Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Johan]

Don't you guys know that everybody is jealous with Tesla rocket momentum, so they are more willing to publish bad new. This upgrade does not show up in CNBC.com and Yahoo Finance yet, but the Tesla shorts saw it at 5AM ET that's why Tesla up $606 + $43 +7.6% and NasdaQ future at +300pts +2.44% at 9AM ET. This event only happens very few time.

Yeah... no. A 6-7% gap up is in no way uncommon for TSLA. It's par for the course, just like a 30-40% drop over a month or two that just happened. Welcome to the world of TSLA.

 

[Pezpunk]

this is a quick chart i threw together from my notes, for some friends who are also investors. At the end of March, when Tesla announces its quarterly deliveries, there will inevitably be some disingenuous FUD unfavorably comparing those numbers to Q4 2020, instead of Q1 2020. We all know the challenges faced by Q1s each year. Chinese New Year shuts down that country for 3 weeks. Weather. Restocking inventory after Q4 inevitably empties both barrels. etc.

The chart attempts to give historic context to Q1 and illustrate what we will likely hear as FUD vs. reality. (Yes, my Q1 estimate is conservative)

 

[kelly]

Deployed my last dry powder back in the low $800 range so I decided it was a good time to transfer shares from my IRA to my Roth for tax free growth. Tax advisor cautioned against moving more than 400 shares this year. Talked to TD Ameritrade after
faxing in the required form and was told it will take 10 days to process . Hope the share price stays low.............

TD Ameritrade will transfer your shares from your IRA to your Roth at the closing price of the stock on the day before you initiate the transfer. I did this recently and on the day I initiated the transfer I called TD on the phone and asked them to expedite the transfer. They processed the transfer the next day.

 

[Johan]

this is a quick chart i threw together from my notes, for some friends who are also investors. At the end of March, when Tesla announces its quarterly deliveries, there will inevitably be some disingenuous FUD unfavorably comparing those numbers to Q4 2020, instead of Q1 2020. We all know the challenges faced by Q1s each year. Chinese New Year shuts down that country for 3 weeks. Weather. Restocking inventory after Q4 inevitably empties both barrels. etc.

The chart attempts to give historic context to Q1 and illustrate what we will likely hear as FUD vs. reality.View attachment 642940

That's a great visual, thanks for that.

 

[fiveten]

I found enough cash for 2 more shares....and FOMO'd and bought now instead of waiting for the 10:30 dip....

 

[Unpilot]

Good green morning

 

[Cherry Wine]

this is a quick chart i threw together from my notes, for some friends who are also investors. At the end of March, when Tesla announces its quarterly deliveries, there will inevitably be some disingenuous FUD unfavorably comparing those numbers to Q4 2020, instead of Q1 2020. We all know the challenges faced by Q1s each year. Chinese New Year shuts down that country for 3 weeks. Weather. Restocking inventory after Q4 inevitably empties both barrels. etc.

The chart attempts to give historic context to Q1 and illustrate what we will likely hear as FUD vs. reality. (Yes, my Q1 estimate is conservative)View attachment 642940

I think deliveries are going to come in much closer to Q4'20 than you're projecting.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think deliveries are going to come in much closer to Q4'20 than you're projecting.

Expectations are so low that I suspect we surprise to the upside.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Just a little longer folks...

 

[Pezpunk]

I think deliveries are going to come in much closer to Q4'20 than you're projecting.

i hope you're right, but i feel there's no advantage to publicly erring on that side of the equation. i said the estimate was conservative, but either way i dont think it affects the point the chart is making.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Seems they’re trying to cap it at $600

Edit: Failing

 

[AimStellar]

"Tesla [is] the #1 stock we recommend buying in this pullback."

- New Street's Pierre Ferragu

CHINA: Tesla delivered about 18,300 cars in February - Barron's

"Tesla is on track to be on a [200,000-plus] unit trajectory in China for the year which remains a linchpin for the company hitting its [750,000 to 800,000] annual numbers for the year." - Dan Ives (Barron's)

 

[Krugerrand]

I believe the number of investors that believed this was dumb are a minority.

Umm — maybe you were on your vacation island without Internet when it all went down because there was more than a minority in ‘this’ room who argued it was a bad move. Outside this room that not-a-minority group grew.

 

[elasalle]

Expectations are so low that I suspect we surprise to the upside.

New Entry: #VikingBravery is expected to arrive at Newark for loading Teslas on Mar 3. #13 ship in Q1 (#10 for EU | #1 from NYC)

 

[daniel]

I agree FUD will continue. What I meant (and didn't make clear) is that FSD will destroy as a plausible argument the FUD about competition. Only the totally irrational will try to argue that competition has caught up when Tesla has an obviously game-changing technology that no one else has. But even these haters might realize they can't convince anyone and must shift to other FUD.

Depends how we define "a long time." The rise of air travel is probably the closest analogy, but it's not close because early planes were less safe than FSD will be, and flying is scarier. My intuition is that yes "a lot of people won't trust it" at first, but most people will quickly adapt when they see others doing it. Humans are kinda sheepish that way.

Disagree. According to Elon's Master Plan Part Deux, Tesla Network will allow anyone to afford a Tesla (even before the $25k car arrives) because robotaxi income will allow the car to pay for itself.

The transition will be obvious to the market, which is forward-looking and will price TSLA accordingly.

You are more optimistic than I am that Tesla will be first to market with real FSD (robotaxi-capable or sleep-in-the-back).

As for FSD making the car affordable because it can be used as a robotaxi, that's a capital investment against the risk of too few people wanting to pay for a ride in it. A lot of car buyers just don't have the extra money or the ability to make payments on the higher price. FSD now costs, what? $8,000? Will Tesla lower that when it's really FSD? Or will they take the profit from people like me who will pay whatever it costs to get real FSD?

My optimism about Tesla is based on what the cars are now: The best cars you can buy. Assumptions about future technology are a risky basis for investment. (But then, I'm not an investor. I bought some TSLA at around $35 IIRC and now I'm saying WTF happened to my stock??? And wondering if I should sell before it goes back down out of the nosebleed altitudes.)

 

[Pezpunk]

Umm — maybe you were on your vacation island without Internet when it all went down because there was more than a minority in ‘this’ room who argued it was a bad move. Outside this room that not-a-minority group grew.

many of the objectors were not objecting on the basis that they knew what bitcoin would do from a speculation standpoint, but rather that investing in bitcoin is specifically and almost uniquely in opposition to Tesla's explicit mission of accelerating sustainability and combating climate change. whether or not Tesla makes money from bitcoin does not have bearing on that point.

 

[Paul_SF]

 

[powertoold]

FSD now costs, what? $8,000? Will Tesla lower that when it's really FSD? Or will they take the profit from people like me who will pay whatever it costs to get real FSD?

FSD cost may stay the same for personal use, but maybe they'll take some percentage of all robotaxi revenues? That seems more reasonable.

 

[traxila]

Umm — maybe you were on your vacation island without Internet when it all went down because there was more than a minority in ‘this’ room who argued it was a bad move. Outside this room that not-a-minority group grew.

There was certainly vocal opposition here. But I think many comments were frustrated and trying to make sense of the whole thing rather than dead set against the move. It was a distraction from the mission.

I was puzzled as well. But I never saw it as a large risk.

The most vocal and angry arguments had to do with environmental issues. I do not dismiss these at all, but I am in the dark as to worldwide financial industry power consumption overall.

 

[Nocturnal]

Being overly concentrated sucks on the way down, but it sure is fun on the way up.