Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

They can't make the Plaid+ now or anytime soon and they had too many people waiting for it instead of buying the Plaid now

That seems like a problem if they announced something and put it up on the configurator without figuring out how to build it first.

 

[Singuy]

They can't make the Plaid+ now or anytime soon and they had too many people waiting for it instead of buying the Plaid now. That's obviously the problem.

The waiting list for the LR refresh is ridiculously long. Shouldn't Tesla focus on pumping those out? I can't imagine the Plaid and plaid+ orders combined being all that great. Focusing so much selling Plaid right now by pulling crazy demand levers such as cancelling even better products seem odd.

 

[UltradoomY]

While waiting for our refresh X (LR not plaid) to be delivered sometime in February, I went ahead and bought 100 more chairs!
Yay

 

[15Peter20]

So like 95% of my watch list is green today, but TSLA is down by 2%. Seems out of wack to me?

I believe there was an announcement about the Plaid+, said announcement being generally regarded as a negative influence on the SP.

 

[thx1139]

500 miles+ range is needed for Brand dominance. It shows off battery tech, power train efficiency , and what your engineers can accomplish. Halo products are meant to do this for your company. Plaid+ may not be all that important if the Roadster or Cybertruck Plaid can take its place. But Tesla needs something that can show their engineering strengths when it comes to drive train because we know they are not winning any awards from build quality.

So take the 4680 cells meant Plaid+ and use in Roadster and release it with 600+ mile range in 2022. Ok then brand dominance achieved again.

 

[redan]

And in non-Plaid + news:

Tesla could soar 67% as it reaps the benefits of 'transformational consumer demand' for EVs in China, Wedbush says

The best days are still ahead for Tesla -not in the rear view mirror, Wedbush says.

In a Monday note, senior technology analyst Dan Ives said that despite near-term speed bumps, he remains firmly bullish on Tesla and the broader electric vehicle theme. He reiterated his "outperform" rating and price target of $1,000, a nearly 67% jump from current levels.

 

[Krugerrand]

You think selling the 3 with more range than an S is a good idea?

I wouldn’t complain. Smaller cars have tended to always get better mileage than bigger cars, all other stuffs being equal.

I’m calling it. Plaid will be the last variant and refresh for S. In another 7ish years when peeps start complaining again that it’s long in the tooth, Tesla will be pumping out millions of 3, Y, 2, truck and semi every year. Will have additional factories built and being built to the current ones and so many other things going on...S’s and Xs be transitioning to collector items.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Dit anyone else notice how many casting were spread around the site? There are stacks near the press and more in an adjoining lot. Also look at 2:30+ and it looks like a lot more stacked along the fence by the rail lines. Why would they produce hundreds/thousands(?) more than they need in the short-run? For shipping to another location? Planning for press shutdown for conversion to a different die? If so, new die for what part? Interested in your thoughts.

Who really knows, but maybe some Quality Engineer at Tesla requested 500 for 12 different experiments in metrology, safety, assembly, or whatever. We see so many because they are large, but I'm sure there were also a bunch of motor/inverter seals laying around before they got the seal right. Austin probably doesn't have a good lab yet (that's dry right now). Some of those castings may qualify for production... maybe all of them. I don't think there's a bigger part on the car, so someone came up with stacking them.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Q1: Wasn't the Plaid+ needed to beat the Porsche Taycan track time?
Q2: Does the Plaid still beat the Taycan?

 

[Freder Reeve]

This place has gone nuts with replies to the crybaby long-cons who overblow non-issues on purpose to tsla.
Elon didn't say tesla isn't going to make 500+mile cars (points to cybertruck 500+ range tri-motor first of all...)
He said he wants more of you rich brats to go ahead and buy the READY TO GO RIGHT F'ing NOW Plaid S.
Delays have taken a small toll on timing of releases and the primary uses for the 4680s are right around the corner now.
Stop pretending to be ignorant of reality just to make a big fuss. We get it you have bright shiny colorful feathers from all that wealth you are so cool! now.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

500 miles+ range is needed for Brand dominance.

Really? You don't think tesla already has brand dominance in EVs? Who does?

 

[StealthP3D]

For sure, gigapresses are hugely expensive but also hugely cost effective. It is not hard to imagine how many different parts can be eliminated in multiple vehicles by using the Gigapresses. Of course they're just learning how to do it.

That's a good point (that Tesla is just learning how to use the gigapresses). It seems many investors tend to focus on insignificant model variations and the exact configuration of whatever is considered the "halo car of the moment". These things are necessary details for the company to pay attention to but are hardly the things investors should spend time worrying about.

I think an under-appreciated risk factor is the ramp of the gigapresses. While I'm confident they will eventually get them dialed in such that they improve margins, I have not seen any clear signs they are there yet. This is the type of thing investors should focus on. Yes, we know they work fine on 1/4 castings but what is the current yield rate on 1/2 castings? We have no idea. Will the casting machines require a time-consuming upgrade to achieve high yields on the largest castings? Probably not but this is the kind of thing that can have an extended effect on the share price, not whether there will be a Plaid and a Plaid Plus or only a Plaid.

Look at the bigger picture items to appraise where the stock price is headed over the many months to a year or two timeframe. Efficiency of manufacturing high volume cars, progress on autonomy and speed of battery manufacturing ramp. You could add in solar ramp speed for additional upside potential. All this hand-wringing over halo cars, tweets, bitcoin, communication, etc. is silly. Look at the big picture. Most consumers would not blink an eye if Tesla told them the car they were about to purchase had the latest alkaline cells.

 

[woodisgood]

FACT: Plaid+, with a completely new battery, would require significant engineering resources.

FACT: Tesla is talent-constrained.

OPINION: Launch/ramp of CT (higher volume) and Semi (more integral to mission) should be Tesla’s top near-term engineering priority and top short-term 4680 destination.

REPORTED FACT: Plaid+ demand was fairly even with Plaid.

Given all of this, it is easy to see that Plaid+ was creating a Roadster 2-like situation. And given the resources and attention the S/X refresh has demanded - hardly a hobby or fun side project for nostalgia’s sake - it is easy to see that Plaid+ would get de-prioritized further and further into the future. Halo cars are important but not at the expense of the high-volume vehicles, which are going to be (and have explicitly been stated to be) Tesla’s top priority moving forward.

 

[lafrisbee]

I read all the honey on here this morning and it is so lacking in nutritional value that I am supplementing my morni.ng diet with a youtube live video with the Auburn University Athletic Director.
And he he just said (paraphrasing)
I don't listen or read social platforms. What happens on Monday isn't what Tuesday is doing but wednesday it could be Monday again. And the people that don't know talk about it on social platforms. And those that do know don't talk, they do.
So I will wait till I hear it from the Tesla AD on Thursday

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Q1: Wasn't the Plaid+ needed to beat the Porsche Taycan track time?
Q2: Does the Plaid still beat the Taycan?

1) No 2) Easily

 

[thx1139]

Q1: Wasn't the Plaid+ needed to beat the Porsche Taycan track time?
Q2: Does the Plaid still beat the Taycan?

No that was the Plaid. The Plaid+ was a new surprise that was announced at battery day.

 

[Singuy]

So take the 4680 cells meant Plaid+ and use in Roadster and release it with 600+ mile range in 2022. Ok then brand dominance achieved again.

It's not a big deal like I said. It's not loke they canceled other 500 mile+ projects. However Tesla is never known to cancel halo products even if the tech has problems(falcon doors, FSD AP1.). So this move is probably more of a manufacturing efficiency move. Elon, again should clarify before trying to convince people you don't need more than 400 mile range. That feels more like unable to get the tech out so therefore tell you that range is unnecessary.

 

[woodisgood]

No that was the Plaid. The Plaid+ was a new surprise that was announced at battery day.

Makes sense then that we’d give back some of the Battery Day gains. Oh wait...

 

[Nocturnal]

This place has gone nuts with replies to the crybaby long-cons who overblow non-issues on purpose to clusterf*ck tsla.
Elon didn't say tesla isn't going to make 500+mile cars (points to cybertruck 500+ range tri-motor first of all...)
He said he wants more of you rich brats to go ahead and buy the READY TO GO RIGHT F'ing NOW Plaid S.
Delays have taken a small toll on timing of releases and the primary uses for the 4680s are right around the corner now.
Stop pretending to be ignorant of reality just to make a big fuss. We get it you have bright shiny colorful feathers from all that wealth you are so cool! now stfu.

Seems pretty obvious to me. Tesla has been increasing range on their vehicles at what, 10% a year or so? Not worried at all about getting to 500 before Lucid makes more than a handful of cars.

FACT: Plaid+, with a completely new battery, would require significant engineering resources.

FACT: Tesla is talent-constrained.

OPINION: Launch/ramp of CT (higher volume) and Semi (more integral to mission) should be Tesla’s top near-term engineering priority and top short-term 4680 destination.

REPORTED FACT: Plaid+ demand was fairly even with Plaid.

Given all of this, it is easy to see that Plaid+ was creating a Roadster 2-like situation. And given the resources and attention the S/X refresh has demanded - hardly a hobby or fun side project for nostalgia’s sake - it is easy to see that Plaid+ would get de-prioritized further and further into the future. Halo cars are important but not at the expense of the high-volume vehicles, which are going to be (and have explicitly been stated to be) Tesla’s top priority moving forward.

That would be ok news for me. My CT has higher priority to me than a Plaid +. I'd rather wait and get a roadster anyway so I'll probably cancel the + reservation. (which was only looking feasible if we were going to move above 1k in SP anyway...)

 

[kbM3]

4680 may have worse charging capabilities. They will not be osborning demand. I suspect that 4680 cars with more range will be priced higher , or the ranges will be made very similar.

4680’s should have 20% better charging capability than existing 2170’s.

From Battery Day: 6X Power / 5X Energy = 1.2X Power Density.

However if they can apply tabless and other improvements to 18650’s or 2170’s, those should have even better power characteristics than 4680’s albeit more expensive and possibly less energy dense.