Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tenable]

Hell yes, thank you.


OK, fair 'nuff. I'm quite sure they aren't going to get +267M of Q1 profit. There are no ZEV sales expected, product mix is similar to Q4, Energy hasn't grown much (cell-starved), and there are one-time costs; I don't see how they can get there.

Neroden, I must have missed this. Why are no zev sales expected? I had actually assumed Tesla would sell as many as possible in Q1.

 

[EVNow]

Here in Chicagoland during recent years more people have progressively come to realize that Tesla and electric cars exist. But for a great many their knowledge remains quite weak. In conversations, they perpetually bring up range anxiety, with little understanding of the ease of home charging and Supercharging. There are still not enough Tesla owners here for a large number of people to learn from them.

So once production capabilities ramp to greater speed, a more aggressive educational campaign by Tesla may be helpful.

Yes - Tesla should advertise.

Just that it shouldn't be conventional TV advertising and it should be factual i.e. not like other auto adverts.

 

[Nocturnal]

Small data point I forgot to mention, Tesla Brussels told me that they're taking 45-60 orders per week from NEW customers, i.e. not reservation holders...

On that matter, I still have €1000 on an M3 reservation, would be nice to get the option to shift it to a MY if desired.

I have to imagine they will allow that. Now, will that be as easy as it should? Probably not. Tesla is not great at that's sort of thing.

Oddly enough I looked at the superchargers in Nebraska recently while talking to someone about EV’s who’s from there and you are right, north South coverage is very poor and I would understand why someone wouldn’t want an EV there. More to my point is that more often than not when I talk with someone about EVs outside of the Bay Area It’s usually followed with “yea but.....” filled with some line that is completely misinformed. (For reference I live in CA and do not work in the tech industry)

Which I understand if you don’t have a friend/neighbor who has one, or already have a prominent interest in getting one, you probably will be misinformed. Especially when even liberal news sources like the Washington post have opinion pieces bashing electric cars. Stating the Standard range but saying it on average costs 43k.

Here in KC it's a pretty good setup. There are really only a few places to go from here unless you are headed into the wilderness. West to Denver there is an SC every 100 miles so that's easy. East to St. Louis is the same. South towards Nebraska is lighter but doable (haven't made that trip myself). North has coverage but I don't think people go there, just if they are passing through.

For a while I've been agreeing with people that a Tesla isn't great if you live in the country. On a recent trip to Denver where I rented a cabin though I reconsidered that. There was an SC nearby but I didn't need to use it. I just plugged into the wall outlet at the cabin. If I had the right adapter I could have plugged into the dryer outlet even. So traveling through the country can be hard with a Tesla, but if you live in a remote area, electric may actually be superior to gas. You don't need to find a gas station, you just charge at home. As long as there are SCs on the main routes back into civilization you are good to go.

Gas stations are already a pretty tough business. As EVs keep growing we will see more stations closing down. Once gas stations become a little harder to find that will make EVs even more compelling.

 

[scaesare]

Strong hints this is the first of several loans. There was talk of "Chinese banks" and this is from only one Chinese bank, singular.

OT

I am going to try to stop posting here (the investor forum) for a while. I do so out of an unhealthy compulsion to provide information to people. On the whole, people don't want to learn anything which disagrees with their preconceptions, so I really shouldn't. I've been told this by many wise people: let people believe whatever nonsense they want to believe; practically nobody wants to learn anything, and it'll just be frustration to explain things to 99% of people. They're right. Almost everything I've posted for the last year is a repeat of something which has been posted before, usually many times, by myself or others; I'm just seeing the same misapprehensions over and over again, and there's really no point in discussion. If I do start posting, I shouldn't be doing so.

Thanks and massive props to Brian45011 for being the only person here to disagree with me who really proved me wrong.
Thanks to jbcarioca for genuinely insightful responses on *all* occasions, even to content which moderators are deleting.
Thanks to those who have collected data.
Thanks to many of the rest of you for being interested in analysis.

I'll still be lurking and reading. I just won't post.

Nerode N signing out.

My disagree vote stems from disappointment. I've appreciated and learned a lot of financial good stuff from your posts. And even your (strongly entrenched lol) opinions on the effectiveness of car/tunnel efficiency has bee a good catalyst for the conversation.

So while I suspect your 99% assertion is probably pretty accurate... I'd like to think that a disproportionate number of the remainder hang out here.

So even if there are some folks who frustrate you, (this IS the internet after all), I suspect there's a significantly greater number who find the interchange amongst the reasonable and knowledgeable members of this forum quite enlightening... even if they may be largely silent.

I hope you'll reconsider. But even if not, thanks for all the fish!

-Steve

 

[Nocturnal]

Yes - Tesla should advertise.

Just that it shouldn't be conventional TV advertising and it should be factual i.e. not like other auto adverts.

100% agree. The other EVs have the typical fluff feel good commericals. Telsa ads should be very concrete and simple.

"You don't need to stop for gas ever, so you save 20 minutes a week! No oil changes ever. When you want to travel across the country you can. An 8 hour trip in a gas car will take you 9 hours. (show a family stopping to charge and having a relaxed lunch)". These shouldn't be TV spots, people who watch actual TV are not prime Tesla buyers. We need adds on youtube etc.

Advertising isn't all or nothing. They don't need to spend billions. A few million here and there would help. Heck, let's get real creative and setup a platform for Telsa owners to share stories and experiences. That would be cheap and highly effective.

 

[EVNow]

OK, fair 'nuff. I'm quite sure they aren't going to get +267M of Q1 profit. There are no ZEV sales expected, product mix is similar to Q4, Energy hasn't grown much (cell-starved), and there are one-time costs; I don't see how they can get there.

I think there is < 5% chance of a GAAP profit. let alone something that large. I think Q2 will be about even (profit < 50M) and from Q3 we should see 100M or so profit. I don't think we'll see 300M profit until China GF comes online, so probably Q1 '20.

 

[AndyH]

The thing is this: while it might be tempting to think that advertising would change this, unless it changed blogs and headlines it wouldn't have any real effect on him. In fact, I don't think advertising even addresses the issue. Whether they are conscious of it or not, I believe most people view advertising as a tainted information source. So when it affirms what they already think, they believe it. When it goes against what they already think, they dismiss it.

The biggest benefit of advertising isn't directly correcting FUD. MSM are dependent on advertising as their main revenue. If all companies behaved like Tesla then the MSM would dissappear. It's not just that selling FUD is lucrative. Tesla are also threatening their very existence.

 

[Joe F]

RE education on EV's: If I didn't hate bumper stickers, I'd make one that read:

I spend 5 seconds a day refueling my car. You?

 

[uselesslogin]

Here in KC it's a pretty good setup. There are really only a few places to go from here unless you are headed into the wilderness. West to Denver there is an SC every 100 miles so that's easy. East to St. Louis is the same. South towards Nebraska is lighter but doable (haven't made that trip myself). North has coverage but I don't think people go there, just if they are passing through.

So FWIW we are north of you, not south. But, you know, our state isn't for everyone. There are actually 2 Superchargers between Omaha and KC so that is one of the easier trips. It is 180 miles or so to the Sioux Falls Supercharger so we definitely need one in Sioux City for trips to the Black Hills. It is also very hard to visit northern Nebraska since all the SCs are on 80.

 

[Nocturnal]

So FWIW we are north of you, not south. But, you know, our state isn't for everyone. There are actually 2 Superchargers between Omaha and KC so that is one of the easier trips. It is 180 miles or so to the Sioux Falls Supercharger so we definitely need one in Sioux City for trips to the Black Hills. It is also very hard to visit northern Nebraska since all the SCs are on 80.

lol, geography fail. I'm going to blame lack of coffee and the fact that I'm from the East Coast so the Midwest isn't intuitive to me. For some reason I always feel like Nebraska is south of me. I don't know why.

RE education on EV's: If I didn't hate bumper stickers, I'd make one that read:

I spend 5 seconds a day refueling my car. You?

I've had several arguments about that with gas people. They swear gas fueling takes 2 minutes, ignoring the time it takes to pull off the road, assuming you can always find a station on your route, dealing with lines etc.

When I talk about charging to newbies I always say something like " I save 20 minutes a week by not refueling. So when my twice a year 10 hour road trip takes an extra hour that doesn't bother me". ​

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Yes - Tesla should advertise.

Just that it shouldn't be conventional TV advertising and it should be factual i.e. not like other auto adverts.

Yea and obviously not now (they have several demand levers left to pull) but maybe in a year.

Could be a simple YouTube video ad 5-15 seconds that states something like: 310 miles of range, shows the supercharger map with locations, and shows the gigafactory and states made in America.

 

[jerry33]

Neroden, I must have missed this. Why are no zev sales expected? I had actually assumed Tesla would sell as many as possible in Q1.

I'd suggest it depends on the goal. Selling ZEVs is done to gain money. Not selling ZEVs means that other manufacturers won't be able to sell as many high margin gas hogs, and will either have to sell BEVs and hybrids (expensive R&D) or low profit econoboxes.

 

[schonelucht]

I think there is < 5% chance of a GAAP profit. let alone something that large. I think Q2 will be about even (profit < 50M) and from Q3 we should see 100M or so profit. I don't think we'll see 300M profit until China GF comes online, so probably Q1 '20.

Why only such a small profit for Q2?

 

[RobStark]

Trump is trying to rescind California waiver that gives the State the right to setup ZEV program.

Trump administration is likely to fail. But it might succeed.

If Trump administration succeeds then ZEV credits are worthless.

Ergo, OEMs want to wait and see before buying anymore ZEVs. They all have enough for this year.

 

[jerry33]

So FWIW we are north of you, not south. But, you know, our state isn't for everyone. There are actually 2 Superchargers between Omaha and KC so that is one of the easier trips. It is 180 miles or so to the Sioux Falls Supercharger so we definitely need one in Sioux City for trips to the Black Hills. It is also very hard to visit northern Nebraska since all the SCs are on 80.

Or to visit Nebraska when coming from the south. Selina and Topeka are the nearest and each one is 200 miles away from Omaha or Lincoln.

 

[Remus]

lol, geography fail. I'm going to blame lack of coffee and the fact that I'm from the East Coast so the Midwest isn't intuitive to me. For some reason I always feel like Nebraska is south of me. I don't know why.

I've had several arguments about that with gas people. They swear gas fueling takes 2 minutes, ignoring the time it takes to pull off the road, assuming you can always find a station on your route, dealing with lines etc.

When I talk about charging to newbies I always say something like " I save 20 minutes a week by not refueling. So when my twice a year 10 hour road trip takes an extra hour that doesn't bother me". ​

I often look at the long lines at costco gas station and wonder, what the f is wrong with people?

 

[lklundin]

Given that the so-called whistleblower was actually an industrial saboteur, Bloomberg is committing trade libel and should be sued.

Has a court agreed to Tesla's allegations against Martin Tripp yet?

 

[Tim S]

You bring up a really valid point, MOST people (in areas like the Midwest) will be far more swayed toward an EV by the grass roots campaign of a friend/neighbor having one and them checking it out. It’s more trusting than the media.

But there are also people like my mom who lives in CA, liberal (not that it matters but it is a more likely target), who is looking at purchasing a new car and Tesla isn’t at the top of the list because of “yea but....” reasons.

I think there are simple facts that people don’t know, like they have models with 310 miles of range or that there is a thing called a supercharger network. Etc.

My Model 3 LR RWD now has 325 miles of range after a software update this week

 

[KarenRei]

Has a court agreed to Tesla's allegations against Martin Tripp yet?

Case is ongoing. That said, Tripp has moved to dismiss his own counterclaim about emotional distress.

 

[AudubonB]

Re Ron Baron's exposure on the several-times herein mentioned CNBC's Squawk Box this morning:

He very obviously was cut off at the ~8m14s clip-end that I have been able to see. Was anyone here able to listen to more than that, did that latter portion provide useful insight, and is there a link somewhere?