Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

Gensler SEC nomination hearing:

They've gone into ESG

 

[asburgers]

Gensler SEC nomination hearing:

They've gone into ESG

As an aside, I am watching Gensler's MIT Crypto lectures on MIT Opencourseware. He's a really good prof.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My guess is the defense mode people are in is due to unprecedented retail participation. The famous rule of thumb is to get out when the shoe shiner is giving out stock tips. Gme amplified this which kind of made a mockery out of the market and valuation. I think that's the initial catalyst for current bearish sentiment.

Not to wander too far OT, but you started it! Show me a stock analysis that was more accurate than the GME Reddit work(that we should be discussing here)? The founder of Interactive Brokers was just on Bloomberg saying they were 100% correct in their analysis and peak returns should have ballooned from 2,300% to something like 11,700% if the markets had operated rationally. In what world is that bad investing? Selling right now nets a mid-January investor 700%+.

As far as the media is concerned we were those idiots 5 years, some would argue we still are today. And perhaps that's the root of this TMC ambivalence toward any GME trader, we don't want to be associated with this riff raff for fear of comparisons. TMC never had self esteem issues back in the day!

My only posting style from here on out will be old man rants. (I'm not even 45 yet....this is bad)

 

[YAWD]

I really hope FSD subscription doesn't come as xx USD per month but as xx cent per mile.

Yes. A 10c/mile FSD rate that includes NoA and Navigate on city streets would be super cool and much better deal than $100 or $200/month. 10c/mile is $10,000 for 100,000 miles. Therefore buying FSD outright is a much better deal long term because you can use it all the time and it increases re-sale value of the car. A Tesla will last well over 100,000 miles therefore FSD software should not be depreciated over 100K miles or 6-7 years but more like over 300-400K miles. However, I doubt that Smart summon would be part of the package if the subscription is based on miles driven

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - this morning: Exclusive: India woos Tesla with offer of cheaper production costs than China

Excerpt:

“Rather than assembling (the cars) in India they should make the entire product in the country by hiring local vendors. Then we can give higher concessions,” Gadkari said in an interview, without giving details of what incentives would be on offer.

“The government will make sure the production cost for Tesla will be the lowest when compared with the world, even China, when they start manufacturing their cars in India. We will assure that,” he said.

 

[kanweg]

I am not entirely convinced that there will be high inflation without full employment and with government commitment to control inflation. Still researching this.

I think it will be the case. All those financially emaciated restaurant owners, hair dressers and other that had to close shop will raise their prices when they can open again. People will pay, because finally they can get their hair done and finally they can eat out again. Things being more expensive makes that the money is worth less, i.e. inflation.

 

[BornToFly]

I'm confused. Wouldn't you sell covered calls nearer a top rather than what looks like the end of a 20% correction?

Are we in a 20% correction now, or were we in a 20% overshoot two weeks ago? I am far more worried about my 640 strike Puts than my 850 covered calls right now.... I think we are far more likely to be below 750 in two weeks time, than above it. I do hope that as we get closer to Q1 delivery numbers in the beginning of April that investors pile back in and drive the SP back closer to 850 in the second half of the month.

 

[asburgers]

I think it will be the case. All those financially emaciated restaurant owners, hair dressers and other that had to close shop will raise their prices when they can open again. People will pay, because finally they can get their hair done and finally they can eat out again. Things being more expensive makes that the money is worth less, i.e. inflation.

Agree with inflation, but cautiously disagreeing with the hyper inflation narrative. I still believe that you need low-middle class income to come back online, and the government to not intervene, to back up price increases. That will move CPI...which is a proxy for inflation...but not really.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla related: Aston Martin, Honda & Bosch got together to issue a nonsense PR 'report' that was widely reported in nonsense media (ie most of it). It attempted to slow EV adoption & create FUD against Tesla & other EVs. All made up.

Aston Martin in row over 'sock puppet PR firm' pushing anti-electric vehicle study

Spoiler: Detail

"The study, which has since been widely debunked by experts, was presented as “groundbreaking” third-party research and appeared to show that electric cars would have to travel as far as 50,000 miles before matching the carbon footprint of a petrol model.

Thursday’s report was commissioned by companies including Aston Martin, Bosch, Honda and McLaren shortly after the UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, called for a ban on the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles from 2030, and presented as the work of Clarendon Communications.

But it can be revealed that the same companies that were credited with commissioning the study collaborated to write the report themselves, and the communications firm is a company registered under the name of Rebecca Stephens, who is the wife of Aston Martin’s government affairs director, James Stephens. The company was set up in February and registered to the address of a property jointly owned by the married couple.

Spoiler: Detail

It was released by a PR firm owned by Aston Martin's PR Director's wife (who is actually a nurse) registered at their domestic address.

A lot of funding for this report came from Bosch - who are pushing eFuels - synthetic replacements for petrol & diesel. Very inefficient but seen as a hope (especially for legacy ICE in Germany) & will probably get lots of government support - sucking it away from EVs & more FUD will result.

Aston Martin: The billionaire building 'a British Ferrari'

"Electric and hybrid technology, he explains, can simply be brought in from the German firm Mercedes-Benz.

The two companies have a technical partnership, while Mercedes' parent company Daimler also has a 20% stake in Aston Martin."

https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/1346024274302300160

View attachment 641286
View attachment 641287

Just to show how out of touch Aston Martin is & why they might have joined in / started some of the Tesla/EV FUD with Bosch & Honda...

My guess is that new "Executive Chairman" sees Aston Martin as a brand, perhaps clothing? They are also buying/renting a Formula 1 team. The end result of this is another supercar brand that can't beat Tesla, a lot of wasted money (ICE F1 instead of EV). There's a Mercedes tie-in as well. Absolutely no interest in building a superior (EV) car or leading technology. Can you imagine a Model S Plaid Plus (4680) vs Aston Martin (old, heavy cell tech) at the track? It will be humiliating for Aston.

Spoiler: Detail

Aston Martin: The billionaire building 'a British Ferrari'

"Meanwhile electrification, he says, should not be a problem for the sportscar business.

"The most important thing for any company, as far as I'm concerned, is its brand. We have the greatest iconic brand in Aston Martin," he says.

Electric and hybrid technology, he explains, can simply be brought in from the German firm Mercedes-Benz.

The two companies have a technical partnership, while Mercedes' parent company Daimler also has a 20% stake in Aston Martin."

 

[asburgers]

"The most important thing for any company, as far as I'm concerned, is its brand. We have the greatest iconic brand in Aston Martin," he says.

Hubris

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 1.5 hours ago: What To Know About Dave Portnoy And The New BUZZ Social Media Sentiment ETF

Excerpt:

...What Happened: The VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF NYSEBUZZ is set to launch on March 4. Barstool Sports Founder Dave Portnoy shared the news Tuesday with a video press conference on Twitter.

The ETF will use artificial intelligence to track social buzz on the top 75 large-cap stocks each month. The fund will hold stocks with market capitalizations of over $5 billion...

Top Holdings: The BUZZ Index has a list of holdings on its website. Here is a look at the current top holdings in the index:

• Twitter Inc TWTR 3.17%: 3.5%
• DraftKings Inc DKNG 0.55%: 3.4%
• Ford Motor Company F 3.3%: 3.1%
• Facebook Inc FB 0.37%: 3.0%
• Amazon.com AMZN 0.4%: 2.9%
• Apple Inc AAPL 1.27%: 2.9%
• Advanced Micro Devices AMD 1.27%: 2.9%
• American Airlines Group AAL 0.68%: 2.8%
• Netflix Inc NFLX 0.01%: 2.8%
• Tesla Inc TSLA 2.16%: 2.8%

 

[asburgers]

Is Dave Portnoy the proverbial shoe shine boy?

 

[kbM3]

Not sure how Tesla will proceed. Charging $10,000 or $200 a month leaves a ton of money on the table from people like me who would definitely not buy it. I am very interested in FSD but the most I would pay is $7000 or $100 a month.

to me the answer is obvious, FSD needs to be separated into two products, one personal, one commercial. The commercial addition is actually going to be worth way more than $10,000, possibly as much as $50,000. The personal edition will drive you all day long , park itself etc. it will not drive unattended and pick up your mom from the airport.

I just rewatched Autonomy Day.
1) FSD complete makes the present value $200k for a Tesla suitable for Robotaxi service.
2) It will be over 10 years before robotaxi demand is filled.

‘Ergo in your example Tesla would have a near unlimited demand for selling commercial $50k licenses. They would therefore have no incentive to sell $10k consumer licenses.

Commercial vehicles advance the mission in 2 ways:
1) More cash enables faster factory buildout.
2) Each commercial vehicle displaces up to 4 ICE vehicles, whereas each personal vehicle only displaces one.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Aston Martin: The billionaire building 'a British Ferrari'

How to become a millionaire in the sports car industry.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Benzinga - 1.5 hours ago: What To Know About Dave Portnoy And The New BUZZ Social Media Sentiment ETF

Excerpt:

...What Happened: The VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF NYSEBUZZ is set to launch on March 4. Barstool Sports Founder Dave Portnoy shared the news Tuesday with a video press conference on Twitter.

The ETF will use artificial intelligence to track social buzz on the top 75 large-cap stocks each month. The fund will hold stocks with market capitalizations of over $5 billion...

The index behind the ETF will use artificial intelligence to monitor over 15 million online posts a month. A basket of 75 stocks will be ranked each month using the algorithm...

Top Holdings: The BUZZ Index has a list of holdings on its website. Here is a look at the current top holdings in the index:

• Twitter Inc TWTR 3.17%: 3.5%
• DraftKings Inc DKNG 0.55%: 3.4%
• Ford Motor Company F 3.3%: 3.1%
• Facebook Inc FB 0.37%: 3.0%
• Amazon.com AMZN 0.4%: 2.9%
• Apple Inc AAPL 1.27%: 2.9%
• Advanced Micro Devices AMD 1.27%: 2.9%
• American Airlines Group AAL 0.68%: 2.8%
• Netflix Inc NFLX 0.01%: 2.8%
• Tesla Inc TSLA 2.16%: 2.8%

So the more TslaQ mention Tesla, the more some funds will buy?

 

[StealthP3D]

It roasts my brain that all arguments circulate back to buy moar TSLA. The counterpoint is that with a hipster coffee shop, I can finally pay some min wage kids to hang out and laugh at my dad jokes - TSLA does not offer that.

?? Why do you think a TSLA long can't afford min wage sycophants just as easily as a coffee shop owner?

In fact, I've found they are much more responsive when you don't make them deal with the general public. For example, my foot masseuse and shoulder masseuse (both self-trained, btw) are both still giggling uncontrollably. All I did was read your message to them, shake my head and add "Asburger must have aspergers."

I'm not even sure they got the joke but they know who signs their checks! Of course they laugh at my wife's jokes too.

/s

 

[canoemore]

Why no go up?

 

[Ipe]

Why no go up?

When crash
Much buy

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Reuters - this morning: Exclusive: India woos Tesla with offer of cheaper production costs than China

Excerpt:

“Rather than assembling (the cars) in India they should make the entire product in the country by hiring local vendors. Then we can give higher concessions,” Gadkari said in an interview, without giving details of what incentives would be on offer.

“The government will make sure the production cost for Tesla will be the lowest when compared with the world, even China, when they start manufacturing their cars in India. We will assure that,” he said.

India is a such a mess. They keep doing this catch-22 stuff with domestic production and it's getting them nowhere. It needs to be a general guiding principle, not the absolute brick wall holding back progress.

India is the only major electricity market in the world where I've see a local gov't sanctioned body pull out of a solar PPA simply because a better price became available 18 months later. Maybe it happens elsewhere, but I haven't seen it on any significant scale. You ain't going nowhere in this decentralized sustainable economy if that's the kind of market regulation in place.

They'll likely be a policy/implementation laggard for good. Fortunately, off-the shelf decentralized products are right around the corner.

 

[Mo City]

Also SpaceX, but I just fell over this very interesting tidbit: To keep up with global demand, SpaceX is breaking ground on a new, state of the art manufacturing facility in Austin, TX. Seems like Austin is going to become a Musk Enterprises stronghold.

The above book is highly recommended btw. I haven't read it yet, only a few teasers, but Eric Berger is a big name in space journalism, and he's a good writer - I love all his articles.

Eric is great and a fellow Houstonian.

He's definitely worth a follow on Twitter for space news https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace and his Ars Technica columns are informative Eric Berger | Ars Technica.

If you live in the gulf coast region, weather is another passion of his https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX and Space City Weather. During hurricane season, Space City Weather is simply the best.