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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Seems Toyota realizes that writing is on the wall .. by 2030 they have no choice but to sell BEVs
Funny, I came to an entirely different conclusion from the statement; Seems Toyota is about to do too little too late becoming an afterthought.

8 million BEVs in 9 years, huh? That’s less than 1 million/year - so basically Tesla’s production this year x 9. While Tesla’s production is going to be rapidly expanding at average of 50% by the time those 9 years pass.

Cute. Toyota becomes the Porsche production level of BEVs by 2030. Take a bow Toyota. 👏
 
Yup saw this come through this morning and I have no issue admitting I was wrong ☺️. I was tracking everything yesterday on my phone since I’m traveling.....could have sworn when I loaded up the cpca doc that it stated the year to date mention. But I obviously must have been confusing it with another doc/link I saw. Then I saw multiple people commenting in the 95,125 number which seemed to back up my memory of the doc.

In terms of production since the numbers we have are registration data and then export data, we don’t know the true production number because there could be plenty of cars in transit to outer portions of China. Similar to how Fremont ships out to East coast/Canada at the beginning of the quarters in addition to focusing on exports. California registration always sees a drastic drop in numbers in the first month of every quarter. I do wish Tesla China would issue monthly production numbers since China puts out their own numbers which can cause confusion like this since those number will always leave out cars in transit. We’ll just have to wait another month to see China registration number to know if there was significant amount of production in transit that wasn’t in these numbers
 
Funny, I came to an entirely different conclusion from the statement; Seems Toyota is about to do too little too late becoming an afterthought.

8 million BEVs in 9 years, huh? That’s less than 1 million/year - so basically Tesla’s production this year x 9. While Tesla’s production is going to be rapidly expanding at average of 50% by the time those 9 years pass.

Cute. Toyota becomes the Porsche production level of BEVs by 2030. Take a bow Toyota. 👏
Exactly. It's important to take each player's plans in context with their current niche. Toyota saying anything other than, "We're targeting top end markdhare at scale", means they're not serious.

Toyota wins with scale and efficiency, dipping their toes in 9 years too late is not a sincere plan from leadership. I refuse to think they won't eventually be a massive player in EVs, but they probably won't commit until it's too late to save ⅔ of their current marketshare and market cap.

Losing GM doesn't bother me in the least, but to see the likes of Ford and Toyota fade into obscurity is gonna be sad.
 
My post for the day:

1. Closing the browser in times like this—when you know the market is dumber than dumb—is helpful for maintaining sanity.

2. Elon’s approach has been “forget about PR. The media’s gonna pull their crap. Ignore it and execute. I was in this camp too until recently, when it became clear that executing clearly was not enough.

I now think Tesla could use a single PR person to rip a new hole in the media whenever needed. Rip into them. Show them how stupid they are. Embarass them with facts. Perhaps the embarassment will force them to move on. <s>Has anyone else thought of that before?</s>
That would have a positive effect on TSLA if TSLA was being pushed down by people that care about what the media is saying. In my eyes it clearly is not. TSLA is being pushed down by large institutions that are taking advantage of extremely low volume so they can buy back in at a much reduced price. They are preying on the small retail, media watching, public that are panic selling right now.

In my opinion a PR person or department would have little to no effect on what is going on with the stock price. Just my opinion though.

Dan
 
From the article :




So, theoretically, Tesla teams with existing landfill biogas electricity producers and provides the tracking of kWh generation at the site to kWh consumption at the vehicle, thus enabling inclusion into the program.

Landfills also seem like good sites for solar farms.
that's BRILLIANT... Closed landfills are in close proximity to large population centers, have a stigmatism about limited use, AND the resident population wouldn't mount a NIMB (Not In My Backyard) against converting a landfill into a solar farm.
 
Yup saw this come through this morning and I have no issue admitting I was wrong ☺️. I was tracking everything yesterday on my phone since I’m traveling.....could have sworn when I loaded up the cpca doc that it stated the year to date mention. But I obviously must have been confusing it with another doc/link I saw. Then I saw multiple people commenting in the 95,125 number which seemed to back up my memory of the doc.

In terms of production since the numbers we have are registration data and then export data, we don’t know the true production number because there couple be plenty of cars in transit to outer portions of China. Similar to how Fremont ships out to East coast/Canada at the beginning of the quarters in addition to focusing on exports. California registration always sees a drastic drop in numbers in the first month of every quarter. I do wish Tesla China would issue monthly production numbers since China puts out their own numbers which can cause confusion like this
The number will certainly never lineup completely, but we know 40k is out of the picture and we are on the lower side. I would say this also pretty much confirms a shutdown of some sort for the Y lines. It makes complete sense to me in that Y production down for a bit shaves off a lot from March. The lack of a hard end of quarter push pulls back on the 3 production a tad. Maybe some supply chain issues. To put this at 25ish. Could be 28k, could be 24k. Then operating like Freemont with the first month mostly consumed by exports. May's numbers will very likely jump back up in local sales and total numbers.
 
Source is 42How again.

Have to say if the sold number includes export, that's the dumbest way to count Teslas sold and results in double counting of exported cars ever since China started exporting.

Also those are some high Y numbers with a 2 week shutdown.

It is directly lining up and 42How might end up a source to watch if they have this right.

It could quite easily be that some of March's Y production was sold in April inflating the insurance numbers. Could also be production efficiencies gained. Probably a mixture of both. It is going to be interesting to see how the Y ramp in May/June goes.
 
Source is 42How again.

Have to say if the sold number includes export, that's the dumbest way to count Teslas sold and results in double counting of exported cars ever since China started exporting.

Also those are some high Y numbers with a 2 week shutdown.
Haha that is true.....this source is the same source that was claiming the model y shutdown so in actuality, this doesn’t confirm anything. I’m not going to comment anymore though because it’s way too hard and time consuming to track multiple data sources with only a phone and keep track of things 😉

And now that you mention it, is Model Y being exported a all from China?
 
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Of course, the media never puts anything into perspective, if it will help today's headline look more dramatic and click-worthy. Here is a headline from one year ago:
I'm guessing there will be a similar headline this time next year... but Tesla will still be selling more cars than ever before.
 
It is directly lining up and 42How might end up a source to watch if they have this right.

It could quite easily be that some of March's Y production was sold in April inflating the insurance numbers. Could also be production efficiencies gained. Probably a mixture of both. It is going to be interesting to see how the Y ramp in May/June goes.
It’s directly lining up because it’s all coming from the same source. There will be other official China data that comes out in a few days that will either solidify this person or completely debunk them.

I still think the model y shutdown rumor is extremely questionable. Sorry but there’s no way the y lines shut down for 2 weeks and not a word gets out for weeks about it.
 
It’s directly lining up because it’s all coming from the same source. There will be other official China data that comes out in a few days that will either solidify this person or completely debunk them.

I still think the model y shutdown rumor is extremely questionable. Sorry but there’s no way the y lines shut down for 2 weeks and not a word gets out for weeks about it.
We know about 2 day shut downs, new year shut downs, inspection shut downs, covid shut downs,..even if a particular press is shut down. But Y 2 week shut down no FUD media picked it up but instead making up BS the last few weeks? I expect better out of them.
 
The number will certainly never lineup completely, but we know 40k is out of the picture and we are on the lower side. I would say this also pretty much confirms a shutdown of some sort for the Y lines. It makes complete sense to me in that Y production down for a bit shaves off a lot from March. The lack of a hard end of quarter push pulls back on the 3 production a tad. Maybe some supply chain issues. To put this at 25ish. Could be 28k, could be 24k. Then operating like Freemont with the first month mostly consumed by exports. May's numbers will very likely jump back up in local sales and total numbers.
In terms of production.....supply constraints are the only reason the 25k number is more likely than 40k. I still find the source and approach of suddenly changing the interpretation of the cpca report language to be very suspicious. I won’t be one bit surprised if in a week or so, other China data points come out that debunk this whole thing. But I’m fine just waiting quietly on the sidelines until then
 
If I were to change my TD account type to non-margin, when would be the best time to do it, just before a squeeze? Is now a good time?
I didn't know they loaned my TSLA shares out, and this kinda bothers me. I haven't traded margin in a long time, and likely won't as the world is essentially unknown today for me.
Margin accounts have benefits beyond actually borrowing on margin in a long term sense. If you have a cash account you will run into good faith violations if you are not careful with your timing of trades.
 
It’s directly lining up because it’s all coming from the same source. There will be other official China data that comes out in a few days that will either solidify this person or completely debunk them.

I still think the model y shutdown rumor is extremely questionable. Sorry but there’s no way the y lines shut down for 2 weeks and not a word gets out for weeks about it.

Autoju and CARTAC are both in the high 11k and the sources of the data... 42How is just reporting it.

I think you're grasping there. The simplest explanation from going from over 10k to 5k is a shutdown to tweak the lines. Going from 10k to 5k on a production rate would actually be a worse news and more concerning. Remember the Y isn't being exported from Shanghai too, so none of the 14k exports are Y.