and frugal customers who don't care about the driving experience.
Elon is not very smart and the large established brands understand their customers much better than a computer geek so it must have been blind luck.
/s
Watching a Spacex launch or the Mars Perseverance landing I am always struck by the young scientist's involved.
It made me wonder....how many people that are negative on Tesla and Elon in particular are old...older that say 50.
I mean if you can't envision a different way of doing things ....you are probably ....old.
Sure a lot of us here are old in years...but I would hope most strive to remain curious about the future and the possibilities people like Musk and company's like Tesla and Spacex are creating.
The Chanos and Speagal's and Bury's and a ton of others are either to afraid to look at possible futures....or more likely to invested in the past to admit that times they are a changing.
But one thing I am very confident is .....Times are changing ..and for the better.
It made me wonder....how many people that are negative on Tesla and Elon in particular are old...older that say 50.
I mean if you can't envision a different way of doing things ....you are probably ....old.
Sure a lot of us here are old in years...but I would hope most strive to remain curious about the future and the possibilities people like Musk and company's like Tesla and Spacex are creating.
The Chanos and Speagal's and Bury's and a ton of others are either to afraid to look at possible futures....or more likely to invested in the past to admit that times they are a changing.
But one thing I am very confident is .....Times are changing ..and for the better.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I don't think there was ever an official recall, that's what I'm asking. I see there was an ID3 recall in January for faulty battery cells, but nothing about this "major software issues" recall. I believe the rumor was from a Danish news outlet? Does it just take a while to actually order the recall?
We all know their software is garbage, but this was a rumored total recall of pretty much all VW ID3/ID4.
To those who missed it. Both Cathie and Barron gave their 2 cents on the bond market.
It was not the rates that caused the market crash but the speed at which the rate increased last week. Barron looking at bonds RSI and believes it's over sold. Both are not anticipating bond yield to significantly increase like last week in the short term.
It was not the rates that caused the market crash but the speed at which the rate increased last week. Barron looking at bonds RSI and believes it's over sold. Both are not anticipating bond yield to significantly increase like last week in the short term.
Car insurance will be disrupted not by EVs, but by Tesla FSD and Tesla Network. I don't remember the timetable you mention, but I do remember Elon targeted 20M autonomous vehicles produced annually by 2030, and said each robotaxi could replace 5 non-autonomous cars (which I think is conservative). If this happens, it will decimate the car insurance industry within 10 years -- the investment horizon of a buy-and-holder like Mr Buffett.
Of course, no one knows what the robotaxi adoption rate will be, but it could be substantial. You and I argued about it before, so I won't repeat my arguments.
Rail freight will be disrupted not only by autonomous Tesla Semi, but also by a shrinking customer base. Trains transport 70% of US coal and ethanol, and 3-11% of US crude oil, according to the Association of American Railroads. That freight has little future, thanks to Tesla.
Quoting Mr Buffett:
Let me tell you about one of BHE's endeavors – its $18 billion commitment to rework and expand a substantial portion of the outdated grid that now transmits electricity throughout the West. BHE began this project in 2006 and expects it to be completed by 2030 – yes, 2030.
The advent of renewable energy made our project a societal necessity. Historically, the coal-based generation of electricity that long prevailed was located close to huge centers of population. The best sites for the new world of wind and solar generation, however, are often in remote areas. When BHE assessed the situation in 2006, it was no secret that a huge investment in western transmission lines had to be made.
The advent of renewable energy made our project a societal necessity. Historically, the coal-based generation of electricity that long prevailed was located close to huge centers of population. The best sites for the new world of wind and solar generation, however, are often in remote areas. When BHE assessed the situation in 2006, it was no secret that a huge investment in western transmission lines had to be made.
Things have changed since 2006. Thanks to Tesla Energy, the best sites for solar generation will be rooftops connected to local batteries and microgrids. Yes, this will take time to scale up, but a lot of scaling should occur by 2030. It will likely disrupt the profits of companies investing billions in long-distance transmission.
I don't assume that, and of course I welcome anyone following Tesla's lead toward sustainable energy. But let's not underestimate Tesla's potential to "take over" more than expected by investors like Mr Buffett. I think they don't have a clue about what's coming from this company.
Have to somewhat disagree with this one: the reality is more complex than the difference of who have and who have not driven one.
Back in ~2008 or 2009, Nissan had a national "tour" event to market its LEAF, we immediately took the opportunity and registered to attend. The demonstration and test drive (actually, just test "ride") were underwhelming, particularly its 100 mile range wasn't that enticing. Several years later, Google Glass came to our area to showcase its product, same impression: underwhelming, but their catered foods and drinks were surely good.
Then came Tesla. I never personally saw (might be occasionally on highway, but never paid any attention), or drive any Tesla, before I was all in $TSLA in late 2016. Also, that was before I "found" this forum. The only thing I did was just read online, and oh, some of them were from Seeking Alpha, but somehow I was never persuaded to go against Tesla.
So my personal experience is that driving/using the product does help, but it's not the deciding factor, that would be how open-minded one would be. Same thing for fuel cell and colonizing Mars: before, I thought hydrogen was a fantastic idea and it took only a few minutes of reading Elon's reason why fuel cells are really fool cells to convert. For Mars, all my impression was that there were too many obstacles to overcome and it's simply not practical, i.e. practically impossible. Even now, I have a load of doubts. But with the astounding achievements of SpaceX, I no longer believe it's impossible, instead, it's quite probable.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Algo-balancing no doubt. I would prefer to be more knowledgeable on global macroeconomics, but from what I can understand from the material out there....there's even more cash flooding into the system shortly. From multiple angles.
Obviously we'll be seeing massive inflows from the $1400+ stimulus checks. Tesla's likely a lock to be the #1 equity destination for that cash. But we're also verging on another massive cash dump into bank coffers from the Fed. I don't entirely understand how this is going to play out, or if these assumptions are double-dipping the impact of stimulus checks, but either way it's a LOT more liquidity into an already saturated global economy. Short term bond yields will probably go to zero, overflow into longer term notes, and we'll see the 10-year right back at .5% before long.
Then all this action unwinds and we're back looking for top future-leaning equities as the best long term return by far. If this downward TSLA action keeps going another week or two, we may see a very nice LEAP buying opportunity.
A month ago I was getting the feeling my 2023 sold calls @ $1300 might eventually execute, and I'm fairly certain of it now that vaccination is going so well AND stimulus is passing. We're moving out of lockdown and a "tsunami of cash" is about to land on these markets. Lets hope GME goes to $420 tomorrow so I can buy back some of these calls before the wave hits.
Algo-balancing no doubt. I would prefer to be more knowledgeable on global macroeconomics, but from what I can understand from the material out there....there's even more cash flooding into the system shortly. From multiple angles.
Obviously we'll be seeing massive inflows from the $1400+ stimulus checks. Tesla's likely a lock to be the #1 equity destination for that cash. But we're also verging on another massive cash dump into bank coffers from the Fed. I don't entirely understand how this is going to play out, or if these assumptions are double-dipping the impact of stimulus checks, but either way it's a LOT more liquidity into an already saturated global economy. Short term bond yields will probably go to zero, overflow into longer term notes, and we'll see the 10-year right back at .5% before long.
Then all this action unwinds and we're back looking for top future-leaning equities as the best long term return by far. If this downward TSLA action keeps going another week or two, we may see a very nice LEAP buying opportunity.
A month ago I was getting the feeling my 2023 sold calls @ $1300 might eventually execute, and I'm fairly certain of it now that vaccination is going so well AND stimulus is passing. We're moving out of lockdown and a "tsunami of cash" is about to land on these markets. Lets hope GME goes to $420 tomorrow so I can buy back some of these calls before the wave hits.
I bought a bunch of 810, 850, and a few 900 March 2022 calls. I've been buying lower calls as the stock has dropped. If it drops into the mid-low 600's this upcoming week, I'll pick up some 750 March 2022 calls.
The inflation thing is all noise. The fundamental flaw in the theory that future rate increases will affect Tesla as a growth company is flawed because they're projecting rates 4 years out based on what the rate is doing today. Tesla is not 4 years out from high profits...more like 1-2 years.
I continue to think that FSD wide release and subscription model will release at the same time and propel Tesla's valuation in the software company realm of valuations. As long as FSD wide release/Sub model are released by Q4 of this year, I feel very confident in my Call's paying off very nicely. I say Q4 because as long as it releases in Q4, we'll get to see the direct impact of FSD revenue recognition and an early peek into how subscription model will impact earnings when Q4 earnings are released in Jan 2022.....I'm hoping the release happens by Q3.....If it happens by Q2 I'll be ecstatic.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
It has taken some time, but Adam Jonas really has come around. I applaud him for his ability to put ego aside when the facts paint a clear picture. If only some of the more vocal (bear) analysts had that quality in their wheelhouse.
I believe this is the right call because it's the only call.
There's a global battery shortage. Toyota can make 5 plugins using the resource of 1 battery pack of a BEV. This is important as they are a VOLUME mover. Any cars under the Toyota brand that's over 40k is dead on arrival. Their bread and butter has to be at a reasonable price therefore cannot afford to go into fully BEVs unlike the Germans who sell their cars at a higher price to off set the cost of the drive train/software development.
Based on EV penalties, the only cars that can get a pass today other than full BEVs are hybrids to dodge the penalties. So it's best to offset as much as possible when you can utilize the limited amount of batteries available, therefore this is why so many brands are dead set on going hybrids/plug ins because it's the ONLY strategy right now until batteries are falling out of the sky.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Or they can take some of that $37B in Cash they have and build a GF in USA, Japan, and China.
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