Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

As an investor, I don't try to micro-manage the small details of the company. My biggest consideration is "Do I trust managements competence?". If the answer is yes, then I don't second guess them because they are privy to literally hundreds of pertinent details that I don't even have legal or practical access to. I don't know why management bought Bitcoin but I trust they had a reason and it's probably one we can't see. If the answer is no (that I don't trust management to be competent) then I don't invest.

Competent management is the most important criteria before I make an investment. If my opinion of management changes, I dump the stock without hesitation. I have no place in my portfolio for companies run by people I don't trust to do the right thing as well as being better than average in the competence department. That doesn't mean they never make mistakes, all management does.

The fact we know that all management makes mistakes doesn't mean someone on the outside looking in has enough information to know that a recent decision was a mistake. If the management is competent, they had a reason for making the decision they made. And without knowing that reason, it is impossible to judge it as a productive move or a mistake, especially based on such superficial things as whether it immediately helped or hurt the immediate quarter's results.

I play the long game because that's the most profitable way for the individual investor to use the market to their financial advantage. It's also a lot easier than second-guessing every little move and trying to micro-manage a huge corporation that has considerations we can't even see.

People can always invest in that other company where the CEO doesn't post memes on Twitter, they don't buy BTC, they don't make mistakes, but they move fast, with high levels of innovation, and great products at good margins . Well they could, if that company existed....

When Tesla and Elon make mistakes, they learn something, and they work hard to put it right, that hard work ensures they remember what they learned.
When they over promise, they work hard to make the target date, and they work hard to get the product right.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Just a reminder of how much Tesla Supercharger makes a difference for life with an EV.

This guy is a gear head with all kinds of cool cars. He has 2.3M subscribers and rarely share any car that doesn’t turn heads.

He started the day trying to show how much EV charging infrastructure had improved over the years.

Unfortunately, he drives a Taycan, the first charging station have 2 out of 4 stalls out of order, he had to wait for a smallish car to fishing charging, and when he finally plugged in, it throws error saying the car detected problem in the middle of charging and only got to 51%, he unplugged and replugged 3 times and still doesn’t work, tried to head to another station and same story, only charges up to 54% then stopped.

He end up showing the viewer how the EV charging infrastructure(for none-Tesla cars) is broken today.

There is not a single mention of Tesla Supercharger in the video, possibly he never drove a Tesla and didn’t know what we all know, that how much different that experience would have been.

I generally like Out of Spec electric road trip YouTubes, but the thing I find unrealistic is that they keep such a positive attitude when those kind of charging failures continually occur. I would be livid.

I can only imagine the reaction from Tesla drivers if charging errors of that magnitude started happening. It’s the number one reason I would never recommend a non-Tesla EV to anyone at this time.

It also demonstrates the extreme value that an "open" Supercharger network could represent (assuming it could maintain reliability). After a few of those bad charging experiences, a $500 adapter and surcharge might look very attractive.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I'm pretty jealous that F-150s can serve as backup battery generators for homes and, despite hearing the logic against it in Battery Day, still feel it's a valid option the owners should have for the wide ranging situational utility it can provide.

If it turns out that a lot of F150 buyers end up using the option I'm sure Tesla will create a version of their power electronics that can support it. It's not a question of Tesla's capability to create the feature, it's driven by saving cost on features that have so far generally been seen as unnecessary.

 

[Chenkers]

Futures are currently up 0.5%, TSLA is currently up in very early pre-market, the 10-year is flatish and Bitcoin is climbing out of its dip. Without as many head-winds today, it should be interesting to see where Tesla wants to head this week.

 

[Johann Koeber]

No trading in Frankfurt because of holiday.

So we have to wait for US pre-markets for an indication of where we are going today.

 

[UkNorthampton]

As silly as it sounds, I find planning and executing Supercharger stops to be a significantly enjoyable part of the many cross-country trips I've taken over the past few years. I could never gin up any positive emotional response for gasoline stops. OK, maybe periodic relief. But now, every new far-flung Supercharger opening (and I do check routinely, supercharge.info) evokes as desire for a road trip. What a hugely important part of the product I was not expecting.

M3LR

On a recent 250 mile round trip (plus driving while there, plus a bit of silly acceleration with new-to-Tesla passengers - so might as well equate it to around 300 miles steady progress), I was inefficiently driving (charge, not time) for a fair bit with a heavy right foot.

So I ended up with a negative predicted return charge. I enjoyed eeking out the charge that remained from minus to plenty (knowing I could charge at home). It wasn't onerous, mostly at speed limit/traffic flow when I felt confident, I just spent the first part of the RETURN journey at truck speed (60-65mph), upped it to 70mph/std traffic speeds after confidence restored. Saved me a supercharger stop.

It felt like a game.

I've had to do the same with diesels on client visits... do I slow down or stop for fuel? At rush hour, a 15 minute diesel stop (getting off/on motorway, fueling, paying) can end up costing 30 minutes or more if done at the wrong side of a junction near to peak congestion time. Sometimes better to slow down, slipstream trucks, avoid worse traffic congestion & refuel after visit.

When driving diesels/petrols, I needed to fuel every day just in case I got back late on next trip & couldn't fuel up or got back too late for commitments. I couldn't quite trust the car for 2 days without fueling. At least with an EV, I know I'll have full range the next day. I don't do that exact journey any more, but I suspect EV is less hassle overall than petrol, possibly diesel with that kind of usage.

 

[elliott82]

No trading in Frankfurt because of holiday.

So we have to wait for US pre-markets for an indication of where we are going today.

Tradegate is trading, no?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Can’t stand that the TSLA SP is being driven by the price of BTC right now. This is ridiculous.

Wonder if Elon considered that a purchase of any size of BTC would allow the markets to act as if the fate of TSLA and BTC are inextricably intertwined.

Because that is the nonsense we are dealing with short term.

I would like for this crypto TSLA connection to go away.

that bitcoin-crypto connection might be irritating but the most irritating part is my

I wish they never got into bitcoin but personal opinions aside given btc current price its basically even from purchase. A far cry from lighting it on fire.

creating an efficient Teslacoin and mining it with Tesla GPUs would fit into the vision of accelerating the world to sustainable energy. Bitcoin coal mining became a liability for the planet. BTC holding is similar to EXXON holding.

 

[traxila]

A little show of life today from TSLA could go a long way:

The 200 DMA sits at 591.07 and at this point is acting as resistance. If TSLA can finish above that point perhaps it can begin to function as support again and allow us to go test the 50 DMA at 667. The alternative is the lower BB, which sits at 530.

We have had a lot of technical damage the past few months, and some good price action here as well as continued strong support in the mid 500s might actually allow us to leave declines behind, macros willing. That and a few quarters of record sales.

Oh, BTW I really don’t know much about technical trading, so yeah, not an advice...

 

[Unpilot]

Just a reminder of how much Tesla Supercharger makes a difference for life with an EV.

This guy is a gear head with all kinds of cool cars. He has 2.3M subscribers and rarely share any car that doesn’t turn heads.

He started the day trying to show how much EV charging infrastructure had improved over the years.

Unfortunately, he drives a Taycan, the first charging station have 2 out of 4 stalls out of order, he had to wait for a smallish car to fishing charging, and when he finally plugged in, it throws error saying the car detected problem in the middle of charging and only got to 51%, he unplugged and replugged 3 times and still doesn’t work, tried to head to another station and same story, only charges up to 54% then stopped.

He end up showing the viewer how the EV charging infrastructure(for none-Tesla cars) is broken today.

There is not a single mention of Tesla Supercharger in the video, possibly he never drove a Tesla and didn’t know what we all know, that how much different that experience would have been.

Actually this is a significant problem.
Probably harms the mission more than we know.

We (EV drivers) need a fast standard way to charge.

Tesla can't do it alone.

 

[Maarten]

Interesting to see the huge amount of dollars that have been pumped into the USA economy and when.

 

[Singuy]

As an investor, I don't try to micro-manage the small details of the company. My biggest consideration is "Do I trust managements competence?". If the answer is yes, then I don't second guess them because they are privy to literally hundreds of pertinent details that I don't even have legal or practical access to. I don't know why management bought Bitcoin but I trust they had a reason and it's probably one we can't see. If the answer is no (that I don't trust management to be competent) then I don't invest.

Competent management is the most important criteria before I make an investment. If my opinion of management changes, I dump the stock without hesitation. I have no place in my portfolio for companies run by people I don't trust to do the right thing as well as being better than average in the competence department. That doesn't mean they never make mistakes, all management does.

The fact we know that all management makes mistakes doesn't mean someone on the outside looking in has enough information to know that a recent decision was a mistake. If the management is competent, they had a reason for making the decision they made. And without knowing that reason, it is impossible to judge it as a productive move or a mistake, especially based on such superficial things as whether it immediately helped or hurt the immediate quarter's results.

I play the long game because that's the most profitable way for the individual investor to use the market to their financial advantage. It's also a lot easier than second-guessing every little move and trying to micro-manage a huge corporation that has considerations we can't even see.

So I guess there are no specific examples of meaningful criticism from you on Tesla.

The problem with the "well we don't know enough so it might be a mistake or 4D chess" to critique stops the conversation. Tesla and Elon has many many meaningful mistakes people defended calling it 4d chess but at the end they were just mistakes. We shouldn't create the biggest echo chamber of all time giving management the benefit of the doubt 100% of the time solely because we are not insiders. I would say every time there's an outcry about something Elon or Tesla did where we felt it was a mistake turns out to be one. Not many time where there were huge negative reactions on this forum about something and it turned out to be 4d chess.

 

[CorneliusXX]

CATL are starting production of sodium ion batteries in a month or two. Hopefully that means more supply available to Tesla.

Tesla's Supplier CATL to Roll Out Sodium-Ion Battery, Reducing Import Reliance

 

[mongo]

Oversimplified perspective: Bitcoin purchase purely as advertising:
Even if Tesla's bitcoin purchase ultimately loses 90% of its value, they will still have spent less than the Top 5 OEMs each spend on advertising every year. Inclusive of the divestment event, they will continue to get media and social coverage over that time period with no additional effort or expense. If it retains around 65% of initial value for one year, they don't even make it in the top 10 spenders based on 2019 ad numbers.

 

[Boomer19]

tesla took ~ 8% of their cash balance and parked it in btc

could it be a mistake...yes.
but not the way many are making it out to be.

they could lose a billion + dollars on that investment. while i don’t subscribe to easy come easy go considering what we went through to get here, it’s hardly a panic scenario.

by the way the dollar lost about 10-11% to yuan and euro respectively, and 14% to pound in roughly the last year.

if it was parked in cash over that time gary black wouldn’t be posting about divesting from USD 3x a day on twitter

just relax everyone

the only thing that matters is making more kw’s

 

[Singuy]

I generally like Out of Spec electric road trip YouTubes, but the thing I find unrealistic is that they keep such a positive attitude when those kind of charging failures continually occur. I would be livid.

I can only imagine the reaction from Tesla drivers if charging errors of that magnitude started happening. It’s the number one reason I would never recommend a non-Tesla EV to anyone at this time.

It also demonstrates the extreme value that an "open" Supercharger network could represent (assuming it could maintain reliability). After a few of those bad charging experiences, a $500 adapter and surcharge might look very attractive.

The adapter plus surcharge on the Tesla network may only get people a lackluster charging speed as Tesla also needs to deal with potentially hundreds of different unique charging profiles and architecture. Charging at high amp is no joke and no charger want to be responsible for a fire or breaking electronics in the vehicle. The engineers for battery management is not sitting across the aisle from engineers writing code and specs for the superchargers unlike Tesla. This is why the extremely long handshake from EA and being extremely conservative by throwing out errors.

This is not a problem that can be fixed until car manufacturers start using some kind of unified infrastructure.

This is like the early days of computer hardware. Absolute a cluster F of incompatibility until IBM unified them. Same with GPUs until DirectX unifies them.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Actually this is a significant problem.
Probably harms the mission more than we know.

We (EV drivers) need a fast standard way to charge.

Tesla can't do it alone.

UK/Europe - I'm looking forward to when I visit friends they have 7.4KW charger I can use (& vice versa) - once they are common, domestic destination chargers will be very useful

 

[UncaNed]

Christ this forum has become wallstreet bets. I'm out. Enjoy the bitcoin chat.

Yeah, I was getting annoyed myself, @cliffski . I hope you're not out for too long, I appreciate your posts.

 

[mongo]

The adapter plus surcharge on the Tesla network may only get people a lackluster charging speed as Tesla also needs to deal with potentially hundreds of different unique charging profiles and architecture. Charging at high amp is no joke and no charger want to be responsible for a fire or breaking electronics in the vehicle. The engineers for battery management is not sitting across the aisle from engineers writing code and specs for the superchargers unlike Tesla. This is why the extremely long handshake from EA and being extremely conservative by throwing out errors.

This is not a problem that can be fixed until car manufacturers start using some kind of unified infrastructure.

This is like the early days of computer hardware. Absolute a cluster F of incompatibility until IBM unified them. Same with GPUs until DirectX unifies them.

SAE has a series of layered standards for the vehicle to communicate the charge current to DC providing equipment. The equipment does not needto know the vehicle's unique profile, rather the vehicle provides a dynamic request for the charge current.
J2847/2: Communication Between Plug-In Vehicles and Off-Board DC Chargers - SAE International
Incompatibility would result in lack of any charging, not over charging.

 

[Singuy]

Plaid now says deliveries in June for all new orders placed today.