Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

7yr Treasuries auction is about to end. Do we zoom up or poop in bed?

 

[Krugerrand]

@Papafox had great point about not focusing on P&D and instead paying attention to battery, etc. I’m curious if people here think ARK numbers are possible given nickel and battery bottlenecks? I could see a larger shift to iron cells in lower mileage cybertruck or semi, but simply I don’t know how Tesla might juggle these variables. Anyone know what is more likely scenarios?

Pretty sure Tesla will just partner with mines - oh, wait..

 

[TheTalkingMule]

In the meantime, Welcome GME investors.

Not.....so.....fast!



P.S. This is the like 8th time in a row that a major dip in TSLA has preceded a 25+% spike in GME. I think I actually got banned for a week for mentioning this a couple months back, but it bears watching and IMO is interesting.

 

[woodisgood]

7yr Treasuries auction is about to end. Do we zoom up or poop in bed?

The answer is poop, until it isn’t.

 

[Baumisch]

I think you need the adapter regardless as this would include the identification of the car and the protocol negotiation, etc. - how else are you going to do the billing?

In Germany we have Plug&Charge already in selected models and stations (I think only Ionity for now?) - nut for sure it's part of CCS Standard - so Tesla could just let the customer map the Vehicle ID to SC Account and let user confirm every charge session on phone again - done

TBH - long term I love the idea - short term it's gonna be interesting. Yeah on TMC everyone is raving on Tesla cars - but on the street the quality on the cars is not close to german middle-class standards and it's easy to spot - so I really hope Grünheide GF Berlin gets the quality up+

UPDATE: There seems to be 2 competing Standards? If you wanna nerd out check here

If someone asks me why Tesla Cars just charge without issues at Superchargers - this graphic makes clear that only Tesla owns all 4 entities involved - so maybe they open up 1 of those 4 for other Car manufacturers:

Update: After reading through the document - You got Autocharge that just uses the MAC Adress of the car and could be spoofed - and Plug&Charge that uses the complicated encryption/certification model across involved parties to make sure you can't just spoof identitiy.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla opening the SC network to everyone might well be a fantastic long term revenue plan that's good for the company and the share price as revenues start rolling in in the future.

But 100% it'll be portrayed in media as Tesla losing "their biggest advantage" vs competition or something like that and being used to beat up on company valuation and future short term.

I'd also want to see the math.... right now Tesla already has the costs ahead of them to build a nationwide megacharger network for semis--- plus tons of those "Cybertruck friendly" superchargers they promised a while back... add costs of building enough added regular chargers to handle other brands vehicles and again even if long term it's a great idea it's gonna be a hit to the books on the front end (barring something in the infrastructure plan I suppose)







Tesla has said they don't have enough battery supply for themselves for the next 5-10 years minimum, so they sure don't have enough to supply other car makers.

Always a downside to advancing the mission.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla really needs an expanded Supercharger network for the Cybertruck, at places truck owners would visit often. Home Depot would be the logical place!

Why? Last time I was at HD, I don’t recall seeing a HD gas station in the parking lot. Pretty sure the most logical place would be charging overnight at their home or business.

 

[Prunesquallor]

In Germany we have Plug&Charge already in selected models and stations (I think only Ionity for now?) - nut for sure it's part of CCS Standard - so Tesla could just let the customer map the Vehicle ID to SC Account and let user confirm every charge session on phone again - done

TBH - long term I love the idea - short term it's gonna be interesting. Yeah on TMC everyone is raving on Tesla cars - but on the street the quality on the cars is not close to german middle-class standards and it's easy to spot - so I really hope Grünheide GF Berlin gets the quality up+

UPDATE: There seems to be 2 competing Standards? If you wanna nerd out check here

View attachment 647828

So, I've never used a CCS charger. Are you telling me the steps are:
1) Plug in car
2) Unlock phone
3) Fire up the (correct) app
4) Input charger location
5) Input stall number
6) Pay
?
vs. with Tesla/SC

1) Plug in car

Edit: If that's true and Tesla opens up the network, the SC/smart-adapter experience will be so superior, people will never use CCS again.

Edit2: plus they'll realize how clunky those CCS plugs are

 

[asburgers]

I'm not fanboi-ing but Cathie is speaking extremely well today.
Interesting point I haven't heard: TSLA uses BTC to do business in regions of the world where conversion to fiat is prohibitively expensive.

 

[Baumisch]

So, I've never used a CCS charger. Are you telling me the steps are:
1) Plug in car
2) Unlock phone
3) Fire up the (correct) app
4) Input charger location
5) Input stall number
6) Pay
?
vs. with Tesla/SC

1) Plug in car

Well - you can use an APP from any MobilityOperator and navigate to the right plug (which you have to locate on the chargepoint as commonly they have more than one) and then you can hopefully charge.

OR you can use an RFID token for most Chargepoints - this makes it faster as you don't have to deal with apps.



The RFID way is quite okay - not SuC like - but okay.

For Tesla they can't ship RFID Tokens as SuC Stalls can't read them - so either use AutoCharge or Plug&Charge via CCS or ship some clunky Adapter which I don't think is a good strategy as onboarding new users is quite expensive on both sides Tesla and customer

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla may eventually enable this. but I believe that it's more likely Tesla will initiate sales of an adaptor that you will be able to link a credit card to, or directly to a tesla account. I believe that Elon may feel that having to open a phone on your app and then specify a charging station/location is below the 'Tesla Standard of Excellence', especially when compared to just plug in your car and start charging.

This from the company who lets you honk, unlock doors, summon the car, climate control etc... and is pushing service exclusively to an APP. Nope, I’m going with it’ll be a Tesla APP that they download and use.

 

[Baumisch]

Well - you can use an APP from any MobilityOperator and navigate to the right plug (which you have to locate on the chargepoint as commonly they have more than one) and then you can hopefully charge.

OR you can use an RFID token for most Chargepoints - this makes it faster as you don't have to deal with apps.



The RFID way is quite okay - not SuC like - but okay.

For Tesla they can't ship RFID Tokens as SuC Stalls can't read them - so either use AutoCharge or Plug&Charge via CCS or ship some clunky Adapter which I don't think is a good strategy as onboarding new users is quite expensive on both sides Tesla and customer

Adding to this:

IONITY Network in Deutschland, Norwegen, Dänemark, Schweden, Finnland, Italien und Tschechien already support Plug&Charge (like tesla SuC) - BUT .... only for the Porsche Taycan as only P&C compatible model right now ...

 

[Tslynk67]

LOL. Herb Tarlek from WKRP pouring cheap scotch into an expensive scotch bottle. Les Nessman: "Herb, what are you doing?" Herb: "Aging scotch."

I recall someone informed which Tequilla was actually in the bottle, or at least the company that produces, so I might just get some of their finest and fill it up...

Stoked to get one though, not sure the wife will share my enthusiasm, didn't tell her yet, especially as it will be on display in the living room

 

[asburgers]

So, I've never used a CCS charger. Are you telling me the steps are:
1) Plug in car
2) Unlock phone
3) Fire up the (correct) app
4) Input charger location
5) Input stall number
6) Pay

In my experience, you:

1) Unlock phone
2) Fire up the (correct) app
3) Input charger location
4) Input stall number
5) Attempt to release the charger
6) Wiggle charger
7) Check phone
8) Wiggle charger again until it releases once the app is done communicating with the station
9) Plug in car
10) Check charger screen to ensure it is charging
11) Check car screen to ensure it is charging
12) ...charging...
13) Return to car
14) Open app to disable charging
15a) Wiggle wiggle as charger detaches from adapter
15b) Curse as you attempt to remove the adapter from the charging head by clamping it between your thighs
16) Check charging screen to ensure charger has stopped charging you
17) Check app
18) Drive away

 

[Singuy]

Tesla opening the SC network to everyone might well be a fantastic long term revenue plan that's good for the company and the share price as revenues start rolling in in the future.

But 100% it'll be portrayed in media as Tesla losing "their biggest advantage" vs competition or something like that and being used to beat up on company valuation and future short term.

I'd also want to see the math.... right now Tesla already has the costs ahead of them to build a nationwide megacharger network for semis--- plus tons of those "Cybertruck friendly" superchargers they promised a while back... add costs of building enough added regular chargers to handle other brands vehicles and again even if long term it's a great idea it's gonna be a hit to the books on the front end (barring something in the infrastructure plan I suppose)







Tesla has said they don't have enough battery supply for themselves for the next 5-10 years minimum, so they sure don't have enough to supply other car makers.

My suspicion, WH reached out to Tesla as they are the only company that can build chargers at scale with solar and battery back up. Government may be extending a huge contract to them to get this done in the next three years and puting the end to the "but electricity comes from coal!" debate. So think bigger, this is bigger. Changing the entire infrastructure.

With 10s of thousands of these micro energy generating stations up and running, Tesla can use autobidder and act as battery back up as well for the grid.

 

[larmor]

I'm not fanboi-ing but Cathie is speaking extremely well today.
Interesting point I haven't heard: TSLA uses BTC to do business in regions of the world where conversion to fiat is prohibitively expensive.

Maybe Fiat Chrysler can buy their zero emissions credits with BTC instead of paying with fiat... Just saying...

 

[Unpilot]

This from the company who lets you honk, unlock doors, summon the car, climate control etc... and is pushing service exclusively to an APP. Nope, I’m going with it’ll be a Tesla APP that they download and use.

Sure ...but can you make fart noises from the app?
I want the option to make LOUD fart noises from the app...are you listening Elon!

 

[JustMe]

My suspicion, WH reached out to Tesla as they are the only company that can build chargers at scale with solar and battery back up. Government may be extending a huge contract to them to get this done in the next three years and puting the end to the "but electricity comes from coal!" debate. So think bigger, this is bigger. Changing the entire infrastructure.

With 10s of thousands of these micro energy generating stations up and running, Tesla can use autobidder and act as battery back up as well for the grid.

There’s no way that this would happen without an RFP and open competition. Government would be sued in a heartbeat by EA et al.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Short interest increased a little from the period 02/26/2021 (share price $675) to 03/15/2021 (share price $707).
The short amount also increased a little in this period.

• Public float increased from 769.330.000 to 771.690.000
• Shares shorted from 44.000.000,00 to 44.730.000,00
• Float shorted from 5,72% to 5,80%
• Amount shorted from $29.700.000.000,00 to $31.624.110.000,00

I have not much to add to these numbers except that I bought the Decanter!

Interesting to see the public float quoted as such a fat percentage of total. 772M out of 960M. I wonder what the realistic float is these days since inclusion has passed?

We haven't had any big trigger events to test the float on a "major news squeeze". If institutions and passive funds bought up hundreds of millions of shares, and pseudo-insiders hold a ton.....what's realistically left liquid to cover these 44.7M shorted shares on a spike past $1,000? Maybe 180M non-passive institutional and 260M retail?

It would be nice to wrap my head around a formula to keep post-inclusion short interest in perspective.

 

[Singuy]

There’s no way that this would happen without an RFP and open competition. Government would be sued in a heartbeat by EA et al.

Just like how nasa did it with SpaceX, the government will be awarding many companies these contracts.