Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Ditto. Here's my story on why I'm here, and a thanks to all on TMC for the enlightenment!

I bought the earliest Model 3 car for FSD and it's associated AI. Then I loved the car, in that order, out of initial concern for the missing dash gauges. I got over that in about 1 day, probably distracted by the acceleration so much that nothing mattered anymore. (Here's an example where Ford kept the dash in place for their "conventional" followers, which only adds to production costs.)

Most people are in fear of new technology... blah blah... the S curve and all, but this is advanced, advanced technology and the public is simply not aware just how much of a leap in progress this vehicle and FSD actually represents. I put it beyond MIT or Stanford brilliance, for it's execution especially. These are more like peak human creation times... my first cool (Ontario) Science Center, all over again!

The best thing about being on TMC for years is how much I've learned from everyone else. Mostly about the truths that we don't get to see on TV anymore. As a result, there were two unexpected outcomes: 1. I cared more about the planet, and 2. We were so screwed by oil and Auto, from day one of last century. I personally changed a lot of starters, alternators, and water pumps in my time, but to find out that's where their profits were, it was planned, and by doing so made in nearly impossible for ANYONE entering the Auto industry, ever. Until Tesla did it finally after what... 100 years?

This new information revealed the ongoing money battle I find myself in today. Competitors trying to slow Tesla way down financially with FUD and outright lies, to put them out of business. Luckily, I had just taken control of my 401K, freshly rolled out of Chase Bank (where they thought I was a fool of course for exiting).

You know what's really crazy? This is the only forum I've ever really used my whole life. I dabbled in a couple, but didn't understand the remarks and crazies. I literally had to relearn society within this format, and among the elites here. I suck at Facebook, Instagram, Twitter. But honestly, I don't know if that would help - except I do follow Elon on twitter, and a few leakers, a couple of YouTube rising stars, and that's it. I'm more a face to face or call me person - so this has been quite the experience. So I take this moment to thank all of you sharing and exchanging ideas here. I do look forward to meeting everyone someday.

And in some ways, I even understand the FUD by recognizing the impact on economies and families that will suffer through the transition, while others come out ahead. Whether paid FUD or just comments out of fear, I hear you too. But it really doesn't justify letting up considering the storms ahead. I can only hope you understand as well, my anger is resolved in this room, every. single. day. The mission makes more sense now, gave me a sense of purpose. But not only that, I'm learning what makes a company fail and succeed. I'm a Technologist not an Accountant or Investor... or so I thought. Stick around, these are great life lessons in real-time!

And look at that, the stock returns again. Congrats to anyone picked up some chairs at the height of this fear bubble we're in right now.

1.) Not a chance we’ll meet.
2.) It’s muddled thinking being concerned for how the transition effects people in the old industry. We’re all adults and responsible for the choices we make in life. The LOGICAL choice going forward is to prepare and position oneself to be of value in the new industry. It’s really just that simple. Excuses of I’m too old to learn or it means I have to move or the myriad of other reasons people can come up with to not try, stay stuck, play victim are endless. Zero sympathy from me if one chooses to keep their head stuck up the chocolate cake, they deserve what’s coming.

The sign says beware. You don’t beware, I look forward to the You Tube video of apple pie hitting the fan.

 

[SOULPEDL]

(This may be a little OT but I think this is a critical information to understand in regards to valuing the growth/value of the network. )

Yes. I try to point this out to as much as possible. As residential customers we almost never deal with KW/demand charges. I'm only familiar with them because I work in the utility industry. If Tesla sells power to third parties then the per kWh fee needs to include an estimate for what the peak demand charge would be for that station. To your example, N chargers * 250KW * Demand Charge.

A quick example. 50 stall SC station with 250KW chargers. (this is equivalent to something like a factory). Utility rates can range from simple to maddingly complex so I'll use an easy example of a blended KW rate close to national average of $10 per KW. This is charged at the PEAK usage, so if at some point in the month all 50 stalls were occupied, that is the pricing used for all energy over that period. It doesn't matter if the station usually only has 20 stalls full or not, if you hit that peak that's what you pay. So our 50 stall station might have a monthly Demand charge of $125k (plus tax) added in to the standard kWh cost. A place with expensive energy like CA could be double or triple that amount. And then don't forget maintenance, cost to bill/collect/service customers, real estate rentals etc. and we are looking at a lot of cash.

A little birb told me that he was able to see some actual bills from some Tesla superchargers and the demand component was a significant piece of the pie. I'd be happy to help with data/questions for any such effort to estimate possible margins. My gut feeling without much research is that I do not expect superchargers to ever be a major profit driver. I would be happy if Tesla just breaks even on the whole thing.

Unless they introduce MegaPacks at SuperChargers to buffer the demand, then negotiate a new and steady rate for the consumer while helping to ease peaker loads.

I believe there is a lot of money to be made here, but not until this market priming is complete. I believe lowest cost entry to EVs is the priority, and why it's presented at point of sale as the default in the form of a fuel savings. We still need that for a bit longer.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm curious. Is there a minimum stock price required by the S&P to remain in it ?

ie, If Tesla did an (admittedly unlikely) 65:1 Split / Share Dividend at a $650 Stock price, the stock Price would be $10 post split.

Wondering if it is possible to do while still remaining in the S&P, and what would prevent Tesla from doing such a thing.

Sure would make the shorties dance.

I will not allow such a split. I don’t understand all the symbols and letters my calculator would spit out.

 

[Singuy]

I’ve disappointed with everyone’s willingness to perform and accept napkin math for supercharger costs. Don’t take this personally, as everyone seems to do it. Unfortunately, I believe that SC costs are MUCH higher than most estimate. Nearly all SC are driven by the grid which means you pay what the local utility requires (and they are pirates). Supplying 250kW times N stalls during a busy time is a HUGE current/service draw with, very likely, HUGE demand fees. Also, since all these SC are not centralized, but distributed by necessity, if they were to benefit from solar and/or battery storage, it will likely be localized to each SC. And those powerwalls that we the people buy for $7.5K, they are only 14kWh each, so you’d need 5-6 of them to store the equivalent of ONE LR M3/MY. Powerpacks store ~20X that of powerwall, but cost ~20X more. Also, 1 powerpack still only discharges at 150kW max. These capital investments for solar and battery storage at SCs are HUGE.

Look, I’m NOT saying SC profit model is “broken”, rather MUCH more complicated than I’ve seen anyone estimate. Many people think that the SC model becomes similar to gas stations, but I disagree. Gas stations NEVER had to compete with what the average customer could refuel for at home. If I can pay $0.13/kWh at home (lowest TOU), I won’t pay $0.75/kWh at a SC unless I have to. I am only a SC customer, rarely, during extended travel. I was always a gas station customer. Gas stations didn’t have home competition. I think SC will never scale to the quantity or profitability of gas stations due to this, IMO.

I would like to throw the gauntlet out to the detailed data miners & analysts that read this thread (there are many )…..put together a rough analysis of these costs, including solar, battery storage and grid demand charges to guesstimate the required cost per kWh to see what margins are possible.

This is where I got some of my powerpack/powerwall specs/costs

Someone should ask Elon on Say about SC margins and how opening the network would affect cash flow.

 

[Nocturnal]

Unless they introduce MegaPacks at SuperChargers to buffer the demand, then negotiate a new and steady rate for the consumer while helping to ease peaker loads.

I believe there is a lot of money to be made here, but not until this market priming is complete. I believe lowest cost entry to EVs is the priority, and why it's presented at point of sale as the default in the form of a fuel savings. We still need that for a bit longer.

Batteries would definitely help and of course large customers can always negotiate directly with utilities. Tesla can also help by using more real time pricing, but customers don't always appreciate that. Avoiding peak demand times will be critical in keeping costs down. That timeframe is usually in the 4-8pm range. Hypothetically, demand charges for a 3 stall 150kw charger without a ton of use might approach half the total bill. Just hypothetically of course.

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't agree with this. Tesla has enough cash to expand already. And the supercharger network is an excellent marketing tool.

I also fear that other car brands will run into charging problems since no cars charging systems are built the same. So it might backfire. Since it would be a never ending pain in the butt for Tesla to adjust their systems to all the different car models.

If Tesla ever open the Supercharger network to non-Tesla vehicles, then a minimum technical requirement of access would need to include the right and the ability for Tesla to implement an OTA update to the non-Tesla fleet, in such a way that Tesla can ensure trouble-free Supercharger interfacing at all times. That would allow Tesla to keep all the fleet that might access the superchargers in dynamic alignment with whatever evolutions take place on the Supercharger network, with Tesla controlling the situation.

There are other technical requirements I would write in addition to this, but that is a minimum. And of course there would be commercial requirements as well.

I don't expect any other manufacturer would be prepared to agree to that. Right now I don't think any other manufacturer is even capable of agreeing to that so it is a moot point for the time being.

 

[inconel]

If Tesla ever open the Supercharger network to non-Tesla vehicles, then a minimum technical requirement of access would need to include the right and the ability for Tesla to implement an OTA update to the non-Tesla fleet, in such a way that Tesla can ensure trouble-free Supercharger interfacing at all times. That would allow Tesla to keep all the fleet that might access the superchargers in dynamic alignment with whatever evolutions take place on the Supercharger network, with Tesla controlling the situation.

There are other technical requirements I would write in addition to this, but that is a minimum. And of course there would be commercial requirements as well.

I don't expect any other manufacturer would be prepared to agree to that. Right now I don't think any other manufacturer is even capable of agreeing to that so it is a moot point for the time being.

But but...isn't VW the first and only manufacturer with OTA?

 

[ZeApelido]

Well folk I decided to go taunt Greenspan and Gordon Johnson and other TSLAQ on Twitter. So I'm probably wasting the rest of my day.

Wish me luck!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412850560475095041

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I will not allow such a split. I don’t understand all the symbols and letters my calculator would spit out.

You made me realize I have an irrational fear now that Tesla would split with an odd ratio. 5:1, 10:1, etc I can handle but a ratio like 13:3 would change my share count in such a way as to force me to buy additional shares so I could once again be at a base ten figure. 13:3 makes my eye twitch.

 

[Tslynk67]

Since I plan on living off my portfolio AND I plan on living for a long, long time a stock split would ease the pain of selling the odd share here and there.

Why sell shares? Sell calls...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I will not allow such a split. I don’t understand all the symbols and letters my calculator would spit out.

So if they proceeded with that split...Elon would own 69,420,0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 shares of $TSLA....id vote yes just for the LOL's and Memes.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well folk I decided to go taunt Greenspan and Gordon Johnson and other TSLAQ on Twitter. So I'm probably wasting the rest of my day.

Wish me luck!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412850560475095041

Did Gordo know any answers at any point? The comedy never ends with that

 

[Unpilot]

Why sell shares? Sell calls...

Hmm...yeah...but...well...maybe.

 

[mrdoubleb]

He says ‘Exciting~‘ so can’t see these as that?

Thank God this thread absolutely does not have the habit of reading way too much into tweets!

Joking aside, I have only ever seen this account tweet about Tesla China production and delivery numbers - they are the one who reported on the -16% figure that was later corrected to -11%. I think they are eagerly waiting for the official data to validate their numbers (and thus brand them as an oracle in the Tesla Twitterverse).

Honestly, if his info checks out it could put further negative pressure on the SP as the media will blow it up. If they would be honest though, they would report it as a victory as it is way better than the 50% drop they were all reporting on back in May.

 

[goinfraftw]

Hi Q - When Tesla ran up in 2020, I paid off all of my debt first (a mortgage and the Model 3 loan) and I’m diversifying towards a 80-20 portfolio strategy (supplemented with real estate and passive index fund investing) after it being 92-8.

Does this sound like a good strategy from an investment portfolio allocation perspective?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Well, at this rate we're going to get a huge pop on the earnings report...all the way to $685.

 

[inconel]

Well folk I decided to go taunt Greenspan and Gordon Johnson and other TSLAQ on Twitter. So I'm probably wasting the rest of my day.

Wish me luck!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412850560475095041

The tweet from Elon is actually a very profound revelation. If true the only logical implication is that not all of Tesla production will be part of this universe.

 

[2daMoon]

I'm curious. Is there a minimum stock price required by the S&P to remain in it ?

ie, If Tesla did an (admittedly unlikely) 65:1 Split / Share Dividend at a $650 Stock price, the stock Price would be $10 post split.

Wondering if it is possible to do while still remaining in the S&P, and what would prevent Tesla from doing such a thing.

Sure would make the shorties dance.

They might want to keep some dry powder (easily divisible SP) to repeat the short purge periodically.

However, another aspect to consider is how folks have grown accustomed to TSLA SP being in the hundreds. It might not take long for the price to rise, as it will look very good to the casual investor's muscle memory of what TSLA is "worth."

Stonks like TSLA are the outliers in the realm of big moves over short time periods. I wonder if there is a psychological aspect that would be in play if someone has been watching and didn't want to spend six hundred on a share but would buy 60 ten dollar shares without any concern?

 

[Nocturnal]

Hi Q - When Tesla ran up in 2020, I paid off all of my debt first (a mortgage and the Model 3 loan) and I’m diversifying towards a 80-20 portfolio strategy (supplemented with real estate and passive index fund investing) after it being 92-8.

Does this sound like a good strategy from an investment portfolio allocation perspective?

Might try this thread.

How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

Regarding retirement, in the sense that you can do anything you want, how much money/how many years of expenses do we feel like a good place to start if we hate/love our job?

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Famous last words, but...can't let a market sale go to waste, this close to earnings.

Not touching my shares, so picked up some October 800 calls, by way of couch cushioning.

Not advice.