Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FireMedic]

I know you all may disagree like crazy but if this means a Rivian will be able to use the Supercharger network I am canceling my Cybertruck and ordering a Rivian. Rivian should have signed up with Tesla's Supercharger network right out of the gate. It is the only thing keeping me from buying one while I wait for the Cybertrucks to get all the early vehicle kinks worked out.

You don’t think Rivian might just have some new vehicle kinks too? C’mon, is rivian somehow now some established reliable brand?
Also, Rivian announced their own SC network already, so...
Then there’s that Musk/Bezos friendship.
I think Rivian is least likely to be part of the SC network.

 

[buttershrimp]

The folks who should be on their knees thanking Tesla are the Taycan drivers. Now they won't have to sit at Walmart waiting for EA to trickle-charge their Porsche.

Nothing worse than the polite conversation with a taycan owner to say, “yes I hear it’s a nice car”. And I’m thinking “which truly sucks compared to a 5 year old Performance S... but here is your pity compliment anyway ....“

 

[dl003]

So, Tesla becomes the new Chevron/Texaco/gas station. Um, that seems like a good thing.

I think it's more like an iMax/Cinemark equivalence since Tesla doesn't monopolize electricity like gas stations do with gas. On the other hand, you can watch a DVD at home or you can pay a premium to go to the theater which is fine IMHO.

 

[scaesare]

Interesting. They'd have to put the circuitry and firmware in the adapter to spoof the SC into thinking it’s the equivalent of a Tesla VIN.

I suspect this is not the case... unless something has changed recently, although the car VIN was passed to the Supercharger, it didn't appear to be used for any validation on the Supercharger side.

And even if it were, Tesla would be more likely to simply change the VIN # validation rules on the Supercharger side, rather than spoof the VIN in the adapter.

 

[thx1139]

In the Netherlands incentives become less great every time we cross Jan 1. So there is a great rush to buy Teslas in December. My reading of the chart is that Tesla has downprioritized the Dutch market in Q1. Perhaps Tesla found another country more worthwhile. We should know soon.

Everything is down in Netherlands big time for Q1.

Last year 6 manufacturers had more then the top manufacturer this year. This year for Q1 the top manufacturer is KIA with 303 so far. Last year the worst of the 6 was SKODA with 424. Did Netherlands change laws/incentives about EVs? Is it a delay in the reporting?

Got my info from https://eu-evs.com/

 

[asburgers]

I almost cried in pre-market this morning. That's usually my signal to buy and HODL.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

absolutely. Additionally during longer charging time, they will have to stare at the numerous Teslas going in and out. In a crowd, we all have the subconscious need to fit in, so their desire for Tesla’s will grow. Not to mention if they are socially apt, they can talk w the many happy tesla owners - check the various tesla models out etc. Again making the conversion easier - since they already checked out the vehicle w/o having to go to a tesla showroom.

Even more options with: Tesla supercharger station marketplace, coffee shops, etc

I'm verging on a 180 for my stance on charging given all this conversation around non-Tesla's at supercharger locations. I assumed Elon would be happy to move on from charging and leave it primarily to the "Android sector" to build out the ACME Charging Network. But all these posts got me thinking:

1) There's massive, likely underappreciated, value in the captive audience at charging locations. It's valuable for gas fill-ups by the riff raff, how much more valuable is it with 5-10x the stay duration by almost exclusively well-off early adopters?

2) The Biden infrastructure plan is likely making it mandatory for Tesla to open up to all vehicles or they get nothing. If that's the case, then you either dramatically slow or dramatically ramp your expansion of the supercharger footprint. We can now guess which way Elon is leaning.

Great move considering all the ancillary Energy benefits we're not even thinking of yet. If superchargers and Tesla solar/Powerwall customers are everywhere, pretty soon you can be aggregating excess solar supply and selling directly to EV owners. Eventually you'd be able to bypass a lot of middlemen and take all the profit.

And to think just yesterday Cramer was advocating a rotation into "safe" utilities and Chevron. Lol!

 

[hitchhiker]

Because Rivian won't have any "early vehicle kinks" to work out? Of course, they will have almost no service network to work them out with...

No problem... Amazon will have you drop them off at a UPS store to ship back for service.

 

[buttershrimp]

@Papafox had great point about not focusing on P&D and instead paying attention to battery, etc. I’m curious if people here think ARK numbers are possible given nickel and battery bottlenecks? I could see a larger shift to iron cells in lower mileage cybertruck or semi, but simply I don’t know how Tesla might juggle these variables. Anyone know what is more likely scenarios?

 

[jerry33]

(+ 3plus years and I haven't been to a SC ... home Solar Charged )

If you don't take trips and don't live where there is no home charging, then there's no reason to use a Supercharger. I've used one close by once, only because the first normal charging stop was down to one stall and had a lineup. Here in the Supercharger desert, you need all the electrons you can get.

 

[FireMedic]

If you don't take trips and don't live where there is no home charging, then there's no reason to use a Supercharger. I've used one close by once, only because the first normal charging stop was down to one stall and had a lineup. Here in the Supercharger desert, you need all the electrons you can get.

Ive got that free lifetime supercharging on my X and almost always have some referral credits for our 3...and there’s great shopping near my location SC station. So I SC a fair amount. And usually spend more $ then I would on gasoline…But at least I leave with something to show for it.
I usually call it my free lunch!

 

[scaesare]

So Tesla hired the guy who built ApplePay a few months back, and now it may be that they are opening the Superchargers to other car makes.

This might be interesting... While the Supercharger usage may go up, so then would revenue from charging. This could actually accelerate the Supercharger buildout even further. It may even be possible that expansion could outpace additional usage[1], actually increasing average availability.


[1] Assuming appropriate average session times & utilization, Erlang distributions suggest that overall wait queue can times decrease at greater-than-linear rate as compared to number of sites. In other words it's likely that 4x number of cars utilizing the superchargers may only need 2-3X the number of sites to not degrade availability.

 

[cusetownusa]

I know you all may disagree like crazy but if this means a Rivian will be able to use the Supercharger network I am canceling my Cybertruck and ordering a Rivian. Rivian should have signed up with Tesla's Supercharger network right out of the gate. It is the only thing keeping me from buying one while I wait for the Cybertrucks to get all the early vehicle kinks worked out.

honestly, I think I agree with you. I really like the Rivian SUV and would be perfect as a family hauler. Only reason I wasn't considering it is because we like to go on some roadtrips and I don't trust the public charging network. If they can use the Tesla Supercharging network than I might just have to get the Rivian.

 

[buttershrimp]

Imagine sitting in a non-tesla EV, charging up for an hour and seeing how three Teslas filled up and went away in the same time?
They should charge the same for kWh and add time cost ... slower you charge, more you pay. Double pain

I agree it is win-win , only issue is when former Tesla owner Ted goes to dark side to buy a etron only to laughed at by his supercharger buddies

 

[buttershrimp]

How many times does everyone here AND elon have to repeatedly state that there is no way a starlink antenna is going to fit in a tesla car. Stop pretending it will!

So maybe it can line the Frunk?

 

[H Mak]

Auto maker long term debt: (descending order)

Volkswagen $211B
Toyota $185B
Ford $154B
BMW $127B
GM $114B
Daimler $106B
---
Tesla $13B

Yes, the other Auto majors have an average of $150B in debt. Tesla (on the other hand) has ZERO net debt (more cash on hand than total debt).

Now, the others will be losing customers at the Superchargers, too... (because the best Tesla marketing is done by Tesla owners)

Cheers!

Given VW's market cap is only €140B that's an awfully precarious position to be in. It wouldn't take much of an event (rising interest rates to name but one) to put them in peril. It's all very well arguing whether or not the ID3 or ID4 will take market share, but that debt mountain on their balance sheet is one hell of an elephant in the room. I would not want to be invested in VW with that hanging over me.

 

[Nocturnal]

As far as the SC network opening up, consider your benefit as a shareholder being greater than your potential loss as a customer. Of course it's not necessarily a loss to customers either. At least in the Midwest, the issue is not SC overcrowding, but just lack of locations. If that new revenue helps the build out I will be much better off as a Tesla owner.

I know you all may disagree like crazy but if this means a Rivian will be able to use the Supercharger network I am canceling my Cybertruck and ordering a Rivian. Rivian should have signed up with Tesla's Supercharger network right out of the gate. It is the only thing keeping me from buying one while I wait for the Cybertrucks to get all the early vehicle kinks worked out.

I hope it's reciprocal. Rivian says they want to focus on places like trailheads where people will be going offroad or into rural areas. SC network is highway dominated. As a CT buyer I'd love to be able to access those close to the action chargers and I'm sure Rivian buyers would love the instant highway access.

 

[asburgers]

About this fantastic Giga Texas vid from yesterday:

Give it a watch, subscribe, and a like.

TL;DW - Joe's Est Prod Timelines: MY (Pre-Prod early Q3/21); CT (Pre-Prod early Q4/21); 4680 Battery (Init Prod Early Q3/21); Semi (Possible start Q2Q3/22)

Factory is buzzing!

 

[asburgers]

Opening SC network to other manufacturers is pretty good to grab market share in the charging market (boo to EA). With the condition that the other manufacturers be able to charge at reasonable rates, it could mean that Tesla becomes their battery supplier as well. SC network grows behind this new revenue stream. Das good.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla opening the SC network to everyone might well be a fantastic long term revenue plan that's good for the company and the share price as revenues start rolling in in the future.

But 100% it'll be portrayed in media as Tesla losing "their biggest advantage" vs competition or something like that and being used to beat up on company valuation and future short term.

I'd also want to see the math.... right now Tesla already has the costs ahead of them to build a nationwide megacharger network for semis--- plus tons of those "Cybertruck friendly" superchargers they promised a while back... add costs of building enough added regular chargers to handle other brands vehicles and again even if long term it's a great idea it's gonna be a hit to the books on the front end (barring something in the infrastructure plan I suppose)

Opening SC network to other manufacturers is pretty good to grab market share in the charging market (boo to EA). With the condition that the other manufacturers be able to charge at reasonable rates, it could mean that Tesla becomes their battery supplier as well. SC network grows behind this new revenue stream. Das good.

Tesla has said they don't have enough battery supply for themselves for the next 5-10 years minimum, so they sure don't have enough to supply other car makers.