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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Mar 8, 2012
19,587
22,074
Texas
I don't make the rules and I'm not saying they are ideal. What I did say was the credit was always targeted towards higher income earners but it's primary purpose was to jump-start EV production and sales. It does that by reducing the price disparity between an ICE car and an EV whether the manufacturer takes some of it or not. It's really a benefit to manufacturers who cannot make EV's cost competitive with ICE and doesn't really help Tesla make or sell more cars but it can increase their margins. Like I said, it's not how I would do it because it's not the most cost-effective way to increase EV sales.



I didn't know whether I would be able to use any or all of the credit for the two EV's we bought in 2018 and I couldn't be bothered to check - I knew I was going to buy the cars with or without the credit. Even though I'm in the top 1% (net worth, not income) I hadn't sold enough stock to use any of it but it didn't matter, my purchases were not influenced by the credits.
I had no problem using the three $7500 credits on the EVs (and early on, hybrids) I've purchased--and I'm nowhere near the top 1%.
 

Mike Smith

Active Member
Jul 2, 2016
2,189
29,012
Toronto
This evening's China in Focus show has a small segment on problems Tesla is having with the Chinese goverment.

Starts at 19:32

This clearly isn't true. Tesla is designing and building bleeding edge technology products in China, using Chinese workers and Chinese suppliers, and selling the products in China and around the world. This is everything the Chinese government wants.
 

SO16

Active Member
Feb 25, 2016
2,811
8,684
MI
Unbelievable... CNBC are about to devote precious airtime to the less-than-ten Tesla customers who got double-charged.
A whopping 6 of them and the problem has been resolved.

Would be kind of cool though if Tesla would give them their car for free (or at least a massive discount for the troubles). Since there were only 6. Talk about good PR. Everyone would want to get double charged. Turn the negative into a positive.

 
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lascavarian

Active Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,008
5,270
usa
Makes way more sense to me.
The point of a stimulus is to spread work and income broadly with some focus on useful activities such as lowering carbon emission.

Simplicity reduces the impact.

When using the tax rebate program in 2013, the easy/simple customer plan was to lease. Leasing involved the most people IMO.

The manufacturer gets pricing help. The dealer gets floor traffic. The bank gets a lease. The customer gets a lower entry point for a new EV regardless of tax status. All of this added business activity is generally stimulating economically.

I did not go with a lease but it was obviously an important way to take full advantage of the incentive immediately.
 

UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
583
4,966
Northampton, England
"Tesla Model 3's are the most popular car to get through Octopus' salary sacrifice scheme"

Octopus work closely with Tesla & they have Energy, Vehicle Leasing, etc. In fact, they have a Tesla tariff (International English, rate/plan in North America I believe) for those willing to have solar + powerwall - organised through Octopus. They have an Autobidder type software called Kraken, a range of EV-friendly tariffs, including Go and Agile (Time Of Use tariff that sometimes goes negative), and their corporate ethos seems similar to Tesla. In UK, Germany, Australia & USA I think.

This article relates to company car schemes in UK. Company cars used to be a big thing, but tax changes killed it for ICE. Only EVs make sense for most people, with low/zero Benefit In Kind and especially if combined with salary sacrifice, both Employer and Employee save a lot of tax. Possibly similar in other European countries which already have higher rates of company car use.
The way it works is something like this (rough/made up figures). You get a car allowance of say £500 per month, insurance, maintenance etc is covered & a list of cars to choose from. eg

Zoe - £300/month
e-Niro / ID3 - £400
M3LRAWD - £700

The first 2 would either mean wasted allowance or some companies may pay it to you (but taxed at 20-50% if NI/Social Insurance is included)

With salary sacrifice you might choose to pay an extra £200 of GROSS pay (Tesla Stretch). This might equate to £100-150 of NET pay. The Employer also saves on Employer NI/Social costs (12%?). It really adds up in large organisations. Also, charging infrastructure for non-Teslas isn't great, so if you have road warriors (sales, consultants, managers) who need to get places with little hassle, Tesla is the way to go, Good for tech companies, sales egos as conversation starters, green etc

Edit: I didn't read the whole article before posting.
Some other bits

NB: although it looks more expensive than above, it depends on whether PURE salary sacrifice or (as I had it in the old days) I had a salary and a separate car allowance on my payslip & contractual obligations that I had to provide a car that should be less than 4 years old, 4 doors, business use insurance and able/insured to carry colleagues/equipment in comfort. I think my car allowance was around £3,500/yr, others had £6,000 depending on legacy contracts. Later I think it was £5,000 per year (in another job).

"Octopus said many drivers are saving 30 to 40 per cent and some up to 60 per cent.

For example, for a 40 per cent tax rate payer opting for a Tesla Model 3, the typical net cost for an employee is £435 every month with the gross sacrifice from salary coming in at £726 per month.

This provides savings of £290 per month, inclusive of income tax and national insurance with just £14 in BiK tax and equates to savings of £13,920 over a four year period.
Inclusive of this is insurance, servicing and maintenance"

and

"141 companies have signed up to salary sacrifice with Octopus, making it available to 22,298 employees.

Some 15 companies are already live on the scheme, including Huel and Purplebricks, making it available to 1,491 employees across the UK."


 
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Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,542
24,181
US
Looks to be another sad disappointment for tsla shareholders today. We get the multiple when qqq dumps but not the multiple when qqq skyrocket. Ending negative this week will be one of the most disappointing weeks in recent memory when Tesla has all the tail wind such as strong macro and strong material information.
 
Jan 19, 2013
954
11,525
Canada
Looks to be another sad disappointment for tsla shareholders today. We get the multiple when qqq dumps but not the multiple when qqq skyrocket. Ending negative this week will be one of the most disappointing weeks in recent memory when Tesla has all the tail wind such as strong macro and strong material information.

TSLA up 1% currently while NASDAQ in the red. Patience will be rewarded.
Screen Shot 2021-04-08 at 8.06.51 AM.png
 

Runarbt

Active Member
Mar 1, 2013
1,109
4,048
Drammen, Norway
What defines a good day?

Any day I am able to load up on cheap leaps.. sell CC or naked puts at high IVs, or we see solid green. :-D

Its all about perspective.. find the correct angle. ;-) Stay nimble and flexible.


Edit: That is the optimal situations.. I get way too bullish and mess up often.. lol

Ex. I closed my 4x open CC 4/30 $690 at the top after P&D numbers. At a loss.. as I was sure we would go way above $700 this week.
 

elasalle

driVIN(188xx) it !!
Jan 26, 2016
4,028
21,535
VA
"Tesla Model 3's are the most popular car to get through Octopus' salary sacrifice scheme"

Octopus work closely with Tesla & they have Energy, Vehicle Leasing, etc. In fact, they have a Tesla tariff (International English, rate/plan in North America I believe) for those willing to have solar + powerwall - organised through Octopus. They have an Autobidder type software called Kraken, a range of EV-friendly tariffs, including Go and Agile (Time Of Use tariff that sometimes goes negative), and their corporate ethos seems similar to Tesla. In UK, Germany, Australia & USA I think.

This article relates to company car schemes in UK. Company cars used to be a big thing, but tax changes killed it for ICE. Only EVs make sense for most people, with low/zero Benefit In Kind and especially if combined with salary sacrifice, both Employer and Employee save a lot of tax. Possibly similar in other European countries which already have higher rates of company car use.
The way it works is something like this (rough/made up figures). You get a car allowance of say £500 per month, insurance, maintenance etc is covered & a list of cars to choose from. eg

Zoe - £300/month
e-Niro / ID3 - £400
M3LRAWD - £700

The first 2 would either mean wasted allowance or some companies may pay it to you (but taxed at 20-50% if NI/Social Insurance is included)

With salary sacrifice you might choose to pay an extra £200 of GROSS pay (Tesla Stretch). This might equate to £100-150 of NET pay. The Employer also saves on Employer NI/Social costs (12%?). It really adds up in large organisations. Also, charging infrastructure for non-Teslas isn't great, so if you have road warriors (sales, consultants, managers) who need to get places with little hassle, Tesla is the way to go, Good for tech companies, sales egos as conversation starters, green etc

Edit: I didn't read the whole article before posting.
Some other bits

NB: although it looks more expensive than above, it depends on whether PURE salary sacrifice or (as I had it in the old days) I had a salary and a separate car allowance on my payslip & contractual obligations that I had to provide a car that should be less than 4 years old, 4 doors, business use insurance and able/insured to carry colleagues/equipment in comfort. I think my car allowance was around £3,500/yr, others had £6,000 depending on legacy contracts. Later I think it was £5,000 per year (in another job).

"Octopus said many drivers are saving 30 to 40 per cent and some up to 60 per cent.

For example, for a 40 per cent tax rate payer opting for a Tesla Model 3, the typical net cost for an employee is £435 every month with the gross sacrifice from salary coming in at £726 per month.

This provides savings of £290 per month, inclusive of income tax and national insurance with just £14 in BiK tax and equates to savings of £13,920 over a four year period.
Inclusive of this is insurance, servicing and maintenance"

and

"141 companies have signed up to salary sacrifice with Octopus, making it available to 22,298 employees.

Some 15 companies are already live on the scheme, including Huel and Purplebricks, making it available to 1,491 employees across the UK."



So UK sales will remain strong in Q2? (should negate the recent loss of EV incentives ..) ?
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
6,672
23,547
Philadelphia, PA
Today is a good day because I'm fully deployed with options out to mid-June and cashless, so I don't need to stare at the TSLA options chain all day. Now we wait! Maybe even do some of the work I've been putting off the last three weeks?

Macros looking REAL good today and rates back down at 1.65% on the 10yr. Good enough day as any to see the mega-snap-back,
 

kbM3

Active Member
May 22, 2017
1,852
9,371
Orlando
Exactly.....the EV infrastructure bill is really going straight to Tesla. Tesla is the only one with production capacity now and only one that will be expanding rapidly for the next 2-3 years. So it pretty much guarantees demand while letting Tesla increase their prices by 2-3k, which will easily help them demolish EPS estimates for the next 2-3 years. Meanwhile, the EV infrastructure plan won't even help other auto makers that much for the first 2-3 years because they aren't invested today in the necessary production expansion.
I know we've spoken about the re-introduction of the Federal Tax Credit not having much of an effect on Tesla (it doesn't enable them to produce any more, and they're already selling them faster than they can produce them)... But assuming Tesla doesn't raise prices in response too much, it could have an interesting distributional effect on the supply that is sold. If the Model 3/Y suddenly becomes $10,000 cheaper with a point-of-sale rebate, it could enable a lot more middle class families to afford one; and could build good brand-loyalty toward a larger percentage of people into the future for when Tesla becomes less supply constrained. After all, we know it's hard to go back to driving any other vehicle once you've tried a Tesla.

$10K is a GIGANTIC demand lever.

If Tesla were to do nothing, the wait times would immediately go out to several months.

I also can’t see them raising prices by $10K. The negative publicity that would generate would be voluminous:)

So the question becomes how much can be passed through to customers, without growing the order books too much on 3, Y and Cybertruck? I would guess even passing through $7k as @StarFoxisDown! suggests would still cause wait times that are too long.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla handles it. Removal of SR versions as someone suggested? Forced bundling of FSD? Some price increases? At least we can be assured any planned price cuts would no longer occur:)

I would also guess between now and then, more people might start giving Tesla non-refundable $100 deposits for Cybertrucks to lock in the current price.
 

UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
583
4,966
Northampton, England
So UK sales will remain strong in Q2? (should negate the recent loss of EV incentives ..) ?

Short Answer: YES - "UK sales will remain strong in Q2"

EV incentive changes are a negative, particularly for private buyers.

EV tax/incentives for companies are really very good - low Benefit In Kind, lower NI (Social) and income taxes on any salary sacrifice and for companies who buy cars - 100% of the cost can be claimed in depreciation as a First Year Allowance (when sold, the residual becomes a profit).

Useful for large employers eg NHS and small one-man band companies (eg IT contractors).

Company ICE cars were almost dead according to many, whole accounting firms servicing small companies didn't know how to do it. EV company cars are going to be popular as long as tax rules don't change
 

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