Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

exported coal- something that's likely to remain a thing for a while yet as not every country is gonna have a next-gen transition as far as every other.

The economics of solar v coal doesn't significantly vary that much by location and country.

Many colder climates with reduced solar, have good wind resources, including off-shore wind.

Political corruption is the only reason why investment decisions don't always follow a path of pure economics.

Many developing countries, don't have a grid, can't afford a grid, and don't need a grid, with no grid, solar is a much easier path.

People in developing countries are smarter and better informed, than many give them credit for.

The numbers on Robotaxi's and EVs are similar, EV Robotaxis are a stellar option for developing countries, where there is often more community spirit, less fuss about possessions and personal space, and more willingness to share.

We are currently successfully dumping excess 2nd hand ICE vehicles in developing countries, but people in these countries are smart enough to take the better option when given a choice.

The transition to clean energy and transport will do a lot to make lives better in developing countries, microloans based on blockchain, and internet connectivity will also do a lot. The opportunity is big for them, because they have a lot to gain, and nothing to lose.

 

[RobStark]

Yes, when Tesla was making about 1 week of Toyotas production in a year. Now they have obviously out grew their partnerships hence battery day. The current supply chain and battery production expertise does not support Toyota's production capacity. So the only choice is to partner up with Tesla.

Toyota can most certainly partner with Panasonic and Sumitomo to make GFs.

Toyota doesn't need Tesla to get Sumitomo to increase production at their mines or open new mines.

Toyota doesn't need Tesla to get Panasonic producing 10s or even 100s of GWh of battery cells.

Tesla has chosen to go out on its own. Toyota can't. As you say they don't have the expertise.

GM will be opening up a GF in Ohio with LG to produce 30 GWh per year with option to double size of factory.

If GM could do it Toyota certainly can.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 January 2021

 

[mickle]

Rail freight will be disrupted not only by autonomous Tesla Semi, but also by a shrinking customer base. Trains transport 70% of US coal and ethanol, and 3-11% of US crude oil, according to the Association of American Railroads. That freight has little future, thanks to Tesla.

I'll also have to disagree with this. If you think rail traffic is going to shrink you probably haven't seen one of these:

 

[sdtslafan]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 January 2021

So 33K/ month, about 400K annualized run rate.

Seems not so good, right? Didn't they end last year at a 60K/month run rate? What am I missing?

 

[MC3OZ]

Toyota can most certainly partner with Panasonic and Sumitomo to make GFs.

Toyota doesn't need Tesla to get Sumitomo to increase production at their mines or open new mines.

Toyota doesn't need Tesla to get Panasonic producing 10s or even 100s of GWh of battery cells.

Tesla has chosen to go out on its own. Toyota can't. As you say they don't have the expertise.

GM will be opening up a GF in Ohio with LG to produce 30 GWh per year with option to double size of factory.

If GM could do it Toyota certainly can.

Tesla is making their own batteries mainly to de-risk and better sync vehicle production ramp ups.

During "production hell" Tesla was probably holding up Panasonic, after that, Panasonic was probably moving a bit too slow for Tesla.

All battery companies will feel happier ramping production on their own turf, including Panasonic in Japan.
Panasonic may also fell slightly happing about making major investments to sync with Toyota plans, especially when those plans are backed by the Japanese government.

Apart from perhaps VW, most other car companies are not currently ramping EV production as aggressively as Tesla. When Toyota decides to do that, the risk for Panasonic is very low, Toyota and Tesla will take all the cells they can make.

 

[RobStark]

So 33K/ month, about 400K annualized run rate.

Seems not so good, right? Didn't they end last year at a 60K/month run rate? What am I missing?

The stock of Tesla is exhausted. They sold everything not bolted down in December.

They will now refill stock. Like they do every January and February.

S/X are on boats to China and Europe.

Model 3 on boats to Europe.

Model 3/Y on Semis to delivery throughout the country.

Ditto MiC Model 3/Y throughout China.

 

[FireMedic]

4/5 of BEV’s sold in US last year were TESLAS

 

[Pras]

4/5 of BEV’s sold in US last year were TESLAS


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Imagine the effect when tesla Berlin starts producing and there is price parity. Tesla possibly can have similar market share in EV focused Europe.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Starlink mission scheduled for liftoff in 50 min (8:37 pm EST)

EDIT: Launch scrubbed at approx. T-1m24s

 

[JustMe]

Imagine the effect when tesla Berlin starts producing and there is price parity. Tesla possibly can have similar market share in EV focused Europe.

Imagine global sales of the future $25k Tesla.
*giggity!*

 

[Singuy]

So 33K/ month, about 400K annualized run rate.

Seems not so good, right? Didn't they end last year at a 60K/month run rate? What am I missing?

The entire sales in the US is what you are missing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is not headquartered in New York.

Fair enough, but all the equities traded on those indexes are traded either on the NYSE or the NASDAQ. So keeping it simple for non-Americans...

Cheers!

P.S. BTW, 4 days ago the "Wealth UP" channel was asking if there will be a diesel CT

Some click-hounds that publish daily nonsence should actually be called out, IMO.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The entire sales in the US is what you are missing.

This.

The important takeaway is these numbers are near triple yoy

 

[sdtslafan]

The entire sales in the US is what you are missing.

Oh right, ok good, now that you've pointed out that minor oversight I am SUPER BULLISH!

What would I do without you guys...

 

[st_lopes]

Congrats!

Just curious, for someone living in the United States, and who is aware that it is likely a new EV tax credit of ~$7k is likely in the very near future - why wouldn't you wait 1-2 months to get that potential savings?

He’s in Canada. Our incentive/credit system is only available on the lowest trim 3 and Y, which if you live in any part of Canada with real winter, you want AWD and Long Range.

 

[StealthP3D]

I believe this is the right call because it's the only call.

There's a global battery shortage. Toyota can make 5 plugins using the resource of 1 battery pack of a BEV. This is important as they are a VOLUME mover. Any cars under the Toyota brand that's over 40k is dead on arrival. Their bread and butter has to be at a reasonable price therefore cannot afford to go into fully BEVs unlike the Germans who sell their cars at a higher price to off set the cost of the drive train/software development.

Based on EV penalties, the only cars that can get a pass today other than full BEVs are hybrids to dodge the penalties. So it's best to offset as much as possible when you can utilize the limited amount of batteries available, therefore this is why so many brands are dead set on going hybrids/plug ins because it's the ONLY strategy right now until batteries are falling out of the sky.

Batteries won't be "falling out of the sky" in our lifetimes but there will be huge profits for those who can scale production of raw materials and finished products more quickly than the rest. The people who scoop those profits up will be the people who have enough vision to see how big the actual demand will be and invest the money now. You can bet this won't be Ford or GM.

We put humans on the moon in less than a decade by setting a big goal and commiting the resources to it. The world is awash with investment capital for electrification as evidenced by the share prices of any company with "EV" in the description. Throwing our hands up in the air and saying "I guess we will have to build hybrids because there won't be enough batteries in 2030" is a self-fulfilling prophecy and a real cop out.

Hybrids are barely better than efficient ICE cars and the development time for a new car model is just as long as the time to get a new mine operational.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'll also have to disagree with this. If you think rail traffic is going to shrink you probably haven't seen one of these:


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I don't know the rail world, but I believe the real money is in coal transport. That's essentially a monopoly since you can't move a mine or put coal on a truck. I bet a huge chunk of margins is coal transport.

 

[StealthP3D]

Somethings you can't just throw money at and expect it to succeed. Intel wish they can build a fab like TSMC's but they can't...even with all the money in the world. Believe me, they have tried, and poured in 10s of billions.

Mining raw materials and building new battery manufacturing lines based on current technology is not comparable to the competion currently underway to build ever smaller and faster chips with lower power consumption while running up against the size limits of the very molecular structure while maintaining yields and reliability.

Mining and the current battery manufacturing technology is well understood and doesn't require new breakthroughs or understanding to be viable. It's simply a matter of ramping now appropriate to the demand in 6 years.

Building millions of new hybrids doesn't get us closer to that goal and actually lessens demand for future EV's.

 

[FireMedic]

NASDAQ futures are up 1.13%

Unrelared; unfortunately falcon 9 is an abort; likely for a technical issue. Try again tomorrow is the assumption.

SN10 pushed back until March 3 at the earliest.