Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
View attachment 646572

My apologies...it’s the weekend. Tesla is in a target-rich environment.

Since it is the weekend, some fodder in regards to this increase in carbon emissions projection over the next few years:


IMO: The likelier for increase variance in climate sensitivity, the likelier need for policy towards renewables. I think that'll entail higher multiples for the company in order to fuel growth to reach its goals from investors. I do wonder what happens when we start seeing more scenarios, worldwide, like the CA Wildfires "Red Day" on 9/9/2020 where extrinsic turns into intrinsic. Since that day:

Day: $366.28
7-day (after): $441.76 on 9/16/2020
1-month (after): $425.30 on 10/7/2020
3-month (after): $568.82 on 12/2/2020
Latest: $654.87

Edit: Link to California "Orange Day"

Screen Shot 2021-03-21 at 8.33.31 AM.png
 
Thank you. It is really only the single forwards-looking radar I am asking about.

I have to admit that I'm surprised that there are any blocking patents in radar & signal processing. I'd have thought that all the accessible technology patents have long since timed-out, and if that is not the case then I fully understand that $300ea is a big bill and worth avoiding.

The traditional automotive radars viewed the world as a series of left-to-right slices and did not give height. I think this is one reason why we hear of "phantom braking" events associated with driving below bridges - the NN sees a sharp shade delineation on the road, and couples that with a blocking radar echo that originates from the bridge above, and quite understandably calculates that there is too great a probability of this being a stationary obstruction spanning the roadway. There are various lines of attack on that problem but the most obvious one suffers from needing to build (extract) a database of bridges/overpasses so as to ignore braking calcs when there - and that in turn suffers from a) poor scalability, and b) one day something will be there. Another line of attack is to improve the ability of the cameras to see into highly contrasted shadow and for the NN to then pick out drivable roadway below and a bridge above quickly enough to ignore the radar return and to not hit the brakes.

A third approach is to get height out of the radar. Clearly for automotive applications we cannot do mechanical scanning, so instead we have to go to AESA radars, which also have other advantages we can exploit (track whilst scan, multiple beams, etc). But even just using them in a simplistic single beam mode we can get height out of them. Which in turn ought to solve a lot of problems (phantom braking, and improved probability of overhead gantry recognition, higher definitions). And they seem to be becoming commercially available with radar on a chip solutions for automotive.


and these sorts of things were the origins of AESA

But if they can solve it with vision, then that's cheap and great !
Height would be great and it would virtually eliminate the 'flat world's view that the radar currently has. I'd love to see the data stream from a 3D +time radar in hopes that it could be usable to fuze with camera height data at higher speeds.
 
The timing of this "profile" this morning is pretty suspect, coinciding with ARK's new TSLA targets. It is obviously meant to discredit Cathie with the crowd that most closely aligns with her by subtly highlighting her political and religious views. But again, the timing is all about trying to discredit her TSLA thesis, which is a gargantuan task given how right she was the first time around.

The Street has been feeling the heat from ARK and it’s growth message as ARK has seen such success and garnered great inflows of capital. Such pieces are not just about ARK’s positions on and in Tesla.

The negative and slyly critical pieces about Cathie and ARK have been on the rise for months.

You can tell the Street‘s true feelings by recalling "if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em" and "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery." For example, WSJ News Exclusive | Blackstone’s Hedge-Fund Business to Launch Growth Strategy.
 
The timing of this "profile" this morning is pretty suspect, coinciding with ARK's new TSLA targets. It is obviously meant to discredit Cathie with the crowd that most closely aligns with her by subtly highlighting her political and religious views. But again, the timing is all about trying to discredit her TSLA thesis, which is a gargantuan task given how right she was the first time around.

Disagree. That article is quite objective with a lot of positive things to say about her. There are way too many blind Tesla fanboys on this forum who will look for a conspiracy theory to explain why the sun rose this morning.
 
They did mention that it is likely overestimated. Also capex may increase as tesla brings more battery production in-house. So offsetting here a bit.
Their calculation error is on top of the reasons they gave for their over-estimate.

In actuality GigaShanghai phase 1 cost $1B for 250k incremental capacity, so over and above not accounting for the ramp, they added $300M in unrelated CapEx (which is partly to what they’re referring).
 
Select parts of that video is making the rounds among Tesla detractors...
The windshield has a sticker with something like "new vehicle dealer..."
- could it maybe be a demo car that somehow has FSD enabled and some
not properly briefed driver is taking it for a spin?
It also has the mylar on the center console. See the "NA" sticker at the top right. That sticker is removed prior to delivery. Was this car actually delivered prior to this video taken place? Also, if the car hadn't been delivered, the FW may not have been updated. Did they ever actually show the FW version in the UI? I couldn't find it. And interestingly it says "Profile" instead of having a name as another indicator that this car is brand new and may not have the latest FW.

EDIT: I've gone back a month to look the various videos from this YouTube channel and the videos NEVER demonstrate the actual version number of the FW. Also, the views of the interior show different cars. Sometimes the mylar is on the center screen and sometimes NOT. Seems like they might be getting a hold of different cars at different times before they are getting delivered. And remember that during delivery the FW is updated to the latest. None of these videos demonstrate the actual version number of the FW.
 
Last edited:
Are we at 5 really? GF1 is kinda a joke at current size, and I don't see any signs of further build-out - do you?

How is it a joke? Sure, they have only built it to about a third of the originally planned size, but at that size it is already producing more than the quantity of cells that they had said it was going to produce when fully built. And in addition they have added production of other things, like the electric motors, to the plant. So they have gotten way more out of way less than they planned. How is that a joke?
 
How is it a joke? Sure, they have only built it to about a third of the originally planned size, but at that size it is already producing more than the quantity of cells that they had said it was going to produce when fully built. And in addition they have added production of other things, like the electric motors, to the plant. So they have gotten way more out of way less than they planned. How is that a joke?
I think he meant it is a joke compared to the relative expected production capacity of other gigafactories. The others having significantly greater production projections.
 
Can you provide an example of the diagonal spread that you do please?

Nothing crazy. The long legs for my spreads are all in the $300s right now, from June through next March. I usually write weeklies ~15%-20% above the price on Monday or Tuesday, or the Friday previous depending on price action. I like to write a couple of strikes above round numbers since the stock often seems to meet resistance at those levels. This upcoming week I'm looking at $780 or something just above $800, but it all depends on what the stock does on Monday. If I get caught out, I'll roll out and up.
 
It also has the mylar on the center console. See the "NA" sticker at the top right. That sticker is removed prior to delivery. Was this car actually delivered prior to this video taken place? Also, if the car hadn't been delivered, the FW may not have been updated. Did they ever actually show the FW version in the UI? I couldn't find it. And interestingly it says "Profile" instead of having a name as another indicator that this car is brand new and may not have the latest FW.

EDIT: I've gone back a month to look the various videos from this YouTube channel and the videos NEVER demonstrate the actual version number of the FW. Also, the views of the interior show different cars. Sometimes the mylar is on the center screen and sometimes NOT. Seems like they might be getting a hold of different cars at different times before they are getting delivered. And remember that during delivery the FW is updated to the latest. None of these videos demonstrate the actual version number of the FW.
What does "FW" stand for?