Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

本次召回范围内的车辆由于主动巡航控制系统问题，易造成驾驶员在以下情形误激活主动巡航功能：当车辆处于D挡，驾驶员再次拨动右侧控制杆换挡试图切位时；在车辆急转弯，驾驶员误触碰并拨动右侧控制杆时等。主动巡航控制被误激活后，如果车辆设置的巡航速度不是当前车速，且当前车速低于设定速度时，车辆会加速到设定速度，出现车辆速度突增情形，会影响驾驶员的预期并导致车辆操控误判，极端情况下可能导致车辆发生碰撞，存在安全隐患。

召回 is recall

They are just misinterpreting total recall because Elon is sending people on Mars soon.

 

[SO16]

ha ha very funny.

I know of alteast 3 people who have reserved S and have now paused from pulling the trigger on this yoke S. 2 of them already have P100Ds and the other drives a Mercedes.

All the people who lecture on how how it should be done, are simply missing the point. Public don't want relearn a muscle memory they have learnt over decades of driving. Not just the steering, but the buttons for turn signals - dumb & dumber. This is not about losing the wiper stalk that we use much much less frequently than a turn signal or steering.

Let them cancel. Their cars will be bought by someone else. There is lots of demand.

And just watch….there will be 3rd party steering wheel options coming if one is not provided by Tesla.

 

[SO16]

View attachment 678350

I remember Model S without a center console.

Elon told us we don't need one. Open airy feeling without one. You can store a handbag or briefcase there.

Aftermarket started making bank selling consoles.

Tesla then offered consoles as an option.

Over 90% of customers started opting for consoles.

Tesla made consoles standard.

And they may do the same with the steering wheel. But they didn’t do that with another display on the 3/Y yet.

 

[dww12]

Dunno, but... it will be a nice boost to Q2 revenues if they can put pedal-to-the-metal on high-dollar Model S deliveries

I think they are. It was April before I saw a MacheE IRL, I saw a Plaid yesterday.

 

[Nolimits]

Any predictions for SP this week? July is just around the corner. So far everything looks favorable. I am sure they will push that “recall” fud hard this week. I am thinking the heavy hitters will want to confirm the deliveries and profits (w/o credits and bitcoin shenanigans) prior to jumping in more?

 

[InTheShadows]

Yoke is going to result in lower S sales. Every forum and social media verdict is clear. Except a few die hard fans, everyone hates it. It will have material impact on sales, profit and margin and therefore on $TSLA.

If they had just restricted yoke to Plaid, that would have been a good decision. Idiotic move.

Just a sample:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408883038927220739

I haven’t crossed my hands over like that in decades. Once I got rid of my last non power steering vehicle I press my palm into the wheel at the 3 o’clock position and spin away. I watched my wife driving the other day and she does the same thing. I will miss the one hand at 1 o’clock position in town though.

maybe our steering habits are different though because we only ever drove manual transmissions until we got our Tesla’s.

 

[Singuy]

Yoke is going to result in lower S sales. Every forum and social media verdict is clear. Except a few die hard fans, everyone hates it. It will have material impact on sales, profit and margin and therefore on $TSLA.

If they had just restricted yoke to Plaid, that would have been a good decision. Idiotic move.

Just a sample:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408883038927220739

My biggest question is why Tesla haven't pushed out smart shift and auto signal to their entire fleet the last 2 years for training and feedback/data collection before doing all capacitive touch with no stalk. It's usually Teslas style to be "okay seems like 93% of people kept those features on, so let's get rid of the stalk"..vs what they are doing today.

 

[phantasms]

Plaid is an awesome car, but still has the same problem as previous S- too damn big.

Since they won't do a higher-than-P Model 3 I'm forced to keep driving 3 until the the new roadster is ready.

Added bonus- the spacex package solves the tire limitation issue.

Someone is not wrong on the internet.

 

[Jack6591]

I haven’t driven the yoke steering wheel, but l love the improved field of vision.

Life on the edge is dangerous, but the view is incredible.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Today (Sunday) is “Dark Helmet”’s day at Pikes Peak. Here's a video showing the testing:

 

[jw934]

Any predictions for SP this week? July is just around the corner. So far everything looks favorable. I am sure they will push that “recall” fud hard this week. I am thinking the heavy hitters will want to confirm the deliveries and profits (w/o credits and bitcoin shenanigans) prior to jumping in more?

Since the publication of the 153% YoY growth of Chinese NEV for Q1, NIO, XPEV and BYD have rocketed by as much 90%. Perhaps because Tesla is more international, and because 2020Q1 was not as horrible in sale for Tesla, recent $TSLA performance has lagged in the chart. I predict TSLA will follow their trends in the short term.


In chart below, TSLA chart is shown as the candles.

In Q4 2020, TSLA's rise also lagged these three companies by a few weeks. (I picked Sept 1, 2020 start date to coincide with the date XPEV got listed). Bear in mind that charts lie, and anyone can pick a different start date to tell a different story.

Here is one article describing the Q1 sale recovery in China that started the rise of Chinese EV stock around May 13:

Press Center - BEV Sales Undergo 153% YoY Increase in Newly Released Total NEV

 

[Tslynk67]

Part of the issue with the recall reporting is that "recall" itself is such a dated term that implies the need to physically "bring back" the vehicle. There needs to be a new term used industry wide for fixes that will happen OTA. "Virtual recall" or "not-a-recall" both seem more accurate.

Edit: CNBC actually does a passing job of highlighting that this is not-a-recall by using quotes around "recall" and clarifying what it means at the top of the article.
View attachment 677944
Faint praise for CNBC twice in two days. What is this world coming to?

 

[SarahsDad]

Today (Sunday) is “Dark Helmet”’s day at Pikes Peak. Here's a video showing the testing:

Can watch here - coverage is live now but start has been delayed due to snow/fog

 

[Knightshade]

ha ha very funny.

I know of alteast 3 people who have reserved S and have now paused from pulling the trigger on this yoke S. 2 of them already have P100Ds and the other drives a Mercedes.

All the people who lecture on how how it should be done, are simply missing the point. Public don't want relearn a muscle memory they have learnt over decades of driving. Not just the steering, but the buttons for turn signals - dumb & dumber. This is not about losing the wiper stalk that we use much much less frequently than a turn signal or steering.

There was also a decent sized contingent of folks who refused to give up their physical cell phone keyboards their muscle memory had gotten used to.

Didn't seem to hurt iPhone sales much in the long run though.


There'll always be reasons a particular product doesn't work for one or more groups of people (despite a few posters here insisting otherwise ) that doesn't mean it's a problem in need of fixing.

The Cybertruck is another good example- probably never going to Europe as is (a pretty large market) purely due to size-- Tesla will still sell as many as they can make for years and have demand for more though.

 

[Tslynk67]

Waiting for Elon to tweet ‘you’re holding it wrong!’

Edit: happy to see how it works. One less reason to wait for ordering a new Model S. Other than that the first ones will only arrive in Q1 2022 in Europe, and a lot can happen between now and then. E.g. the Cybertruck could be in production.

I was told my MSP might come Q3...

 

[Tslynk67]

Better yet. Tesla put in the round steering wheel going forward. Those with the yoke can put it on eBay for $10k.

Provide both and have an F1-style swappable mechanism...

 

[ZsoZso]

CNBC jumping on this with a headline that includes “recall” and the article itself mentioning sudden acceleration, spreading FUD again about Tesla’s accelerating by themselves.

Tesla to 'recall' nearly 300,000 China-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles

It is still user error even if someone accidently engages Autopilot and the car accelerates to the set speed (e.g. the speed limit).

I think in countries where regulators are like this, Tesla should just disable standard Autopilot all together. They don’t deserve this feature.

They could make TACC / AP activations require triple confirmation via touchscreen + buttons on wheel + phone-app, so it is still technically available, just pain in the backside to use

 

[goinfraftw]

Yeah, totally get it, I've mentored several folks who've had challenges and while I can only imagine yours, I feel confident you'll find your way as your words are coming from a good place.

To put this into an investment opinion, nearly ally tech peers thought I was absolutely insane to leave XBOX for Tesla in 2014. I was happy then and am happy now. But my way of thinking persists and everyone thinks I'm crazy to invest so much into solar with my new 32kW system. And I still have my TSLA shares thank you very much!

Everything is possible

 

[The Accountant]

So there was some talk about FCA not needing the EU pool with Tesla anymore a while back. Didn't hear much more about it. Maybe I've missed it but there seems to have been official confirmation about this a week or so ago.

With only Honda left in the Tesla pool it seems like the EU part of credits will be down significantly 2021. I know the total wasn't in Q1 so the Q2 number will be interesting.

FCA officially waves goodbye to its Tesla pool, latest EU data shows

Nice catch on the change in the pool.
I used to think the European credits were a big deal but I computed that it only amounted to about $347m per year or about $87m per Quarter.
See my past posting on this:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

With today's Electrek article providing another data point that Tesla is being inundated by orders, I pulled the trigger on a Model Y order to make sure it's here in plenty of time to surprise my wife on her birthday in several months. She's never even contemplated owning a Tesla or ridden in...

teslamotorsclub.com

I don't believe Tesla will lose all of the $87m per Qtr as Honda will continue to participate and there are other OEMs stuggling to meet target.
See Hyundai, Renault, VW, Ford-Volvo, Daimler in the April table below....all missing the target. These OEMs can join the Tesla pool as an option.
You can see that the FCA-Tesla-Honda pool was below target in April by 3 CO2 g/km (97 vs 94).
The fact of the matter is that not all OEMs will meet the target and they can pool with Tesla to save $ millions....and why not?

 

[SarahsDad]

Pikes peak hill climb today with Randy Pobst’s Model S Plaid has just been shortened due to snow/fog at the summit, cutting out the Bottomless Pit section where he crashed a Model 3 Performance last year.

He’s probably not too upset about that.

Potentially good PR if the Plaid does well today.