Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

that's my sense as well, but i don't know if i'd go so far as saying it is "obviously" what's happening. unfortunately we're all forced to speculate.

Incoming Zen:

Um, no. We aren’t forced to speculate. I’m not speculating. You (personally) CHOOSE to speculate. No, that’s not semantics or some minor definition discrepancy. Full blown self-inflicted manufactured upset because that’s the choice you’ve made today.

 

[berryja]

Enjoy the ride on the new track!

Nice flying!

 

[thx1139]

Seems pretty obvious to me. Tesla has been increasing range on their vehicles at what, 10% a year or so? Not worried at all about getting to 500 before Lucid makes more than a handful of cars.



That would be ok news for me. My CT has higher priority to me than a Plaid +. I'd rather wait and get a roadster anyway so I'll probably cancel the + reservation. (which was only looking feasible if we were going to move above 1k in SP anyway...)

Such a good point what will range of Model S LR be 1 year from now? What will range of all the others be? I suspect more then what we hear about on Thursday.

 

[Krugerrand]

That seems like a problem if they announced something and put it up on the configurator without figuring out how to build it first.

Really? Who are you and what have you done with the real Burrito Master!?

That seems literally what Tesla has done their whole history. Examples: FSD on configurator for years and they still haven’t figured out how to build it. Indeed, they’ve restarted that project a couple of times. Falcon doors weren’t figured out until the last hour prior to production and some might argue earlier vehicles didn’t have it figured out. CYBRTRCK on configurator long before production of an entirely new way to manufacture it was figured out. Semi on configurator before that vehicle completely figured out and last we see they’re still figuring it out.

 

[MABMAB]

The only concern I have, might be unfounded, is the + could have been cancelled due to delay in new cell production. Has there been a firm source claiming when new form cells will be used, other than Austin model Ys? My expectation is the cells in the plaid are the ones they have been using all along. But, to be clear, I do not know.

The 500+ mile range car was appealing to me, but the truck on order will do the same, if it does not get pulled off the market. I wonder if they will simplify the CT product offerings also. They have simplified offerings all along. They have to allocate batteries to the most good (for us investors).

Gary Black posted survey for owners. I found it limited in some choices. The entire Tesla car system is just far superior than anything offered on the market or rumored to be offered in the future. My spouse and I both feel there is no other vehicle in our future. People I know that have one love it, nobody goes back to the ICE age. The simplicity in the car, futuristic, just a big part of things, you know the overall design. Service is just INCREDIBLE, nothing has ever come close with any transportation. The built in integration of so many things, make the car easy to own and properly use as a tool. Updates OTA!

Munro has said that other ICE companies will get smaller, I have thought that for a long time.

Ability to pivot? In October 2013 a S caught fire after running over a hitch. In November TSLA put out a patent for an improvement. How Tesla May Beef Up Its Model S Battery Protection System
In March 2014 they started adding the improvement: Tesla Adds Titanium Underbody Shield and Aluminum Deflector Plates to Model S

To say that TSLA needs PR, ok, I get it some. But they stay on top of the core business, defend their position well, fight for the future! They have planned years out in the future, executing well along the way.

Enuf rambling.

 

[SOULPEDL]

No that was the Plaid. The Plaid+ was a new surprise that was announced at battery day.

I came across this article from Jan '21. Biggest difference to me would be the 100+ mi range on the Plaid+. Maybe it was simply deemed a waste of battery on the overall mission? Having dominance in the bag with Plaid... why bother with another variant? And maybe Tesla expected more from the competition, and realized they were competing with themselves - way, way out in front.

Tesla Model S Long Range Vs. Plaid Vs. Plaid+

The Model S Plaid variant specs are remarkable.

screenrant.com

 

[Pezpunk]

Incoming Zen:

Um, no. We aren’t forced to speculate. I’m not speculating. You (personally) CHOOSE to speculate. No, that’s not semantics or some minor definition discrepancy. Full blown self-inflicted manufactured upset because that’s the choice you’ve made today.

lol imagine getting mad at a guy for speculating about the powertrain of the $150,000 car he ordered. How DARE he!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The head of Tesla Energy has left the company. Not sure if pushed out or not.

 

[elasalle]

FACT: Plaid+, with a completely new battery, would require significant engineering resources.

FACT: Tesla is talent-constrained.

OPINION: Launch/ramp of CT (higher volume) and Semi (more integral to mission) should be Tesla’s top near-term engineering priority and top short-term 4680 destination.

REPORTED FACT: Plaid+ demand was fairly even with Plaid.

Given all of this, it is easy to see that Plaid+ was creating a Roadster 2-like situation. And given the resources and attention the S/X refresh has demanded - hardly a hobby or fun side project for nostalgia’s sake - it is easy to see that Plaid+ would get de-prioritized further and further into the future. Halo cars are important but not at the expense of the high-volume vehicles, which are going to be (and have explicitly been stated to be) Tesla’s top priority moving forward.

Since when has 4680, Kato road and plaid been in the works ?

 

[Unpilot]

The head of Tesla Energy has left the company. Not sure if pushed out or not.

Damn...here comes another MARGIN CALL.....time to break out the open collar shirt cheap cologne and gold chains!

 

[StealthP3D]

Some of the Quad Squad filming Giga Texas believe they might be sending castings from Texas to Fremont. This could explain the increased amount of castings seen but exactly why and which car the castings are made for I haven't heard anything about.

Based on how they are stacked along the fence line, my first inclination is to assume they are waiting to be recycled.

 

[JRP3]

That seems like a problem if they announced something and put it up on the configurator without figuring out how to build it first.

Yes I agree. My concern is the 4680's are not progressing as well as projected and/or the structural battery pack isn't.

 

[Krugerrand]

lol imagine getting mad at a guy for speculating about the powertrain of the $150,000 car he ordered. How DARE he!

Dude, I didn’t say you couldn’t speculate. You claimed we are ALL FORCED to speculate. I merely pointed out to you that it’s actually a PERSONAL CHOICE.

You giving me a disagree and carrying on with the passive aggressive sarcasm just proves my point. You are quite specifically choosing to have your panties in a knot. That, of course is your right, but don’t dare tell me or everyone else how we’re being forced to speculate. It’s a lie.

 

[jkirkwood001]

...My assumption is the Model 3 will move to front and rear single castings and structural pack after substantial Model Y production moves to Austin. Allows Model Y line in Fremont to go offline and new Model 3 line to support new version to be built. Then start migrating existing Model 3 lines.

Y line(s) move to Austin
Y line is converted to new 3 line
old 3 line is shut down and converted to new 3 line
old 3 line is shut down and converted to new 3 line...Rinse and repeat until all lines converted.
If Y continues production in Fremont as well as Austin then start converting them as well as Austin ramps

Honestly at that point does it really matter if the Model S is the longest range Tesla? Typically with most cars the best mileage is the smaller cars. People expect that.

Wow, what a lot of work ($) for not a lot of impact to majority of buyers, nor financial savings. Cheaper to implement 4680 in new platforms. Elon said this in an interview last year (the German one?) "it costs a lot to interrupt a working production line for an 'operational' improvement" (I'm paraphrasing). As I recall he'd been asked if they would convert the Model 3 to single casting rear like the Model Y - not gunna do it.

 

[StealthP3D]

The waiting list for the LR refresh is ridiculously long. Shouldn't Tesla focus on pumping those out? I can't imagine the Plaid and plaid+ orders combined being all that great. Focusing so much selling Plaid right now by pulling crazy demand levers such as cancelling even better products seem odd.

When a well run company does stuff that doesn't make sense to you, it's wise to assume that you don't understand the particulars as well those who make the decisions. In fact, I'm sure of this.

 

[JRP3]

Smaller cars have tended to always get better mileage than bigger cars, all other stuffs being equal.

That's ICE thinking: Mileage= smaller, lighter, less power, more efficiency, cheaper. "Range" doesn't matter because you can fill up in 5 minutes anywhere.

EV thinking: Range= larger battery pack, more power, expensive. "Range" does matter, range has a value in EV's that it does not in an ICE for obvious reasons.

Until energy density increases and cost decreases to some level you can't use ICE thinking and apply it to EVs.

 

[JusRelax]

4680’s should have 20% better charging capability than existing 2170’s.

From Battery Day: 6X Power / 5X Energy = 1.2X Power Density.

However if they can apply tabless and other improvements to 18650’s or 2170’s, those should have even better power characteristics than 4680’s albeit more expensive and possibly less energy dense.

As I understand it, the 4680 cell would be a detriment to charging speeds (and high power usage) without the tabless technology. The tabless technology is needed to dissipate enough heat from the cell to make it viable.

Someone please correct me if my understanding is incorrect.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

While Tesla/Elon continues to create confusion by their actions and change ups which like everyone else, is frustrating to me.....the concerns about 4680 Cell production seems pretty illogical. Seems like people letting emotions get the better of themselves instead of looking at the facts from the past 5 months which are:

- On CC, Tesla head of battery openly stated they're hitting their target yields and that they've proven out every step of the process outlined on Battery day and that he's feeling confident.
- Kato facility has been packed pretty much on a daily basis
- Elon openly stating both Austin and Berlin Y's will both use 4680 Cells and also reiterating that both gigafactories will start production this year
- Teslas recently put the battery cell building construction parts of the Austin and Berlin gigafactories into full construction.

The last point is probably the most blatant piece of evidence for 4680 Cell production going according to plan. They wouldn't be fast tracking those battery cell buildings (especially how fast the Austin one went up) if they hadn't fully vetted the process. I really don't know how anyone can look past those facts and get themselves worried that 4680 Cell production is going badly. Seems like an awful lot of mental gymnastics to get to that conclusion when the simple logical conclusion is that they managed to increase the range of the Plaid enough to where they didn't feel the Plaid + was necessary and the complexities with it (in terms of the production line). I'm still very much expecting a range boost for the Plaid S, maybe not to 500 miles but some sort of increase. I do think the price gap between the LR and the Plaid is way too much for just the acceleration...especially when you're getting less range.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

All these discussions are welcomed and healthy....but let's not forget who lands rockets for a living

 

[Curt Renz]

From my brokerage's newsfeed:

Video Shows Tesla's Gigafactory Texas Model Y Machinery Is Already Operational​

11:17 am ET June 7, 2021 (Benzinga) Print
Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Gigafactory Texas is the company's latest vehicle production factory. It is supposed to begin production later this year of Tesla's Model Y, followed by the Cybertruck and Tesla Semi.

And now it appears Tesla's factory is already hard at work.

Teslarati shared a video from Twitter showing multiple pieces of machinery inside Gigafactory whirring away. The equipment is most likely in an initial testing phase as Tesla gets ready to start production.

Although the factory is also still under construction, Tesla could begin vehicle production while other areas of the factory are built.

GREAT NEWS!!
Video found by @DriveTeslaca was taken inside of Tesla Giga Texas & shows that testing has likely begun for the model Y production line robots! (I’ve edited it to slow it down, showing there are multiple robots in this area) @elonmusk @JohnnaCrider1 @ResidentSponge pic.twitter.com/6qE1K6sbyr
— Tesla Owners of Austin (@AustinTeslaClub) June 7, 2021

In May, hundreds of Model Y front castings were seen piled outside of Gigafactory Texas. This latest video adds to the evidence Tesla is aggressively pushing its schedule to begin Model Y production at Gigafactory Texas as soon as possible. It needs to do so if it wants to meet demand, as all of quarter two inventory was sold out early.