Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I find it suspiciously coincidental that TSLA trades right around the S&P500 inclusion price ($695) as we approach the next rebalancing date Mar.19 (tomorrow). Is there some tangible benefit to some MMs or other whales to keep the status quo and not rock the boat, so much that they would be willing to spend $$$ to manipulate the price ? I mean apart from the usual option expiry max-pain.

Good question, but it's a "rebalancing", so every other stock in the S&P and their relative gains/losses need to be taken into account (must be one hellavu Excel the SPY Guys maintain), it's not about $TSLA SP in isolation

Of course it's skewed towards the big players, looking at these a couple have lost value since $TSLA inclusion, two are on-par, a couple have out-performed

My conclusion is that not much changes for $TSLA holdings, but could be that all the other 493 stocks had big gains, don't know, but my guess is that we won't see a huge sell-off on the back of this, but at least the MM's will have avoided more forced buying

If anyone with an actual functioning brain knows better, then shoot...

 

[Knightshade]

So while TSLA is down 25% from ATH, GM is absolutely soaring. This is hilarious given that it’s now pretty obvious that GM has entered into deals/partnerships with 2 “allegedly” fraudulent companies in NKLA and RIDE.

To be fair, VW was repeatedly caught directly engaging in fraud themselves, and they're up more than GM this month!

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Five years ago from today, my wife and I took possesion of our brand new P90D Model X.
We waited 2 1/2 years from when we put down a deposit.
We ordered a new Model X on March 2.
We wanted the longer range.
We hope to continue some road trips later this year.
We will sell our 2016 X to my brother in law; who is really excited.
We hope to take delivery by June.
I would feel better if there were some production/deliveries going on.
We could just pay cash for the new vehicle, but we will try to get a vehicle loan and use the cash to purchase shares with the expectation that the shares will be worth more in 6 years.
I am OK with TSLA being on sale for a couple more months.

I really hope you purchased Tesla's ESA prior to, or at, warranty expiration of your Model X?

Future family harmony may hinge on the answer given the Model X's questionable reliability and remarkable repair costs . . . .

Extended Service Agreement | Tesla Support

The Extended Service Agreement covers the repair or replacement necessary to correct defects in the materials or workmanship of most parts manufactured or supplied by Tesla during the coverage period, excluding the lithium-ion battery and drive unit. Learn more about what's covered and how you...

www.tesla.com

 

[jbcarioca]

For all those who are frustrated with high volatility in TSLA specifically and perhaps in other securities as well there is this:

Nearly all securities markets have 'market makers'. Market makers tend to make the most money when volatility is high in daily trading. Securities with substantial options and other derivatives make the most money for them. During the last decades the US Federal protections and limitations.built in the Securities Act of 1933 have been eliminated and the SEC has largely ceased to enforce nearly all self-dealing and insider trading restriction. That is 'largely' NOT 'totally'.

The net of that is great enhancement of earnings from market manipulation centered on high volume controversial securities. TSLA is the recent favorite.

Anybody who thinks they can outsmart to manipulators and make money with short terms or daily trading is delusional. Factually such tactics work marvelously, until they don't. Many of us are playing such games, blissfully secure in the fortunes they made in the most recent "great rise". Anybody who wants to be an investor buys and holds, and maybe does a bit of securities lending but usually does not play much with options.

Institutional investors with access to market makers directly are an entirely different story.
Fro retail investors think of short term trading as an exact parallel with casino gambling. If you like casino gambling the short term securities operations may be for you. Just do not think that is investing. It is NOT.
As in Casinos the house wins always, others might win temporarily. One needs to be in on the game to win long term.

As I have mentioned elsewhere I did spend a good part of my misspent career designing derivatives. My clients have done very well. Their clients, not so much.

 

[petit_bateau]

Have you come across any study showing the numbers of how much indirect impact cost on health of one gallon of gas sold, indirect cost for sear rise, relocation, fiture economical impac, etc. I have heard many times Elon Musk talk about the externalities cost of fossil fuel industries never being considered in gas cost price to decarbonate the CO2 emitted. However I never came accross any real number on the subject

Various links you might want to look at or delve into the citations. You can divide by approx 100 mln bbls global oil per day :

Air pollution and disease burden

Air pollution represents a considerable threat to health worldwide.1–3 According to the 2015 Global Burden of Disease Study,3 exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM)2·5 is the fifth leading risk factor for death worldwide, accounting for 4·2 million deaths and 103·1 million...

www.thelancet.com

Health Effects of Burning Fossil Fuels | State Impact Center

Air Pollution The burning of fossil fuels is the world’s largest contributor to air pollution and is a major global public health concern. It releases a wide array of harmful pollutants, including particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and other hazardous air...

www.law.nyu.edu

Fossil Fuels & Health

Producing and burning fossil fuels creates air pollution that harms our health and generates toxic emissions that drive climate change.

www.hsph.harvard.edu

Knowledge of this has gone back many decades,

Oil firms knew decades ago fossil fuels posed grave health risks, files reveal

Exclusive: documents seen by Guardian show companies fought clean-air rules despite being aware of harm caused by air pollution

www.theguardian.com

 

[hobbes]

You don’t believe that SR M3 will be below that threshold when they are being built and shipped out of Berlin?

Only Model Y out of Berlin in the beginning AFAIK.

 

[uujjj2]

I wouldn't put too much stock in this Hindenburg report on Lordstown. There were hundreds of similar pieces written about Tesla back in the early days.

There are two major claims in the Hindenburg report which are likely true. The first is that the pickup is running late. Well yeah, I pretty much expected that. In my twenty years working in Silicon Valley I've never seen a hardware startup ship its first product on time. This is just the reality of big engineering projects, especially at startup companies that don't have their processes down. I'll be shocked if Lordstown's pickup isn't late. Early Tesla ran late too.

The second claim is that the pre-orders are very soft. What you need to understand is the point of these pre-orders. These pre-orders aren't meant to sell the pickup, but to sell the stock. Lordstown doesn't have a pickup. It needs to sell stock in order to build the pickup. But to sell stock it needs to show investors that someone will buy the pickup. The point of the pre-orders is just to show investors that someone will buy the pickup. Whether the specific people who put in the pre-orders are the ones who buy the pickup is irrelevant. Tesla investors, we went through all this with the debate over S/X/3 reservation yields.

That's not to say Lordstown is guaranteed. Honestly, Lordstown faces pretty long odds to success (just like Tesla did!). But this Hindenburg report should not sway you.

 

[AudubonB]

Good question, but it's a "rebalancing", so every other stock in the S&P and their relative gains/losses need to be taken into account (must be one hellavu Excel VisiCalc the SPY Guys maintain), it's not about $TSLA SP in isolation

Fixed.

 

[AudubonB]

For all those who are frustrated with high volatility in TSLA specifically and perhaps in other securities as well there is this:

Nearly all securities markets have 'market makers'. Market makers tend to make the most money when volatility is high in daily trading. Securities with substantial options and other derivatives make the most money for them. During the last decades the US Federal protections and limitations.built in the Securities Act of 1933 have been eliminated and the SEC has largely ceased to enforce nearly all self-dealing and insider trading restriction. That is 'largely' NOT 'totally'.

The net of that is great enhancement of earnings from market manipulation centered on high volume controversial securities. TSLA is the recent favorite.

Anybody who thinks they can outsmart to manipulators and make money with short terms or daily trading is delusional. Factually such tactics work marvelously, until they don't. Many of us are playing such games, blissfully secure in the fortunes they made in the most recent "great rise". Anybody who wants to be an investor buys and holds, and maybe does a bit of securities lending but usually does not play much with options.

Institutional investors with access to market makers directly are an entirely different story.
Fro retail investors think of short term trading as an exact parallel with casino gambling. If you like casino gambling the short term securities operations may be for you. Just do not think that is investing. It is NOT.
As in Casinos the house wins always, others might win temporarily. One needs to be in on the game to win long term.

As I have mentioned elsewhere I did spend a good part of my misspent career designing derivatives. My clients have done very well. Their clients, not so much.

@jbcarioca, @AudubonB and several others have written, close to verbatim, the above post more than a few times over the past eight or so years. So why hasn't a diligent Mod excised it? Because it needs to be re-read at least that number of times. And it will be re-posted again, at such times as to keep it fresh not just for new participants in this forum, but to old-timers as well.

Besides, I have other things to do, including getting my apposite avatar to fit in the new platform.

 

[insaneoctane]

It's just one country (mine unfortunately) - so shouldn't affect Tesla much, just shift supply to other countries. Glad I have shares in Tesla, so glad.

Link from above (thanks @MikeAtkinson ) lists the actual cars/models covered by grant - Low-emission vehicles eligible for a plug-in grant

Also - as to @MikeAtkinson suggestion of under £35k limit with software unlocks (range/performance/entertainment) - sounds like a good idea, possibly even with per mile/monthly charges as a further alternative if UK Gov/Tax get strict

Spoiler: Uk-Gov-Grant-Cars-List

Cars (previously ‘category 1’)
These vehicles have CO2 emissions of less than 50g/km and can travel at least 112km (70 miles) without any emissions at all:

Citroen ë-C4 – Sense Plus
Citroen ë-C4 – Shine
DS 3 Crossback E-Tense – Prestige
DS 3 Crossback E-Tense – Performance Line
Honda e
Hyundai IONIQ Electric – Premium
Hyundai KONA Electric (39kWh) – SE Connect
Hyundai KONA Electric (39kWh) – Premium
Kia e-Niro (39kWh) - 2
Mazda MX-30
MG MG5 EV
MG ZS EV
MINI Electric – Level 1
MINI Electric – Level 2
MINI Electric – Level 3
Nissan e-NV200 (5 Seater) – Visia
Nissan e-NV200 (7 Seater) – Visia
Nissan Leaf (40kWh) – Acenta
Nissan Leaf (40kWh) – N-Connecta
Nissan Leaf (40kWh) – Tekna
Peugeot e-208
Peugeot e-2008 – Active Premium
Peugeot e-2008 – Allure
Renault ZOE
SEAT Mii electric
Skoda Citigo-e iV
Skoda ENYAQ iV 60 Nav – Loft
Skoda ENYAQ iV 60 Nav – Lodge
Smart EQ fortwo
Smart EQ forfour
Vauxhall Corsa-e
Vauxhall Mokka-e – SE Nav Premium
Volkswagen e-Golf
Volkswagen e-up!
Volkswagen ID.3 Pro (58kWh 145PS) – Life
Volkswagen ID.3 Pro Performance (58kWh 204PS) – Life
To be eligible for the grant, cars must cost less than £35,000. This is the recommended retail price (RRP), and includes VAT and delivery fees.

The grant will pay for 35% of the purchase price for these vehicles, up to a maximum of £2,500.

So, VW is selling ID.3 with 58kWh battery for <£35K including VAT and delivery fees?

This honestly surprises the hell outta me. Am I alone in thinking Tesla ought to have more margin than the ID.3? While a range of 70 miles isn’t impossible (or impressive) under £35K for this category, VW@58 kWh seems to be the outlier? I don’t see Tesla making a 70 mile variant, but a MiC model 3 with software limit/lock on the battery to keep range near the VW with a post-sale opportunity to unlock?

 

[insaneoctane]

The Michigan crash FUD from a few days ago didn't work out since the cops said it wasn't on AP, so we've got a new accident in Michigan today where it was on AP.

Tesla faces second NHTSA probe in Michigan this month

The crash is the latest in a string of accidents involving Tesla vehicles that have sparked investigations by federal safety officials.

www.cnbc.com

I was starting to forget just how annoying the constant and relentless the “fake media“ anti-Tesla FUD is....I’m not enjoying being reminded...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cramer: Bond traders spiking yields again won’t win their battle against Powell | CNBC.com 21 Min Ago

 

[Artful Dodger]

Have you come across any study showing the numbers of how much indirect impact cost on health of one gallon of gas sold, indirect cost for sear rise, relocation, fiture economical impac, etc. I have heard many times Elon Musk talk about the externalities cost of fossil fuel industries never being considered in gas cost price to decarbonate the CO2 emitted. However I never came accross any real number on the subject

Google "social cost of carbon"

 

[StealthP3D]

Have you come across any study showing the numbers of how much indirect impact cost on health of one gallon of gas sold, indirect cost for sear rise, relocation, fiture economical impac, etc. I have heard many times Elon Musk talk about the externalities cost of fossil fuel industries never being considered in gas cost price to decarbonate the CO2 emitted. However I never came accross any real number on the subject

Estimating the true direct economic costs of fossil fuel use would be a huge task that would likely miss many of the expenses. Of course, fossil energy has had many economic benefits also. But, now that we have a viable alternate path, the benefits are miniscule compared to the liabilities. I think a general estimation of the true costs would undoubtedly greatly under-estimate the actual impacts. I've never seen a comprehensive study.

I have seen a couple of attempts to account for the economic costs of just the medical impacts and it was sobering. It's hard to put a price on human cost in terms of reduced quality of life, pain and suffering and shorter lifespans but the direct costs are large enough to take immediate action to reverse this travesty.

There is no doubt that humans, as a species, are not nearly as healthy as we could be and much of it stems from our reliance on fossil fuels for so many things and cavalier attitudes towards breathing toxic gases. It's unavoidable, just a part of living, right?

 

[elasalle]

VW Power Day Praised By Wall Street/Media, Tesla Battery Day Was A Flop

Only thing battery Day did (so far) was enable VW to Copy/paste their design/goals and mr Market shunned the original and rewarded the copy paste.

Narratives will change as soon as we see the 4680's. (in Semi or in Berlin MY, with initial cells being shipped from kato Rd.)

(+ the Better approach for Tesla going forward might be to go in Stealth mode until ready for production. e.g. Skip AI day, until what you showcase is ready to be delivered within 1-2 quarters)

 

[UkNorthampton]

So, VW is selling ID.3 with 58kWh battery for <£35K including VAT and delivery fees?

This honestly surprises the hell outta me. Am I alone in thinking Tesla ought to have more margin than the ID.3? While a range of 70 miles isn’t impossible (or impressive) under £35K for this category, VW@58 kWh seems to be the outlier? I don’t see Tesla making a 70 mile variant, but a MiC model 3 with software limit/lock on the battery to keep range near the VW with a post-sale opportunity to unlock?

Selling for less probably, but RRP is important as well, usually cars are sold below recommended price

 

[wipster]

Chevy's new marketing program... buy your Bolt at Costco!

 

[neverdone]

I really hope you purchased Tesla's ESA prior to, or at, warranty expiration of your Model X?

Future family harmony may hinge on the answer given the Model X's questionable reliability and remarkable repair costs . . . .

Extended Service Agreement | Tesla Support

The Extended Service Agreement covers the repair or replacement necessary to correct defects in the materials or workmanship of most parts manufactured or supplied by Tesla during the coverage period, excluding the lithium-ion battery and drive unit. Learn more about what's covered and how you...

www.tesla.com

We did purchase ESA within a year of original purchase. Close to 90K miles now and ESA only good to 100K miles. My calculated total expenditures without ESA are less than the cost of ESA. Not sure if I will purchase ESA on our new X.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

There's talk in DC of making the tax incentive for EVs even more generous than $7500, and Schumer bringing up the idea of no more ICE cars in the US. In a sane market, this would be incredibly bullish for Tesla, but the market right now is freaking out about 0.25% changes in interest rates that are still near their all time lows.

 

[Singuy]

VW Power Day Praised By Wall Street/Media, Tesla Battery Day Was A Flop

Only thing battery Day did (so far) was enable VW to Copy/paste their design/goals and mr Market shunned the original and rewarded the copy paste.

Narratives will change as soon as we see the 4680's. (in Semi or in Berlin MY, with initial cells being shipped from kato Rd.)

(+ the Better approach for Tesla going forward might be to go in Stealth mode until ready for production)

Has the narrative ever changed? "Tesla's 4680 cells are old news technology, solid states are the future" is a headline already written.