Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Buckminster

Active Member
Aug 29, 2018
3,050
15,197
UK
What a great idea !

Along those lines, if Tesla was to find a way to give every shareholder of record a "Tesla digital wallet", and then even deposit $0.10 a share into the wallet as a dividend on occasion, would that not require all the "naked shorts" to periodically buy back the shorted shares?

I do recall reading somewhere that Tesla had recently hired the person who created Apple Pay. An electronic "Tesla Digital Wallet" with the side benefit of messing with the shorts would be delightful !!
This was the Apple guy:
Tesla hires guy behind Apple Pay to lead Supercharger experience. What you want to improve? - Electrek
Bitcoin at SC might be the next step.
 

gabeincal

Supporting Member
Jul 5, 2016
1,152
7,033
SF Bay, CA
Thanks very much for this very helpful and entertaining analysis!

On the topic of the GigaPress, someone with a reasonable insight in both the engineering and the economics went through quite a diverse set of sources and made a video with their estimate of the cost of one gigacasting, with some rather bullish findings. Their English pronunciation is not perfect and while the presentation is interesting enough, I will just post the estimated, main numbers (assuming among other things a 10% scrap rate):
1) 7/8 of the cost per unit is the cost of the raw aluminum,
2) depending on wage level (China vs US) and some other variables, unit cost is in the range 167$ - 273$.


If these numbers are anywhere near realistic, I think we can expect Tesla to try to Gigacast as much as possible...

This might be another reason why Tesla is getting into the insurance business..?
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Mike Ambler

sroh

Supporting Member
Sep 10, 2017
616
2,082
San Jose, CA
The reason I say it's a garbage note from that analyst is that it calls out something that is "a risk" that's a year out when the analyst in the same note is keeping their PT at 1200 for end of 2021.......all while the analyst seemingly doesn't acknowledge any upside catalysts for 2021. It honestly reads at a fear mongering note. If appears Tesla is on track for 900k+ deliveries by Q2 P/D numbers, the stock won't be affected by Cybertruck being pushed by a quarter. They also don't seem to be that knowledgeable about what's going on because they fail to mention that there's multiple pieces of anecdotal evidence that the Semi will start deliveries this summer. Giga Austin and Giga Berlin are both moving ahead of what anyone thought was possible even 6 months ago.

Honestly, there's no reason to put out that note except to stoke fear of further sell offs and to put doubt in investor's mind about another Cybertruck delay. We've seen no anecdotal evidence that the Cybetruck is falling further behind and we've seen plenty of evidence that the Semi is ahead of schedule.

Again sorry, but to put out a note for no reason other to say "even better entry points could lie ahead" and "Temporary selloffs seem likely, because over the next six months, there is a "high degreee of unpredictability in Tesla's production ramp" with zero evidence AFTER the stock has lost 40% of it's value is fear mongering. It's one thing to put out a note with new/updated risks and potential positives. He puts out a note emphasizing only risk and further price drops when no new information or evidence has come out. It frankly comes off as the analyst doing his buddies a favor to stoke fear to get a cheaper price before Q1 P/D numbers come out. There's zero reason for that note to come out when Q1 earnings are 4 weeks away...at which point we'll get an update on production on all things from Tesla themselves
I dunno. It seems to me that a year end PT of $1,200 has to assume some upside catalysts. To be honest, I mostly agree with the conclusions. Sure, looking back, one can say this analysis is coming out too late and the milk has already been spilled. But I don't disagree there are still risks for the first half of the year. Short term risk with long term certainty is exactly my current opinion.

I say this with no desire to add to fears. I have yet to sell one share and fully expect the SP will be much higher by year end. Maybe I'm being sanguine because I don't have any short term options and I am not on margin. So I can wait out any short-term drops.

Finally, not to be nit-picky as I understand the point you are trying to make, but we are now exactly 30% off highs, not 40%.
 

neverdone

Robinson
Jan 9, 2016
212
568
Loveland, CO
I hope so, but I doubt it and I was constantly amazed how Elon was always working more hours than many of my engineers. It's fun reading Liftoff as I don't feel so bad now about how much he pushes his teams.
I just finished reading the book. Highly recommended.
Can't wait to see the movie.
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
6,460
83,232
USA
My friend Sam Stovall is the chief investment strategist at CFRA. Today he published his latest policy notes.

Excerpt:

This bull market just celebrated its first birthday, in which the S&P 500 surged 76.1%. This was the highest first-year gain since 1945, outpacing the average of 37.5% for all prior bull markets and the 68.6% jump for the 2009 bull; the average second-year return simmered down to a more-normal 11.8% gain. This bull’s advance recouped 148% of the point loss of the 2020 bear market, making it third highest behind the first-year bulls of 1949 (+162%) and 1982 (+157%). Of the 12 prior bull markets, only the bull starting in May 1947 faltered after just 395 calendar days, while the bulls of October 1966, May 1970, and December 1987 succumbed before surpassing 1,000 days. The remaining bulls lasted from four years (October 1957) to nearly 11 years (March 2009). Finally, history says, but does not guarantee, that an above-average first-year gain has typically translated into a longer-duration bull market, whereas tepid first-year gains usually led to below-average durations.
 

Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,323
32,363
In the middle
My friend Sam Stovall is the chief investment strategist at CFRA. Today he published his latest policy notes.

Excerpt:

This bull market just celebrated its first birthday, in which the S&P 500 surged 76.1%. This was the highest first-year gain since 1945, outpacing the average of 37.5% for all prior bull markets and the 68.6% jump for the 2009 bull; the average second-year return simmered down to a more-normal 11.8% gain. This bull’s advance recouped 148% of the point loss of the 2020 bear market, making it third highest behind the first-year bulls of 1949 (+162%) and 1982 (+157%). Of the 12 prior bull markets, only the bull starting in May 1947 faltered after just 395 calendar days, while the bulls of October 1966, May 1970, and December 1987 succumbed before surpassing 1,000 days. The remaining bulls lasted from four years (October 1957) to nearly 11 years (March 2009). Finally, history says, but does not guarantee, that an above-average first-year gain has typically translated into a longer-duration bull market, whereas tepid first-year gains usually led to below-average durations.

Creative disruption as a result of the pandemic plus massive government spending and pent up consumer demand would suggest he is correct. This is the next wave of the internet eating the world.
 

CanadaEV

Member
Dec 12, 2014
311
1,570
Canada
Probably the headline is overly dramatic, but it is true that unlike a credit card payment (and in many cases also a bank transfer) a mistaken BTC transfer is impossible to reverse. I would guess that someone who has anough BTC to buy a Tesla already knows this, but the fact remains that normal consumer protection is absent for a BTC payment.

I really don't know what to make of this BTC business - I hope I am just unable to see the genius of it...
One very important fact about bitcoin is that it allows you to take responsibility for your own finances.
When the banks tell you that you need them to keep you safe, you do, if you can’t take this responsibility yourself.
Personally, I would rather be responsible for myself than accept all the baggage that comes with believing that I am unable to do so.
However, there are people who need to be protected from themselves making mistakes, and the banks are there to take care of them.

As a practical matter, I would never transfer more than a few hundred dollars in bitcoin without sending a very small amount first to verify the address I want to remit to… Then I can be very confident if I copy and paste that same address for the larger transfer. This verification is worth the cost of one extra transfer fee of maybe $10
 
Last edited:
Jan 7, 2015
259
2,119
Earth/EU/DK
This might be another reason why Tesla is getting into the insurance business..?
Right - close the loop:
  • Use feedback from repair of actual car collisions to improve cast parts, and thus the car.
  • Drive down risk of expensive insurance payouts.
  • Iterate so that cast part can degrade gracefully in minor impacts, and be more easily replaced for major impacts.
This is the way.
 

buttershrimp

Click my signature to Go Mad Max Mode
Jun 17, 2017
2,943
7,302
ATX
Couch cushion success. An auspicious total number of shares would result. Waiting for tomorrow’s MMD.
Has anyone actually put a window of time on the MMD? On average? Or are people just watching candlesticks in the morning and waiting for inverted hammers, etc.?
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
11,556
15,528
NC
Is it indicative of the level of threat the Mach-e is posing, that I’ve seen a grand total of 1 in the Bay Area so far..?


Entire first year of production going to the US is only about 20,000 cars... They'll easily sell every one (and would likely sell a lot more if they had, say, realized batteries would be an important thing to secure a lot of years ago).

New non-crap EVs aren't a threat to Tesla, they're a threat to ICE vehicles... EV demand is higher than supply will be for a long time to come.
 

OrthoSurg

Member
Jun 2, 2017
816
5,178
Montreal
This is currently showing on my yahoo news feed.
View attachment 647587
Basically Tesla said if you wire your BitCoin to a wrong person, don’t come to us and ask for a car.

And this can make it to news headlines... peak FUD I would say.
A customer wiring a Bitcoin transaction transfer to the wrong recipient cannot be reversed.

my headline would get no clicks. Informative. No clickbait.

what FUD world are we in. Who wants the SP so low to give us the opportunity to buy more, more and more, just before take off.
 
Last edited:

lklundin

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,972
20,323
Bavaria
One very important fact about bitcoin is that it allows you to take responsibility for your own finances.
When the banks tell you that you need them to keep you safe, you do, if you can’t take this responsibility yourself.
Personally, I would rather be responsible for myself than accept all the baggage that comes with believing that I am unable to do so.
However, there are people who need to be protected from themselves making mistakes, and the banks are there to take care of them.

As a practical matter, I would never transfer more than a few hundred dollars in bitcoin without sending a very small amount first to verify the address I want to remit to… Then I can be very confident if I copy and paste that same address for the larger transfer. This verification is worth the cost of one extra transfer fee of maybe $10

I didn't try the BTC-Koolaid and along with my strong belief that banks and the financial sector has to be regulated (by something other than a paper tiger) I have these doubts about BTC:
1) The transaction overhead in terms of energy is very high - a problem for everyone but especially for a company trying to make the World sustainable - also wrt. PR,
2) BTC may not formally be seen as a currency, regardless it certainly has the equivalent of currency risk (and a lot of it too),
3) Faced with currency risk Tesla's accumulation of BTC can only be interpreted as their belief that it's value will go up - i.e. it's an investment bet, something which seems unrelated to Tesla's business plan,
4) Some BTC proponents like to contrast BTC with 'fiat money' - forgetting the fact that the government that backs its 'fiat money' has both an army for external threats and tax collectors (also ultimately backed by state-sanctioned violence). Compared with that, a crypto-currency is the ultimate faith-based (i.e. fiat) money, it is nothing but an algorithm and some open-source software with the support of no one,
5) A government will legislate to protect itself and to some extent the state and sometimes also its citizens - and passes laws it sees fit for this purpose. Such laws include 'legal tender' laws that heavily regulate methods and mediums of payment. As such, BTC has the risk of being outlawed (regardless of what many voters may prefer) if it is deemed too much of a competition to the legal tender (e.g. triggered by a loss of VAT revenue),
6) Because of their nature (see 4) - anybody can come up with a crypto-currency - so in that sense it is a bit like a pyramid-scheme, if you start one you make off like a bandit and if you come in late you end up as a bag-holder. So there is the risk to BTC that some competing crypto-currency (maybe a less energy-intensive one) will take away its market-share - which is one reason why there are so many crypto-currencies,
7) Although BTC is seen by some (and you seem to be included) as a way to revolt against the established, state-backed monetary system, it is entirely possible that a state will introduce its own crypto-currency, not just because of several of the preceding arguments, but also because it has the potential to lower transaction overhead. This increases the risk that BTC becomes out-lawed or out-competed,
8) As for transaction cost, Tesla's introduction of BTC seems to be a solution in search of a problem. I paid my Model 3 with a bank transfer - which EU regulation mandates must be free of a fee (which it thus was),
9) There are additional arguments against BTC, such as it being very popular among Internet-scammers - and the question, why should widespread adoption of this payment system make some unknown person(s) 'Satoshi Nakamoto' into what is likely a trillionaire? For the people objecting to the current financial system, that's just like toppling one dictator just to put another one into power.

I will not be disappointed if this post is moderated away, my point being that it is just too easy to formulate a lot of critical questions regarding BTC - especially in relation to Tesla.
 

woodisgood

All your cell are belong to us
Jul 26, 2018
2,356
11,117
San Francisco
Has anyone actually put a window of time on the MMD? On average? Or are people just watching candlesticks in the morning and waiting for inverted hammers, etc.?
If it's a typical MMD day, then you're pretty safe buying around 730 PST / 1030 EST. Some days the exact bottom is ~15 minutes to either side of that, but you wouldn't be unhappy buying at the half hour. Of course, there are days like today where even though there was a MMD around that 730/1030 time, we dropped much lower later in the day.
 

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top