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I think CPCA numbers are coming out tomorrow, so they are just probably referencing that.

They responded that it was not related to June numbers from CPCA
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Forward Observing

Nothing to see here, feel free to move on. Just my perspective from the new to us Dragons View.

My Toyota Tacoma, but wait I live in Olympia not Tacoma; okay, it required its 20K service that I finally got around to at 22K. Just the “facts mam,” said officer Friday.

Last week as I drove onto the lot, it was extremely obvious the newbi’s were in, well, short supply. This dealership has moved three times since I moved here back in August 1999. Each time new and expanded buildings and properties.

Since 1975, my wife and I have purchased at least eight new Toyota’s.

Because our current Tacoma had an issue with its aftermarket item, we were suggested to take it down south for their opinion and warranty. I‘ve gotten one too many lectures lately, so yes, I lost myseniorperks all over the manager. This a perfect storm blowing a hole the size of texas thru the MajorBS of dealership advantage over direct sales. But not my bottom line story.

Traditional auto dealerships love acres of new cars waiting for you to drive off the lot. But there are limited choices now, that are not missing keys, but computer chips. I did not see tons of sales people waiting like flytraps, I did not see cars lined up for no schedule lubes. There was a lineup of people wanting to take a bit out of the manager:) I passed on the line, and requested he call me when he got time ~ I had a forty-five minute drive ahead of me.

The manager of course wanted to know how he could make things right by me ~ he sent me an email, at my request, stating that his dealership would front the troubleshooting in Oly, and provide transportation from Oly and return. What he can never correct with me is the sour taste I have acquired as a customer, long time customer, of Toyota. That is my bottom line ~ never buying another Toyota.

* * *

Last week, pre-fourth I read about Rivian. Cool truck, but limited company scope and partially funded by Ford or was at some point (expert input welcome). I went through the app selecting the parts I would like to build my version. The price tag was really close to what I might expect of the cybertruck of my choice ~ just minus all the camping capabilities. I watched the Long Way series where they used electric motorcycles and the pit crew drove two prototype Rivian‘s. If they deliver to your home, that’s cool, but not sure how they’ll handle maintenance. In 2017, we opted to buy TSLA stock instead of maintenance package for our Model X, I think that paid off?

I also looked into the Ford 150. I had recently parked near one, still no distinguishing look, compared to Cybertruck or Rivian. But now, I have an idea of what it looks like. Bottom line, I went to a Ford dealership to see if I could plug in my choices of a e150. Sorry, not much I can offer. If you have a better link, it would be fun just look through it and dream.

The really fun part was a TV commercial touting their next generation family and commercial pickups by, you guessed it, Toyota. All fossil fuel line up. Not even a battery pack with wheels like Chevy. Even with stretching my imagination, it is hard to visualize a stretched Prius with a truck bed. Aha yes, maybe like the old El Camino ~ more car than truck; but still fossil fuel. FYI ~ I speed dial thru commercials or mute. Drives the poor GrandPups nuts:)

* * *

Still, the only competitor is fossil fuel.

While I say, “I do not care what the cost” I’ll move forward into solar power, and electric vehicles; I must confess ~ I still ask for my military discount:)
 
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Tesla seems to have chosen to do something unusual with Shanghai production/shipping. There's huge unfilled demand in much of Europe, even with large numbers of deliveries (TM3 top in several countries car sales irrespective of fuel type, lack of SR+ in UK & elsewhere) and now expected deliveries quoted as November (from August).

However, indications are that the ships needed & expected for Europe haven't appeared. It's hard to know, as very busy ports, covid issues too.

I've got a few theories (as have many others), but nothing convincing. I think overall, Tesla will be supplying more "local" customers, inside China (lease, taxis, smaller cities), nearby countries (existing, growing or new markets), RHD markets (Hong Kong). Waiting to find out more, overall I think it's very positive - it feels to me like some kind of 4D chess move
Long delays might be partly due to Fremont Panasonic vs Shanghai LG - 2021 Shipping Movements

However, the post/reply suggests that the Shanghai LG ones are also going fast & UK gets the China LG anyway. Probably a series of reasons. Shortage of demand isn't one of them in my view. I look forward to next China numbers (if reliable)

Edit to/too
 
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Not Tesla but Nvidia announced their intention to do a stock split at their AGM, subject to shareholder approval. I could see Tesla doing something similar when the date for the AGM is announced including items up for vote, ie increase in shares for a stock split.

NVIDIA Announces Four-for-One Stock Split, Pending Stockholder Approval at Annual Meeting Set for June 3

This was on May 21 when Nvidia was trading just under $600, they've since shot up to well over $800.

MUCH appreciated for the clarification with real world example- so does seem like announcing a split conditional on approval is ok regulatorily speaking
 
Not too much salt. I believe this person has a source that works at Tesla Shanghai. Likely a lower level associate.
Their predictions are usually very close but sometimes slighty off indicating that the source gets information periodically.
So I see it as a lower level associate who does not have direct access to information daily but gets information from secondary meetings or at the water cooler.
What’s your view on the Twitter handle’s clain on Q2 China sales, how far off do you think it is?
 
What’s your view on the Twitter handle’s clain on Q2 China sales, how far off do you think it is?
I took their estimate as accurate. The 27,900 number in yellow below is what they implied when they stated 11% decrease in local China sales vs Q1.
The CPCA reports the number tomorrow. We will see if Tesla_China_Analyst is accurate or not. Look for a 28k number.

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So I have almost replied to this tweet, but then I realized it is pointless. We all know Plainsite is not an honest actor, some white knight fighting for the truth corporations trying to hide, but FUD Factory central, a short seller with an agenda. But it is still interesting to see just how stupid they think people are and how they manipulate by omission. Not going to debate the validity of their data as I have no way to double check, but notice the other tweet referenced in their new post.
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In the old tweet from 2019 they have obtained records for 2017 & 2018 for every manufacturer - that's how they have Tesla registration data as well - and they now say Tesla was actually down in 2020 compared to 2018. But this time they are not talking about other manufacturers and how they have done in comparison. I mean it's not like some major global event has set back car sales in 2020 for the entire industry, explaining a drop like that, right? While Tesla still managed to grow overall sales in 2020, that went along with a global expansion of Model 3 deliveries starting in February 2019, so it is entirely possible, that some specific markets were down in the year of the pandemic compared to two years ago. Not to mention 2018 was the start of volume Model 3 deliveries in California, with 2 years of pent-up demand.

And I haven't even started talking about how ridiculous 20 quality disputes are from 70-80k annual deliveries in the state, that's like 0.03%. Again, it would be awesome to know what is the percentage of such disputes for BMW, Mercedes, Audi, etc. Without that how do you know if this is a lot, or nothing at all?

I just realized Aaron Greenspan is from Cleveland.

I am from Cleveland.

This is the clearest division of good vs. evil in the history of mankind.
 
I'm pretty excited about them opening it up to other EVs. They can charge a higher rate for non Teslas and use that cash to grow faster. Once the world is 100% EV, it'll be a huge source of steady earnings (especially if they reduce their costs by installing solar panels at the supercharger stations).

Some napkin math:
  • ~1.5 Billion cars worldwide now, let's assume 2 Billion EVs in 2040
  • Assuming 30% of them use superchargers twice a month
  • Assuming $10 per charge at 50% profit margin, that is $30 per quarter
  • = 18 Billion in earnings per quarter
That is 25x Q1's earnings, just for superchargers

I'm sure those numbers are way off, tons of assumptions there, but it seems promising

I don't agree with this. Tesla has enough cash to expand already. And the supercharger network is an excellent marketing tool.

I also fear that other car brands will run into charging problems since no cars charging systems are built the same. So it might backfire. Since it would be a never ending pain in the butt for Tesla to adjust their systems to all the different car models.
 
I don't agree with this. Tesla has enough cash to expand already. And the supercharger network is an excellent marketing tool.

I also fear that other car brands will run into charging problems since no cars charging systems are built the same. So it might backfire. Since it would be a never ending pain in the butt for Tesla to adjust their systems to all the different car models.
It will be up to the other car manufacturers to make their cars compliant with Tesla (e.g. an adapter).
 
I don't agree with this. Tesla has enough cash to expand already. And the supercharger network is an excellent marketing tool.

I also fear that other car brands will run into charging problems since no cars charging systems are built the same. So it might backfire. Since it would be a never ending pain in the butt for Tesla to adjust their systems to all the different car models.
They just need to say "this is our system, you can license it for X or have your customers use our phone app and pay more per charge" and leave it at that. It will probably just be CCS but you still need software for the handshake.
I just realized Aaron Greenspan is from Cleveland.

I am from Cleveland.

This is the clearest division of good vs. evil in the history of mankind.
I spent three winters there one year. Good food town.
 
I'm not actually sure they CAN announce a stock split that would involve issuing shares that are not authorized to be issued- what (surprisingly little) I've seen written on the topic suggests you can not legally have a split involving shares that aren't already authorized to be issued.

But I'd certainly be happy to see anyone with evidence otherwise present it.

Nothing prevents Tesla from announcing their intention to split the shares, pending shareholder approval.

Shareholder approval is just a formality as there is no way shareholders would vote against issuing more shares if the purpose of those shares were simply to split existing shares. It's a shoe-in.
 
It will be up to the other car manufacturers to make their cars compliant with Tesla (e.g. an adapter).

They just need to say "this is our system, you can license it for X or have your customers use our phone app and pay more per charge" and leave it at that. It will probably just be CCS but you still need software for the handshake.

I spent three winters there one year. Good food town.

That is basically how the 3rd party charger networks in Europe work right now. Chargers are made with standard CCS2 plugs. And car manufacturers make their cars CCS2 compliant.

My Tesla is another CCS2 compliant car. And I often get into trouble when trying 3rd party chargers.

Teslabjørn did too in one of his recent videos where he drove a VW ID.4 - a brand new car which should have all the latest updates necessary to be CCS2 compliant.

When I can't charge my car I do not really know who is at fault - the charger or my car. But I always blame the charger. And believe Tesla would be blamed if a VW ID.4 failed to use a supercharger.