Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 640731 My part for next quarter.

went in store to order a SR 7 seater Model Y. They told me it was discontinued.

pulled the trigger for a LR AWD 7 seater. Forget the 13,000$ incentives, YOLO.

Congrats!

Just curious, for someone living in the United States, and who is aware that it is likely a new EV tax credit of ~$7k is likely in the very near future - why wouldn't you wait 1-2 months to get that potential savings?

 

[Singuy]

Or they can take some of that $37B in Cash they have and build a GF in USA, Japan, and China.

They are not an expertise at this nor have they thought about the raw material problem. Tesla's battery day is talking about a major step change in production capacity, which does not scale with current supply chain at all. So unless Toyota pulls a Nikola and talks about all the Stanford graduates they have working on every aspect of how to tackle this problem, they will just play it safe and do what's necessary to stay afloat while banking on the supply chain may work itself out in the future using Tesla's or someone else's IP.

Somethings you can't just throw money at and expect it to succeed. Intel wish they can build a fab like TSMC's but they can't...even with all the money in the world. Believe me, they have tried, and poured in 10s of billions.

 

[AimStellar]

Congrats!

Just curious, for someone living in the United States, and who is aware that it is likely a new EV tax credit of ~$7k is likely in the very near future - why wouldn't you wait 1-2 months to get that potential savings?

Hint: The words on his screen are in French.

 

[wipster]

View attachment 640620

Did my part for some eventual quarter this year

Well done mate!

 

[Knightshade]

Car insurance will be disrupted not by EVs, but by Tesla FSD and Tesla Network. I don't remember the timetable you mention, but I do remember Elon targeted 20M autonomous vehicles produced annually by 2030

Ok, but the global vehicle fleet is like 1.4 billion with a b

20 million is roughly 1/4 of one years sales.

, and said each robotaxi could replace 5 non-autonomous cars (which I think is conservative).

And I think is grossly optimistic.

Also I'm not sure he actually said that? Do you have a quote?

Nearest I can find is that he said they'd offer a 5x increase in utility, because they'd be operating say 60 hours a week instead of the 12 a nr

This means they would be used for around 60 hours a week, rather than 12, he said, which is "roughly a five times increase in utility."

But of course that's not the same as replacing 5 actual cars- sometimes they'll be sitting waiting for a hail. Sometimes they'll be driving TO a hail. Sometimes they'll be charging. And some fair chunk of the hours they are carrying passengers are hours not replacing a regular car at all, but replacing the hours a normal taxi or uber with a driver was providing.


Source for the 5x utility thing here:
Elon Musk says self-driving Tesla robotaxis can help justify the company's $800 billion valuation


Personally- once there's enough in service, I expect it'll replace a LOT of 2nd or 3rd cars.

And a relatively small number of primary cars.

People really like owning a car.

Even in NYC where owning a car makes basically 0 sense TODAY the ownership rate is shockingly high.



Plus it relies on something being ready that Elon has promised is about to be ready since at least 2017- but that's a whole other topic.

If this happens, it will decimate the car insurance industry within 10 years -- the investment horizon of a buy-and-holder like Mr Buffett.

You seem to have skipped over that most of BHs insurance companies are things other than car insurance- all in areas Tesla has expressed no interest.

Of course, no one knows what the robotaxi adoption rate will be, but it could be substantial. You and I argued about it before, so I won't repeat my arguments.

Seems like you just did?

Rail freight will be disrupted not only by autonomous Tesla Semi, but also by a shrinking customer base. Trains transport 70% of US coal and ethanol, and 3-11% of US crude oil, according to the Association of American Railroads. That freight has little future, thanks to Tesla.

From what I'm finding U.S. freight railroads logged 542,203 carloads and intermodal units for the week ending Dec. 5, 2020 for example.

Coal is about 12% of that volume. Notable but not THAT massive.

Presumably some of that will be made up transporting OTHER things in an alt-energy economy like solar panels, large battery packs, and hardware for hydro, wind, geo, etc... and also with... exported coal- something that's likely to remain a thing for a while yet as not every country is gonna have a next-gen transition as far as every other.

Petroleum is an almost insignificant amount of their shipments (roughly 2%- and we're still gonna need plastic and petrol-based lubricants and such in the EV future).

Quoting Mr Buffett:

Let me tell you about one of BHE's endeavors – its $18 billion commitment to rework and expand a substantial portion of the outdated grid that now transmits electricity throughout the West. BHE began this project in 2006 and expects it to be completed by 2030 – yes, 2030.

The advent of renewable energy made our project a societal necessity. Historically, the coal-based generation of electricity that long prevailed was located close to huge centers of population. The best sites for the new world of wind and solar generation, however, are often in remote areas. When BHE assessed the situation in 2006, it was no secret that a huge investment in western transmission lines had to be made.​

That kinda reinforces my point. They've been actively working toward renewable transition stuff for a long time. Even 5 years ago 1/3rd of their total GENERATION of power was already renewables.

​

Things have changed since 2006. Thanks to Tesla Energy, the best sites for solar generation will be rooftops connected to local batteries and microgrids. Yes, this will take time to scale up, but a lot of scaling should occur by 2030. It will likely disrupt the profits of companies investing billions in long-distance transmission.

I don't see solar rooftops and microgrids being the primary form of power in a lot of densely populated areas which are potentially terrible for it and likely can't locally produce enough to meet needs.

Doubly so for dense low income areas.

And some power will continue to be wind, geothermal, nuclear, and hydro- plus large scale solar- which will need transmission as well.

Tesla has told us they'll still not have all the batteries they want for cars by 2030- I think a lot of decently well-off folks will have solar roofs and powerwalls by 2030... I expect they'd still be well in the minority of homes though... (there'll also be a lot more megapack type storage deployed- and it's one of the places BHE might well be buying from Tesla.).


Certainly SOME energy companies will be slower than others to consider the future and move toward it... but from my reading BHEs less likely to be one of those compared to many others.

To paraphrase the old bear joke- they don't need to be faster than Tesla- they just need to faster than a decent % of other companies. And in both rail and energy that appears to be true.

I don't assume that, and of course I welcome anyone following Tesla's lead toward sustainable energy. But let's not underestimate Tesla's potential to "take over" more than expected by investors like Mr Buffett. I think they don't have a clue about what's coming from this company.

Worth noting from your own quote- they began their 18 billion dollar push toward transmission of renewables in 2006.

2 years before Tesla delivered their first production car.

Likewise their rail company was making moves toward planning for electrification to eventually replace DE locomotives within about a year of the first Roadster being delivered.

Buffett is certainly conservative. But he (and the people he has directly running these companies) are not idiots- and they're not ignorant of what direction their own industries are heading.


In fact- the change might be good for them if for example their rail systems are years ahead on electrification compared to Union Pacific (and that appears to be exactly the case).

Because even if TOTAL rail volume shrank some, THEIR volume might well increase as they're able to offer lower cost BEV train freight versus UP still charging diesel powered rates.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Things have changed since 2006. Thanks to Tesla Energy, the best sites for solar generation will be rooftops connected to local batteries and microgrids. Yes, this will take time to scale up, but a lot of scaling should occur by 2030. It will likely disrupt the profits of companies investing billions in long-distance transmission.

Yet another situation where the entire world is stuck in today's dynamic and can't fathom the impact Tesla will have in a few short years. Ubiquitous storage, big and small, means we're done with just-in-time transmission. They simply cannot wrap their heads around that.

If electricity lines were plumbing, even with the addition of an entire EV fleet, you could actually get away with LOWER gague pipes. 24/7 shifting/optimizing of supply balance, and absorbing of peak supply makes far more difference than anyone's imagining. It's not really denial, it's just too big of a change to account for without seeing it.

 

[kbM3]

Ok, but the global vehicle fleet is like 1.4 billion with a b

20 million is roughly 1/4 of one years sales.




And I think is grossly optimistic.

Also I'm not sure he actually said that? Do you have a quote?

Nearest I can find is that he said they'd offer a 5x increase in utility, because they'd be operating say 60 hours a week instead of the 12 a nr

This means they would be used for around 60 hours a week, rather than 12, he said, which is "roughly a five times increase in utility."

But of course that's not the same as replacing 5 actual cars- sometimes they'll be sitting waiting for a hail. Sometimes they'll be driving TO a hail. Sometimes they'll be charging. And some fair chunk of the hours they are carrying passengers are hours not replacing a regular car at all, but replacing the hours a normal taxi or uber with a driver was providing.


Source for the 5x utility thing here:
Elon Musk says self-driving Tesla robotaxis can help justify the company's $800 billion valuation


Personally- once there's enough in service, I expect it'll replace a LOT of 2nd or 3rd cars.

And a relatively small number of primary cars.

People really like owning a car.

Even in NYC where owning a car makes basically 0 sense TODAY the ownership rate is shockingly high.



Plus it relies on something being ready that Elon has promised is about to be ready since at least 2017- but that's a whole other topic.






You seem to have skipped over that most of BHs insurance companies are things other than car insurance- all in areas Tesla has expressed no interest.




Seems like you just did?





From what I'm finding U.S. freight railroads logged 542,203 carloads and intermodal units for the week ending Dec. 5, 2020 for example.

Coal is about 12% of that volume. Notable but not THAT massive.

Presumably some of that will be made up transporting OTHER things in an alt-energy economy like solar panels, large battery packs, and hardware for hydro, wind, geo, etc... and also with... exported coal- something that's likely to remain a thing for a while yet as not every country is gonna have a next-gen transition as far as every other.

Petroleum is an almost insignificant amount of their shipments (roughly 2%- and we're still gonna need plastic and petrol-based lubricants and such in the EV future).

That kinda reinforces my point. They've been actively working toward renewable transition stuff for a long time. Even 5 years ago 1/3rd of their total GENERATION of power was already renewables.

​

I don't see solar rooftops and microgrids being the primary form of power in a lot of densely populated areas which are potentially terrible for it and likely can't locally produce enough to meet needs.

Doubly so for dense low income areas.

And some power will continue to be wind, geothermal, nuclear, and hydro- plus large scale solar- which will need transmission as well.

Tesla has told us they'll still not have all the batteries they want for cars by 2030- I think a lot of decently well-off folks will have solar roofs and powerwalls by 2030... I expect they'd still be well in the minority of homes though... (there'll also be a lot more megapack type storage deployed- and it's one of the places BHE might well be buying from Tesla.).


Certainly SOME energy companies will be slower than others to consider the future and move toward it... but from my reading BHEs less likely to be one of those compared to many others.

To paraphrase the old bear joke- they don't need to be faster than Tesla- they just need to faster than a decent % of other companies. And in both rail and energy that appears to be true.





Worth noting from your own quote- they began their 18 billion dollar push toward transmission of renewables in 2006.

2 years before Tesla delivered their first production car.

Likewise their rail company was making moves toward planning for electrification to eventually replace DE locomotives within about a year of the first Roadster being delivered.

Buffett is certainly conservative. But he (and the people he has directly running these companies) are not idiots- and they're not ignorant of what direction their own industries are heading.


In fact- the change might be good for them if for example their rail systems are years ahead on electrification compared to Union Pacific (and that appears to be exactly the case).

Because even if TOTAL rail volume shrank some, THEIR volume might well increase as they're able to offer lower cost BEV train freight versus UP still charging diesel powered rates.

‘Elon’s 5X numbers already include empty miles. He assumed each robotaxi at 90k miles / year, only 1/2 of which were for fares and useful.

 

[RobStark]

They are not an expertise at this nor have they thought about the raw material problem. Tesla's battery day is talking about a major step change in production capacity, which does not scale with current supply chain at all. So unless Toyota pulls a Nikola and talks about all the Stanford graduates they have working on every aspect of how to tackle this problem, they will just play it safe and do what's necessary to stay afloat while banking on the supply chain may work itself out in the future using Tesla's or someone else's IP.

Somethings you can't just throw money at and expect it to succeed. Intel wish they can build a fab like TSMC's but they can't...even with all the money in the world. Believe me, they have tried, and poured in 10s of billions.

Panasonic and Sumitomo have gladly partnered with Tesla.

Why wouldn't they also with Toyota? They have existing partnerships. All it requires is their expansion.

It is nothing less than ignorance and/or a fear to try.

That is not how to run Japan's most prestigious corporation.

Edit Toyota isn't gaining expertise by delaying. They are just getting further behind. You gain knowledge by doing. Their expertise in hybrids will be useless in 10-20 years. And their expertise in fuel cell passenger cars will be less than useless.

 

[Christine69420]

Source: https://twitter.com/bentv_sh/status/1366021054578130947

Text: On February 28, Tesla China's operating entity Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has undergone industrial and commercial changes, the scope of business added new energy vehicle power
exchange facilities sales, etc.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Congrats!

Just curious, for someone living in the United States, and who is aware that it is likely a new EV tax credit of ~$7k is likely in the very near future - why wouldn't you wait 1-2 months to get that potential savings?

Montreal isn't the United States. Reaffirmed in 1812.

 

[jerry33]

Panasonic and Sumitomo have gladly partnered with Tesla.

Why wouldn't they also with Toyota?

I'd suggest that it's mainly because Toyota has approximately as many layers of bureaucracy as there are stars in the sky.

 

[dhrivnak]

Car insurance will be disrupted not by EVs, but by Tesla FSD and Tesla Network. I don't remember the timetable you mention, but I do remember Elon targeted 20M autonomous vehicles produced annually by 2030, and said each robotaxi could replace 5 non-autonomous cars (which I think is conservative). If this happens, it will decimate the car insurance industry within 10 years -- the investment horizon of a buy-and-holder like Mr Buffett.

Sorry not sure I agree as my driving, or even my wife's driving is far superior to the current FSD. She has yet to brake check me just because of a shadow on the road. Or because someone may merge behind me.

 

[MABMAB]

I get the message. Bye, bye TMC.

The grown up thing to do is for everyone to put on their boxing gloves and go on Curt Renz's show.

 

[lafrisbee]

First. I wanna see the MS Plaid drag racing videos. I don't give an ant turd about some silly yoke.
And on that note I have figured out why so few on here have gotten covid...We have anty bodies.

 

[lafrisbee]

BRING ON THE PLAID MODEL S's RACING VIDEOS...
You better hurry cuz when the Plaid + comes....

 

[MXWing]

Congrats!

Just curious, for someone living in the United States, and who is aware that it is likely a new EV tax credit of ~$7k is likely in the very near future - why wouldn't you wait 1-2 months to get that potential savings?

It's customary for tax credits passed anytime in the year to be retroactive to the beginning of the year.

In fact, I'm thinking of spending $100 on a call option on an off menu SR Model Y and seeing if I can get that price with 7K credit for 2021.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros are up slightly in early action on the Futures Market in New York:

DOW30 Mar 21 +76.50 +0.25% 18:11:01
S&P500 Mar 21 +14.87 +0.39% 18:11:01
NDQ100 Mar 21 +71.12 +0.55% 18:11:01​

Cheers!

 

[EVWatcher]

Macros are up slightly in early action on the Futures Market in New York:

DOW30 Mar 21 +76.50 +0.25% 18:11:01
S&P500 Mar 21 +14.87 +0.39% 18:11:01
NDQ100 Mar 21 +71.12 +0.55% 18:11:01​

Cheers!

Its been a long weekend waiting to see this lol

 

[Curt Renz]

Macros are up slightly in early action on the Futures Market in New York:

DOW30 Mar 21 +76.50 +0.25% 18:11:01
S&P500 Mar 21 +14.87 +0.39% 18:11:01
NDQ100 Mar 21 +71.12 +0.55% 18:11:01​

Cheers!

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is not headquartered in New York.

 

[Singuy]

Panasonic and Sumitomo have gladly partnered with Tesla.

Why wouldn't they also with Toyota? They have existing partnerships. All it requires is their expansion.

It is nothing less than ignorance and/or a fear to try.

That is not how to run Japan's most prestigious corporation.

Edit Toyota isn't gaining expertise by delaying. They are just getting further behind. You gain knowledge by doing. Their expertise in hybrids will be useless in 10-20 years. And their expertise in fuel cell passenger cars will be less than useless.

Yes, when Tesla was making about 1 week of Toyotas production in a year. Now they have obviously out grew their partnerships hence battery day. The current supply chain and battery production expertise does not support Toyota's production capacity. So the only choice is to partner up with Tesla.