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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You need to check the scale on your chart: the NASDAQ-100 was down 0.4% by 11:15 am, while TLSA was down 3.0% (that's 7.5x macros):

View attachment 670916

Tell me again how we're "following" macros.

#manipulation

Looks like some immortal words of Benjamin Graham need amending for our times:

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine” day-to-day, however, it is a shell game.
 
In other FW news, my 2021 M3 is just got 2021.4.18.2 (aka cabin monitoring) and Tesla FW tracker suggests a very fast rollout, which suggests that maybe we see features announced Thursday to take advantage of it like insurance in WA State? Here's to hoping!
I just downloaded that update with cabin monitoring. Nose picking has been cut in half.
 
Some of these cryptocurrency types seem to think we're going to abandon government issued currency and switch to bitcoin as the medium of exchange. That's preposterous. Bitcoin is not a viable currency replacement because there is only a fixed quantity, which cannot grow in response to the economy's need.

In economics, the relationship between price level, money supply, and economic output is given by PQ = MV, where P is an aggregate price level, Q is an aggregate quantity of transactions, M is the money supply, and V is the velocity of money. In a bitcoin-based economy, M is fixed, so as the economy grows (rising Q), the price level must decline or the money velocity must increase. However, and here's the big problem, a falling price level pushes down the velocity of money. When prices fall, the effective value of a unit of money rises, discouraging those who hold money from spending it in order to profit from the rising value of their money. A bitcoin-based economy would enter a death spiral of falling prices, declining commerce, and extreme concentration of wealth.

Dogecoin improves on bitcoin by allowing an increase in the number of coins over time. A dogecoin-based economy would suffer gold standard-like volatility and bouts of deflation, but at least it would at least avoid the death spiral of a bitcoin-based economy. But this also makes dogecoin a worse investment vehicle than bitcoin. Either way, the world would be stupid to adopt as currency something that makes the economy worse instead of better.

It's certainly possible for a digital coin to provide adequate long-term growth in the money supply, growth that responds to economic need. And indeed, such a coin could actually replace currency. The problem is any coin that's an actual viable currency replacement must also be a terrible investment vehicle.

The crypto world is trapped between a rock and a hard place. A cryptocurrency can either have adequate supply (good as a medium of exchange, bad as a medium for investing) or constrained supply (good investment, bad exchange). It inherently cannot be both. This paradox doesn't bode well for the long-term value of any of the current exchange traded cryptocurrencies.
 
An update on CT or Roadster for the Thursday event as “one more thing” would be great.
it would give a sense that 500+ mile range vehicles are still on the table and CT was supposedly “pencils down” a few months ago.
It would also take away from the vehicle being showcased. I don't expect a "one more thing" at this event.
 
CA Governor pitches $11.8B Climate Budget Bloomberg interview - lots of good info there including some real hope that we've turned the corner from a fight into collaboration towards sustainability energy and transportation.

 
Some of these cryptocurrency types seem to think we're going to abandon government issued currency and switch to bitcoin as the medium of exchange. That's preposterous. Bitcoin is not a viable currency replacement because there is only a fixed quantity, which cannot grow in response to the economy's need.

In economics, the relationship between price level, money supply, and economic output is given by PQ = MV, where P is an aggregate price level, Q is an aggregate quantity of transactions, M is the money supply, and V is the velocity of money. In a bitcoin-based economy, M is fixed, so as the economy grows (rising Q), the price level must decline or the money velocity must increase. However, and here's the big problem, a falling price level pushes down the velocity of money. When prices fall, the effective value of a unit of money rises, discouraging those who hold money from spending it in order to profit from the rising value of their money. A bitcoin-based economy would enter a death spiral of falling prices, declining commerce, and extreme concentration of wealth.

Dogecoin improves on bitcoin by allowing an increase in the number of coins over time. A dogecoin-based economy would suffer gold standard-like volatility and bouts of deflation, but at least it would at least avoid the death spiral of a bitcoin-based economy. But this also makes dogecoin a worse investment vehicle than bitcoin. Either way, the world would be stupid to adopt as currency something that makes the economy worse instead of better.

It's certainly possible for a digital coin to provide adequate long-term growth in the money supply, growth that responds to economic need. And indeed, such a coin could actually replace currency. The problem is any coin that's an actual viable currency replacement must also be a terrible investment vehicle.

The crypto world is trapped between a rock and a hard place. A cryptocurrency can either have adequate supply (good as a medium of exchange, bad as a medium for investing) or constrained supply (good investment, bad exchange). It inherently cannot be both. This paradox doesn't bode well for the long-term value of any of the current exchange traded cryptocurrencies.
You should look into the Terra ecosystem. Interview with Ark Invest on this POS (eco-friendly) blockchain founded by Stanford engineer and backed by Coinbase, Galaxy Digital, and Robinhood CEO - The Terra Blockchain with Do Kwon - ARK Podcast
 
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We will get some answers at the event..

What people are missing with the Plaid is the clue is in the name. The special part isn't the battery, it is the Plaid Drive which Elon described as "Almost Alien Technology". This is the first available car with that drive.

It will also be in the Roadster and the Plaid Cybertruck. The Plaid Cybertruck one option for people wanting 4680 cells.
The cells to be used in the Roadster are currently unknown,

The targets I think Tesla are trying to hit are;-
  • Test rides around the track will be exciting, memorable, and slightly scary,
  • Track performance and drag performance will smoke most/all other currently available production cars.
  • Autobahn performance including range at high speeds should be good.
Apart from aero-drag a key consideration is handling and efficiency at high speeds. Not needing to slow down as much for corners and low energy consumption / heat generation during high speed cruising.

I don't know if Tesla will hit the targets, but we will soon know
If you recall, it was initially supposed to be Battery + POWERTRAIN day, but then Elon said there was too much and stripped it down to a merely gobsmacking, industry destroying Battery alone day.

I’m hoping we get some of that Powertrain Day that they had to cut for time:)
 
If you recall, it was initially supposed to be Battery + POWERTRAIN day, but then Elon said there was too much and stripped it down to a merely gobsmacking, industry destroying Battery alone day.

I’m hoping we get some of that Powertrain Day that they had to cut for time:)

My impression is that there is a fair bit to talk about on the Powertrain, specifically the Plaid drive...

So I expect;-
  • A fairly detailed technical overview of Plaid drive.
  • A quick overview of other Model S features and specs.
  • Some footage of track runs for record track times.
  • Delivery event
  • Test rides.
Most of the YouTube videos will be reactions to test rides, as usual, the media will mostly ignore the technical stuff.
 
Just had a thought on all the $BTC boomers or $TSLAQ defectors that went and cancelled their cybertruck orders due to their newly discovered 'hate' for Elon.....Wouldn't they have been better off selling their reservation or simply just taking delivery and selling it at a profit if they were one of the 'early' birds? Figure they could have made at least a minimum of $3-$5k if they got in early enough, instead of just cancelling.
I think some of the early orders could be worth more than $10k. Anything that gets you a CT while the early part of the ramp is going on is worth a good deal. Once they hit 1000 a week then the premium might wear off. Some celebrities and multi millionaires may pay 20% premium easily to have the first one in their city. And I will do anything to get mine earlier. Fly. Get a PO box in another state. Pay extra sales taxes.
 
It would also take away from the vehicle being showcased. I don't expect a "one more thing" at this event.
Any “one more thing“ you would want to be something that doesn’t pull demand from the Plaid S (Tesla still has Plaid S as available for delivery in June, so obviously has plenty of spare production capacity at present) Maybe the semi or a new commercial van, possibly the final CT Design, ATV. would be awesome to see a model S plaid pulling in after completing a coast to coast FSD trip without any deactivations (outside of recharging stops).

I would be happy if it’s just all focused on Plaid S.