Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

Just came back from the options market. There's a bunch of options mispriced for todays unveil. For one thing. They are mispricing the volatility of such an event. A risk worth taking in my opinion.

 

[EVMeister]

If you don't ever need to road trip (charging sucks), and don't mind the subpar infotainment system, there's nothing wrong with I-Pace, and you shouldn't feel bad. Still runs on electrons, performance is Tesla-esque, etc. But if you actually want Model 3, why are you locking yourself into an 18-month lease?

A good question. It's because my Renault ZOE had to go back (end of lease) at the start of the year. I'm currently on a fairly expensive short-term Nissan LEAF lease until the I-PACE arrives. The Model 3 isn't available in the UK yet and the I-PACE lease was a stupidly good offer that was difficult to refuse (£400 /mo, no deposit). I think it will be an amazing car to drive compared to what I'm used to and I really can't grumble at the price. I won't feel hard done-by going into a Model 3 afterwards though, I'm sure.

Oh and regarding road trips. The I-PACE is only giving me 5000 miles per year, so I don't intend to do many. I'm also very aware of how the non-Supercharger networks are in the UK (annoying!) The nice thing about the Tesla will be that I do intend to do more road tripping with it, without mileage restrictions. And will make full use of the lovely Supercharger network. So definitely something to look forward to there.

 

[humbaba]

Speaking of, I’ve been following the reddit threads regarding that.

Have you seen an actual improvement in wh/mi? Im curious if this is an actual efficiency improvement

I've only got an MR, but that would be ~5% increase, or ~10Wh/mi reduction. I would think it would largely be lost in the noise -- the efficiency I get driving to/from work varies a whole lot more than 5%.

My bet is that Tesla slightly increased the limit of 100% charge against the whole pack. When this was announced, along with the acceleration improvements, there was a comment about the changes being done after learning more about impact on battery. Which I take to mean that they allow a faster drain (better acceleration) having determined that it still falls within the expected deterioration. Similarly, that the LR range was bumped by cutting slightly into the battery buffer as the degradation stats indicated there was more headroom than their first, conservative estimates. And the MR not getting the ~5% range boost I attribute to either their initial estimates being closer to observed, or they don't have enough data yet.

 

[printf42]

Not sure whether this has been posted, but I recommend people who have time to read for a good laugh:
Tesla Scandal: Elon Musk Falsely Accused Safety Whistleblower Of Mass Shooting
Tesla Scandal: Elon Musk Falsely Accused Safety Whistleblower Of Mass Shooting

It somehow appeared on my Robinhood news feed.
Then in the article they said it was a tip(might be false) from “a friend of Tripp’s”.
How they come up with the title of this piece is beyond my imagination.
Literally no news in the article, they even tried to defend Tripp, so, just for a good laugh.
They’re trying very hard.

 

[lklundin]

Strong hints this is the first of several loans. There was talk of "Chinese banks" and this is from only one Chinese bank, singular.

OT

I am going to try to stop posting here (the investor forum) for a while. I do so out of an unhealthy compulsion to provide information to people. On the whole, people don't want to learn anything which disagrees with their preconceptions, so I really shouldn't. I've been told this by many wise people: let people believe whatever nonsense they want to believe; practically nobody wants to learn anything, and it'll just be frustration to explain things to 99% of people. They're right. Almost everything I've posted for the last year is a repeat of something which has been posted before, usually many times, by myself or others; I'm just seeing the same misapprehensions over and over again, and there's really no point in discussion. If I do start posting, I shouldn't be doing so.

Thanks and massive props to Brian45011 for being the only person here to disagree with me who really proved me wrong.
Thanks to jbcarioca for genuinely insightful responses on *all* occasions, even to content which moderators are deleting.
Thanks to those who have collected data.
Thanks to many of the rest of you for being interested in analysis.

I'll still be lurking and reading. I just won't post.

Nerode N signing out.

You lack objectivity, so I will point out that it is my impression that your postings here (and not only the financial ones) are deemed highly insightful.

So I think after some time you should reconsider your choice.

PS. Sorry to prove your point, by effectively disagreeing with your above post.

 

[printf42]

Tesla on Twitter
Model Y full shape showed in Tesla tweet.

• Appears to be a Model Y under tight cover.
• Shows full side profile, rear much like Model X.
• Now the exterior is almost certain so Tesla better have some interior or software surprise in the hat to pull out at the event.

 

[brian45011]

Neroden, I must have missed this. Why are no zev sales expected? I had actually assumed Tesla would sell as many as possible in Q1.

In the 2nd half of 2018, Tesla reported profits of $53 million in ZEV credits but $231 million in CAFE/GHG credit sales. Credit sales will not accrue from 1Q19 deliveries outside of North America. Tesla apparently has more discretion in when it decides to book ZEV profits, i.e. the CAFE/GHG sales may be subject an agreement equivalent to an "output contract" while the ZEV sales are sold in occasional, bilaterally negotiated transactions.

Some speculate that if net income for 1Q19 is beyond the pale, it will become a "kitchen sink" quarter with ZEV sales saved for greater impact later.

 

[schonelucht]

Yep, and I read it somewhere that the total Chinese loan offer was $3b, but cannot find the reference.

Don't bother looking any further. That reference is as wrong as wrong can be.

 

[AndyH]

Tesla on Twitter
Model Y full shape showed in Tesla tweet.
View attachment 386341

• Appears to be a Model Y under tight cover.
• Shows full side profile, rear much like Model X.
• Now the exterior is almost certain so Tesla better have some interior or software surprise in the hat to pull out at the event.

Can this really be 7 seats?

 

[Tim S]

Speaking of, I’ve been following the reddit threads regarding that.

Have you seen an actual improvement in wh/mi? Im curious if this is an actual efficiency improvement

I don't pay close attention to wh/mi, sorry. And I rarely charge to 100%. I did the night after the update and it actually went to 321. Last time I fully charged I believe it went to 306. I got my car last May, vin #19xxx.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ouch, I hope it doesn't look like a Prius.

Um what? Even with the wrap on it.....it looks nothing like a prius

 

[KarenRei]

Macro news: UK parliament just voted to delay Brexit.

(Please, no "Brexit good" / Brexit bad" discussion. Please!)

 

[Krugerrand]

I thought the stimulus loan was started during the Bush administration to save Ford (they received $5B, which they never paid back, compared to Tesla's $500M, which was paid back). The money, both Ford and Tesla, was actually disbursed during the Obama administration.

True. Nissan also got 1.4B. No idea if they paid it back.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Ouch, I hope it doesn't look like a Prius.

Huh? Doesn't look anything like a Prius – completely different proportions.

It's basically a smaller MX with M3 body design cues. Exactly what we expected.

 

[Nocturnal]

Can this really be 7 seats?

It's possible. My Toyota Highlander was a 7 seater and it was 191". Model 3 is 185", so a 10% longer car might be able to squeeze in 7.

 

[ZachF]

Just a few hours guys....

 

[Lift]

We will soon see if these two photos are of the same car...

 

[lklundin]

So once production capabilities ramp to greater speed, a more aggressive educational campaign by Tesla may be helpful.

How much did Henry Ford spend on advertisement up to let's say 1929?

I ask because Ford's growth in the early days seem to be reproduced by Tesla.

 

[printf42]

We will soon see if these two photos are of the same car...

View attachment 386348

Same building same spot at least

 

[SteveG3]

Chiming in on the advertising discussion — I’d much rather see any extra funds poured into R&D instead of advertising.

Elon has said “pace of innovation is all that matters in the long run.” Twitter

The speed and quality of Tesla’s innovations have been the key to its long-term success. To build on that success it has to keep investing in innovation and product development. There are enormous opportunities and demands for R&D investment, including:

Battery chemistry, cell and pack design
Design and development of Model Y, pickup, Semi, Roadster, less expensive sedan
Manufacturing robotics, software and AI for auto, batteries, storage and solar products
Inverter technology and manufacturing for auto, solar and storage products
Self driving technology
Solar panels and solar roof technology and materials
Megacharger and SuperCharger technology and manufacturing
Etc

Tesla’s R&D has generated tremendous value and competitive advantages in so many critical areas. If extra opex is to be spent, as a long-term investor I’d MUCH rather see it invested in innovation than advertising.

When Tesla gets its innovative products to market it has no trouble finding customers.

We don't need an advertising campaign, but, a Michael Lewis book could help.

Can't say I blame Michael if he waits until after the fossil fuel tantrum (amplified/distributed breathlessly via corporate mass media) is over to write a book... who'd want to get in the crosshairs of this massive scale firefight.